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1921  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Correlation between mining costs and Bitcoin value and ecological nightmare on: June 28, 2011, 11:14:12 PM
Sorry, I find that funny.  Surplus energy - not really.  Most systems use some kind of fossil fuel and they would prefer to hold it until someone places enough alue on it to consume it.  They are not likely to throw away money on mining.
Oh but surplus energy does exist - I happen to live in a country where about 60% of the electricity is generated by hydropower-plants and they are not turned off at night just because electricity demand drops. Instead they built lots of pumped storage systems to salvage at least some part of the surplus energy to use during daytime.

Going a bit off topic - I too live in a country with greater than 60% hydro electricity, and I am aware of the pumped storage systems around the world too.  However, they cost serious money and they would prefer not to use it if they could avoid it.  Pumped storage is used because it's a lower cost option, not because the electricity is "spare".
1922  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: SO if people sell off their coins the price will drop and......... on: June 28, 2011, 09:49:43 AM
Even if someone came along with the new 12Peta-flop computer (somewhere in japan), the difficulty changes so that six block per hour are generated (300 coins/hr) until half the coins are mined (Jan 2012).  The the reward drops to 25 coins per block, with difficulty again resetting each two weeks (?might be 10 days - can't be bothered looking it up) for the next four years and the cycle repeats.  These are basic rules of the game if you didn't know. 

Point is, a new super computer or any individual is not going to corner the bitcoin market.
1923  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Is it OK to join a pyramid scheme if you're in early? on: June 28, 2011, 09:44:51 AM
Well argued.  Adding to the "moral" point, when you join early you have a reasonable expectation that there are other people who might join.  After a few rounds, the later adopters should not have the same expectation.

Here, if it is a binary tree it doesn't expand too quickly, but after the first few cash out (say 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 15 people) then you need another 16 for the next layer.  So while, in general terms, haf win and half lose, the game changes each round.  Also, the incentives change as those entering late try to get others to join - the argument might be different along the lines of "500 people have git double, if you and 1000 others join and get 2000 people to come in, then you can double too."
1924  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Correlation between mining costs and Bitcoin value and ecological nightmare on: June 28, 2011, 09:26:57 AM
Sorry, I find that funny.  Surplus energy - not really.  Most systems use some kind of fossil fuel and they would prefer to hold it until someone places enough alue on it to consume it.  They are not likely to throw away money on mining.

On the flip side, there is a computing community that computes for nothing - I've swapped over for a while - and when it becomes too expensive to mine, I'll probably go back because mining is not very interesting.
1925  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Which OS do you use? on: June 28, 2011, 12:12:54 AM
Good idea to have a poll.  Might be interesting to see how skewed the population is compared to other large computing communities (eg Boinc - they have stats on OS and hardware).

Might also have been fun to include legit versus pirate on the list.
1926  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Correlation between mining costs and Bitcoin value and ecological nightmare on: June 28, 2011, 12:09:52 AM
The power might be 50MW or 500MW (doesn't really matter how much) because that determines the cost of production, but not the price someone is prepared to sell at.  Normally people like to make a profit, but that's not always the case, especially when there is a fixed/variable relationship.  So for the short-run cost (SRMC), if you can sell with a margin, you should, if not, don't.  You might choose to stock-pile or cease production.  At some point the transaction fee per block is supposed to become material when the coin reward is not.

Those that can produce cheaply will, those that cannot won't.
1927  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Enough with the elitist crap on: June 27, 2011, 07:04:53 PM
Adding to the OS war, it could be that many users are running pirate copies of W7 and don't get updates.  Linux is "free" by comparison and some who have more time to spend learning two or more OS prefer the flexibility.  I know lots of people who like Linux because of the front end (like gnome) and it makes it like a windows computer - they couldn't use Linux it they tried.

As for the elitist crap that swirls around - there is heaps.   May as well start a Mac vs PC war as well.
1928  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 27, 2011, 09:27:31 AM
Maybe John is just a doom-sayer because he's worked out some people are psychologically drawn to negative statements.  (plus I think his web site is hilarious)
I come across experts and their forecasts all the time.  Even this week I was re-reading an informed forecast of oil prices that suggested USD25 was an extreme value for the future (written in 2003).  Similarly, I have forex gurus tell me the cross rate to the USD should mean revert to the ten year average with no basis or likelihood.  If there is a fundamental, that's great, but saying it will crash (or anything else) is speculation on its own - certainly at this point in time.
1929  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: So, how many of you were hoping the price would fall off a cliff? on: June 27, 2011, 08:49:40 AM
Other exchanges were not going crazy, so anyone could have simply transferred out rather than trading out.
1930  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Advice for a mining newbie -- is it worth it? on: June 27, 2011, 02:36:33 AM
Get the GPU card - it will work as a fan heater for the apartment in winter.
1931  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Anyone had a fire !?!? on: June 27, 2011, 02:34:56 AM
I was thinking about this last night and came to the conclusion that it would be very difficult for a major fire.
Most likly thing to happen would be the PSU/GFX/CPU goes pop then the computer turns off.

If it does turn into a fire then its sealed inside the metal case and there isnt exactly that much fuel inside there for the fire to consume so it would burn out quickly.

I was thinking about this again too.  I had a computer where the flames exited the case.  Sure it was a spectacular bang, but if there had been anything flammable above the computer at the time it would have gone up in flames too.  Smiley
1932  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How Many Bitcoins do you own? on: June 26, 2011, 10:01:13 PM
17.5 - only been playing with bitcoin a few weeks.  Hindsight and all that.
1933  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Newbie restrictions on: June 26, 2011, 09:47:22 PM
Yes, others are still shut out.  I'm still waiting for the next go-around on verification.  Tedious.
1934  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Make it 100 posts to get out of here. on: June 25, 2011, 10:53:08 PM
Well, if there are mods, they will be very busy.  This forum looks full of people who just stir others and/or spam.  Hard to find the worth-while information amongst the dross.  Still, there are some blatant frauds as well, but a lot of people tend to knock those down too.
1935  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: SO if people sell off their coins the price will drop and......... on: June 24, 2011, 06:26:57 AM
Yes, it is basic economics in two parts.

Supply/demand balance for bitcoins - more supply, lower price, and,
If the cost to produce is more than the value someone else is prepared to pay (now or future), production will be slowed.
1936  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Anyone had a fire !?!? on: June 24, 2011, 05:43:54 AM
Short answer "YES"

I had a server (Dell2650) with an expansion card running a GPU.  The power connection from the motherboard to the card caused it to over heat slowly and burned the fibreglass board and plastic connections.  Filled the house with smoke and the family was very unimpressed.  Took a week for the smell to clear.
1937  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Is it OK to join a pyramid scheme if you're in early? on: June 24, 2011, 05:40:39 AM
Pyramid schemes are illegal in almost every jurisdiction I know - even between consenting people.  If idiots want to lose their coins there, you could just give them away.  They are a scam.
1938  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Introduce yourself :) on: June 21, 2011, 10:28:05 PM
username kind of says who I am.  Based in New Zealand and having fun reading the flames of the Mt.Gox disaster - those people should be welcomed to the real world if they think getting regulated exchange protections from a market system like this.  Smiley
1939  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Newbie restrictions on: June 21, 2011, 10:25:26 PM
Useful to have restrictions on newbies (I feel old to be one, but that's fine). 
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