ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[TECHICENINE]

I find it quite hilarious that people need to resort to "ignore" because they can't refute the maths and can't bear hearing the truth. This is an ASICMINER speculation thread. Just because I'm speculating that share prices will go down and providing mathematical evidence to support my reasoning, that does not make me a troll, it makes me an active participant.

no i want anyone to prove these shares even exist in realtime now ..thanks

[Morblias]

ok, so, shares are around 3.4 right now, and USB miners are for sale, but I don't think we'll actually get any revenue for that this week.

Any bets on dividends for this week?  I'm gonna guess maybe .017.  Will a lower dividend this week cause I sell off, or have the newbies learned their lesson after the major raping they got last week?

Hash rate went up, so I am guessing around .02. Doesn't sound like any hardware sales will be on this weeks div.

[TECHICENINE]

ok, so, shares are around 3.4 right now, and USB miners are for sale, but I don't think we'll actually get any revenue for that this week.

Any bets on dividends for this week?  I'm gonna guess maybe .017.  Will a lower dividend this week cause I sell off, or have the newbies learned their lesson after the major raping they got last week?

Hash rate went up, so I am guessing around .02. Doesn't sound like any hardware sales will be on this weeks div.

do you have a link to this info?..thanks

[Morblias]

ok, so, shares are around 3.4 right now, and USB miners are for sale, but I don't think we'll actually get any revenue for that this week.

Any bets on dividends for this week?  I'm gonna guess maybe .017.  Will a lower dividend this week cause I sell off, or have the newbies learned their lesson after the major raping they got last week?

Hash rate went up, so I am guessing around .02. Doesn't sound like any hardware sales will be on this weeks div.

do you have a link to this info?..thanks

http://www.asicminercharts.com/

As for the hardware sales, that is just my speculation. Who knows, maybe they did already sell USB sticks to those distributors.

[TECHICENINE]

ok, so, shares are around 3.4 right now, and USB miners are for sale, but I don't think we'll actually get any revenue for that this week.

Any bets on dividends for this week?  I'm gonna guess maybe .017.  Will a lower dividend this week cause I sell off, or have the newbies learned their lesson after the major raping they got last week?

Hash rate went up, so I am guessing around .02. Doesn't sound like any hardware sales will be on this weeks div.

do you have a link to this info?..thanks

http://www.asicminercharts.com/

As for the hardware sales, that is just my speculation. Who knows, maybe they did already sell USB sticks to those distributors.

no ASICMINER is no longer mining there..that number refers to the BitGuild pool based here in California.. isnt them just go ask BitGuild listed at the bottom of the page..thanks

[Mabsark]

I find it quite hilarious that people need to resort to "ignore" because they can't refute the maths and can't bear hearing the truth. This is an ASICMINER speculation thread. Just because I'm speculating that share prices will go down and providing mathematical evidence to support my reasoning, that does not make me a troll, it makes me an active participant.

no i want anyone to prove these shares even exist in realtime now ..thanks

Huh?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT

[Lorren]

Question regarding ASICMINER shares:

In the last two weeks, ASICMINER shares have gone up one full BTC each per share.  I know that they're a great company and all, but why the extreme jump in price so quickly?  Am I missing something?  Were they way underpriced two weeks ago at 2.5, are they now overpriced at 3.5, or have I missed a major announcement or something in the last two weeks that has caused it to gain so much value so quickly?

[ianp]

Question regarding ASICMINER shares:

In the last two weeks, ASICMINER shares have gone up one full BTC each per share.  I know that they're a great company and all, but why the extreme jump in price so quickly?  Am I missing something?  Were they way underpriced two weeks ago at 2.5, are they now overpriced at 3.5, or have I missed a major announcement or something in the last two weeks that has caused it to gain so much value so quickly?

I am assuming (with some confidence) that the market was uncertain how ASICMINER would respond to higher network difficulty and competitors releasing products at much cheaper prices.

The price jump is largely due to the big 1000 share 2.5 wall coming down, and Friedcat's post that indicated that the USB ASICs are now 0.99 BTC rather than 1.99 BTC.

Ian

[TECHICENINE]

I find it quite hilarious that people need to resort to "ignore" because they can't refute the maths and can't bear hearing the truth. This is an ASICMINER speculation thread. Just because I'm speculating that share prices will go down and providing mathematical evidence to support my reasoning, that does not make me a troll, it makes me an active participant.

no i want anyone to prove these shares even exist in realtime now ..thanks

Huh?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT

both of these are simulations not real shares if anything ...insiders happily posting and dumping shares...one day you cant log on then what?..CHEERS

[Lorren]

Thanks!

[chkgk]

Okay guys, I've been reading a lot of questions concerning the recent increase in stock prices and all sorts of questions regarding the stock being under- or overvalued. Here is my take on the issue:

Let's take the average dividend payed each week so far: 0,016358593 btc and multiply it by 52 to get an expected total dividend payment for a year. That leaves us with: 0,850646817 btc.
Now if we divide this by the current share-price of 3,42 we get ~24,87% as the dividend yield for one year.

This is exceptionally high compared to usual company stocks and might thus explain the surge in share prices in the last weeks. Of course, good news such as price reductions for mining hardware etc. play a big role here, too.

Now there are obviously several problems with this explanation:

• I assume that ASICMINER is indeed capable of keeping their share of the overall hashrate constant over the next year, despite other companies starting to ship their mining hardware.
• I furthermore assume that proceeds from hardware sales will stay roughly the same. I believe this is possible if asicminer reduces prices while increasing the supply, reaching more customers in the process (as they started to do with the latest announcement)
• 24% dividend yield might actually not be unreasonably high, given the risks involved when investing in this company.
  
  • Assuming one bought BTC for fiat in the first place and still keeps the option of exchanging btc back to fiat in mind, we face (severe) exchange rate risks of our Fiat Currency vs. BTC.
  • Investors face relatively high counter party risk, as asicminer does not provide much information about anything. Also, if one is holding pass-through shares, he faces additional counterparts-risk for the intermediary
  • Investors face regulatory risk at multiple points: btc mining company, btc stock exchange, btc currency exchange etc.
  • Investors also face classical operational risks such as datacenter / mining-site destruction, electricity shortages, hardware failures etc.
  • Investors further face classical market risk, that is the risks of volatile share prices on the exchanges
    
    

Everyone interested in investing in ASICMINER (pass-throughs, direct shares,.. whatever) should keep this in mind and must assess the risks themselves. Eventually, every investor has to decide whether he thinks the dividend yield and potential profits from selling the shares at a higher price are worth the high risks.

In this sense, one should think of the dividend yield as a risk premium for holding the shares. If you think the risk premium is high enough - invest now. If you do not think so, don't (but I dare you to complain if share prices go up even further ).

[dhenson]

Question regarding ASICMINER shares:

In the last two weeks, ASICMINER shares have gone up one full BTC each per share.  I know that they're a great company and all, but why the extreme jump in price so quickly?  Am I missing something?  Were they way underpriced two weeks ago at 2.5, are they now overpriced at 3.5, or have I missed a major announcement or something in the last two weeks that has caused it to gain so much value so quickly?

The point that people keep missing is that the 'value' isn't based on anything except our unwillingness to sell.  You can examine any metric you want, but the real point is that we are trading on a low liquidity exchange.

When the price moves .2 in an hour it has more to do with the fact that nobody is selling, and the only asks were 1 share at the current price and the next ask being .2 away and some guy bought 2 shares.  This is only exacerbated by the fact that we are spread out over 4 different exchanges (btct,havelock,bitfunder and direct)

If nobody is selling, then the 'market' feels that the value of the stock is higher than the current bid.  I (and I'm assuming most people) are perfectly content to collect weekly dividends and let the share price rise as it may.  Even though I would make a large profit by selling at today's prices I feel confident that holding has more value than selling.

[velacreations]

Let's take the average dividend payed each week so far: 0,016358593 btc and multiply it by 52 to get an expected total dividend payment for a year. That leaves us with: 0,850646817 btc.

you have to be careful with those averages, because they don't tell the whole story.  One major part of that story is that the vast majority of dividends did not include hardware sales.  This will probably not be the case in the future.  Also, if you look at the dividends that do include hardware sales, they are making almost as much on hardware as on mining.

So, while ~.016 is probably an accurate prediction of future mining revenue, I thin it largely ignores future hardware sales.

[Mabsark]

Okay guys, I've been reading a lot of questions concerning the recent increase in stock prices and all sorts of questions regarding the stock being under- or overvalued. Here is my take on the issue:

Let's take the average dividend payed each week so far: 0,016358593 btc and multiply it by 52 to get an expected total dividend payment for a year. That leaves us with: 0,850646817 btc.
Now if we divide this by the current share-price of 3,42 we get ~24,87% as the dividend yield for one year.

This is exceptionally high compared to usual company stocks and might thus explain the surge in share prices in the last weeks. Of course, good news such as price reductions for mining hardware etc. play a big role here, too.

Now there are obviously several problems with this explanation:

• I assume that ASICMINER is indeed capable of keeping their share of the overall hashrate constant over the next year, despite other companies starting to ship their mining hardware.
• I furthermore assume that proceeds from hardware sales will stay roughly the same. I believe this is possible if asicminer reduces prices while increasing the supply, reaching more customers in the process (as they started to do with the latest announcement)
• 24% dividend yield might actually not be unreasonably high, given the risks involved when investing in this company.
  
  • Assuming one bought BTC for fiat in the first place and still keeps the option of exchanging btc back to fiat in mind, we face (severe) exchange rate risks of our Fiat Currency vs. BTC.
  • Investors face relatively high counter party risk, as asicminer does not provide much information about anything. Also, if one is holding pass-through shares, he faces additional counterparts-risk for the intermediary
  • Investors face regulatory risk at multiple points: btc mining company, btc stock exchange, btc currency exchange etc.
  • Investors also face classical operational risks such as datacenter / mining-site destruction, electricity shortages, hardware failures etc.
  • Investors further face classical market risk, that is the risks of volatile share prices on the exchanges
    
    

Everyone interested in investing in ASICMINER (pass-throughs, direct shares,.. whatever) should keep this in mind and must assess the risks themselves. Eventually, every investor has to decide whether he thinks the dividend yield and potential profits from selling the shares at a higher price are worth the high risks.

In this sense, one should think of the dividend yield as a risk premium for holding the shares. If you think the risk premium is high enough - invest now. If you do not think so, don't (but I dare you to complain if share prices go up even further ).

Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices.

I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously.

[ianp]

Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices.

I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously.

You forget that ASICMINER has had an enormous head start against the competition.

[EskimoBob]

Too fkn many "if" "but" and "maybe"'s
I still cant find any sales figures for any period of time. I do not mean "we sold 100" or what ever. This information is incomplete hence meaningless.
So they sold N units at price X. What was the cost per unit?
What is the AM's cost structure? What other cost are there?  Salary? Rent? Equipment? Transportation? Security? IT etc...list goes on.
What is spent to cover those costs. What is the future prediction of those costs?
How much they actually collected from the IPO and how much of this coin is still left? Do they have any additional liabilities? etc etc etc.

Without answers to those questions, this whole thread is pointless spit ball contest, circle jerk at best.

So, let me ask this again:

....
Who has seen AM's financial statements? Do you have access to AM's P/L, CF and balance sheet?
Can I have a copy please

[ixne]

The recent push in price is because people are realizing that there is nowhere left in the land of Bitcoin to park your coins right now except in ASICMINER. Everything else on the market is just mental masturbation or else is charging a management fee to buy ASICMINER shares on your behalf. I don't see that changing over the near to medium term. GPU miners are packing it in and buying shares as these dividends are as close as the common man will get to mining from here on out.  PMBs are a joke - if you're not making the chips, you won't get them until they're irrelevant.

I also don't think we'll see any dividends past 0.02 for months.  ASICMINER got their USB sticks and blades out the door at an almost perfect time, and now that people have been burned on hardware with no practical ROI sales will suffer until we reach some difficulty stability point. And there will be a stability point. This increase will not go on forever, eventually overhead and costs will temper the explosion.

When we do reach that point, efficiency will be king. How ASICMINER does in transitioning to more efficient chips will largely determine whether they survive.  If KNC pulls off a 28nm chip this year, expect trouble.

[TECHICENINE]

my group began marketing awareness about two weeks ago i'll have to recheck the exact day for you..if and when they uplist the shares on a real exchange(fully reporting) all these shares will be wiped clean..fun game site here imo..thanks

[Mabsark]

Something that needs to be taken into account is that there are a limited number of chips and it seems to take months to get more. These can be used for Blades to mine with or USBs to be sold. As competition increases, AM will need to use more chips for Blades to maintain a competitive share of the network hash rate. They'll have to reduce the amount of hardware they sell and they'll only be able to sell it at competitive prices.

I don't see how they can possibly maintain income from hardware sales and maintain their share of the network hash rate simultaneously.

You forget that ASICMINER has had an enormous head start against the competition.

I don't see how that will help them though because their ASICs are weak compared to BFL's. For example, in order for both companies to increase the difficulty by about 1 million, the following number of devices would need to be bought online each day:

1 x BFL minirig, or
51 x Blades

Their new chips will likely be at worst, competitive with BFL and at best, competitive with Bitfury and KnC. They're not supposedly due till October though and by then, BFL should be almost through its backlog and KnC should be a month into shipping. Hopefully, BitFury based systems will be also be available for purchase as well.

Including what's already online and what's set to come online, AM have 250 Th/s, Avalon have 250 Th/s (including 150 Th/s from chip sales), BFL have 400 Th/s. Both Avalon and BFL will be continuously be ordering chips for sales. I don't think AM will order any more chips though until the next gen.

Devices from third party manufacturers should outnumber devices from ASIC manufacturers, simply due to their being more of them. Third party manufacturers will ensure that there's enough assembly capacity to handle the supply of chips.

[SOSLOVE868]

Ignored the basic fact , most people in this thread bought their AM shares around 1.5, so the return on investment for most people here is about 55% per year, why the price go so high? This because people who want to invested in BTC stocks market and those AM shareholders are quiet bullish on its long-term succeed ,those people are not selling their AM shares to gain a short-run profit,It indeed that share price will be decrease in the future, but the problem is when ??

If AM continues maintained its past status, then it will generate 55% increase in one years time (if with reinvest than it will be higher).  
After one years time ,if Share price drop by 20% , you sold your shares at 3BTC. this mean you will get investment by X1.55 X2=  For 100BTC after one years ,those shareholders will get 2X1.55= 310.    if you sold your AM shares right now, that you only received 200 BTC, and might lose your BTC in somewhere else.(you buy pre order than you get it 1 years later )( You stupid , you bought large quantity of PMBs contracts)(You go to exchange trading your BTC, then manipulator take your COINs)  


The question is more than clear, that as long as AM maintained its current position , who ever sold their shares at discount price are stupid.

Someone saids competitor is arriving , So what ?

You trying to think that American manufactures and European manufactures can beat China in manufacture industrial ? This assumption ignored the basic fact,  Cost to producing ASICs in China is not as same as those countries.

If AM can produce a same ASIC at $2 and electricity cost at $1 per unit, then the competitor  producing its ASIC at $3 and electricity cost at $2 per unit.

What will happen ? The more the competitor producing  its products and selling those over-priced miners to people. The more loss will be made by those people who bought the miners , because the size of the cake is unchanged.  And I am sure that the cost for AM to produce their product is much much lower than foreign competitors.