usually if you are going to off-set you will pick a different muscle group, so you can imagine that pushups are working mostly chest, probably triceps second and may only a tiny bit of shoulders.. .. I think that the most off-setting or opposite would be legs, maybe body squats of some sort.  Once I get up to an average of 100 push-ups a day then maybe i might be interested in adding something like body squats.. .. but I am thinking that priority for me is to get up to an average of 100 push ups per day, and I had not even considered that I would be able to get as high as I am right now in such a short-period of time.. and don't get me wrong.. I am mostly trying to space out my push-ups because it is a bit wearing on me and also I don't recover as well as I did in my youth.. and there is still some soreness, but the soreness is not feeling as bad as it felt the first several days... .. but still I do get some sense that I am getting stronger but also I get some sense that I have to be careful not to over do it.  I do some other exercises too.... so right now I am mostly considering that push-ups to be mostly added, even though I did catch myself rationalizing doing less of some of the other things that I do (by telling myself that I got enough exercise for the day because of the pushups being added in.. which is not untrue.. and each of us has to make sure that we don't wear ourselves out).


You don't need to tell me, but I would imagine that someone who is right around 5' 10"  (that is 70"  or 178 cm)  would be ideal weight of around 180 lbs... and that may or may not be accurate depending on your build and your muscle mass, but if we are just considering an average frame of a 67 year old male.. so that is not too bad to just have 25 lbs extra.. but yeah extra weight is not good, and it is not always easy to keep off.. and probably I would consider myself to be right around a similar level of extra weight (in terms of percentage).

I usually ignore doctors when it comes to cholesterol because the standards of care and the fat lipid hypothesis is a bunch of bullshit, so the important numbers are the HDL (which is the good cholesterol to get it above 40 for men - which surely I have never been good at that) and the triglycerides to keep that below 100... Ldl and total cholesterol are just wacky non-science based bullshit used to sell statins.

so yeah, dropping your A1C is a reflection that elderly become more and more insulin resistant.. so somehow you are getting too many carbs in your diet.. and I am not completely innocent in terms of some of the carb creep that I also get in my diet, even though I do try to make sure that I eat plenty of meat and fat in order to lessen the amounts of my cravings for carbs.


This is all good, but just don't over do it, you old fart. 

If something happens to you, then some of us (including yours truly) won't have any easy targets of guys to yell at.


I hope that you are not of the belief that red meat is bad for you or that you need to reduce fat in your diet by eating fat free and chicken breasts.. probably the chicken cuts with fat are better and if you can get non-industrial chickens that is probably better, even though almost no one seems to be caring about those kinds of things... some of the additional problems with chicken may well be the breading such as fried chicken that has breading and cooked with bad kinds of oils, even though maybe fried chicken would not be bad if it was cooked with better oils and without breading (of course with the skins.. better if the skins were of chickens that were grassfed (and bug fed - free range) .. but where you going to find chickens like that these days?).

You did not mention the kinds of oils you use to cook, but for sure reduce industrial oils in your diet, yet beef fat, pork fat,butter, ghi, coconut oil and maybe a few other mostly unprocessed oils/fats are actually good for you... and regarding the chicken, fuck chicken and chicken breasts.. there might not be very much fat in there.. . Probably there are more natural ways to raise chickens, so yeah those store-bought chicken breasts are likely not very nutritious.

Pork loin and pork ribs are good. and generally good fat. even though the fat from ruminants (such as cows, goats, lamb, and some others) are supposed to be better in terms of their meat, but then with any of the kinds of meat that we choose, any of us sometimes will make mistakes with seasoning and some of the BBQ sauces that we use might not be so great in terms of sugars and various other ingredients contained in them..


That surely is a reasonable goal, and nice that we are kind of peer-pressuring each other (and some kind of accountability).. with some of this reporting...

---

In my own little update, I have decided to add an average to my Excel spreadsheet, so at this point, I am tentatively planning to get my average to be around a 100 per day average, and perhaps try to maintain that..

So from the below chart, you will see that my average is currently at 85 per day, and sure there might be some days that I will end up bringing the average up to be above 100 per day in order to have a cushion in terms of staying at least 100 pushups per day on average until we reach $100k or I die first.. or some other negative consequence might come about in which I might not be able to continue to do as many pushups per day.. .. even if there might be some days in which I might not be in good places to be able to do many push-ups.. yet I am thinking that if I might be able to get my amounts up to 50 push ups at a time on a fairly regular basis (so far the most that I have done at once has been 40 pushups, and sure they might not be completely good form), then getting it up to 50 pushups at a time would end up ONLY causing me to have to do two sets of push ups in a day in order to reach my 100 count for the day.

Date             Total P_Ups   P-Up/D   RunTot   BTC Price
2/5/24                  50                50.00         50   $42,939
2/6/24                  70                60.00         120   $42,837
2/7/24                  50                56.67         170   $43,078
2/8/24                  90                65.00         260   $45,078
2/9/24                  100                72.00         360   $47,646
2/10/24                  120                80.00         480   $47,336
2/11/24                  115                85.00         595   $48,150

Even if it takes a decent amount of time, if it is helpful, then might it still not be a good thing to add.. and maybe some tools might only go back to certain dates, they might not all go back to 2010?  We could potentially consider the easy currencies first and maybe if we add less common currencies, then maybe those currencies would ONLY go back as far as the date that the API allows.. but yeah, it still might get down to concerns about how much time needs to be spent and whether it is worth it?  Maybe we could talk more specifically in PMs regarding how much time is "high development time?"

Just now I had to go back and look at your currency converter,

https://bitcoindata.science/bitcoin-units-converter

and I did notice that that particular converter is ONLY dealing with current price conversions and so yeah that particular converter is not providing an option for historical conversions - yet I would imagine that there would be some sites that might do some limited kinds of historical conversions?

Link or it didn't happen..


Yes. .I know you are saying "rumors," but still that is pretty vague...

What happened?  A little birdie told you?

 

I don't use notifications, and so I came across the above-cited post (14 months after it was posted) and this thread by just reading through some of the posts.. which sometimes does result in skimming rather than reading in detail. 

I do sometimes send smerits even when I don't completely understand the posts (or agree with the contents)... yet I might consider the post to potentially contribute towards someone else's thinking or that maybe it appears that interesting ideas were contained therein.

My being known for walls of text might be another dilemma.. in which there cannot be any assurances regarding future walls of text - and so long as no one deletes them, at this time, I don't have any plans to delete or edit any of them... if I do edit any of my posts, then usually such editing would be within the first hour or so of the post, and once in a while I will go back and edit something within 24 hours.  I usually do not edit my posts beyond further out than 24 hours (except in OP posts of the very few threads that I created) .. . but if I were to edit any of my posts, especially greater than 24 hours, then I would likely put some kind of an "edit" note in the post.

Everyone feels late, and you cannot do anything about that.. except for do your best to accumulate in the most BTC that you can in the most reasonable way possible, and largely you are still not late - especially since there are going to be folks just coming into bitcoin later this year, or coming into bitcoin a year and a half from now and even coming into BTC 4-10 years from now, and if you get started now or keep building up your BTC stash in terms of feeling like a relative newbie, you surely are going to be ahead of those later entrance folks.

Also who knows what the BTC price is going to be at those various later dates, including who knows if we are ever going to get into the $30ks again, even though there were fairly prominent folks waiting for the lower $30ks, and that is seeming less and less likely (even though it is not impossible that we might experience those kinds of BTC price dips, it is also seeming a bit of a fantasy to either be expecting those kinds of dips and perhaps to have had mot taken advantage of the short period of time that we did dip into the $30ks 2.5 weeks ago.


Yeah.. getting close to an all year high...   even two year high... and there seems to be some sense of where this might be going.


I am not going to claim  to know.


Maybe you can investigate and report back?  There are threads on the topic, and even some theories, but nothing really solid - except maybe considerations that many of us should attempt to prepare for situations in which we cannot count upon BTC on chain transaction fees to be low at all times, and sometimes we have to figure out ways to manage our UTXOs, especially if we might have some smaller UTXOs that we might want to consolidate.

I personally prefer the Trezor 1 and the Trezor model T over the Trezor 3.. and that is because the secure element is not open source.

I am not sure if Trezor is going to be successful in being able to launch an open source secure element.  About the Trezor 3, I think that they say that it is open source as they are able to be, but that still means that there are some parts of it that are not open source... so I still question the soundness of non-open source wallets, even though there are claims that it is good to have a secure element.


Since we are having a public conversation, I suppose that it does not hurt to repeat these websites to review various wallet possibilties.

https://www.athena-alpha.com/crypto-wallets/

https://www.athena-alpha.com/crypto-wallets/rating-methodology/

https://thebitcoinhole.com/hardware-wallets


Even the 200-WMA is going to be moving above the page count.. probably around May or June.  Lovely.


Just as a reminder, the 200-WMA is way more exponential as compared with the page count..

Absent some kind of fatal flaw in bitcoin, we have almost no way to be able to keep page count up with the 200-WMA.. and the same is true with BTC spot price... .and people (not even bitcoiners) really understand and cannot really comprehend very well exponentials.


Donkey breath is even cooler.

#justsaying

But to each his own.

You sound like one of those BIG blocker hold overs from 2017.


FTFY

There are mostly three BTC accumulation strategies, and for many folks they should not be all or nothing, especially if you are attempting to either mitigate volatility risk and/or to attempt to tailor your BTC accumulation to your own situation.

That is DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.  Of course there is HODL, also even though it does not really help to accumulate but it might remind a person not to panic in terms of selling at the wrong times, especially if in a situation of running out of money while the BTC price keeps dipping.


FTFY... As a reminder the comparison in your linked post is referring to past performance not future performance.


Long time has greater potential to give compounding and exponential value growth benefits.... not guaranteed but surely within a reasonable realm of considerations... especially with something like bitcoin...

See my recent post in which I attempt to point out bitcoin's historical compounding.


There are always ways to lose money and past performance is not a guarantee to future results, even though you are talking about anyone who mostly held their coins more than 5 years is in profits, and these days anyone who DCA's for any period of time (more than a month or two) would be in profits so long as they were consistently buying simiilar quantities of BTC at regular intervals over the whole period of time.. such as weekly.

Of course people are not necessarily consistent, so if some folks might have front loaded their investment at various times in 2021 when the BTC price is higher than now, then it would not be clear how much they would have had to continue to invest in DCA and perhaps other tactics in order to be profitable at today's BTC prices.

Overall, I agree that you, OOM, have the way better side of this argument.  Personally I have no real problem shaving off some cornz here and there around these prices, including any prices that are more than 25% above the 200-WMA, but surely we already know that BTC have a lot of historical precedence in which it has gone between 100% and 1,400% above the 200-week moving average, and right now we are merely right around 50% above the 200-WMA, we are in a point of the cycle in which the additional supply is getting cut in half, and we have way the fuck more demand than BTC that is available at these prices.. so there is ONLY so much fucking around that any of them can do in terms of keeping the BTC price down.

It is almost that we need just a 2-5X BTC price increase from here just to appease some of the ongoing demand for BTC, so sell at your own peril in these here price ranges.

Sure if the BTC price goes up another 2x to 5X from here, then surely some additional BTC is going to come onto the market, but even long time BTC HODLers don't even really necessarily need to be selling large amounts of their BTC.. maybe they can shave off 10% or 20%, but even then how much they shave off might depend on other cashflow matters that they have, and maybe if they are anticipating that BTC is not able to absorbe and continue to rise in price after another 2x to 5x from here.

Surely some folks are even more bullish to be suggesting that 10x to 20x from here is fairly easily attained, but even those guys are not suggesting that 10x to 20x from here would be sustainable in the short-term, even though many of us longer term bitcoiners realize that 10x to 20x from here is merely matching and/or double to gold's current market cap, so such prices will be easily sustainable in the future, such as later in this cycle or maybe in the next cycle... so yeah, why sell, and if you sell, why sell very much at these price or even if the BTC price might end up doing a relatively quick 2x to 5x from here within the next 3 weeks to 12 months.


I  don't really have any problem with the idea of "trading back to fiat," especially in the sense that it is likely a matter of proportion, since hopefully none of us longer term coiners are so dumb as to be selling more than 50% of our stash, and many of us likely can fuck around selling 10% to 20% and not even get into those kinds of territories of selling large quantities of our lil precious.

I am pretty sure that even my projection of BTC prices going up to $600k, my somewhat automated system would ONLY end up selling around 7.8% of my BTC stash, and sure there are likely some things that I am not accounting for, and there also might be some extra manual override sales that I could insert into the space, especially if the BTC price were to go up really fast like 10x to 20x in a fairly short period of time... but still I don't even feel very prejudiced if I were to just stick with my fairly conservative system of selling fairly small amounts at various increments on the way up.. and why get greedy, even if a large BTC price drop (such as 50-80%-ish) may well end up following a large rise (such as something in the 10x to 20x range) in a short period of time... past performance does not really tell us what will happen, even though we likely would still consult with some of the past performance comparisons to figure out what seems reasonable and plausible versus what seems like fantasy.


Hahahahahaha

You need to up your "buying nice things" game, OOM... especially if we get another 10x to 20x from here.. .even if we get another 5x, might it not feel tempting to buy some nice things.. just because you can and without hardly even feeling anything - besides pure joy and gluttony?

Get with it gentlemen.  


Yeah, but we are still in the wrong part of the cycle to be fucking around with selling.. but hey whatever, do what you like and get your 50x to 100x profits...

I am personally calculating myself around 50x but still I am not anxious to be selling at these here prices.. and yeah, I don't feel like I am in a fantasy.. but I also have a system in which I have plenty of money (meaning fiat), but at the same time, just think of already having even more money when we go from don't wake me up zone and into no man's land.. and then sales are continuing to be made an there might not be any correction, so maybe some more substantial sales could be made in the $80k to $100k arena.. but that might end up proving to be a mistake (no problem hedging though, especially in the territory of 80x to 100x profits), but still supra $100k maybe $120k to $150k might be o.k.. to shave some off.. even though that might also not be any kind of long term stopping point in the UPpity journey... .and so shaving some off on the way up.. no problem.. but that still would not justify getting excited and selling large amounts at any particular point, even if a correction might come.


Both are good.


That seems like a big so what (you been following OgNasty too much?), and sorry for their loss.. .and by the way a decent quantity of the those GOX coins are not even owned by individuals, so who cares if they sell or whatever they decide to do with their coins (or if they don't recognize and appreciate the value of mostly HODLing their coins).  The coins will get absorbed by stronger hands, once (or if) they are sold.


You better step up your "buying nice things" game, Homer!!!!!!

 

I think that you are mostly correct here, except I would describe it a little bit differently.

Fastest: is an estimate for the lowest fee to pay to get the transaction included into the next block (so within the next 10 minutes)

1/2 hour and 1 hour would be an estimate for the lowest fee to pay to get the transaction within the next 3 blocks or within the next 6 blocks respectively.

economy: I am not sure.. maybe that is to get the transaction included within the next 24 hours or so?  Anyone else want to explain "economy?"


You are not describing minimum very accurately.

minimum: I am pretty sure that means the lowest fee to pay to be able to submit the transaction without having it get purged from the mempool


They are estimates based on recent history. .so sometimes we might manually be able to get some better estimate by looking at something like the jochen website.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,30d,weight

Your choice of February 1-ish for the beginning of such supposed ETF-related bull market, seems a wee bit off...

Of course, we could use the January 10th approval or the January 11th going live of the ETF offerings, but more likely the ETF-related bull market began somewhere around mid-October.. and my memory is failing me right now in regards to what might have been the trigger for the beginning - perhaps it was the Blackrock's filing for an ETF that pretty much caused awareness of BIG money coming into bitcoin, and either good ideas to start accumulating ahead of some of those BIG players, and/or some of the BIG players themselves realized that they needed to stock up to  the extent that previously they had been negligent in their own stocking up.


Whale spotted.

 


I definitely remember, and it was at $300 per unit, and I think that I even bought some at that point... but I am pretty sure that I did not have a bitstamp account at the time, even though all of the other exchanges were kind of waiting for those $30k coins to get resolved.. ... for several hours.. so of course, as you mentioned in your second edit, the bearwhale failed for a week or two, but the bearwhale was correct for about a year.. and he could have had boughten back for $250 until the end of 2015.. but then he was fucked after that since, we did not get close to $300 again, especially after May 2016.


That is not very difficult..

right around $55k-ish... give or take $3k


- like you say. .... and that is if we are not accounting for clearly lost coins.. since if we account for some of the lost coins we likely would need a bit of a higher price to be at $1 trillion marketcap. ... to the extent that we even want to be precise in regards to attempts to ballpark market cap.


That is a fair point.

It could be a kind of an attempt at insurance for being closed for two days..

Because if there is a pump on the weekend by grass roots and then also a dump on monday by grass roots, then grass roots would be fucking over wall street (or those who are only open monday through friday.. trading hours).


I prefer to refer to him as a donkey (a donkey with donkey breath), but hey what do I know?

It is probably good to just keep to temper yourself, even if you want to invest more because when the BTC price goes up, you will likely feel a wealth effect, and sure if you can increase your DCA amount, then I am not trying to discourage you as long as you continue to have a 4-10 year or more investment timeline at the time of any BTC purchase that you make.

But, yeah, for many folks, 10% is surely not outrageous.. but investing 10% or more still depends on your overall financial situation, and for some folks 10% might be too much and for others 10% is fairly whimpy... but it still remains a good target starting framework in which guys can attempt to consider their own particular target amount.... and another thing that we likely realize is that with 10% it is still going to take 10 years to reach 1 years of worth of salary invested, which surely may well be fine for some folks, as long as you realize the ramifications of how it plays out.. so you consider short, medium and long term ramification to the best of your abilities based on what you know now and your putting these ideas into practice will hopefully make them more concrete and meaningful with the passage of time and the ongoing continued application of the ideas into practice.


Of course we are in the ballpark of 8 or 9 doublings since 2015.. as I discuss in this post.

In other words, a lot of value can come from both experiencing a variety of BTC doublings but also to experience real value compounding effects.. and even if there are no guarantees that the doublings and/or compoundings will continue in bitcoin, the ongoing debasement of the dollar and other fiats is not going away.. which continues to strengthen BTC's ongoing investment thesis.


I know that a lot of folks quibble with the idea of bitcoin as an investment, but the problem is that it is an investment and not just some technical mumbo jumbo.

Sure the technical aspects of bitcoin support it in terms of how valuable that bitcoin is as an investment, yet I cannot see how it is helpful to stop using such terms in order to better help people in regards to how they are going to invest their time, energies and/or value. .which some of that should be into bitcoin. .and surely they may likely have to consider other kinds of investments that they have in order to figure out some kind of a balance because even with bitcoin, it is likely better not to put all of our assets into bitcoin, since many of us still likely need to make sure that we are balanced in fiat systems, so we likely have to continue to make sure that we do not get reckt because we failed/refused to adequately keep a sufficient amount of value in various fiat systems... how are we getting paid and how are we paying our expenses?  are some of those expenses discretionary or are they needed in basic kinds of ways such as food, lodging, transportation and other needs/wants that we might have.


When the true emergency ends up happening, you will be glad that you have an emergency fund, and you will be especially glad if you have enough of a float that you do not have to sell any of your bitcoin before you can get back on your feet, but some times, you will end up having to dip into your BTC to sell some or part of it, and whether you could have had avoided that cannot be clear in any kind of general way since each of us should be trying to put ourselves into a position in which our emergency fund, reserves and float are of a sufficient size so that we never have to dip into our bitcoin, so the more uncertainties that we have, the more of those emergency funds we are going to need, including if we have other cashflows and other assets and/or even some people who we can rely upon as our emergency fund, but we should be trying to be realistic regarding all of these kinds of matters in terms of how much we need, and if we might be building our emergency fund and our bitcoin holdings at the same time, we might already be realizing that our emergency fund is in adequate and it does not even meet the 3 months minimum threshold.. so when we start to dip into depleting these resources and we are not replenishing our cashflow, then we should already be seeing these kinds of problems before they even strike... so we might be really screwed if we are not taking actions to increase our cashflow and/or decrease our expenses while we are able to work or whatever to make sure that we do not get into a situation in which maybe we really need the emergency fund because we are not able to work, and our expenses are rising way beyond what we had previously anticipated (perhaps due to lack of planning and preparations).

So it could well be that we should not be investing into bitcoin if we cannot get our shit together, and sure I recommend that guys are as aggressive as they can be with both getting into bitcoin and accumulating bitcoin, but if you are getting into emergency situations, you likely are engaging in gambling rather than investing and emergencies should have pretty damned low chances to happen in such a way that you have to dip into your BTC, and if you are dipping into your BTC fairly early, you are likely doing something wrong or you maybe should not be investing in BTC because you do not have sufficient disposable income and/or a stable enough of a situation to make sure that your BTC investment is protected for the next 4-10 years or longer.


Of course, even thought there are no guarantees, there is also a certain degree of latitude, which maybe shows that none of us need to be perfect or even try to be perfect, even though we likely try the best that we can to get some kind of ballpark application of practices that may well end up being directionally correct, even if there are various ways that whatever we choose to do is going to contain some flaws. 

Accordingly, bitcoin has been very forgiving to those of us who have emphasized accumulation and HODLing.. even though many of us might have had employed some smaller kinds of strategies - yet our main strategy and the bulk of our BTC (perhaps even 70-80%) is mostly just sitting in cold storage and we are adding to it at various points along the way.

So being directionally correct pays off even if there are likely to be some mistakes along the way. .and the mistakes may or may not be perceptible at the time that they are being made... there can be some questions or tensions regarding how much of a balance to keep in various accounts that we might create. .and questions about whether we can put off some expenses (defer them) or if we might spend time trying to earn more income or if we might set aside some value to prepare for dips, and how much value do we want to keep on the sidelines for preparing for dips versus just buying right away or spreading our BTC buys out over a whole week..

Of course, you still have to consider how much you are allocating to those kinds of shitty products, even if they might perform better than bonds in the developed world, you are still likely earning your interest in a pretty shitty currency that is subject to a lot of risk in terms of its real value as opposed to its nominal value... so yeah, how much to fuck around in any investments other than bitcoin could be a long and indepth discussion that probably takes us away from how we might be thinking about the value of our own bitcoin holdings and how to deal with that.. including that this tool focuses on bitcoin, but at the same time, since it is taking advantage of changes (volatility) of the dollar and likely ongoing debasement of the dollar, we can attempt to create sustainable withdrawal practices around that.. .

In which I cannot remember if we might want to add other currencies to this tool.. do you think that there might be some value in that?  I am sure some folks might appreciate looking at their own currency rather than USD (even though surely USD remains the dominant shitty fiat out of all of the various shitty fiats).

You keep framing a dichotomy between lump sum and DCA, yet even buying on the dip has a lot of potential for importance.. and I hate to narrow down too much in regards to when buying on the dip might be a better frame, except I think it should be a strategy for someone who largely already has prepared for up rather than someone who is not adequately prepared for up. 

From my perspective, the person who employs buying the dip without adequately preparing for UP is either employing a kind of gambling strategy and/or a waiting strategy.. and waiting strategies kind of annoy me because they are likely not bullish enough on bitcoin (from my perspective).

Going back to the $100k or the $113k in 6 months example, like I mentioned such a person could front load a bit (such as $70k) and then dedicate the remainder towards DCA and buying on dips and then reassess after 6 months.  So if the remainder 43.5k is divided into 2, then each of the portions would be $21.5k, so DCA could be $827 per week for the next 26 weeks, and then the buying on dip portion could perhaps be structured to go down to around $31k (which is right around where the 200-week moving average is right now... so if the guy is a bit anxious that dips might not happen, maybe he ONLY goes down to $35k.. and yeah we already know that right now it could well be possible that sub $40k might never be reached again; however, if the person is a bit more comfortable with his level of front loading, then he could structure his buying on dip to go down to $28k or something like that.  maybe the guy who decides to ONLY go down to $35k might choose buy on dips every $500 dip starting at $46,500 (presuming that his lump sum of $70k had been executed at $47k), so then that would be 23 buy orders which would be $935 each ($21.5k / 23).  Alternatively, if the guy is quite satisfied about his level of preparation for up, then maybe he starts his buy orders at $44.5k, and then has them every $1k down to $28.5k, which would be 16 buy orders of $1,344 ($21.5k /16).

My main point is just to show that buying on dips can have quite a lot of importance, especially for the guy who is already prepared for UP, but at the same time is wanting to structure some advantages in case the BTC price runs against him. .and yeah, he is not going to make any kind of killing off of buying on dips because he likely is losing way more value in his holdings from the BTC price going down rather than UP, but at the same time, he ends up employing some tactics to lower his cost per BTC, while still holding and still investing and refusing to sell, by buying at various price points on the way down in accordance with his own views of his situation that includes some calculations of odds of where he believes the BTC price is and where it might go and without being so cocky as to presume that he knows the answer but at the same time putting his money where his mouth is.


I doubt that a financial advisor is going to be helpful for most people who are able to interact with a forum like this, unless they are just wanting to get sold on inferior ideas and inferior products, and sure there might be some financial advisors who will be ready, wiling and able to provide accurate advice that includes BTC accumulation and maintenance strategies, but a lot of them are likely wanting to get their clients into products that justify their fees.. .. and don't get me wrong, I am not against knowledge and/or brainstorming with folks.. but I would think that there are likely better ways to spend time, even though surely many people are busy with their own lives too.. so they might end up not spending enough time in regards to some kinds of knowledge that should be fairly easily within their grasp.. and sure consult with a financial advisor, but also consider preparing for any such consultations in order to really be able to engage in critical thinking during any such consultation rather than getting sold some good, products or even advise against bitcoin and into shitcoins that may well not be financially good for you.


For sure, for anyone who has BTC accumulation goals, when in doubt DCA, it is likely superior to both lump sum and buying on dip for the vast majority of folks, especially in their earlier stages of building their BTC holdings, especially since an overwhelming number of normies do not even have any kind of realistic option of lump sum (without devolving into gambling) and if they do have some lump sum available, it may well even be better to figure out some kind of a DCA way to strategize their lump sum that would not just be putting it all in at once which might convert them into a waiting strategy, especially if they over do their lump sum from the beginning.. ..

And, any how, DCA can become even more powerful when supplemented with lump sum and buying on dips, yet we would still have to presume some abilities to incorporate those lump sum and buying on dips, which tends to be some kind of lump sum being available or perhaps some sufficient level of already having had bought BTC in order to justify already largely being prepared for UP... so the punchline, when in doubt DCA, structure your DCA to a reasonable level of your disposable income (and maybe you have to adjust up and down on a weekly basis depending on cashflow variations), and don't be waiting around, especially when it comes to BTC and making sure (at all times) that you are sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP... even if the BTC price is dipping and continuing to dip, make sure to continue to prepare for UP.. which DCA does seem to help in accomplishing such.

I feel real good about my whole system, and I don't even feel that bad about my mistakes - except just to sometimes realize how our perspectives change, and even when I analyze some of my past behaviors, I will sometimes see some of the behaviors, practices and mindset differently now as compared to when I was doing some of them, and it is not like I could have had changed what I was doing at the time, and maybe even with after the fact knowledge there still is no real way to change what you might have been doing, but it is just that your perspective changes, and I am not even sure if it becomes more enlightened later, or maybe it was more enlightened at the time that I was doing it.. because some of my framings were different, and so for example, I did not really become obsessed with the 200-Week moving average until maybe in the last 4-5 years.


In recent times, this thread is becoming difficult to keep up with.


It is nice to see that quite a few members are interacting with this thread, and also they are attempting to put some kind of a personal variation of ongoing and persistent BTC accumulation, and I still think that some of these guys could end up getting burnt if they are not working towards making it through a whole cycle, and surely there are quite a few guys that are going to need a couple of cycles before they might be in a position to really start to move away from regular and ongoing BTC accumulation.

Of course, each guy has to decide for himself, and some of the mistakes can be anticipated, which largely end up boiling down to either stopping and/or slowing down on the accumulation and/or selling too many of their coinz too soon...  and so each guy has to figure these things out for himself and also anticipate the temptations to make certain kinds of mistakes like that.. and perhaps maybe sometimes the solution might be to modify the DCA amount or to otherwise consider the cash situation in order to continue with the DCA.. ... but of course, even guys who might have ONLY been accumulating $10 per week, and who might have invested $5,200 into bitcoin after 10 years, they may well start to feel that their BTC holdings have become quite large and that their ongoing contribution of $10 per week is not enough to make a difference.. so sure, they might be correct that they might be better off starting to put their $10 per week in some other place.


Fair enough.


There are going to be temptations to either sell or to stop accumulating BTC.. and there is ONLY so much anyone else can say to stop guys from doing that, and sometimes it does end up working out for them.. .. and so it could become even more difficult for someone who just got into bitcoin in the past 3-4 months since October 2023, but it may also be quite likely that their stash is way too small and even if someone front loaded his investment, it may well be problematic to try to employ selling techniques.. even though it is tempting.. and I cannot say when it might seem rational to start to employ such techniques of selling, even though historically I have given some examples of someone who might have had been into bitcoin for a few years, and not quite a whole cycle, and who did a lot of front running and even extra buying in the 2022 dip period, so there could be some cases where it starts to seem a bit more ambiguous when guys have accumulated a lot of BTC and they might have over did their accumulation in 2022,

so they have already justified shaving off some profits, even though BTC may well be in a very good bullish posture and at a later date, they may well be regretting their decision to shave profits... and so maybe that ties into why I frequently will talk about a kind of formula that is shaving very small amounts of profits and they are not being shaved in order to buy back, but then there is also a kind of presumption that the BTC allocation that they guy had reached is way more BTC than he needs, so he is not even wanting to buy more BTC, so that when he shaves off some BTC, he is not expecting to buy back.. so that is kind of the standard that I start to consider it acceptable to start shaving off BTC even when there is a quite large odds that the BTC price will keep going up.

There does not need to be any kind of either or mindset, and you (Gormicsta) even mentioned earlier that guys should be attempting to align their strategy to their various goals.

And, so yeah, let's take that person with $100k.  What else do we know about him?  Maybe we can imagine that the $100k  is some kind of proportion of his overall investment portfolio, and he might be inclined towards front loading his BTC investment or maybe he just wants to get his investment out of the way so that he does not have to think about it. 

Well, if he had already told himself taht he is ONLY going in for $100k and that's it, then he has a very narrow way of thinking

We might imagine that he might want to take that size of investment into bitcoin because he wants to put 25% of his total investment portfolio into bitcoin.. so maybe his investment portfolio is $300k and if he puts $100k of bitcoin then BTC becomes 25% of his investment portfolio.

Personally I like the idea of front loading but also considering various ways to supplement any investment.  Maybe a guy like this has $100k plus he has a cashflow in which he could invest $500 per week into bitcoin for the next 26 weeks (so that would be an additional $13k)  The three categories that he has to consider for the $100k is DCA, buying on dips and lump sum.  Based on his $13k coming in in the next 6 months, he could divide into three parts which might be $33,333 in each part, or he could take some other approach.. to maybe include his cashflow into the calculation which would be $37,666 for each of the three parts ($113k / 3).  But yeah if he is a bit anxious to get in, then maybe  he puts something like $70k into front-loading by lump sum buying and the other two parts of buying on dip and DCA might therefore be $21.5k each ($43k/2). 

There are a lot of creative ways to calculate how much cash you have available now and account for your cashflow and also account for being prepared in case the BTC price goes down instead of up.. but sometimes people are so determined that the price is ulitmately gong up that they do not mind just front loading all of it and not preparing for down or sideways and their cashflow does not matter as much as it does to people who might rely more on cashflows rathe than money that they can move around from other investments. 

I think that sometimes it can take a real long time for some of the most basic of ideas to become widespread, understood and put into practice.

I think that the tool can still be considered as a BIG deal to the extent that it can help any of us to better appreciate how BTC may well have a sustainable withdrawal rate that is much higher than other assets, and I think that it remains pretty bold for me to be arguing that bitcoin may well have a sustainable withdrawal rate of 6% to 10% as long as you follow the rules of the tool.

There are a lot of people who want to start to apply the tool , but they are either not yet at a stage in their BTC accumulation that this kind of  sustainable withdrawal makes sense or they are not to point in which they can set aside a certain quantity of BTC (such as my 21 BTC example) and just start applying the sustainable withdrawal to a budget, which also is likely to be very powerful to use this tool for such a purpose.\


Even though I have been spending quite bit of time thinking about the 200-week moving average in the last 5 years or so, the foundation for our next tool (that we are still having troubles imagining how to design it in a way that is better than the google/excel spreadsheet), that one is based more on just raking profits on the way up and then speculating about buying back upon certain dips and assigning probabilities to the likelihood of such dips would be hit.  


Even though you can get the idea of compounding from various dollar-based interest/dividend bearing accounts, I consider it to be misleading to rely upon interest and/or dividends in order to understand the concept of compounding (even though there is nothing wrong with the chart in terms of nominal terms), but if we are thinking about the matter in real terms rather than nominal terms, we still have to consider bitcoin's value appreciation in relation to the dollar.  

So bitcoin does not have any dividend or interest, yet there is no need to put bitcoin into an account held by a third-party in order to get interest and/or dividends because historically bitcoin's dollar value has gone up greater than an overwhelming number of dollar-based investments, so the amount of bitcoin's value going up compounds upon itself without having to get interest upon it.  

Sure, there is no guarantee that bitcoin will continue to go up in value in ways that outpace the devaluation (and debasement of the dollar), but the odds seem quite high that bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value way greater than the dollar debases (even if you include interests (or even compounding interest) that you might earn on holding your value in such depreciating asset/currency like the dollar).

For example, even just looking at where bitcoin was in 2015, we can see that there have been about 9 doubling of bitcoin's value events (in terms of it's dollar value) and yeah some retracements but still we are currently still around 8 doublings since 2015 (that is ONLY a little more than 8 years).

1) $250  (2015)

2)  $500  (2015-2016)

3)  $1,000    (2016-2017)

4)  $2,000  (2017)

5)  $4,000  (2017-2020)

6)  $8,000   (2017-2020)

7)  $16,000  (2017-2022)

8 )  $32,000  (2021-2023?)

9)  $64,000  (2021-?)

10)  $128,000  (?)

Historically, those value appreciations in bitcoin have been way greater than the debasement of the dollar even if someone were to have had paid you 10% interest on the dollars that they were holding for you, it still would have had been better for you to keep your value in bitcoin even if no dividends or interest had been paid by keeping your value in bitcoin and stored by yourself in isolation.

Even if there are no guarantees of future results bitcoin is sound money and thus Bitcoin is designed to pump forever.. and maybe another way of saying it, is that bitcoin is the most pristine of assets and/or the soundest of monies.. so good luck holding your value somewhere else and expecting your money to appreciate and/or hold its value as well as if you were to keep your value in bitcoin, even if you are not getting any dividends and/or interest in nominal senses, you are getting appreciation of the asset in real terms  - again not guaranteed but pretty damned highly likely to have better value retention in bitcoin, especially if you account for the ongoing, persistent and consistent irresponsible behavior of the dollar and all other fiat-based systems.

For some strange reason, I feel kind of lucky too...


Yet that meme was aimed at any of the institutional players  who might be engaging in some kind of fractional reserves with king daddy.  They might end up getting their lil selfies into some kind of trouble.

Another thing.. remember those guys preparing for lower $30ks, and we barely even touched upon $38.5k?  We might need to pour one out for some of them.

And, yeah, they might be still waiting.. and yeah, they might end up being right (correct), but I surely would not want to be waiting or hoping for lower BTC prices........this even could be a pretty decent spot in which fomo is created.. and even getting a $10k candle would not be out of the question.  I just am not sure if we have had enough consolidation to actually get through no man's land, in the event that we get into it. .which is the $55k to $82k-ish price range... Maybe if we go slowly up to $55k or even $58k gang....

and then maybe at some point in the middle of no man's land we might experience our first daily $10k candle.. It would not be out of the question.. even though surely we cannot really rely upon such a thing happening.. but can you imagine how many of the folks who have been slowly trying to figure out if they were going to get into their ETF or whatever inferior product to get their lil selfie some bitcoin exposure, yet they still might not feel like they were getting in fast enough.. just arm chair philosophizing (speculating).


Lookie, lookie at Phil.   


Talking to his lil selfie.

it still would end up in the user input data so then would end up affecting the results of the output, and I would imagine the default would be zero, so the user would need to select either a percentage and/or a fixed amount.

Which kind of reminds me of what I consider to be a more important feature that is currently not present which is the user's ability to share his inputs, so that if he provides a link to someone they could optionally see his inputs...

Each of these DCA cites allow for the copying and sharing of results based on inputs.

https://dcabtc.com/

https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin

https://costavg.com/


Fair enough.


I am not sure exactly what you mean, here.  If we are in the middle of a month and working through our monthly limit, of course, the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA is changing throughout the month, so a lot of times if we are just considering that we do not go over the authorized BTC withdrawal amount for that particular month, then that amount should stay consistent as long at the BTC price is at least 25% or higher than the 200-WMA so we can keep track of our various withdrawals until we reach our monthly limit or we could just do them all on one day for the whole month.

On the other hand, if we are going to perform some kind of an withdrawal of advance months, then the number of months that we are authorized to withdraw in advance might have a short period of time that it is possible to accomplish based on if the BTC price moves into a certain range that authorizes additional months to withdraw in advance.  There could be discretion regarding how to accomplish the withdrawals and at which price point, and the user would have to keep track of how he is carrying out such record keeping and keeping himself within the parameters of the guidelines of the rules of the tool (if he were to choose to try to follow the rules of the tool..including that if I were to authorize you joker_josue to withdraw from an account that we establish within the confines of the tool, then if you want to stay compliant, you would be restricted to the amounts within the parameters of the rule...and we could plug in our 20.5 example for that... .

Bitmover and I have already been discussing some of the difficulties with the tools ability to capture the exact spot price upon hitting refresh or at any specific time of the day, and as a tentative resolution we had agreed to showing BTC's price range for any selected day (and bitmover is still working on adding that) and I am not sure if having that feature will completely resolve the issue of trying to figure out at what price on the upside a person might be triggered to withdraw additional months or perhaps on the downside at what price the withdrawal amount might enter more restrictive territories.... and perhaps some of the calculations might need to be carried out manually for someone who had gotten used to using the tool and understanding how it works in line with familiarity with the formulas that are contained to trigger changes in the monthly withdrawal limit thresholds.


Consistent withdrawal over time would be a different tool.  Admittedly as long as the BTC price is more than 25% over the 200-WMA, the monthly withdrawal amount in terms of BTC will be the same in terms of BTC amount, but surely not in terms of dollar value.  Also the further the price is above the 200-WMA, the more months in advance become authorized for withdrawal, and I think that it would be prudent to take advantage of those guidelines, especially once the BTC price starts to get into % territories (such as higher than 400% above the 200WMA) that are authorizing 23 months in advance and more...and yeah there could be some accounting difficulty in regards to doing that, but it is still recommended to follow...especially if there are preferences to cash out BTC during the higher prices rather than during lower prices... and even though the tool is giving guidelines and I am recommending to take advantage of those guidelines, each person has discretion if he does not want to follow the guidelines, unless you happen to be someone who is mandated to follow the guidelines, if we go back to the example that I give you a budget and require you to spend within the guidelines.


I am not sure what you mean here.

That is a pretty bearish timeline, and sure you might be right, but jeez.. you seem to be lacking imagination..and perhaps even lacking an understanding in regards to how little BTC liquidity is currently available or able to continue to absorb ongoing demand.

Yeah, we hear about all of these possible coins coming onto the market (MTGOX, fed sales of confiscated, attacks on miners), but I have difficulties understanding how the BTC price is able to stay down in these conditions even if there are seeming attempts to talk HODLers out of their coins.

Ultimately the liquidity that includes the ongoing ETF demand on coins has to be absorbed by real coin purchases, and I cannot see how some of the sheisters would be able to get away with too much fractional reserves without running the risk of really getting burnt badly.

So yeah, go ahead punk (not referring to you, SR)... try fractional reserving dee cornz.

I am not against your idea of walking, but you likely need some resistance training too, and pushups are good for that...and sure there might be some guys who have to substitute the kind of resistance training that they can do... but walking is not generally considered resistance training and sure it is better than nothing, but if that is the only exercise that you do and you get old, you might have some difficulties keeping up enough muscle mass... yes some parts of exercise might not feel good, especially if some of us might have had periods of less activity or maybe even neglecting certain kinds of exercises that remain important even if we might not feel like doing them... but of course, it is up to you if you are able to do any resistance training, I think that would be more in the spirit of the idea, even if you might not like the idea of pushups, you surely can substitute... such as body squats or stairs.. but stairs might ONLY be borderline resistance training.

Here are my to-date push-up numbers:

Date   Total P_Ups   RunTot
2/5/24   50             50
2/6/24   70             120
2/7/24   50             170
2/8/24   64             234