Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

How's your short going PMcoiner?

 

What short? Im hodling.

Well good thing that you had your "insightful" DOWNity theory hedged.

 

It was a hypothesis. A theory has a lot of work put in. I just pulled a chart out of my ass and asked if the past data similiarity looked spooky.  

Well that question was already answered.  In essence, the data that you had shown did not look spooky nor similar (based on other underlying concepts in bitcoinlandia.. including the various currently credible BTC prediction models that should have allowed you to reasonably conclude that we not be in 2018 at this here time), but you argued about it anyhow...hahahaha

I'm not sure of the specific beairsh theory, but I don't see it as being laughable to be objective and consider "shit, maybe we are all wrong". I was 95% sure the bull-run would continue, which very much appears to be the case now fortunately. I'd still put a 1-2% chance of being wrong however, as nothing to is a guarantee in life. It'd be naive to consider the statistical or data science models, whether that be log growth or stock to flow, to be right 100% of the time. That's how you can get completely rekt long-term.

Call me not a "true believer" or otherwise, but I just stick with the probabilities rather than the prophecies, as they appear more reliable to me. Fortunately as I trade time rather than price these days, the probability of the 12th year of Bitcoin being different from the other 11 had a simplistic 8.3% chance to me (1/12). Add in something else like stock to flow and the macro bullish uptrend of the Weekly/Monthly chart, I could easily drop this % in half to <5%. But I still had my objective reservations as a natural skeptic. I also almost took a short as a hedge given the descending triangle pattern, while hodling the rest of my stash, but in the end after further analysis I realised the times when these patterns don't break bearish is often during the 1-year up trends. So the idea of it having a 80-90% chance of breaking down with another 50% drop became completely invalidated for me. It did remind me of 2019 however, even if the pattern not so clean (also looked like a broadening wedge), so I considered it more of a bear trap - which it turned out to be.

Overall I was more convinced that with the 50+% correction, price therefore had more of a chance to go higher than initial expectations of $100-150K, as it looked more similar to 2012 than 2018 for sure, or a completely different uber bullish longer term trend we have never seen before (something WIlly Woo recently touched upon, the "super cycle" possibility). That and looking at analysis from over a year ago, this really helped rationalize the situation for me. For sure price got over-extended too far too fast, but ultimately we remained on track regardless.

Naturally any hedge wouldn't have been for $ gains, it would of simply been an attempt to increase BTC holdings, with ultimately still the projection of Bitcoin price making new ATH high this year anyway. So I never actually considered the bear market had come, this seemed high unlikely to me, but I didn't rule this out or the idea of another fake-out. No doubt the sort of fake-out that institutions so desperately craved and could have manipulated in order to position themselves properly, knowing many of them f**cked up. Instead of seems they gave up and just decided to short gold instead  

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[1714763970]

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[El duderino_]

Flash dump

Or ant?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

After the double chartbuddy, we have a double BitcoinGirl.Club

What's with this new McDonald's hat?

$50k is not far!

Some guys just seem to love maintaining a J.O.B.

I think that they just like picking up normie girls there during the times that it is more difficult to play the baller angle.   

The dude still working for Mac 😂
Come on Mic! Don't spend much on chicks 😜

Regarding $50k, I am kind of thinking that there might be a bit of a spurt up to $53k, if it comes at some point, but I am also thinking that $50k does not matter so much because we have already gravitated at $46k long enough to know that the bottom is quite likely to be "in" so the poll has become irrelevant in regards to feasibly reaching the downside... so whether $50k takes a few hours or a month to play out, it seems that we are at least going to get that far, and then perhaps there might be a bit of resistance between $53k and $58k and getting above $58k will likely cause difficulties in keeping the bad boy down.. and gosh it may well already be too late to keep the bad boy down since we crossed over $46k.. but I hate to be too presumptuous, too.

+1

One of the reason I don't feel motivated that I never had smerit to send out 😡

[d_eddie]

Hodlers know it
one bitcoin is one bitcoin
scammers disagree








#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

So slipping back a bit to 46-47k slot.

I have us at 9 days over 40k.
So the dual threads one by Proudhon one by me in homage to him are about to expire.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5352160.0 ---------- Mine

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5338567.0 ----------- Proudhon


I think 7 am Sunday the 15 ends these two threads.


Maybe some else tries a 45k thread if these two threads die.

[AverageGlabella]

Of course, there are examples of media twisting facts, opinion and logic, but generally they are at least supposed to, in theory, attempt to present matters in a neutral manner and disclose any of their personal biases.

They are suppose to bring news coverage that is not bias but they never do. I think there are more examples of news using stories to click bait and push a agenda than there is them being transparent and showing us the facts in a non bias way. We are in the world of click bait and they use that because they get more clicks and they benefit from that because it translates to more money for them.

[Richy_T]

They are suppose to bring news coverage that is not bias but they never do. I think there are more examples of news using stories to click bait and push a agenda than there is them being transparent and showing us the facts in a non bias way. We are in the world of click bait and they use that because they get more clicks and they benefit from that because it translates to more money for them.

MSM is dying too. I think that plays a lot into things.

[AverageGlabella]

So slipping back a bit to 46-47k slot.

I have us at 9 days over 40k.
So the dual threads one by Proudhon one by me in homage to him are about to expire.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5352160.0 ---------- Mine

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5338567.0 ----------- Proudhon


I think 7 am Sunday the 15 ends these two threads.


Maybe some else tries a 45k thread if these two threads die.

Proudhon will say that Bitcoin cannot reach 51k when it reaches 50k we know the vicious cycle that Proudhon has he thinks Bitcoin will never progress after hitting milestone prices. I think even if Bitcoin hit 1 million per BTC then proudhon would still argue that Bitcoin is not successful and it won't reach 1 million on 1 dollar.

[aysg76]

The thinking is going to change slowly and soon scammers would not try to defame it anymore..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[UnDerDoG81]

They are suppose to bring news coverage that is not bias but they never do. I think there are more examples of news using stories to click bait and push a agenda than there is them being transparent and showing us the facts in a non bias way. We are in the world of click bait and they use that because they get more clicks and they benefit from that because it translates to more money for them.

MSM is dying too. I think that plays a lot into things.

In Germany ALL! the big news media sites started doing affiliate marketing, having thousands of pages in the search engines with "top 10 best toaster" "top 10 best pc mouse" etc. As you say, they are history soon. Due to their fake news, working for variant agendas who pay them (eg. Bill Gates is heavily in in Germany), many (still too less) people woke up and understand more and more you can not trust news media anymore. So, not so many visit their sites = less money from ads, more agendas enter the market and pay em because it gets cheaper to buy your self fake reputation or push your agenda through news.

In short, the system is dying. And Covid is their last attempt to take control back. So far they doing well. Let's see how far they can push their social credit system to reward or punish the people. E.g. if you do not read their news media but alternative news, your social rating drops and you are not allowed to travel or enter a supermarket etc. because you are a risk for society. Covid and the digital passports are their way to this system. First it looks like it's only for vaccines. But after couple false flag attacks (e.g. some "crazy" guy read fake news, got nuts and shot xx people etc.), they add more and more to the passport. Of course they do it slowly step by step to wake up as few as possible. This will take many years to install. Generation by generation.

[fr4nkthetank]

All started in september 2001.  The world really did change within a month.  Its a good thing we have Bitcoin, else people would really be screwed.

[elrippos friend]

As far as we know you are quoting a dead man.  He held a lot of bitcoin while he was alive, and probably lost more than many in this thread could imagine.

What an insight you shared there. I just checked the user's profile. They were last active in March. That means their demise happened recently. What a loss.

The rumor is it was a car wreck.  Truly sad.  He made lots of enemies here because he was also a thief/scammer.  He started a crypto "game" that I think used monero, but then had it's own google sheets based "currency", and he basically exit scammed, supposedly went to jail (not sure if related) and most likely lost most of it...

I had several long private conversations with him.  he was a tortured soul.  At least some of the time.

I never knew, however, that he was a violin appraiser.  Lol.

This guy more or less brought me into crypto and i enjoyed his predictions and mathematical forecasts very much! I think his game was not intended as an exit scam, i think -as i was watching the development of his castle game- he was fucked by hackers as other exchanges had been fucked also and he was fucked by poloniex also.
I am not sure if he had a car accident or if he was accidented, but yes he had some troubles with his wife and his children. RIP, i will still enjoy reading his posts and predictions saved here  

A quick note to agree with you that Risto was not purely bad.  But he did demolish his reputation and his own riches as well as the wealth of others.  Along with, as you say, getting others to see the future with Bitcoin (and also Monero).  I liked him and had several great conversations with him.  It would be terrible if he was "accidented".

When the kingdom game was going I would not touch it with a 10 meter pole.  He loved the idea of being a king, surrounded by sycophants.  He was that as well...  I saw the end from a mile away... maybe I was just cynical, but also right.

I fully agree with you, despite the fact, that i think computer games are a waste of time that would keep me from reading a good, interesting book.
I hope he has found peace with himself, his wife and children...

[Hhampuz]

In Germany ALL! the big news media sites started doing affiliate marketing, having thousands of pages in the search engines with "top 10 best toaster" "top 10 best pc mouse" etc. As you say, they are history soon. Due to their fake news, working for variant agendas who pay them (eg. Bill Gates is heavily in in Germany), many (still too less) people woke up and understand more and more you can not trust news media anymore. So, not so many visit their sites = less money from ads, more agendas enter the market and pay em because it gets cheaper to buy your self fake reputation or push your agenda through news.

In short, the system is dying. And Covid is their last attempt to take control back. So far they doing well. Let's see how far they can push their social credit system to reward or punish the people. E.g. if you do not read their news media but alternative news, your social rating drops and you are not allowed to travel or enter a supermarket etc. because you are a risk for society. Covid and the digital passports are their way to this system. First it looks like it's only for vaccines. But after couple false flag attacks (e.g. some "crazy" guy read fake news, got nuts and shot xx people etc.), they add more and more to the passport. Of course they do it slowly step by step to wake up as few as possible. This will take many years to install. Generation by generation.

Jesus christ man if this what you are saying is something you truly believe in, or even worse something that is really happening, we'd all be better off just eating a bullet. Moving to the woods and survive without the need of any society is a great idea but I'd probably rather just not be around if that's the only option.

We're all here, we're all in BTC, the world isn't just doom and gloom and there's so much you can do to enjoy life, take a page from Bob for example and build the ranch of your dreams of be like duderino_ and travel the world. This sitting here and saving up every single penny in BTC hodling until you die while also spinning this narrative in your mind around the clock about how everyone is sheep and how the world will soon end.. what's the point!?

[NIZZAONE]

pls gimme a vote in german sektion 4 sentiment check  

when €100k?!?

[NIZZAONE]

In Germany ALL! the big news media sites started doing affiliate marketing, having thousands of pages in the search engines with "top 10 best toaster" "top 10 best pc mouse" etc. As you say, they are history soon. Due to their fake news, working for variant agendas who pay them (eg. Bill Gates is heavily in in Germany), many (still too less) people woke up and understand more and more you can not trust news media anymore. So, not so many visit their sites = less money from ads, more agendas enter the market and pay em because it gets cheaper to buy your self fake reputation or push your agenda through news.

In short, the system is dying. And Covid is their last attempt to take control back. So far they doing well. Let's see how far they can push their social credit system to reward or punish the people. E.g. if you do not read their news media but alternative news, your social rating drops and you are not allowed to travel or enter a supermarket etc. because you are a risk for society. Covid and the digital passports are their way to this system. First it looks like it's only for vaccines. But after couple false flag attacks (e.g. some "crazy" guy read fake news, got nuts and shot xx people etc.), they add more and more to the passport. Of course they do it slowly step by step to wake up as few as possible. This will take many years to install. Generation by generation.

interresting dystopy... maybe just paranoid but maybe not?! but who is they?

[AlcoHoDL]

when €100k?!?

2021: probably.
2022: definitely, or I'll eat my... just definitely.