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161  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 20, 2015, 08:37:08 PM
I added 25 more to my position today, sellers were seeming to reject any further price movement downwards. Once bidders showed a willingness to move back up to the Asks, I felt confident enough we'd set our bottom.

Yep, I placed a couple of bids that were quickly topped.
162  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 19, 2015, 08:25:42 PM
There is now a bid by ATDF for 10'000 shares at 0.01 $/share (0.10 $/BTC).  And also a sell offer by them for 100 shares at 101.00 $/share (1010 $/BTC).

Are they making fun of the market, or what?

Saw that.  If you recall, a while ago there were also some insanely high asks as well.

My guess is that it is either:

1 - Some random guy placed the limit order just for fun, and the broker has to post it.

2 - Someone trying to game some kind of very stupid trading bot (ie a bot that factors in total depth, regardless of size)

3 - Someone hoping to catch a "fat finger" mistake - i.e. someone placing a large sell order and mistakenly marking it as a market instead of a limit order.

This link has a good discussion of using NITBB or NITSO (No Intention to Buy Bid or No Intention to Sell Offer) orders to try and manipulate the price.  But I struggle to see how a bid at a penny would accomplish those goals.  https://stockalyzing.com/stock-trading-school/trading-lesson/2/
163  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 19, 2015, 08:16:43 PM
There is now a bid by ATDF for 10'000 shares at 0.01 $/share (0.10 $/BTC).  And also a sell offer by them for 100 shares at 101.00 $/share (1010 $/BTC).

Are they making fun of the market, or what?

Saw that.  If you recall, a while ago there were also some insanely high asks as well.

My guess is that it is either:

1 - Some random guy placed the limit order just for fun, and the broker has to post it.

2 - Someone trying to game some kind of very stupid trading bot (ie a bot that factors in total depth, regardless of size)

3 - Someone hoping to catch a "fat finger" mistake - i.e. someone placing a large sell order and mistakenly marking it as a market instead of a limit order.
164  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 14, 2015, 08:02:14 PM
Wonder if GBTC can make it to $1m in volume today, almost at $80k at this time.

As the premium to NAV keeps declining, FOMO on the premium may be accelerating some sales.

I think you mean $800k, not $80k. Smiley  Don't think we'll reach $1MM today but will come close.

Oops.  And yep, looks like we closed with around $850k.
165  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 14, 2015, 06:53:28 PM
Wonder if GBTC can make it to $1m in volume today, almost at $80k at this time.

As the premium to NAV keeps declining, FOMO on the premium may be accelerating some sales.
166  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 12, 2015, 01:09:26 AM
Jorge's description isn't exactly how it works.  Every business day, the Trust calculates its Net Asset Value (NAV).  NAV is value of bitcoin and any cash, less accrued fees, expenses and some other stuff.  As fee is earned or other expenses are paid, cash is used to pay those expenses, and bitcoin is sold if necessary.  So NAV is constantly adjusting based on value of bitcoin and fees / expenses accrued.  See here, searching for "Non-GAAP Net Asset Value." https://www.otciq.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=135313

If and when redemptions are resumed, the NAV would be the basis on which redemptions are made.  The NAV is also the price at which accredited investors can purchase directly from BIT, although those shares would not be publicly tradeable for 12 months.

Not disputing this, except a detail: if I read correctly, the official filed documents (available through the OTCQX site) say that Grayscale takes only bitcoins, not dollars, when issuing new shares; and returns only bitcoins, not dollars, when the shares are dedeemed.  It is some top-level brokers (of which SecondMarket is one, possibly the only one) who may take dollars from clients and buy bitcoins to give to Grayscale, or get bitcoins from Grayscale and may sell them to give dollars to clients.  Did I read correctly?

Yes, I think you are correct.  I should have said that NAV is the price at which accredited investors can purchase directly from an Authorized Participant.  And according to the last annual report, the only authorized participant currently is SecondMarket. 

I wish I could find a copy of the original prospectus.  I'm curious if the initial trust had all the complexities related to authorized participants, or if it was a simpler structure, and was amended once they refined the OTC listing approach, in anticipation of eventually behaving more like a true ETF.

167  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 12, 2015, 12:20:15 AM
Sorry for being ignorant, but how technically these fund fees are paid?

They are discounted when the shares are redeemed, i.e. returned to Grayscale in exchange for the BTC they are supposed to stand for.  
So is the amount to pay dependent on share's age? Does it mean that tradable shares are not equal, i.e. older shares are subject to more fees at redemption?

Jorge's description isn't exactly how it works.  Every business day, the Trust calculates its Net Asset Value (NAV).  NAV is value of bitcoin and any cash, less accrued fees, expenses and some other stuff.  As fee is earned or other expenses are paid, cash is used to pay those expenses, and bitcoin is sold if necessary.  So NAV is constantly adjusting based on value of bitcoin and fees / expenses accrued.  See here, searching for "Non-GAAP Net Asset Value." https://www.otciq.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=135313

If and when redemptions are resumed, the NAV would be the basis on which redemptions are made.  The NAV is also the price at which accredited investors can purchase directly from BIT, although those shares would not be publicly tradeable for 12 months.

By the same token, when looking at the premium / discount of the share price vs. bitcoin, you should really be comparing to the daily NAV, not .1 of bitcoin.  Which is here, click the market performance tab - $23.35:  http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/  (It seems like the NAV on the old bitcointrust.co is no longer current, the Grayscale site is referred to in the OTC filings as the current official source).
168  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 10, 2015, 11:38:01 PM


Not sure about the "nimble" part... When the fund started, they had promised an open market by Q2 2014.  (And the minimum holding period was only 6 months.)

Fortune, Dan Primack,  2013-09-26
http://fortune.com/2013/09/26/first-bitcoin-investment-fund-launches/
Quote
Bitcoin Investment Trust plans to spend the first several months in asset-gathering mode, and will open up the secondary markets for trading six months after launch.

Nimble compared to COIN.  That was the context of the discussion.

And I think you are misconstruing that quote. 

First, it doesn't say "minimum holding period" of 6 months.  It say they planned to open up "secondary markets" for trading six months after launch.   

Second, secondary markets does not mean "open" market, which I'm assuming you take as equal to a "public" market.  Long before bitcoin, Second Market got its start serving as a way for people to trade non-public securities.  I.e. owners of Facebook stock before it went public, that were acquired either in VC rounds or via employee grants.  It required purchasers to be accredited investors, and thus the transactions were exempt from requiring an SEC approved registration statement.
169  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 10, 2015, 06:49:51 PM
A real ETF should purchase additional units if the price trades significantly over the spot price of the underlying commodity. Why is BIT not doing that?

Technically, its not the ETF that does that, it is the authorized participants.  If the price is above NAV, they will buy baskets of new shares from the ETF and sell them, hence more supply and the price should fall.  If below NAV, they will buy shares below NAV and redeem baskets which reduces supply.

GBTC has that mechanism.  However, currently only shares that have been outstanding for a year may be sold on OTC.  So in practice, it doesn't work.  They are saying they will pursue full SEC registration, at which point, it could.

I give Barry credit for being nimble and "hacking" something that is publicly tradeable first, even if it currently has limitations.
170  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 10, 2015, 06:08:08 PM
http://insidebitcoins.com/news/barry-silbert-plans-to-have-bitcoin-fund-traded-on-nasdaq-or-nyse/32161
“Our plan is to have [the Bitcoin Investment Trust] listed on either NASDAQ or New York Stock Exchange as fast as possible. We have selected a law firm to go through the registration process with us, and we intend to file with the SEC . . . as soon as possible. We will then be in the same boat as the Winklevoss brothers.”

Assuming they file right now would there be a chance they can beat COIN out the gates or would their filing have to go through the same long process?

Except COIN would be way more liquid as a true ETF instead of the trust that Barry hacked together to squeeze into the markets. Once both are available through major markets I'm pretty certain that most people would choose to trade COIN over GBTC. Time will tell!

Not necessarily.  Both entities use trusts.  GBTC has the same method of issuing / redeeming shares via baskets and authorized participants as COIN.  It just doesn't work now because of the one year holding period.  If they can get SEC registered, that problem goes away.  And COIN has not yet disclosed what its fees are, at least on the latest S-1A.

So the end game could be the same, but in the meantime, Barry managed to hack together a solution that at least gets something trading.
171  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 09, 2015, 09:57:23 PM

In the short term, since it was easier to get the BIT into a tax deferred retirement account, the fees are probably worth it.

Long term, if bitcoin takes off, there will no doubt be competition, and COIN / other investment vehicles will pop up with lower fees.  And since it is in a tax-deferred account, David will be able to roll into one of those investments without taking a capital gain hit.

I hear you. Over time if more of these vehicles are created, fees will drop. I read somewhere that fees on some ETF's are as low as 0.04%. Makes this one seem even more extortionate. And I would imagine COIN will not be in a hurry to undercut GBIT by very much, if at all, given they will be a genuine ETF.
We will need a lot more competition than that to see fees drop significantly IMO.

Interesting to hear that he could 'roll' between them without penalties. I have no knowledge of any of these rules.
How does the tax deferral of a retirement account work? If it is just a deferral, is any CGT paid at the same rate at the end of the day? Or is there some tax relief too?

There are two general types.  One a 401k or simple IRA, allows you to invest a certain amount of income, and that investment is not considered earnings or otherwise taxed (meaning you can invest more upfront).  The investment then grows without taxes, capital gains or dividends.  When you reach the qualifying age and withdraw the money, it is taxed as ordinary income.  But, ideally you are in a lower tax bracket as you are retired.

Roth IRAs let you invest after tax income, but then distributions are not taxed.

Lots of other details.
172  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 09, 2015, 07:35:22 PM
@ David Rahaby  ... as you say you are long-minded  (and I believe you) have you considered just how much the management fees will eat into your BTC over the years? IIRC correctly the annual fee is 2% of NAV and it is taken in BTC not USD, so if you start with 100 BTC ...
After 10 years = 81.7 BTC
After 20 years = 66.8 BTC
After 25 years = 60.3 BTC

I am using these time periods as you talk about 'retirement funds'.

So if you hold BTC in this wrapper for 25 years you will pay away 40% in fees, which seems extortionate for something that pays no dividends or coupons, and requires no rebalancing for duration or weighting. It basically sits there in cold-storage.

Put another way, in 10 years, 10 shares of GBTC will not be approximately 1BTC, it will be approximately 0.82 BTC, and at that time the price of the fund should reflect this (ie be based upon it's NAV).

Just wondering if anyone is even looking at or thinking about this ...

 

In the short term, since it was easier to get the BIT into a tax deferred retirement account, the fees are probably worth it.

Long term, if bitcoin takes off, there will no doubt be competition, and COIN / other investment vehicles will pop up with lower fees.  And since it is in a tax-deferred account, David will be able to roll into one of those investments without taking a capital gain hit.
173  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 08, 2015, 07:42:42 PM

It's in a qualified retirement account, i.e. Roth IRA.  I can and have easily obtained Bitcoins from a wide variety of avenues.  I have enough non-retirement Bitcoins for now; thank you.  To take advantage of the supposed arbitrage opportunity would involve;

1) waiting until my BIT shares actually arrive at my custodian (in-progress; should be soon (next week?))
2) place sell order (hopefully easy & quick)
3) use proceeds to purchase more BIT shares at NAV via my custodian (pain in the butt, prove I am accredited again, medallion signature guarantee, ...)
4) if I want to do it again then wait 12 months and return to step 1

I didn't know it was so cumbersome.  I've rarely seen accredited investor processes needing proof of accredited status (you just make the representation), and I've never seen one requiring medallion signature guarantees.  

But, those were VC / "friend and family" type investments, so less "public" than BIT.  So, maybe they need to be more careful.

Still, you'd think it would be more streamlined if you have already purchased from them.  Have you checked they'd make you go through the whole process again?
174  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 08, 2015, 03:56:38 PM
New volume record, $300k traded at $50+.

I thought price would continue to drop as BIT holders began to fear missing out on the arbitrage opportunity.
175  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 07, 2015, 05:46:00 PM
Nice chunk of the 65s taken out:  http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229
176  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 06, 2015, 12:32:25 PM
with all this messy way this quazi etf works why is not the following also possible until (if ever) COIN arrives.

I set up a company in a country (X) that sees bitcoin as a commodity.  I buy 20,000 bitcoin.  I then set up a company in the US for example which buys company x. The US company has 1 million shares. People are able to buy the shares and sell them to others as well.

I make some money on fees and an etf like product is immediately available to people - no year long wait etc.

Comments?
 

Creating a shell public company that has freely tradeable shares in the US is not easy.  They are known as "blank check" companies and use to be the source of lots of scams.

There is a current version known as a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company), but there are many restraints on what they can do, and you still have to generally describe the type of investment you're going to pursue.  If you said you were going to acquire bitcoin, you'd get stuck in the same quagmire as COIN.
177  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 30, 2015, 02:40:03 PM
presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.

Redemptions too used to have an N month maturation period (originally 6, extended to 12?) before they dould be redeemed. Isn't that going to be the case still?


I don't recall a maturation period for redemptions, but I may have missed it.  From this copy of an earlier factsheet, it seems the early redemptions just had an additional 1.5% fee, although it also notes redemptions were on a "limited basis."

*Redemption of shares will be allowed on a limited basis
as of April 2014 with expectation of qualifying for public
trading of the shares via the OTCQX® under the Alternative
Reporting Standards. Please note that an early redemption
fee of 1.5% will apply if shares are redeemed within a year
of purchase.:

http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdf

178  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 30, 2015, 02:37:55 PM
They could sell on OTC and buy again directly from Secondmarket as accredited investors.  Only thing they would lose is the ability to sell on OTC for another year.  Even that is not so bad, since presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.
As I understand it SecondMarket will not resume redemptions; they only way out is via the OTC; trying to arbitrage with a 12 month cycle would very likely be ineffective.

Since I am truly long-minded, if when I truly have liquidity then I might sell some BIT via the OTC:GBTC and reinvest it at NAV through SecondMarket.

From the latest filing, they appear to be trying to resume redemptions.  I don't know enough about Reg M to assess whether they are likely to be successful. 

On September 23, 2014, the Distributor received a letter from the staff of the SEC’s Office of
Compliance Inspections and Examinations summarizing the staff’s findings from an onsite review
of the Distributor’s broker-dealer activities conducted in June 2014. Among other things, the staff
stated that it had concluded that the Trust’s redemption program appears to violate Regulation M
under the Securities Exchange Act because redemptions of Shares take place at the same time the
Trust is in the process of creating Shares. The Distributor and the Trust are in discussions with the
staff of the SEC in order to resolve the staff’s concerns, although the Distributor and the Trust
cannot at this time predict the impact such a resolution may have on their respective activities. S
179  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 30, 2015, 02:02:09 PM
Make it happen Barry and I'm not talking about Barrack O. At some point soon this SM has to give us a boost.
It will be interesting to see if it does give the market a boost or not.
I know they are buying way way above market rate, but whether the market catches up with their price, or their price falls down to the market price will be the next important piece of information for us after it goes live.

I think there might be a meeting in the middle, with about $290-300 being re-tested.

I guess many people holding shares there may not be willing to sell at current spot prices, because they mostly (if not all) bought at higher prices. If you want to trade price swings, you're better of using one of the regular exchanges!

they could sell and buy instead at coinbase etc. that would 100BTC->150BTC

Yeah, that's what some of them just might do, actually. But I guess there's a reason why they invested in GBTC shares, rather than buying the coins directly: They like the type of investment vehicle, with all its disadvantages and advantages. And that's the very reason they may just stay in that vehicle!

They could sell on OTC and buy again directly from Secondmarket as accredited investors.  Only thing they would lose is the ability to sell on OTC for another year.  Even that is not so bad, since presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.
180  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 27, 2015, 09:32:49 PM
based on what you read / your understanding of the documents,  what do you expect turn around time to be?
They don't indicate timeframes per se but I am guessing it might take 5 business days or even more until I can actually post a sell.  I did not see any obvious ways to take advantage of the techniques to speed things up, e.g. pay for wire transfers, etc.  Then again I am not interested in selling at this time.  I suppose I could sell a small amount just to prove that it works.

Again, these are just some of my Roth IRA funds; I also have non-retirement Bitcoins that I hold in a few different wallets myself; easy enough.  Unfortunately holding Bitcoin in retirement accounts is not easy ... yet.  To do so I am obliged to trust a custodian although I haven't finished investigating the so-called self-directed checking-IRA.

From looking at your form, there is an expedited option that, so a motivated seller could be ready to trade much sooner than 5 days.

Also, I am wondering if your situation is a little more complicated as you are dealing with an IRA.  Someone holding directly and transferring to a broker may be able to do things quicker.
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