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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21292717 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
osmotic
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January 11, 2017, 10:06:21 PM

what price do you poeple believe we'll "stabilize" on, assuming this madness eventually stops..

I believe at about here $755 to $790.
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yugo23
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January 11, 2017, 10:08:47 PM

is crypto done??  Huh



I would love to see everyone believing so.

Everytime the whole population starts screaming that it's the end of btc, it's a long and painful moment with the price going down and down, but it also means you can buy coins cheap as fuck for when the price goes up again, and until now it has always happened.

The most funny thing is how some people are completely panicked while not even a month ago the price was yet 200$ lower.
If we break the 500$ I'll start worrying a bit. Until then it's just noise.
alphahacktivist
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January 11, 2017, 10:33:50 PM


WAR ON CHINA NOW!!



No we should thank them. They are cleaning up their exchanges and at the same time the risk of China baning bitcoin is highly reduced. If you wanted bitcoin to ever succeed this was the best that could happen imo

Care to elaborate please ?

Sure..

Nothing that comes out of china can be believed.. Not their news, not their fiat exchange rates, not their crypto exchange rates or the action of their exchanges in the market.. Maybe not even their miners?

What does china do?
They do everything they can to make people THINK that they have this great massive influence, make people believe that china is in control with their grandiose claims..

And then what? Use their exaggerated influence to MANIPULATE..
Their actual pull is much less than they make it out to be..
I wouldn't even put it past the chinese gov or the pboc to be IN ON IT because everything about the entire chinese economy is FAKE..
Propaganda..

This manipulation is bad for bitcoin.. No matter the end result, price this extreme volitility scares everyone away... This extreme volitility is also terrible for use as a currency..

The other day I said "when does BTC ever loose half it's value overnight?"
Now, it does..

Another thing..
I'm not sure of taking a side of segwit or whatever but, if segwit is what we need look who's stopping it.. China, that's who..
The greedy miners that just want ROI..
 
You know their mining advantage comes entirely from the fact that they don't mind dumping into and polluting their country by way of ground and the entire world by way of air..

They don't give a fuck how bad they fuck shit up to make the cheapest electricity possible..
They don't give a fuck how bad they fuck shit up to make the cheapest planned obsolescence electronics such as miners not to mention everything else they sell/export that is nothing but garbage in 1 year or so if that..

It is too bad that bitcoin has managed to get itself caught up in this terrible china game..

Not just bitcoin, the whole world..

Trump's trade war NOW!!
Maybe they will even give us the chance to embarrass their chincy china military..

They are sitting too many notches too high on the global pegboard and need to be taken down a few rungs including their current manipulated false influence and set them back a ways to learn their lesson..

We need to kick this toxic china influence OUT of our grand experiment of the people's financial liberty..

I hope china bans bitcoin once and for all..

China GTFO..

You think china wants anything to do with personal liberty? Think again..
This could even be a chinese special ops tactic to destroy bitcoin..

Wayyy too much perceived and otherwise justifiable influence by dirty actors..

i agree with you for the most part but id like to add that i have witnessed dozens of dormant wallet since 2011 and 2010 just suddently decides to empty their balance. this could have also put more sale on the market than buy could catch up with thus the constant new bottom we see everyday or so since we hit the ATH
rjclarke2000
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January 11, 2017, 10:38:06 PM


Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything Wink





Thank you for bringing this to our attention. I for one find this very very interesting. Good find there!
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January 11, 2017, 10:50:26 PM

id like to add that i have witnessed dozens of dormant wallet since 2011 and 2010 just suddently decides to empty their balance.

Where did you witness that?

Blockchain.info used to have a bitcoin days destroyed chart, but it's disappeared.

Is there any reputable site still providing a bitcoin days destroyed chart?
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January 11, 2017, 10:52:38 PM


Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything Wink



This is as good any any TA I have seen here of late, and reassuringly sensible.

None of the risible 'ATH in 30 days shit' just a reasonable term (with backup TA) to suppose the bull run continues over the medium term.

Respect.
BlindMayorBitcorn
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January 11, 2017, 10:57:53 PM

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

For how long? To what end?
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January 11, 2017, 11:05:47 PM
Last edit: January 12, 2017, 12:03:13 AM by 600watt

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior top. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME


edit: meant to write "top"
this is not trying to spread fud. keep calm....  oh.wait...   Cheesy
BlindMayorBitcorn
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January 11, 2017, 11:08:33 PM

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

Our only workable use-case has shown itself to be sort of unworkable. China can clamp down on capital outflow through bitcoin at the drop of a chopstick. 
eddie13
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January 11, 2017, 11:13:44 PM

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

THIS!!

And it has something to do with china..
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January 11, 2017, 11:17:12 PM
Last edit: January 11, 2017, 11:27:26 PM by toknormal


after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster....someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

I previously thought that too but I've slightly changed my mind about this.

The 2013 bubble was a single huge run-up where the bubble burst and turned immediately into a long term bear market.

That's not happening this time.

For a start, the current "run-up" has lasted 18 months so far and has been much more sedate. It started mid-2015 off $200. There have been periodic bubbles which burst (see chart above) but unlike the 2013 spike, none of them have reversed the trend so far and having made that observation above I now have no reason to believe that this one will either. It seems to have bottom-spiked just at the right place to be consistent with previous "overheat conditions".

If it really starts to dig in past the previous spike (i.e., say in the 4000 CNY range) then I'll have to change my view obviously.

So I think the reason that it's only taken 1 week to fall below the previous spike is simply because it has far less distance to go since the growth is more natural and sustainable this time.

P.S. You can see the Huobi traders - they've taken it very quickly and confidently down to 5200 CNY but they appear scared to short it beyond that point because that would be defying the underlying trend and expose themselves to serious risk of having their shorts fried for breakfast. Lets see what happens over the next 10 days if it springs back up to the propeller "nose" or not with covering.
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January 11, 2017, 11:17:17 PM

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

We all know from the very beginning this will happen on regular basis. After China many other countries will follow. But that won't stop bitcoin. It didn't stop it in the past. It will not stop it in the future. Just another buying opportunity!
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January 11, 2017, 11:35:09 PM

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

For how long? To what end?


If those are not trolling questions, then what is?    Should be pretty clear what Jimbo is attempting to accomplish, even though it may be fair to ask whether some one would buy all the way down to zero, if there was such a move towards zero..
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January 11, 2017, 11:39:38 PM

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME


You are just making up shit.. for what purpose?  

We had a 3 month price run up from lower $600s to mid $1,100s, which is about a 90% price appreciation.

So far this has been about a 34% correction from the top.. and has not crossed below previous ATH of $266 nor has it even crossed it's starting point from only three months ago...

It's gotta get a lot worse than this before it rises to the level of some kind of disaster, as you seem to be implying..


Edit:  maybe you are referring to the price falling below $780?  still, that is a kind of artificial creation that you seem to be making in order to spread a kind of FUD... ... 

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January 11, 2017, 11:46:16 PM


Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.



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January 11, 2017, 11:51:41 PM

Now that's pretty cool lol interesting too  Smiley
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January 11, 2017, 11:52:17 PM

breaking 780 would be terrible

if we ALL buy now we might delay the inevitable  Cry

and there is gose    Cry Cry Cry Cry
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January 11, 2017, 11:55:01 PM


Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything Wink



Dis look gud... Better wait to choina and see how they will react in the 2nd day
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January 11, 2017, 11:56:41 PM

Watching this for almost 4 years now, I think its coming back soon... fan correction in play  Grin probably a good time to pick up a coin or 2.
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January 11, 2017, 11:59:48 PM

Boeing 777
Wide-body jet airliner
The Boeing 777 is a family of long-range wide-body twin-engine jet airliners developed and manufactured by Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Wikipedia
Top speed: 950 km/h
Wingspan: 61 m
Cruise speed: 905 km/h
Introduced: June 7, 1995
Unit cost: 258,800,000–315,000,000 USD
Engine type: Turbofan

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