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181  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 25, 2015, 03:16:10 PM
I think "clients have instructions to add shares to their brokerage accts" means several days or a business week. Hang on to your butts, and place dump catching bids in the interim.

I think it could be quicker.  Based on the prior tweet "UPDATE: @BitcoinTrust's DTC process is now complete" I think it means DTC now has the shares registered on their system, in "Direct Registration" format.  Meaning it is tied to the individual investors. 

Now, the investors just need to instruct DTC to transfer their shares to a broker where it is then held in Street Name (i.e. the broker controls the shares for the benefit of the investor.)  Brokers can then trade the shares.

All of that is done electronically. 

Here is a general description of the DTC service:  http://www.dtcc.com/asset-services/securities-processing/direct-registration-system.aspx

And here are generic instructions to investors who have had their shares transferred to DRS / DTC, probably similar to what Grayscale has provided to its investors:  http://www-us.computershare.com/Content/download.asp?docId=%7BE034FEA2-973D-44FB-900E-0CABA3AB9B72%7D&cc=US&lang=es&bhjs=0&fla=0&theme=cpu

182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 15, 2015, 03:09:22 AM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
IIRC, the deadline for tax selling was Dec 31, 2014.  April 15 is only the deadline for filing the 2014 tax statements.  Isn't that so?
Nope, payments are due April 15th.
The payment for the 2014 taxes is due April 15, 2015, yes.  But the numbers that go in the 2014 tax statement - revenues, losses, deductibles, etc. -- must have happened between 2014-01-10 and 2014-12-31.   So, in particular, one cannot claim losses incurred on trades made this year.   Isn't that so?

Taxes due are based on 2014 income (mining, recipients of bitcoin as payments) and capital gains (traders / other spenders of bitcoin).

If there are taxes due for 2014, the payment deadline is April 15, 2015.  So this deadline could have caused some liquidation pressure.

Now, technically, you aren't supposed to just pay all of 2014 taxes in a lump sum on April 15, 2015, you should have been making estimated tax payments quarterly during the year.  So there shouldn't be a huge last minute need for cash.

Then again, miners / early adopters with big capital gains for whatever they sold during 2014 may not be well versed in US tax regulations, so could have come to last minute awareness of the need to pay their taxes.
183  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 30, 2015, 07:04:07 PM
What's all this about 24 words.  It's 25 on my system.

yeah, new version is 25. Old is 24. Those instructions for the tinfoilhat paper wallet are old, but still apply - only difference is # of words. (or its the other way around - regardless, they are compatible - if you upgrade, you can tell it to spit out the seed and bam you get the correct one)

and yes, if you're making a fresh wallet in simplewallet, you can open it on mymonero.com by using the 25 words

Will current version of simplewallet continue to also support restore from the 24 words, or would you have to use an older version?

I.e. if one has a paper wallet using the 24 word seed, do we need to move those funds?
184  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 26, 2015, 07:47:03 PM
All the bids have the qualifier "u" after the market maker name, which means "unsolicited" customer indication of interest.  I think this means it is not the market maker who is bidding as part of market maker activities, but it is one of their customers making the bid.

The asks are marked "u" which apparantly means an "unpriced indication of interest."

So there are retail customers playing around with high prices to see if someone bites, but it could also be there are brokers who do have shares to sell they are seeking quotes on.  Its not clear to me if they have to have the shares available in order to list the as as "unpriced indication of interest."

http://finra.complinet.com/en/display/display_main.html?rbid=2403&element_id=4514&print=1

I think the $199.5 bid at 1 just proved my point, or its someone who doesn't realize the fund is 1/10 of bitcoin!

And note the only broker without the "u" after their name is Merriman, which is the advisor for the fund.

185  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 26, 2015, 07:37:24 PM
All the bids have the qualifier "u" after the market maker name, which means "unsolicited" customer indication of interest.  I think this means it is not the market maker who is bidding as part of market maker activities, but it is one of their customers making the bid.

The asks are marked "u" which apparantly means an "unpriced indication of interest."

So there are retail customers playing around with high prices to see if someone bites, but it could also be there are brokers who do have shares to sell they are seeking quotes on.  Its not clear to me if they have to have the shares available in order to list the as as "unpriced indication of interest."

http://finra.complinet.com/en/display/display_main.html?rbid=2403&element_id=4514&print=1
186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 09:31:35 PM
Fortress Investment bought some number of bitcoins directly in 2013.  Bitcoin was the only red stain in their 2014 quarterly reports.  Fortress quicky got rid of their bitcoins, swapping them for equity in the Pantera subsidiary that runs the PBP bitcoin fund. (Note: not shares of the fund, but shares of the managing company).
While I see articles noting that Fortress rolled their $20m bitcoin stake into Pantera, their latest 10K indicates they still seem to own bitcoin directly, and it traces back to the $20m original investment in 2013.

Go to link below and search for bitcoin, and you will see the $20m investment in 2012, the year end 2013 value of $16.298m, and year-end 2014 value of $6.828m, a 58% decline, which is consistent with the market decline from 12/31/13 to 12/31/14.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380393/000138039315000003/fig-20141231x10k.htm

Thanks for the link! 

Indeed, those amounts match 6828 k /  ~315 and 16298 k /  ~725 are approximately equal to 22'000 BTC.

You saw those articles too, so I was not dreaming.  Perhaps the deal got sour after it was announced?  Or perhaps Fortress actually swapped the raw BTC for PBP fund shares, not for Pantera equity; which, being pegged to BTC, are counted as BTC for the purposes of the report?
   



I had the same thought that it could reflect indirect holdings via a swap of the raw BTC for fund shares, but I don't think that could be the case, as Pantera doesn't just hold bitcoin, it also invests in bitcoin companies:  https://panteracapital.com/portfolio/  So there couldn't be a one for one match.  And regardless, the Pantera website describes Fortress as a shareholder, so its investment in that entity would be treated just the same as any other shareholding.

So I think it must have fallen through, or just have been speculation.  Quite frankly, it never really made much sense.  By May 2014 when the deal was happening, Fortress' bitcoin were already underwater from a tax perspective, so if they wanted to get out of them, it would have made more sense to sell them and take the tax loss, and put new money into Pantera, than to try and roll them over.  Also, it would have complicated all the deal documents, as others investors would be paying dollars.
187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 07:53:31 PM
Bitcoin isn't Gold, Steel or Cement. In theory an ETF (or similar) shouldn't be necessary. I understand that a lot of investors like to work that way, but it's kind of odd when they just as well could open an account on Coinbase and trensfer it to a Trezor.
institutional investors dont or rather cant do that.

In terms of safety, investing in bitcoin (remotely) by buying GBTC shares does not seem to be much safer than buying and keeping (a bit more directly) in a Coinbase wallet. 

As for institutional investors: recall that Fortress Investment (a multibillion financial outfit, not to be confused with TradeFortress) bought some number of bitcoins directly in 2013.  Bitcoin was the only red stain in their 2014 quarterly reports.  Fortress quicky got rid of their bitcoins, swapping them for equity in the Pantera subsidiary that runs the PBP bitcoin fund. (Note: not shares of the fund, but shares of the managing company).

This example shows that some big institutional investors could invest in raw bitcoins, but currently don't want to, presumably due to its high risk and unpredictable future.  These same reasons should prevent them from buying GBTC or COIN shares, since their financial risk cannot be better than bitcoin's.


While I see articles noting that Fortress rolled their $20m bitcoin stake into Pantera, their latest 10K indicates they still seem to own bitcoin directly, and it traces back to the $20m original investment in 2013.

Go to link below and search for bitcoin, and you will see the $20m investment in 2012, the year end 2013 value of $16.298m, and year-end 2014 value of $6.828m, a 58% decline, which is consistent with the market decline from 12/31/13 to 12/31/14.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1380393/000138039315000003/fig-20141231x10k.htm

188  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2015, 08:48:52 PM
you would think its obvious that second market is going to buy up the lot if possible..

SecondMarket did not bid for themselves on the previous auctions.  In both cases, they only formed syndicates (assaciations) of small bidders who would not bid for a whole 2000 or 3000 BTC lot, and merged their bids into full-lot bids.  On the first auction they did not get a satoshi, Tim Draper took all the ~30'000 BTC.  On the second auction they got 48'000 of the 50'000 BTC, and Tim took the other 2000.  SecondMarket promptly distributed the 48'000 BTC to the small bidders, after taking a 1% service fee from them.

Their BIT fund only buys BTC when investos buy BIT shares.  BIT now has ~135'000 BTC in their possession, but it has not grown since May/2014, except for a 10 M USD  "freak" investment in November.   Only a few investors had the opportunity to withdraw; redemptions have been disbled since October, and it is not clear whether they will ever be re-enabled.

BIT investors have been barred from selling their shares to other people since the beginning.  The listing on OTCQX and the possibility OTC trading of the shares (only those older than 12 months) does not directly cause buying or selling of BTC by the fund.  However, if the BIT shares get traded at significantly more than their nominal value (the market price of 0.1 BTC), BIT may buy more BTC and issue more shares to sell to the brokers.  Conversely, if the BIT shares get traded at significantly less than their nominal value, BIT may buy back those shares from the brokers and sell the corresponding BTC.

The last paragraph is incorrect.  You are right that BIT is taking advantage of an exemption that allows unregistered shares to be sold without restriction (i.e. to the "public") after they have been held for a year.  But this means that the arbitrage method you mention by BIT cannot work.  If they buy more bitcoin and issue shares, whether to brokers or otherwise, those shares will not qualify for the 12 month exception, and cannot be sold to the "public."  (They could potentially be sold to other accredited investors if permitted by the fund.)

The BIT fund will be more comparable to a closed end fund, than a mutual fund or ETF.  Mutual funds and ETFs have mechanisms to expand or contract their assets based on supply and demand of shares, meaning the NAV and the public price are usually quite tight.  Closed end funds do not, shares are issued in one or more transactions, and then resold in the public market.  They can therefore trade at material discounts or premiums to their NAVs.
189  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 01, 2015, 09:07:18 PM
Bitcoin Investment Trust Gets Finra’s OK to Become Public Bitcoin Fund

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-investment-trust-gets-finras-ok-to-become-public-bitcoin-fund-1425242094

Google the title to get to a paywall free version.

By MICHAEL J. CASEY
March 1, 2015 3:34 p.m. ET

Barry Silbert’s Bitcoin Investment Trust is poised to become the first publicly traded bitcoin fund, with approval and assignment of a ticker symbol by the financial industry’s main self-regulatory body paving the way for trading on an electronic platform operated by OTC Markets Group .

The BIT, which was first launched in 2013 as a private fund for accredited investors with annual incomes greater than $200,000 or assets of more than $1 million, has been racing against a rival offering by twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, best known for their lawsuit against Facebook Inc. chief executive Mark Zuckerberg .

Whereas the competing Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust is going through a lengthy Securities and Exchange Commission process to register a formal exchange-traded fund, the BIT as taken a backdoor route to public listing. By exploiting a rule that allows holders of a private fund to sell their shares publicly after a 12-month lockup period and completing a less arduous approval process with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, some of those long-held shares in BIT should soon be available to investors of any income or wealth bracket. The BIT is sponsored by Grayscale Investments, a unit of Mr. Silbert’s Digital Currency Group, which he established last year to hold the digital currency interests of his broker-dealer SecondMarket Inc.
190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2015, 02:58:46 PM
Couldn't that jump have been just a large buy by Kim Dotcom?

erm he seems to have hinted in his tweet that Mega would start accepting bitcoin now that his paypal account is frozen. Surely he would have been accumulating at lower levels prior to suggesting this.

Kim is broke, only thing he is currently accumulating is legal bills.  http://torrentfreak.com/destitute-kim-dotcom-begs-high-court-for-millions-150226/
191  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: February 24, 2015, 04:19:43 PM
No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?

Or could be no-one wants to invest in a fund that doesn't currently permit redemptions.

And, with things like new Coinbase exchange, easier to take large positions directly.
192  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 29, 2015, 07:58:22 PM

"FinCEN understands that Bitcoin mining imposes no obligations on a Bitcoin user to send mined Bitcoin to any other person or place for the benefit of another. Instead, the user is free to use the mined virtual currency or its equivalent for the user’s own purposes, such as to purchase real or virtual goods and services for the user’s own use. To the extent that a user mines Bitcoin and uses the Bitcoin solely for the user’s own purposes and not for the benefit of another, the user is not an MSB under FinCEN’s regulations,"

Sounds very clear to me, Masternodes are not MSBs. (I'm not a lawyer, take it for what it's worth)


"Bitcoin mining imposes no obligations on a Bitcoin user to send mined Bitcoin to any other person or place for the benefit of another."

Isn't that exactly what a Masternode does. You are taking other people's coins, mixing it up, and sending it to other people, for the benefit of other people.

No that isn't what masternodes do. They mix up addressing information but the masternodes don't take possession of the coins.



Fair point.  Can I rephrase it to say that they are assisting others in sending their coins to other persons for the benefit of others?
193  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 29, 2015, 07:42:04 PM

"FinCEN understands that Bitcoin mining imposes no obligations on a Bitcoin user to send mined Bitcoin to any other person or place for the benefit of another. Instead, the user is free to use the mined virtual currency or its equivalent for the user’s own purposes, such as to purchase real or virtual goods and services for the user’s own use. To the extent that a user mines Bitcoin and uses the Bitcoin solely for the user’s own purposes and not for the benefit of another, the user is not an MSB under FinCEN’s regulations,"

Sounds very clear to me, Masternodes are not MSBs. (I'm not a lawyer, take it for what it's worth)


"Bitcoin mining imposes no obligations on a Bitcoin user to send mined Bitcoin to any other person or place for the benefit of another."

Isn't that exactly what a Masternode does. You are taking other people's coins, mixing it up, and sending it to other people, for the benefit of other people.
194  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 29, 2015, 07:25:30 PM
Prosecutors Trace $13.4M in Bitcoins From the Silk Road to Ulbricht’s Laptop

http://www.wired.com/2015/01/prosecutors-trace-13-4-million-bitcoins-silk-road-ulbrichts-laptop/

And: http://www1.icsi.berkeley.edu/~nweaver/ulbricht_direct.html
195  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: January 27, 2015, 01:08:48 AM
Dang, they went all out to bring in a top notch keynote speaker. Since most men really like football, having Bradshaw associated w/ this thing is a really smart business move on the Wink's part. It's one thing to have financial experts or banks being associated with bitcoin but to have a football legend on the squad is pure genius and should really land lots of credibility and interest for the common man once they get wind of this.

It was an ETF conference, Terry was there on behalf of the ETF conference generally, not Winkledoodles / Bitcoin.
196  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 27, 2015, 01:04:45 AM
Doesn't look like it.  I get 135,461 vs last on Jan 13 of 135,351.
197  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 08, 2015, 10:39:47 PM
Silkroadreloaded accepting multiple cryptocoin, including DRK.

Using shapeshift perhaps?

https://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoadReloaded/comments/2rg7jz/site_is_now_live/

Seems to be pretty hated by the DNM people given reuse of Silkroad name.
198  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 07, 2015, 01:19:51 AM

There are actualy 6.300 XMR on my freebazaar account, sponsored by:

Code:
    pa 2000 XMR
    dnaleor 100 XMR
    smooth 250 XMR
    pwrz 100 XMR
    generalizethis 50 XMR
    ajiekceu4 500 XMR
    binaryFate 100 XMR
    Shrikez 100 XMR
    anonymous #1 800 XMR
    anonymous #2 100 XMR
    anonymous #3 2200 XMR

I have to answer to my customer by tomorrow, whether I will lead his project. So, we have a little bit time more, maybe someone else likes to support the freebazaar development.
if not, pm me with your XMR wallets from 18-00 GMT tomorrow on 7.jan those, who get coins back. thank you


I wish I could donate some, but currently low on funds.. Isn't it possible to start with the current amount? Or is 10k the minimum? IIRC there is also 1k XMR avaible in bounty style.

I just donated 200 XMR to this project.  Atrides, I hope you still find the time to do some work on it even if your full 10k goal isn't reached.  But I understand if you can't.
199  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 06, 2015, 08:40:44 PM
Fincen head asked "to what extent have you been looking at the blockchain, developing tools, to analyze and make your work more useful."

"Without going into specifics, that is exactly what we do at Fincen."

Then a little later, she notes: "We do follow the technology, we do work with and train our law enforcement counterparts on how they might be able to follow money by looking at the ledger.  And then we watch with concern as we see new technologies developed to make it more difficult to trace the flow of proceeds."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdG1OhD2wVI#t=2470

The whole session was actually pretty interesting.  Right before the above link, at 40:44, she also talks about how they are seeing growth in bitcoin adoption in the US, as evidenced by over 100 business registered with Fincen, and several filings of Suspicious Activity Reports ("SARS") that are well done.
200  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Charlie Shrem is scammer, watch out on: December 21, 2014, 01:15:51 AM
I've wondered if the terms of his settlement might be part of the issue.

If you recall, Mike Caldwell stopped Casascius because his lawyers said he could be deemed to be a money transmitter.  "A lot of the discussion I had with my legal counsel is that part of what makes it money transmitting is there is no way for me to know whether the person ordering is the person receiving. In other words it is money transmitting because each order "could" be a money transmission with no way to know. Restricted delivery changes that aspect of the story."  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=243341.msg6789094#msg6789094

Charlie is just doing the opposite of what Mike was doing.

its likely the terms of any settlement would include things like Charlie agreeing not to violate money transmitting and other laws again.  This is fairly common in financial crime settlements / convictions.

So maybe one of his lawyers came across this transaction, and told him to stop it, especially pending sentencing.

But if this was the case, you'd think they could tell Charlie he could just return the physical coin.  But maybe Charlie had already sold the coin, so had not other options than to (i) pay Bracek, and potentially violate the terms of his settlement or (ii) just stop responding.

Or his lawyers just told him to stop dealing in bitcoin at all, regardless of whether it meant he would default on commitments.

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