I'm surprised. It looks like this time, even some of the veterans in here tend to believe the Satoshi revelation story, that Wright = Satoshi.

Granted, the Wired/gizmodo article and research behind is somewhat better than that awful Newsweek "Look! Same last name!" story, but aside from that: whatever hard evidence Wired has (or has revealed so far) is rather flimsy as well. As far as I can tell, the major documents containing proof of identity either cannot be verified (cryptographically, say), or haven't been verified (by some indirect method).

All in all, I see very little strong evidence, and mainly just a man whose reaction to the Wired story is consistent with someone who could be Satoshi. But in that case, motivation matters, and it's rather funny how it only seems to cross a few peoples' minds that somebody might actually want to be believed to be Satoshi. The crypto nerds mainly seem to focus on the "He just wants his privacy!" angle, so somebody possibly trying to take credit for Satoshi's work doesn't seem to fit in.

Last observation: Wright's style doesn't pass the sniff test. From the soundbites and writing samples I've seen, there's a big difference between Wright's and Satoshi's style -- the latter's phrasing and argument development being rather modest sounding, never boasting -- which means I personally want to see a lot more hard evidence -- i.e. documents constituting proof of identity between the two, that also have been shown to be authentic and non-tampered with -- before seriously considering that Satoshi has been identified.

I don't really care how we get to effective ~4MB (should be good for now), as long as the economical retardation of artificial scarcity, i.e purposefully bottlenecking txs, doesn't take hold -- and judging by the (economically surprisingly lucid) reaction of the mining majority of recent months, that's not likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

Sure, can't exclude that, but if so, the painted tape has been rather good to me.

Eh. I'd be a bit more grateful: the only (semi) relevant exchange left where volume isn't distorted by zero-fee bots, and price forms pretty lines because: no margin cascades

We're at another mid to long term decision point, aren't we?

It's too early to say with certainty which way it'll go (will need another week or two to lock in). Also, like I said a few times already, I'm a bit worried about volume. But this:





does not look like an entirely hopeless set-up to me.

9.5/10, would chortle again!


Here's another favorite of mine: "Semi fungible high limit poker chips for the elite".

Nope. Will happily admit I didn't see this coming. USD volume is still a cause of concern imo, but damn that's some pretty impressive price action, especially compared to the March and July '15 run-ups.

A few days ago, Lauda posted in here, telling everyone to report more often -- the mods are willing to fight the spam, but need us to report the posts.

re: price. $340 is the first obvious level of interest (current DSMA20). Not saying this is 'hard' support, but price action around there should tell us something about the current market appetite. Next one down is around $330, today's value of the so far unbroken upwards trendline since October. Finally, I expect that any sharper decline we might see will at least take a deep breath at around $280 (weekly SMA20). Note: I'm not saying price will inevitably go there, just that if daily downwards momentum drives price into this region, weekly sma will likely prove to be a strong 'congestion' zone, if not hard support.

(EDIT) To get a bit more concrete: I'd say another ~10% drop to ~$310/2000CNY is currently my most likely short-to-mid term scenario. In addition, I  see some evidence that this region is starting to act as support (even if the level itself is briefly pierced).

(aside) I love this thread, despite or maybe because of all the bullshit that is being posted. Never change, Wall Observer thread.

@fatman

It's a bit more complicated than that, right?

The ownership relations are: Porsche <-- Volkswagen <-- Porsche Holding <-- Porsche & Piech families <-- Ashkenazi Spacelizards (the last one's for r0ach :3)

Meh. Who needs those unreliable, flashy supercars. A man should own two cars:

A Mercedes, probably S class (for being serious), and a Porsche, probably 911 (for fun).

@fatman: And don't even think of saying Porsche is "watered down" because it's part of the Volkswagen group. That's the damn origin of the company after all, courtesy of Dr. Strangelove Ferdinand Porsche

@sgbett

Looks great! That's exactly the kind of visualization I was hoping someone would do, so I wouldn't have to do it

Also, the "if price is in range X, Y wins" is a nice touch. Thanks a lot.

Hehe, since we're doing 'outside competition' estimates anyway, mine is 350 to 800 on November 30th 2016. Which I guess places me into the more bearish crowd compared to some of the other estimates.

^ Sorry, wouldn't be fair to the others, mainly because you can see their entries now.

Next time :)

Submission period just ended. 8 valid submission (well, 7 completely valid, and one more after switching "upper" and "lower" values as mentioned above).

Here's the data, in order they were submitted. Players might want to check if I made mistake in copying from the form results. All values in USD.


Equus: 51,000 to 99,000                                                 

windjc: 650 to 750                                                 

sgbett: 2,600 to 5,400                                                 

NorrisK: 300 to 3,000                                                 

Wexlike: 1,000 to 2,600                                                 

Foxcoin: 3,000  to 5,999                                                 

Kramerc: 800 to 1,200                                                 

Spaceman_Spiff: 3,400 to 8,600


Here's the (now public) form summary.

If anyone wants to analyze the data, qualitative or quantitative, feel free to do so.

Thanks everyone for participating! Pleasure, as before :)

Of course. That was the plan all along, see:

Final reminder. (For real this time, no more spamming afterwards, promised :D)


(1) Link to the Google docs form to submit your prediction.

(2) Address to send the participation tx to.


3 hours 6 minutes left...

Ouch.

For the record, I usually enjoy aminorex' longer posts, even if I don't always follow his line of thinking.

Final reminder:


Today's the last day of submitting an entry for the 2015/2016 price prediction contest -- and your last chance to win ~BTC0.44, in case you predict the 2016 price better than anyone else :)


13 hours, 12 minutes, 30 second left...