Then, when it started to look like that didn't derail the rally, some decided to buy back in, creating momentum, so more bought back, etc.
Were you watching how it happened Oda? It was very very strange. I don't know if it was strange. What I do find strange is how Huobi is now again behind Bitstamp (not sure Chinese sleeping accounts for this). Was yesterday a mere fluctuation in the price delta or have conditions changed again? I'm afraid noone truly knows, not even the Chinese. It's that obvious, huh :D Yes. Short term trade, went in and out with a net zero. I'm still not 100% convinced we'll break through the ma200 tonight, but there's some real force behind this rally, I can't say otherwise, so being long makes more sense right now. |
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Then, when it started to look like that didn't derail the rally, some decided to buy back in, creating momentum, so more bought back, etc.
Were you watching how it happened Oda? It was very very strange. I know, I was online. I'm glossing over those details. But aside from how the strange finex action and how the crash started exactly, in a similar situation to that of the "log downtrend" 12 days ago, every trader was watching the SMA200 like a hawk. I don't find it surprising at all that we saw major action around (and below) it. |
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That does not account for this crazyness Well, how about: lots of traders took profit at likely peak (possibly even reversal) target yesterday (SMA200, ~doubling since 340 bottom). Then, when it started to look like that didn't derail the rally, some decided to buy back in, creating momentum, so more bought back, etc. |
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wtf bitstamp... Can't log in
I can't connect to bitstamp  Same for me. Clown "exchanges". Works for me, just tested. Not even slow. Wonder what's the difference... maybe you get routed to a different DDoS protection site, and that one is down? |
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Looks like the rally is back on. Breaking through 680 right now? Or will the current action  turn into this  again? Not that it really matters :D |
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I don't know where you get your information about me supposedly being a troll. That comment is total bullshit, and if you read much substance of my multiple posts, you would realize that I make my posts with genuine attempts to communicate relevant ideas and without any ill-intentions towards anyone, except maybe trolls.. hehehe, which I again assert that I am NOT... . Accordingly, I even stated in my earlier post (and I meant it) that I did NOT make my comments towards Rpietila lightly or with any maligned intentions towards RPietila.
Regarding the substance of your comment. Lighting and angle are NOT going to account for the bad health that is depicted in such picture. Genetics may account for some of such depiction, and I stated that I was sorry, if genetics were the case... and that is why I largely attempted to focus my comments on the three main controllables (diet, sleep and exercise).
You realize you post in a forum where, by virtue of the topic and the alignments with that topic, there's probably a pretty big overlap between users here and the crowd that populates your typical computer science/physics/math department... When was the last time you have been to one of those? I'm afraid, you'd be advising a lot of people on the "three main controllables" in one of those |
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not to mention candlesticks need a market open/close to even exist. you can make them by picking some arbitrary time as your cutoff, but depending on which time you pick, you get different patterns.
Others said it already: you have a point in that the exact partitioning of the price data (which is what candles are) is arbitrary (though well defined ahead of time, so you cannot just "pick" the ideal boundaries you like best... however, you can pick another time scale, which can hide or show patterns that don't exist on another time scale), but it turns out that, on average, quite a few usable patterns emerge even after that arbitrary choice. Thomas Bulkowski's "Pattern Site" is probably the closest we have (or at least: that I know of) to provide some empirical foundation for TA as she is practiced, so with the caveat that this is not peer reviewed quality stuff, I'd cite him as evidence that (candle based) patterns tend to work -- don't know if he has data for shooting star though... |
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Aside from the part that EVERYONE here loves to hate rpietila, we ought to give the man some credit. He's the one that believes in bitcoin more than any of us trolls in here and has had the gut (and money) to support it. Chances are that he'll be around after the next 2-3 bubbles of bitcoin and he's gonna probably make it to the news several times in the future regarding virtual currencies.
Question is: who of us is willing to be here after $5000 mark? think before you spit. Kthnxbye.
I don't hate him. Never even met the guy. I do however consider his habit of presenting Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme to be toxic. All the fancy log charts and extrapolations can't change that this is his selling point. He's certainly not the only one who's doing it, but he's one of the more prominent ones, so he receives a certain (disproportional perhaps) amount of flak from those who feel that kind of salesmanship is a disservice to Bitcoin. |
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[...]
Well, I'm not sure if we need a lot of buying pressure. If sellers don't keep selling, is there any way to go but up?
If we don't close the day below 621 then that example is invalidated anyway.
Im not convinced we see lower. Maybe.
I'm not convinced either. Just pointing out two, comparably bearish, short term developments. Anyway, confirmation or rejection should be there within today or tomorrow. Best case for the bulls, today goes back up to touch daily BB upper band, and I'd say from tomorrow onwards the rally is back on. On the other hand, very weak red or green candle today, but no major move, means we have to wait more. re: "close the day below 621". I don't look at the shooting star pattern that way, by those precise rules some like to give... It's simply an "inverted hammer" to me, which is why I at least consider that it marks a (temporary) peak. |
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Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.
Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013. If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend. Not by my analysis. I have argued strenuously in here that I see strong evidence of (natural) buying support in the mid 400s. You're free to reject that conclusion obviously, but by my interpretation, pink line would just be 'ever so weakly upwards leaning consolidation'. Basically, broken trendline doesn't mean much to me if there's a stronger factor in the back of my mind. Short term, it would be bearish, sure: we'd go below the 23% fib 1200-340, which means you'll hear the bulls cry again. Could be however that breaking through it without closing under it is the confirmation we need that we're out of the larger downtrend for good. EDIT: and that particular trendline, the one that goes through the SR crash, is not a favorite of mine anyway. SR is a borderline outlier, so I weigh it less to begin with, it's far far in the past, with zero point between then and now even getting close to it, and it's angle is way too steep to really be a realistic line of support. the trendline that formed the triangle I looked at (until we broke out 9 days ago) was simply the slightly rising support through ~400. Oda, do you think your violet scenario - retrace to ~540 - is occurring right now? That channel was invalidated some days ago, and the lines I drew in hardly deserve the word 'scenario'... I wouldn't try to derive a price target from them (which I said in my post). That said, I do see some evidence that we're seeing the first major retracement of this rally. For example, daily close below 1d SMA200, and what arguably looks like a shooting star pattern forming...   So, yes, unless buying pressure suddenly returns and turns this around, I expect a further retrace, to $590 perhaps, ~$530 if it gets nasty. To be clear, I don't see any signs that our rally is over for good, so if you only care about the really large swings, or the really long stagnation periods, there's little need to act yet in my opinion. |
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Also: Sold most in short term near daily sma200
Muahahaha... sneaky bastard, that masterluc. The *exact* right post at the *exact* right time. Let's see what effect it has. |
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Can you imagine? I predicted all of this in another thread! Don't believe me? Personally, I'm a big fan of Chaikin's banana flow index. If the banana curves upwards, we're going up, if the banana curves downwards, we're going down. Very simple, very reliable (5 sigma). Here's the current view:  |
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That's why we need one thread for bulls and one for bears
Awww? What fun would that be? I enjoy the bull-bear show.  second'd That's the fucking truth: no bull action without bear action, no bear action without previous bull action. Yin and yang, baby... Coke vs. Pepsi... Good vs. Evil. Same coin, different side. |
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Who the fuck would be selling right now?
Those who are not bulltards.. Careful with that. You'll be put on 'ignore' by a newbie poster who will declare so in a post, full of indignation (the same type of newbie who will sell all at a loss when the inevitable 15%+ drop happens eventually  ) |
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Looks like stamp can't quite make up its mind whether to cross the ma200 or not...
only on 1d scale MA 200 didn`t cross. on all other scale it did cross cherry-picking for bears ? |
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I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.
A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.
sorry,but anyone who ist talking about a "bubble" doesn`t what a "Bubble" is. Was Internet.com a "bubble" ?of course not ,only some Internet companies went bankrupt, only for those it was a "bubble" I think we schould use Terms correct"correct" is defined by context. And "bubble" in the context of Bitcoin is differently than in other markets. So don't get too hung up on words I suggest, it was pretty clear by my usage that I don't mean it to say that it's a bubble that pops and leads to a market that never recovers. EDIT: just saw your other response... ok, but I am a term purist
... and I'm with (later) Wittgenstein on this one: the rules of the language game are defined as the actual game is being played. This being "Bitcoin language game", not "Stock market language game". |
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I don't believe we will see a bubble already in July, at least not in the sense that the uberbulls hope for.
A local maximum/intermediate "mini bubble", on the other hand would fit in very well... I see a good chance for somewhere between 600 and 1000 in July, and then a decline before getting into the next real bubble cycle.
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Looks like stamp can't quite make up its mind whether to cross the ma200 or not...  Probably will though, China is already above. |
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So guys any prediction what will be price of btc be in 9hours from now when i wake up ?
Short term, chances are we're going down a bit: 2h MACD just turned red. A bit further ahead, and I don't see us pulling back substantially yet. Too much upwards momentum, no real taste for selling at the moment it seems. So probably: another day or two around 600-620, then next level, 650-700. |
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Eternity, are you a bot?? <-- I wonder if he's programmed to respond to questions  Could be. Different thread: Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”
which is verbatim taken out of: Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader. from: http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert |
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