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mtgoxlive looks like a lie detector of someone having a heart attack.
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From $14 to $12.75, post pause... wtf?
Yes. Honestly, wtf? Someone explain. Someone put in a big order. It pushed the prices pretty high. A bunch of sellers think $13 is way better than the $11 they just paid and sell. We are going to bounce for a good while. Probably land in the middle. |
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Just before Mt. Gox went down, their market depth looked like this (at 1413).  . That matches the order book - almost no bids. Yet the price was going up to 14 at that point, which is backwards. Did their incoming payment system break down, or what? This is either incompetence or manipulation. That just indicates that a single person (or a few people) put in a big buy order. I would have too if I had the money. The bids take time to catch up, or it bounces back down a little. It isn't necessarily manipulation. But it could be. Most likely, someone just anticipated a rally and decided to go all in on it, fueling it in the beginning. That isn't really manipulation in my book, just a gamble. If the rally doesn't catch on, he loses money, if it does catch, he got a bunch of bitcoins at a good price. I have no idea what it'll do after the pause. |
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So.. How about the one at $14, which is holding the price back now?
There isn't anything holding it at $14, trading is halted. Don't know why. And I have no idea what'll happen when it resumes. |
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LOL, not the midnight wake up call you want. |
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this message was on the left side all day long.
i don't think it is paused as i am still able to buy and sell.
I am able to put in orders, but they aren't getting executed. They are just in queue. And the price hasn't moved an iota in the last 15 minutes. Definitely paused. |
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Some good deals right now. 4 bitcoins selling under $12.50 when mt gox is at $14. I guess no one has cash there yet.
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Paused while going up but not while going down...  It was paused while going down a few days ago. |
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They have a message saying rampant abuse and blocked ips.
scammers should find a day job.
What does that even mean? |
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I love it how Tradehill follows Mt. Gox like a loyal puppy. Really, look at the stats.  There is no "market" in reality. Mt. Gox is the market because other exchanges don't seem to have a will of their own. This is of course natural. A bitcoin is worth what someone will pay for it. If someone is willing to pay X amount at mt gox, that makes bitcoins worth that amount everywhere. It is silly to think the two exchanges would have different prices. Then someone could make a killing buying at one and selling at the other. |
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Guess that last rise was too much for mt gox. They seem to have placed a halt to trading.
Does anyone know their halting policy? Or is it just when their servers start smoking?
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I think we've hit the bottom already at $11. This really saddens me because my dwolla money arrives tomorrow. I'm hoping it will hover here for a while. Long enough for be to buy at these great prices. But the fact that I feel these prices are great makes me think they will rise quickly, I can't be the only one.
Damn I hate being right. But I'm right so often.  |
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.. is bitcoin broken ?
Psychologically its very sick at the moment....question is....is it terminal? Answer: No. |
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@chodpaba
Wow, thanks for the higher resolution look. Very interesting. So it lags price by about three days, hmmm something to think about...
Well, it does over that time period anyways. I would not completely discount the possibility that it could be predictive, and would certainly pay attention to it if it diverges significantly. If it was AHEAD of price for 3 days it would make perfect sense, time for online discovery/investment of bitcoin. Do not understand the lagging... Perhaps higher prices tend to generate news and excitement. Imagine if you will Mr Average, he has about $2,000 in bitcoins. When prices go up, he is dreaming of becoming a millionaire googling bitcoin and reading every article on it, recommending it to all his friends who also google bitcoin. He is at best buy buying mining equipment, telling the employee helping him that it is for bitcoin mining. When the prices start going down, he hangs in for a few days, but quickly caves and sells most of his bitcoins. He doesn't recommend it to friends any more, he isn't buying equipment. Now that he isn't as invested, he isn't making bitcoin related searches as often. But, when prices rise again, he start googling to see if this time it is going to be sustained... and so on and so forth. |
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If the people-hoard-because-of-deflation camp is correct, we should start seeing more people spending their bitcoins, right? Or do people hoard their bitcoins when the value is rising and then just sell them when value goes down? No they hoard when the value goes down too. |
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I think we've hit the bottom already at $11. This really saddens me because my dwolla money arrives tomorrow. I'm hoping it will hover here for a while. Long enough for be to buy at these great prices. But the fact that I feel these prices are great makes me think they will rise quickly, I can't be the only one.
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The botnet would need many years for reaching a 50% probability of key collision.
Many millions of years. It's not impossible for a collision to be found, but there's not enough profit in it. Even if someone can find one address every hundred million years, all they get to spend is the balance of that one address. This equates to an averaged cost of fraud of way less than a millionth of a cent per transaction. It's not worth worrying about, when any simple trojan or social engineering attack is sure to net a few wallets. Many trillions of year. It is not possible. Highly improbable. Not impossible. Let's assume you can gen and encode 2500 pubkeys a second with known privkeys. Right now that's this many days to exhaust the entire key space: 536074487209797201035050856521703277098472151229817426108599925962560.8 or 1468697225232321098726166730196447334516362058163883359201643632774.1 years Now let's assume you can make that 50 times faster ... then it'd take this many days: 10721489744195944020701017130434065541969443024596348522171998519251.2 or 146869722523232109872616673019644733451636205816388335920164363277.4 years I believe you have a better chance of quantum tunneling a tennis ball through a wall by throwing it. At that point, I call it impossible. And it is for all intents and purposes. |
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@chodpaba
Wow, thanks for the higher resolution look. Very interesting. So it lags price by about three days, hmmm something to think about...
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The botnet would need many years for reaching a 50% probability of key collision.
Many millions of years. It's not impossible for a collision to be found, but there's not enough profit in it. Even if someone can find one address every hundred million years, all they get to spend is the balance of that one address. This equates to an averaged cost of fraud of way less than a millionth of a cent per transaction. It's not worth worrying about, when any simple trojan or social engineering attack is sure to net a few wallets. Many trillions of year. It is not possible. |
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Nobody called this today, it's in freefall at the moment with a huge order of almost 10,000 coins up around the $10 mark.
Actually, the 10.8 was predictable using google trends, and I called it late last night. http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26046.0Make sure you look at the second page where chodpaba has an excellent statistical analysis. Using his numbers, the latest google trends data gives a price of $10.8 |
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