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141  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 06, 2011, 09:50:26 PM
At the current ~240 % profitability (typical profit/cost of electricity), I wouldn't expect any long term decreases anytime soon.

At 1 BTC = ~$15, I'd expect it to increase up to roughly 4,900,000 - 5,000,000 before plateauing.



You have to factor in equipment and space too. Electricity isn't the only cost to mining. I would think it lower, 3.5 mil, perhaps. And most big mining operation are counting on the continued success of bitcoin to justify initial costs. I think the past months troubles have made some question that.
142  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin 3D Model - First Attempt on: July 06, 2011, 09:43:42 PM
I dislike the colors, but the model is obviously great. It feels like maybe it should be thicker, but maybe not. It has something of a sleekness to it that thin, which could be good.
143  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Difficulty didn't go down, after all: 1 564 057.45 (old 1 379 192.2882281, 1.13) on: July 06, 2011, 09:32:11 PM
The network did shrink a little for the first time. But because difficulty is often delayed (it averaged the entire last two weeks, which it not where the network currently is), the difficulty didn't go down. It might go down next time if there isn't a big rally between now and then, but I'd give 3:1 odds that there will be.



Notice it poking under 0 recently in the 3-day growth rate. Although, that might have something to do with the recent DDOS'es. In any case, I'm happy, good mining.
144  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin across the world on: July 06, 2011, 07:47:03 PM
Heh, I can see myself. All alone in hickville.
145  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: how long does a bitcoin transfer take ? on: July 06, 2011, 07:07:24 PM
You should be able to see that the transfer has been initiated immediately, from either the buyer or seller perspective. It will still be "unconfirmed" though. Unless you have reason to believe that the sender is a computer whiz trying to con you, that stage is good enough. The transfer will be "confirmed" within 1-3 hours. At that point, nothing in the world could undo it.

Make sure that both your client show the full block chain. The number of blocks the client shows in the bottom right of the window must be 135063 or greater. If that isn't the case you have to wait for the client to finish catch up to date. (this could take a while)
146  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MtGox trading bug? on: July 06, 2011, 07:01:28 PM
Yes, random pops like that have been happening, one time down to $2! No idea whether they are just a display issue, or whether actual trades are happening. There are other threads on the issue.
147  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Spruce Codes on: July 06, 2011, 09:03:53 AM
Man, even if I could figure out the code, I've got no idea how to import private keys. I should figure that out.
148  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Petition online retailers to use BitCoin? on: July 06, 2011, 07:51:42 AM
Do you think it would work if we had enough people to sign a petition or maybe even mail bombing online retailers to start accepting BitCoins? I mean, even Google creating an online wallet for BTC, maybe we an convince the other online services/stores to start accepting them as well?

Google is creating an online wallet for bitcoins? Why haven't I heard about this and where can I find more information. Sounds far too good to be true.
149  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin: SDR for the little guy. on: July 06, 2011, 05:55:21 AM
Now as for Bitcoin being the poor man's SDR, my assessment still stands.

Really? That is news to me. But I guess I'll take your work on it.

Read about it. Post your arguments how it's different.

Essentially, Bitcoin acts just as SDR does between currencies, just on a mundane scale.

So SDR was a decentralized, p2p, deflationary, pseudo-anonymous currency?

No, SDR is a supplementary foreign exchange reserve asset, which is the primary function of bitcoin today. A reserve asset.

All that other bullshit cruft is simply what gives BTC any credibility among its small number of users.

you know what else is a reserve asset? Gold. Gold is doing really well. So bitcoin will do really good.

Note: the previous statement was silly.

PS -- Guys, it is so easy to troll you on linguistics that I feel like doing it myself. Can we try to stay on topic.
150  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "I need BTC to do X" on: July 06, 2011, 05:42:35 AM
Play poker online in the US.
151  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners and early adopters, make it rain! on: July 06, 2011, 05:36:30 AM
Extremely well-written post, OP. Thank you for your salient message.

  But if Bitcoin does take off, whoever invests in the first professionally-run Bitcoin predictions market *will* become a very, very wealthy individual.  Of that there is no doubt.


What is a Bitcoin predictions market?

A prediction market, based on bitcoins, like intrade.
152  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin: SDR for the little guy. on: July 06, 2011, 04:59:16 AM
Now as for Bitcoin being the poor man's SDR, my assessment still stands.

Really? That is news to me. But I guess I'll take your work on it.

Read about it. Post your arguments how it's different.

Essentially, Bitcoin acts just as SDR does between currencies, just on a mundane scale.

So SDR was a decentralized, p2p, deflationary, pseudo-anonymous currency?
153  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Inflationary Bitcoin on: July 06, 2011, 04:31:01 AM
sorry, I didn't spend enough time on m though, doing other things here too.

I'm trying to find the words to express that the deflationary nature of bitcoins isn't such an asset over inflationary currencies, since both have perceived negative economic consequences.

When Bitcoins become so valuable that you have to start decimating them into ever smaller units, it seems like the entire psychology of the exchange medium becomes difficult to adhere to.

In effect, if inflation is bad for economic activity, deflation is equally bad for economic activity, though in different ways.

I'm not fleshing this out well enough, and maybe I'll have some more time later, but I guess essentially this is what I mean. There is no economic difference between having to print more money to keep the economy moving vs. having to decimate the entire exchange value over to keep the economy moving.

NP, you are right. There are pros and cons to both sides of the argument. No one can say one is better than the other. The traditional view is that deflationary investments, like rare commodities (gold), are better to store value in, and inflationary investments, like most currencies, are better at promoting economic growth.

There has never really been a by-design deflationary current before (at least, not to my knowledge). So in a way bitcoin is a new experiment. I feel like the deflationary nature of bitcoin has helped it get off the ground. I know I wouldn't have started mining, or looked at investing, if I didn't know that my share of the pie would be permanent. The deflationary nature lets me imagine a future where it is widely used, and very valuable. If it was inflationary, then wide use would just mean wide inflation, and my wealth would still be small.

Now we have to see if the deflationary nature of bitcoin can withstand a move into wider adoption. Some argue that people are less likely to spend because it is deflationary. And so it makes a crappy currency. They might have a point, but if that case it also encourages people to try to get their hands on bitcoins, which could encourage growth and business adoption.

There is no right or wrong answers in this debate, just different pros and cons. Bitcoin is an experiment in something new, and that is why a lot of people like it. If it were "the same", then it probably wouldn't have as much appeal to a lot of people.
154  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners calling it quits? on: July 06, 2011, 04:28:52 AM
Many from the states will quit, but there are still countries like China who is and will keep profiting from mining for a long while.

My question is, what would happen when mining eventually stops? What would become of BitCoin? Would it still be functional? I don't fully understand how this works.

If mining stopped completely there would be no bitcoin. Bitcoin is the mining. But even one person on a cpu could continue to mine. And my guess is that even if bitcoin fails completely, there will be a few people that keep mining for the next few decades.

I mean, I know people who's tamagotchi is still alive.
155  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin: SDR for the little guy. on: July 06, 2011, 04:25:34 AM
Now as for Bitcoin being the poor man's SDR, my assessment still stands.

Really? That is news to me. But I guess I'll take your work on it.
156  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Inflationary Bitcoin on: July 06, 2011, 04:22:43 AM
So if inflation encourages spending since your saved dollars are worth less over time, isn't that a good thing? And the people that spend it stupidly actually deserve to lose their money anyway? Because there's nothing keeping anyone from spending their dollars on something that will appreciate in value or otherwise bring them more dollars. That sounds like a positive economic stressor to me.

Deflationary currencies do not encourage spending, and they in every shape and form DISCOURAGE lending with ANY appreciable degree of risk association. This seems like a wholly negative economic stressor to me.

How have you gone from "they are the same thing", to "inflation is better" so quickly? The inflation vs deflation argument has been had many time. In the long run, bitcoins will be deflationary. Don't like it? Don't invest. It is an alternative option for people who do like it.
157  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin: SDR for the little guy. on: July 06, 2011, 04:20:29 AM
Very briefly,

decem- : by ten

-ate : to do, to make, to cause, or to act upon; to do something with


I understand language. I don't go by the definition you just found at Google.

Told you. Now he is hoping someone jumps on the "you don't use language the way it is defined?" argument, because that could go on forever and he'll get a kick out of it the whole way.
158  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CampBX Launch - Free Trades for All Bxlievers! on: July 06, 2011, 04:14:10 AM
When I went to sell a bitcoin, it gave me an estimate of how much I would get "after commission", and it was lower than the amount I asked. But I though commission was 0 until July 15th.

Also, I would like to be able to get my bitcoins back without paying the transaction fee, if I so choose.
159  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin: SDR for the little guy. on: July 06, 2011, 04:04:47 AM
Don't pick on his word usage. We know what he meant. He is just waiting to start up a different straw-man argument, don't feed him. He meant something like decimalize or decimalisation.
160  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Inflationary Bitcoin on: July 06, 2011, 03:58:50 AM
I think we've answered this one about every way it can be answered.
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