BFL is not real until they do deliver more than the rare one comparing unicorns to horses, BFL is an accumulate bitcoin scheme that will deliver products when the price of mining with their own units becomes unprofitable while sending out the rare unit now and then to have more people buy into this scheme and in the meantime get to hold the money for free. As can be seen by the 100 dollar upgrade from 5 to 7 G/H
They will then announce more powerful units and toss the old ones away genius.
Pay peanuts, and you get monkeys.
That's rich when promoting a company that sells devices at prices that will never return investment. You can't sell ASICs at GPU prices forever and if ASICminer actually relies on those sorts of margins they will be strangled. Friedcat seems like a shrewed guy and I bet he has plenty of tricks up his sleeves, but y'all act like Titantic passengers. And you act like a person who hasn't done their research what pray tell was incorrect about the BFL statement Have they delivered to their customers Nope just the rare advertising delivery Yes. They have. What planet are you living on? |
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Even if a product delivers and is shipped we don't have the information on Friedcats Gen 2 yet
We just know it will blow the current market on ASIC's.
We don't know that at all. In fact, I don't believe AM's or Avalon's next gen chips will be as good as BitFury's or KnC's, but I do think they'll be better than BFL's. If you have any evidence proving otherwise, the I'd be glad to change my opinion. Until then, it's just marketing talk. |
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BFL don't have super machines, but they do have better ASICs than AM and Avalon. BitFury currently have the best though. Those ASICs all exist right now. To pretend that they don't is just silly. Ignoring the implications of that can only lead to making poorly informed decisions, like paying too much for shares.
The existing of them is true , but how many units they capable to supply to the market? one or two ? This comparison just like use conceptual car to comparing current car... We all know that one day we will change our car to electricity , does this mean right now electric car has beaten patrol car  The only thing is time , despite the fact of timing , it just non-sense comparison. - 1 Minirig, a few singles and a good few jalapenos. Thursday, 20th June - 1 Minirig, a few singles and a good few jalapenos. Wednesday, 19th June - A few singles and a good few jalapenos. Tuesday, 18th June - 3 Minirigs and a good few jalapenos. So that's 5 Minirigs, several Singles and a fair amount of Jalapenos. So, they shipped at least 2.5 Th/s and probably closer to around 4 Th/s last week. Now that they're producing all models, production will ramp up. So, we should soon find out what they're production capacity is. I'm pretty sure I could assemble a Minirig in under 1 hour and more likely could assemble 2 - 4. So, I'd say at least 10 Minirigs a day easily. That's 5 Th/s per day, 35 Th/s per week, 150 Th/s per month. And that's just from a single person assembling Minirigs. So, it basically depends on their supply of components, which they've had problems with. AM need their wafers as soon as possible or those Minirigs could destroy AMs network share. |
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just ignore him, he wants to drive the price down so that he can buy cheaper shares.
Whereas you just want to drive the price up so you can sell them and make a nice fat profit, caring not the slightest for what they're actually worth. |
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Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices.
I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously.
You forget that ASICMINER has had an enormous head start against the competition. I don't see how that will help them though because their ASICs are weak compared to BFL's. For example, in order for both companies to increase the difficulty by about 1 million, the following number of devices would need to be bought online each day: 1 x BFL minirig, or 715 x Blades Their new chips will likely be at worst, competitive with BFL and at best, competitive with Bitfury and KnC. They're not supposedly due till October though and by then, BFL should be almost through its backlog and KnC should be a month into shipping. Hopefully, BitFury based systems will be also be available for purchase as well. Including what's already online and what's set to come online, AM have 250 Th/s, Avalon have 250 Th/s (including 150 Th/s from chip sales), BFL have 400 Th/s. Both Avalon and BFL will be continuously be ordering chips for sales. I don't think AM will order any more chips though until the next gen. Devices from third party manufacturers should outnumber devices from ASIC manufacturers, simply due to their being more of them. Third party manufacturers will ensure that there's enough assembly capacity to handle the supply of chips. Again , comparing a future product with superior feature to a current product in the market is not making any sense for me . And most people ,in this thread may not interest in mining by their selves. Again a misleading comparison .... You compare the price of the devices has nothing to do with our shareholder . You order your super machine from BFL , you wait at home day by day...you received your machine ,you set -up. one day your girlfriend spill water on it ,your super miners broken ,you investment is gone .... For us , we invested today , we receiving money each week , we can sold it anytime we want... Please stop comparing those two totally different things , this make non-sense at all... BFL don't have super machines, but they do have better ASICs than AM and Avalon. BitFury currently have the best though. Those ASICs all exist right now. To pretend that they don't is just silly. Ignoring the implications of that can only lead to making poorly informed decisions, like paying too much for shares. |
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Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices.
I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously.
You forget that ASICMINER has had an enormous head start against the competition. I don't see how that will help them though because their ASICs are weak compared to BFL's. For example, in order for both companies to increase the difficulty by about 1 million, the following number of devices would need to be bought online each day: 1 x BFL minirig, or 51 x Blades Their new chips will likely be at worst, competitive with BFL and at best, competitive with Bitfury and KnC. They're not supposedly due till October though and by then, BFL should be almost through its backlog and KnC should be a month into shipping. Hopefully, BitFury based systems will be also be available for purchase as well. Including what's already online and what's set to come online, AM have 250 Th/s, Avalon have 250 Th/s (including 150 Th/s from chip sales), BFL have 400 Th/s. Both Avalon and BFL will be continuously be ordering chips for sales. I don't think AM will order any more chips though until the next gen. Devices from third party manufacturers should outnumber devices from ASIC manufacturers, simply due to their being more of them. Third party manufacturers will ensure that there's enough assembly capacity to handle the supply of chips. |
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Okay guys, I've been reading a lot of questions concerning the recent increase in stock prices and all sorts of questions regarding the stock being under- or overvalued. Here is my take on the issue: Let's take the average dividend payed each week so far: 0,016358593 btc and multiply it by 52 to get an expected total dividend payment for a year. That leaves us with: 0,850646817 btc. Now if we divide this by the current share-price of 3,42 we get ~24,87% as the dividend yield for one year. This is exceptionally high compared to usual company stocks and might thus explain the surge in share prices in the last weeks. Of course, good news such as price reductions for mining hardware etc. play a big role here, too. Now there are obviously several problems with this explanation: - I assume that ASICMINER is indeed capable of keeping their share of the overall hashrate constant over the next year, despite other companies starting to ship their mining hardware.
- I furthermore assume that proceeds from hardware sales will stay roughly the same. I believe this is possible if asicminer reduces prices while increasing the supply, reaching more customers in the process (as they started to do with the latest announcement)
- 24% dividend yield might actually not be unreasonably high, given the risks involved when investing in this company.
- Assuming one bought BTC for fiat in the first place and still keeps the option of exchanging btc back to fiat in mind, we face (severe) exchange rate risks of our Fiat Currency vs. BTC.
- Investors face relatively high counter party risk, as asicminer does not provide much information about anything. Also, if one is holding pass-through shares, he faces additional counterparts-risk for the intermediary
- Investors face regulatory risk at multiple points: btc mining company, btc stock exchange, btc currency exchange etc.
- Investors also face classical operational risks such as datacenter / mining-site destruction, electricity shortages, hardware failures etc.
- Investors further face classical market risk, that is the risks of volatile share prices on the exchanges
Everyone interested in investing in ASICMINER (pass-throughs, direct shares,.. whatever) should keep this in mind and must assess the risks themselves. Eventually, every investor has to decide whether he thinks the dividend yield and potential profits from selling the shares at a higher price are worth the high risks. In this sense, one should think of the dividend yield as a risk premium for holding the shares. If you think the risk premium is high enough - invest now. If you do not think so, don't (but I dare you to complain if share prices go up even further  ). Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices. I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously. |
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To increase the difficulty by 1,000,000, there needs to be an increase of 7.143 Th/s. That's corresponds to:
15 x BFL Minrigs
143 x BFL 50 Gh/s
286 x BFL 25 Gh/s
1,429 x BFL 5 Gh/s
86 x Avalon 4 Module 84 Gh/s
114 x Avalon 3 Module 63 Gh/s
21,259 x ASICMiner Block Erupter USB 336 Mh/s
715 x ASICMiner Block Erupter Blade 10 Gh/s
If 1 BFL Minirig comes online per day, that will cause difficulty to increase by 1 million.
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The best method, which was not listed, would be in stock directly from the manufacturer.
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I find it quite hilarious that people need to resort to "ignore" because they can't refute the maths and can't bear hearing the truth. This is an ASICMINER speculation thread. Just because I'm speculating that share prices will go down and providing mathematical evidence to support my reasoning, that does not make me a troll, it makes me an active participant.
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Who cares? I'm talking about buying now, not during AM's IPO or 1 year ago.
I care, because it completely negates your whole argument that buying BFL was/is more profitable. How does it? If you buy a BFL now and an AM share now, the BFL miner will generate profit from mining income before the AM shares will generate profit from dividends. That's a fact. |
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let's see, .1 btc 8 months ago turned into 3.72 btc with AM.
How many btc did you spend 8 months ago with BFL? And it has done nothing.
Seriously, I am selling some prime, fresh, top shelf, high quality, authentic nothing cheaper than anyone else!
Get your nothing , here! Hot Nothing for sale!
Can you not read? I never placed an order with BFL 8 months ago - so I spent nothing. I did however place an order for a 5 GH/s miner with BFL in April and it cost me 1.6 BTC. It was also around that time that I started buying shares in various stock. |
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No, my hope is for July based on 400 units per day, before the end of August is pretty much a certainty.
kinda like them delivering in March? hahaha  I see you like to buy nothing vs buying something. I tell you what, I'll sell you nothing for cheaper than BFL sells it. No not at all like that. They're currently shipping all their products, and are currently into September's orders for Jalapenos. You can keep ripping on BFL as much as you want but I'm not some arse licking fanboy so I don't care. I have orders and shares with numerous mining companies and stocks. My argument is not that BFL are godlike and deserve to be worshipped. My argument is that AM is currently overpriced. |
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since your shares are so worthless, I'm sure you won't have a problem selling them to us cheap, right?
I' never said they're worthless, I said they're currently overpriced. |
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The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.
I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right? Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable...  Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order. Let's compare then smart arse. AM 3.3 BTC per share 400,000 shares 0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic) 110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs 5 Gh/s BFL 274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC 0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs 0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths. If you can sell your AM share for more than 0 BTC after 770 days, then you have no argument. You can't know the price of AM in 770 days, but it likely won't be 0 BTC. Additionally, you can't know the future difficulty so why bother with your pointless simple math. Why would you want to sell your shares if they're so great? Sure, you can sell your AM shares and then make an actual profit. You could have bought a new miner by that point if you went with BFL though and would be making even more profit. The point of those examples was to show that even at stupidly high difficulty, which we probably won't see for a few years, BFL still offers better value. If you buy a BFL, you will recoup the costs quicker than you would if you bought an AM share, even if it did take them a year to ship it, which it wouldn't. Wow. Just wow. Please don't invest in AM. I already have done. Just not at a stupid price. |
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So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths.
I think you are the one that needs to learn math. Profit from placing an order a year ago with BFL: BTC0 Profit from purchasing AM share at IPO: 3.4+.32 = BTC3.72 (ignores huge increase in BTC value) 0 < 3.72 Actually. Profit from placing an order for BFL 1 year ago is: Cost: 149 USD Hash rate: 4.5 Gh/s Shipping: 2013/05/18 Delivery: 2013/05/25 Difficulties: 2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 12,153,412 2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 15,605,633 20313/06/16 - current = 19,507,041 Income: 2013/05/25 - 2013/06/05 = 0.1862 BTC per day * 11 days = 2.0482 BTC 2013/06/05 - 2013/06/16 = 0.1450 BTC per day * 11 days = 1.595 BTC 20313/06/16 - current = 0.1170 BTC per day * 8 days = 0.936 BTC Total = 4.5792 BTC = 457.92 USD @ 100 USD/BTC Electricity costs: 35W 0.2 USD per kWh Daily cost = 0.35 * 24 * 0.2 = 0.168 USD Total usage cost = 0.168 * 30 = 5.04 USD Profit = 457.92 - 274 - 5.04 = 178.88 USD = 1.7888 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC |
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competition should arrive "in about two weeks", I've been told.
they told me that 8 months ago...  And what did they tell you 2 weeks ago? |
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The fact that AM could half the price of those USB stick just proves how overpriced they were. They're still incredibly overpriced though when compared to BFL, and yes, I will compare AM to BFL because I'm a miner, not a retarded fanboy who worships companies and licks the arse of their bosses.
I guess miners like you like to wait a year+ to receive their orders, right? Let's see, let's compare nothing to something, and then see which one is more valuable... Of course not. Everyone wants their miners as soon as possible. I paid 1.6 BTC for a 5 GH/s BFL in April and I'll have it in August at the latest. 4 months != 1 year. Anyone ordering now will also have to wait about 3-4 months before they get their order. Let's compare then smart arse. AM 3.3 BTC per share 400,000 shares 0.03 BTC weekly dividend (extremely optimistic) 110 weeks = 770 days to recoup costs 5 Gh/s BFL 274 USD = 2.74 BTC @ 100 USD/BTC 0.018 BTC per day with network hash rate at 1000 Th/s, 153 days to recoup costs 0.0045 BTC per day with network hash rate at 4000 Th/s, 612 days to recoup costs So, even if you did have to wait another year for your BFL miner to arrive, you'd still make far more profit from a BFL miner over an AM share. Face it, you need to go back to school and learn how to do basic maths. That's like comparing a computer from Apple to shares in Apple. One is a share in a company, the other is a product from a company. The hardware has no capability to grow or to strategically adapt, but the company has - and in my opinion you are underestimating that ability. At the end of the day I'm buying hashing power and don't care what form it takes. I'll buy which offers the best value. Currently, that's not AM even though they're the ones shipping immediately. |
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AM increasing hashing power will not automatically increase their dividends. Their hash rate has to increase at a rate greater than that of the network hash rate in order to that. yes, but it will keep their dividends stable, which will increase the share price from where it is right now. AM have also stated that they don't want to control more than a specific amount of the network share. citation required And it doesn't matter if you can resell the shares. By the time you've recouped your costs with AM, if you bought a BFL miner, you'd be able to buy a newer, cheaper, more powerful and more efficient one with the profits. The BFL alone would likely recoup the cost of the new miner before you recouped the cost of an AM share. this has yet to be true, and BFL has been selling for a year, and AM shares have been selling for 8 months. You still waiting to recoup the cost of an AM share, or me having recouped my costs and having a BFL and brand spanking new miner generating pure profit? everyone that bought AM shares under 3.4 are not waiting to recoup their cost. 99% of BFL customers are, though. Who cares? I'm talking about buying now, not during AM's IPO or 1 year ago. |
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