He's cited exactly the same 3 bubbles as I noticed last night in a post I made on the Wall Observer thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17475939#msg17475939

The 12-hour market momentum chart for the world's only fully fungible transparent blockchain dual layer protocol asset just went positive.

Chutes deployed ?

The 6-hour market momentum chart for the world's only fully fungible transparent blockchain dual layer protocol asset just went positive.

Latest Bill Holter doom porn.

Maybe that'll improve things

Look at this. What self-preserving trader gets out of a market like that at a right angle ?

They must need the coins.

+1

People must stay calm and monitor events.

Well I sure as hell can't be bothered to wait another 3 years for things to get back to bullish. In Jan 2014 I thought it might take 6 weeks  

I'd be quicker learning the violin to concert standard for kicks.

At least there's some developments in fundamentals around the corner. (But then again, Overstock adopted Bitcoin in 2014 and it just kept tanking).

Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.

I previously thought that too but I've slightly changed my mind about this.

The 2013 bubble was a single huge run-up where the bubble burst and turned immediately into a long term bear market.

That's not happening this time.

For a start, the current "run-up" has lasted 18 months so far and has been much more sedate. It started mid-2015 off $200. There have been periodic bubbles which burst (see chart above) but unlike the 2013 spike, none of them have reversed the trend so far and having made that observation above I now have no reason to believe that this one will either. It seems to have bottom-spiked just at the right place to be consistent with previous "overheat conditions".

If it really starts to dig in past the previous spike (i.e., say in the 4000 CNY range) then I'll have to change my view obviously.

So I think the reason that it's only taken 1 week to fall below the previous spike is simply because it has far less distance to go since the growth is more natural and sustainable this time.

P.S. You can see the Huobi traders - they've taken it very quickly and confidently down to 5200 CNY but they appear scared to short it beyond that point because that would be defying the underlying trend and expose themselves to serious risk of having their shorts fried for breakfast. Lets see what happens over the next 10 days if it springs back up to the propeller "nose" or not with covering.

Well according to this analysis the bottom is around 5200, with a sharp retrace back up to the propellor "nose" which would be around 6700 CNY (~$900-$950 dollars), followed by a slow retrace back down to half the lower propellor blade (5900 CNY = $750) and then starting the next bubble from there which may go to $2000 by July.

Of course, that's just according to this analysis. You need to look at several different perspectives to get a fuller picture of the possibilities because there's no telling if this pattern will be broken or not.

It's one theory = we can follow it and see.

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

This is why I'm not too worried about the crash.

It isn't 2013 anymore. The challenges we are seeing from PBOC / manipulation / whatever are just part of growing up. Expect more. Like I said - the more knocks it takes the less harm they do.

I've been wondering about those huge gaps between the Huobi price and the rest of the market during the last month.

Ominously relevant observation from the past. Listen carefully  

Get ready for the "temporary halt on withdrawals while we fix a technical glitch" notices followed by Scottish guys pitching their tents up around Exchange HQ with "give us our bitcoin back" plackards around their necks  

rotfwl ! 

Remember - we don't know what's going on here. We don't know if it's real bitcoin that's being traded or not.

If you run an exchange it's a peice of cake to set yourself up a few hundred fake accounts, populate them with either BTC or Fiat "fake balances" and manipulate the price to kingdom come.

We don't know what the real supply/demand situation is. (In particular the "supply" bit).

It's the exchanges that are doing it themselves IMO.

Look at Bitstamp - barely moves in comparison. The Chinese exchanges must be short of bitcoin to back their registered deposits. The Gox fingerprint is there. Vertical drop-offs from nowhere and high volume buybacks at the base of each.

Could off-course be regular shorting but the extremity of it suggests otherwise to me. (Well I'm watching Huobi - don't know about the other ones).

Lets see what happens when people start trying to make withdrawals.