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1941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO! on: August 13, 2021, 08:02:13 PM
Imo covid wasn't te reason ... as you say... a last max fear moment

Testing the strong hands Smiley
1942  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2021, 10:12:15 AM
https://cryptonews.com/news/argentina-s-president-calls-crypto-a-hard-currency-that-can-11424.htm
1943  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 05:21:03 PM
Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Compared to "the prophecy", it doesn't look like it'll take 20 years at least  Wink



Conservative statistics are more reliable than prophecies however  Wink

That’s true…. Though 20-ish years seems long for an asset as BTC in a market as today… I expect faster considering circumstances of today
1944  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 04:52:39 PM
Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me  Smiley
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  Cool

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast….  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
1945  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 04:51:01 PM

https://twitter.com/sophiamzaller/status/1425841088791781381?s=21
1946  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 04:19:25 PM


The Dude = ready
1947  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 02:53:29 PM
50k again will taste sweet  Cool
1948  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 01:42:45 PM
...

A Dutch family traded ALL of their liquidity for Bitcoin (and some s**t) when BTC was at $900.  They have six hardware wallets stored in various places around the globe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/bitcoin-family-hides-bitcoin-ethereum-and-litecoin-in-secret-vaults.html


There is a remark by Chainalylsis in the article that they calculate an estimated 3.7 million BTC are lost.  It would useful for us to KNOW, but that figure sounds about right.

The 6 locations seems a bit much, but if say, a family back in 2017 sold everything, and maybe got $500k to $1m worth of everything, and bought BTC at $900 each, the could be looking at 555 BTC to 1000 BTC. They are looking at at least $27m USD worth, but if they never needed more than $1m before they will definitely keep all the rest in cold storage and just access them once a year or so for living expenses and potentially be able to live of that for the next several generations.

As for lost BTC, its a little bit difficult as some really old coins have been moving, but I would guess or estimate that you can just look at any coins or addresses that have not moved in maybe 10 years, and those could be considered lost. The longer coins do not move, the more likely they are lost.

Imo a normal house not in a big city …. A village house = 300-500k on avg of course more expensive ones for sure …. But on AVG

Then maybe how much is been paid of 10-20-50-70 or more %…. So no one can guess it easily could be 50-200 btc as well…. Could be more too…. No one knows….
1949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 12:05:57 PM
“Bitcoin is too complicated”


https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1425781574616895493?s=21
1950  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 12, 2021, 08:55:44 AM


Made me laugh
1951  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 11, 2021, 07:50:24 PM
1952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 11, 2021, 02:59:18 PM
https://twitter.com/naiiveclub/status/1425380469244268549?s=21
1953  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 11, 2021, 02:55:15 PM
In this thread I suggested that bitcoin is a powerful Schelling point, communicating quality & reliability, versus alts who host a lot more scammy projects, by comparing it to top level domain names:

1/ First try at drawing parallels between top level domainnames (TLDs) & cryptocurrencies. '17 Domaintools Report:  https://www.domaintools.com/content/The-DomainTools-Report-2017.pdf

2/ Market learns quickly, so scammers rotate into new TLDs quickly. Here are the TLDs ranked by # of blacklisted domainnames:



3/ Same in cryptocurrency space, where scams evolved from BTC ponzis, to "national coins", to "better mining" coins, to MLM coins, to ...

4/ Namespace is quite similar: 1,528 TLDs vs 1,119 cryptocurrencies in existence. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c… coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/



5/ The trust in .com names is justified: on a relative basis, 99.5% of .coms are likely bona fide — better than .org, .net, .info.



6/ IMO Bitcoin has relatively less scams associated with it than the rest of the top 10 cryptos. Lower gullibility, higher cost of business.

7/ Scams have a tendency to concentrate in certain namespaces. While fraud in quality TLDs is >1%, some others have 10%, 20%, +50%+ scams.



8/ Suspect same pattern in crypto—some brands r scam friendlier: premine (EZ revenue), PoS (perpetual income), ERC20 (fast deployment), ...

9/ DNS privacy providers: with the exception of 1 (the largest!), most providers are associated with only about 1% of scammy domains.



10/ Struggling to infer parallel phenomena in crypto. Perhaps big fraud facilitator is BTC-E, with other exchanges having lower fraud rate?

11/ Countries with highest concentrations of illicit domains. Perhaps extra due dil is warranted when evaluating ICOs with similar origins.



12/ The end. Curious about your thoughts, and again thanks to @DomainKing for bringing this industry to my attention!


Credit: Tuur Demeester


1954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 11, 2021, 12:44:36 PM
1955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2021, 10:04:57 PM

https://twitter.com/hammertonsambo/status/1425121915606388741?s=21
1956  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2021, 09:56:50 PM


Exactly how it goes
1957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2021, 09:17:20 PM
On the earlier discussion about money not making you happy.

I recall a study done where it's not so much that money makes you happy but not having money makes you less happy.



I think the key is to reach the point where you're not worried about money anymore so you can focus on better things in life. But the less money you have, you certainly do need to worry about money. I've been at the lowest end of the scale to well beyond the highest and I would agree.

I would caveat this with the fact that though I did not have money (I figured out the many ways to cook potatoes as it was all I had to eat for weeks, and later finding Bar-S hot dogs for $1 and a loaf of bread for $1 could get me through a week of meals) I knew that if things got too bad I could fall back on family. So my level of desperation never hit huge lows.

My current goal in life is not about having super cool awesome stuff, lambos, etc. It's about ensuring that the rest of my life I am not in the position I was early in my life. My problem with government has always been that they are the biggest factor in stopping me from ensuring my future through the use of violence.

Thx elwar…. I’m very interested in these kind of studies…

Good when I have some discussions with some peeps

I’m of the opinion Money doesn’t make happy… but it make thing way easier and that’s why it does make people happy

Like not have the need of worrying to pay monthly bills, able of going on holidays etc

Then comes the point of more money could be better, holidays can go easier more exciting, a bigger car, better house little more luxury things etc

Do I need most of gadgets not really but when there is more money then mostly more things are being bought.

I can say there isn’t really a lot making me happy these days from gadgets, I do like a nice house to call home and a nice car to drive with…. So money doesn’t necessarily makes one happy but the comfort it can give and taking away some stress points that’s something anyone becomes happy from…

Being able of taking my Gf or brother or someone I like on a trip or at a high class restaurant and give them the experience they wouldn’t have … that makes me happy as well

So I’m in favor of having more money as less money is a thing that could give join, an important thing maybe is to use it on important stuff as well and not only gadgets …
1958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2021, 05:46:00 PM
$47000 in one hour

Hmmm not working out as planned

Let’s say 50k by weekend and 50-55k end off weekend  Cool

 Starting from July 19th, 2021  until the end of this coming weekend as predicted by El duderino_

 

Cool, sweat work xhomerx

Still on my MAX though  Undecided
1959  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2021, 03:38:25 PM
$47000 in one hour

Hmmm not working out as planned

Let’s say 50k by weekend and 50-55k end off weekend  Cool
1960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2021, 03:14:55 PM

It's not a "DeFi hack", it's a buggy smart contract that was built on a buggy platform with a buggy programming language.

What they're doing is good lawyering: finding loopholes in a contract and using it to their clients' advantage.
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1425109560864301056?s=21
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