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61  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 04, 2016, 09:08:38 PM
Interesting series of tweets by Peter Todd on the zcash founder mining reward:

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It's not a matter of what's fair or not, it's a matter of what's good for the ecosystem

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e.g. 20% is so high it's a significant help to a 51% attacker.

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Equally, tying reward to market cap isn't necessarily ethical - can lead to scam incentive

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And like it or not, @zcashco is very likely to be seen by regs as soliciting investment.

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I should add a writeup of this concern to the disclaimers on my trusted setup post.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/794331782241984512

His write up should be interesting!
62  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 02, 2016, 03:55:56 PM

Its a totally absurd idea.  While it might not bother people just buying zcrash to buy things on DM it totally prevents it from being used as a means to store wealth privately.

DNM users have one very good reason to like cold storage.  Best way of preserving illegally obtained assets while in jail!
63  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 02, 2016, 03:33:58 PM
In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

Great article.  I had not heard of this issue:

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Zooko proposed recently to periodically force everyone to reveal their balance as a solution for the hidden inflation problem. At a certain block height all “anonymous” coins would become invalid and an observer would be able to sum up all “transparent” coins. If the total amount is equal to or less than the emission should actually be, the  system can be considered “sound” until that point in time.
 

The proposal is discussed by Zooko here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6RLjcGVUnw&feature=youtu.be&t=29m00s

Zooko notes that the "privacy leak" should be "minimal", and users can split up their balances to mitigate that.  He then also notes this would not impose a burden on users, as it would be managed by wallets, although that would mean cold storage wouldn't work..

Cold storage in my opinion is one of the greatest things about crypto!

64  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 27, 2016, 07:10:26 PM
Zcash "sideshow" futures on bitmex now at 0.52.  https://www.bitmex.com/app/contract/ZECZ16
65  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 27, 2016, 06:15:33 PM
And now he's tweeted this:

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Note disclaimer: My participation in the Zcash trusted setup ceremony should not be construed as an endorsement.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/791702093748809729
66  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 27, 2016, 06:12:50 PM
Peter Todd also just tweeted this:

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FWIW, I did the the ceremony knowing little about it.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/791689486702784512

I think his point is may be that you don't want the witnesses to know too much about the process before hand, as it would give them more time to think about ways of compromising things.

But the flipside is that it means Zcash has no idea if Peter agrees that their process is as secure as they think it is.

If one of the six witnesses posts a blog describing the process and raises even the slightest concerns, won't that be disastrous?

And he isn't known for pulling punches, remember the coinbase doublespend:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/40ejy8/peter_todd_with_my_doublespendpy_tool_with/cytlhh0/?context=10000
67  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 27, 2016, 05:49:49 PM

I usually never spotted any kind of critics on the zcash forum. Look over at twitter/reddit/trollbox/tradingview chat etc. nobody likes the idea that 6 guys did the trusted setup together days ago already.
In this setup one has to trust, that they won`t print money. No thanks.

They should have had Craig Wright and Gavin Andresen participate so we know it is really trustworthy!

Lol are you serious?

If not that was a good joke.  Smiley

Of course that was a joke!  Didn't think I needed a /s on the Monero Speculation board!

Although the underlying point was that Craig managed to convince a reputed bitcoin guy that he was Satoshi using cryptographic sleight of hand.  So not impossible to think someone couldn't do the same to 6 other crypto dudes (or even just 4, given 2 of the 6 were Zcash principals (Zooko, and Andrew Miller, an "Advisor" to Zcash).  (And, ironically, another advisor to Zcash IS none other than Gavin.)

Looking forward to seeing Peter Todd's write up of the process over the coming days.  But I've already seen one reference to "boxes of new computers", which was the same claim made by Craig Wright.  http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/networks/zcash-truly-anonymous-blockchainbased-cryptocurrency
68  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 27, 2016, 03:43:56 PM

I usually never spotted any kind of critics on the zcash forum. Look over at twitter/reddit/trollbox/tradingview chat etc. nobody likes the idea that 6 guys did the trusted setup together days ago already.
In this setup one has to trust, that they won`t print money. No thanks.

They should have had Craig Wright and Gavin Andresen participate so we know it is really trustworthy!
69  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 27, 2016, 02:52:56 PM
Everybody who wanted to sell XMR because he anticipated Zcash launch could hurt the XMR price, already did it a while ago. Now there is some disappointment about Zcash all over the Internet, because only 6 persons have created the trusted setup.
Now add the XMR GUI to the equation...will be interesting.

Curious where you are seeing this, I saw one comment in the ZEC subreddit.  Didn't see much in the official forum.

It is interesting that zcash shut down the original reddit forum.
70  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 25, 2016, 10:32:10 PM

This is excellent analysis. The market has to balance the valuation of the crypto - currency as a whole, market cap, vs the valuation of each individual token, price  in the presence of a limited and highly predictable hyper inflation during the first year. A very likely result will be an initial short lived bull market, price close to parity with Bitcoin is actually possible, followed by a brutal bear market with a loss in the 95% or higher over the subsequent 6 - 9 months. It could take several years for the price to reach the initial bull market price if at all. Here are some prior examples

1) Monero. Initial high 0.01111 XBT, Subsequent low 0.00091 XBT. Initial fall in value of the individual token over 91% in terms of XBT, higher in terms of USD, EUR etc. Monero only exceeded its 2014 per token peak over 2 years later. The market cap when the initial peak was exceeded was 10x and soon went over 20x the market cap of the 2014 peak.  

2) Dogecoin. The 2014 peak was around 0.00000300 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00000019 XBT Loss for each individual token over 93%. Dogecoin has not seen 0.00000300 XBT since.

3) Dash. Now in this case the phenomenon was mitigated by the instamine; however in spite of the instamine the effect was still present. The 2014 peak was around 0.02740 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00215 XBT. Loss for each individual token over 92% in terms of XBT

So my take with Zcash is wait about 6-9 moths and then see.

I generally agree.  

But I also realize I stupidly used 12 hour days instead of 24 hours, so have repasted below.  1/34/365 day mkt cap at 0.25 BTC to ZEC is now $34k, $20.1m, and $414m.

Another interesting data point is that with ZEC = 0.25 BTC, and given that BTC has gone through two halvenings, after day 34 the daily dollar value of mined ZEC will be the same as bitcoin.  $1.2m per day, $8.3m per week, $33.2m per month...

Is Monero around 10 XMR per block, 2 minute blocks?  If so, daily emission at $5.92 is around $42k.

71  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 25, 2016, 06:59:35 PM
Should be a bounce here but I would be surprised if this was a final capitulation especially with bitcoin just itching to move.  And the ZCash hype is just ridiculous, any discerning mind that makes a rudimentary effort to investigate it will quickly see how flawed it is yet here we are, its trading at 0.25 BTC.  WTF is wrong with crypto people.

An interesting thing about Zcash is that it may be the most hyped alt that is also being launched without any ICO or premine.  It also plans on "slow-start mining":  the amount of ZEC each time a block is mined will start at zero and gradually ramp up to 12.5 ZEC after 34 days.  

So even at the B0.25 per ZEC / $660 BTC / $165 ZEC, the initial market caps will be low.  Around $17k on the first day, ramping to $10m by the end of slow mining.  Then, after a year it would get to $207m (3,600 ZEC per day).

So the irrational exhuberance in the early days could be offset [edit] exacerbated by headline numbers saying the market cap is still tiny.  And, the slow emission / no ICO or pre-mine also means very little liquidity on the markets, which could further drive craziness.

Ironically, their attempt to be "fair" by avoiding pre-mine or ICO may lead to crazy and volatile early prices, and it may take time before the market cap is perceived to be egregious by people who just look at top line numbers.

Here is the quick analysis I put together.  I just used a daily increase on block reward to reach the 12.5 on day 34, they may be using a more gradual curve.




72  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 09, 2016, 03:46:46 PM
There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

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In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/
73  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 13, 2016, 09:28:23 PM

Evidently the GUI is hiding in the woods in Winston Salem?

I thought we'd cancelled the GUI?
74  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 13, 2016, 06:55:14 PM
WTF just happened to bitcoin at bitfinex?  Interesting coincidence given the similar move in XMR...
75  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: 1st Global Monero Summit on: September 08, 2016, 08:21:02 PM
Grand dinner is part of the pre-summit?
76  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 23, 2016, 11:17:04 PM
And should we start to plan a Monero $100 or $1,000 party?  Can we do it at Malla?

Malla can comfortably host about 20 guests, so I'd like the party held so that everyone fits in who is able to come.

$10 perhaps?  Cheesy

$20 or above I would do it!
77  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 23, 2016, 10:41:09 PM
C'mon folks, we need more manic exhuberance, or they won't short it down.  I want to hear some chitchat about world domination and new global elite...  Or don't you want your bids filled?

It is interesting that the original "I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite" was partially premised on the "scale of the black market."  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.0

So, what are you guys going to do with your monero wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

And should we start to plan a Monero $100 or $1,000 party?  Can we do it at Malla, even if it appears Risto is no longer in Monero?
78  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: July 28, 2016, 10:25:35 PM
Greg Maxwell asking about privacy and fungibility concerns on reddit/bitcoin here:  https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4v28jl/how_have_fungiblity_problems_affected_you_in/

In response to the following question (permalink: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4v28jl/how_have_fungiblity_problems_affected_you_in/d5uv26v)

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So much greatness here! What about ring signatures like in Monero?

Answer:

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That list was far from comprehensive. I mostly don't think of the ring signature stuff as a high contender because of its adverse impact on scaling (it adds a perpetually growing spent coin accumulator, and makes the utxo set perpetually growing).

Any Monero devs have any responses, the answer is beyond my technological knowledge?

79  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 14, 2016, 08:11:52 PM
Wonder if Smooth and Fluffypony's involvement in steem is bringing some of that group to Monero...
80  Economy / Speculation / Re: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: July 14, 2016, 08:10:57 PM
The fine is pretty small compared to the size of the trust so not a big deal in my mind.

What does worry me is the 2% annual fee per http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/.  *If* I could sell GBTC and purchase BTC directly in my Roth IRA then I would do it to save the expense.

Agreed, and the settlement relates to the Reg M issue related to have a redemption program in place for the institutional investors while shares were being issued on the public markets.  This issue has been disclosed for a long time, and does not relate to any fundamentals of the trust.

Keep us posted if you make progress with Broad Financial.
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