Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

[marcus_of_augustus]

Those pesky NOCOINERS always returning to try & piss on our parade. Sad for Raja but let this be a warning to all of you. Never sell all of your bitcoin, the regret will consume you as we power to ATH after ATH.

Yeah, I'm truly regretting selling my BTC at way over current prices, I agree.

RIP fallen soldier

I think I should let y'all know my current position in BTC: 0.

I got completely out at ~$50k and will load back whenever the 200 Week Moving Average trend line is touched (currently at ~$12.5k but going up rapidly). This could take a year or more; I'm fine with it.

Yeah, BTC is way over $50k right now, I agree.

Just a matter of time ol’ friend.

Time will tell who was right and who was wrong.

Anyways, at least we made this thread a bit active for a little while. Not sure when/how it became so inactive.

... oh gawd, just what we need another sold out bitcoin bull, those are the worst, roach, mindrust, etc ... it becomes like a psychological disorder, tying themselves into mental pretzels as the bitcoin freedom train runs away from them

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

[UnknownHolder]

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

73% UP
28% DOWN

[Raja_MBZ]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

[Biodom]

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

73% UP
28% DOWN

That (above) is just an opinion, which are 'a dime a dozen' worth.
This is not a calculation of any sort, but simply a guess.
Still, better than before.

[JayJuanGee]

@Raja espouses the same views as the hex scammer, not going to mention the name (similarity of opinion is probably just a coincidence).
That view is that the cycle peak was 64K (very little and premature peak, I know), then the bottom would be at 200Wk MA.
Woonomic is of the opinion that the peak will be in 2022 and that btc is currently in the process of shaking off 4-year cycles.
Whether this would happen or not, I don't know. Maybe 50:50.

It's not that BIG of a dilemma Biodom..

Yeah, of course, I can see that you are still putting a decent amount of weight (too much of course) into the dumbass theory that we are in a bear market (dead cat bounce happening currently, right?) - but our recent price UPpity from $29k to $48k (yes took 3 weeks to play out) had to cause you a wee bit of pause, no?  

Perhaps not.. but what are we going to do for those miembros who are ongoingly wanting to play the bear thesis (and suck a little bear cock) whenever they have any sliver of an opportunity for such?

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

73% UP
28% DOWN

Well that sucks that my numbers did not add up to 100% with engineering precision (I must be totally wrong, then.  perhaps?) ..

It looks like my supplemental was a wee bit closer to 100.5%.. because it was 72.5% for UP and 28% down..

Anyhow, I think that I am just going to let those numbers stand because the point has largely been attempted to have been made.. and sure we could attempt to figure out where to shave 1% off somewhere or perhaps 0.5% off in the supplemental.. or just let the extra 0.5% to 1% float.. They are meant to be ballpark attempts at specifics anyhow that were supposed to add up to 100%.. and sure even my approximate (out of my ass) calculations might change within days of the posting, too.. not to mention (well, I did mention it) tweaks to the numbers that might end up having to have to happen weeks or months later.

[UnknownHolder]

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

73% UP
28% DOWN

That (above) is just an opinion, which are 'a dime a dozen' worth.
This is not a calculation of any sort, but simply a guess.
Still, better than before.

Just fixing JJG

My guess is
[30.00] for range $101k to $240k
[80.00] for range $65k to $100k
--------------

[Copetech]

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

72.5% UP [edited to correct the above bold mistakes]
28% DOWN

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

[UnknownHolder]

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

I'm sorry, I'm a little drunk :-)

edit: Date Registered:    December 02, 2017, 02:32:02 PM
edit2: I'm here from 2012 but my account was stolen

[Biodom]

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

72.5% UP [edited to correct the above bold mistakes]
28% DOWN

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

hey, don't be a panzy (panzy fuck) [or panzy fuck panzy], bro, and argue about %%.
Believe me, JJG can take it..and much more.
he/it is not destructible, just like Bender.

[El duderino_]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

[Copetech]

[Getting repetitive]

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

hey don't be a panzy (panzy fuck), bro, and argue about %%.
Believe me, JJG can take it..and much more.
he/it is not destructible, just like Bender.

Hey! I'll be whatever kinda fuck I wanna be!


[Even the pansy type that drinks too much after work and accuses some other drunk asshole of hiding behind a ghost account w/o checking their account creation date]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raja_MBZ]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

[Biodom]

reading about brain organoids with eyes...sheeeeit (as Bob would say).
Even Descartes way back when was pondering about us possibly just being brains (or even circuits?) floating in some kind of media (nobody would know the difference if all senses are intentionally deceived):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evil_demon

[Biodom]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

That's all dandy IF there are no cap gains.
In US this strategy cannot work well as long as you are in the higher bracket.

[El duderino_]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Everyone has the right for using there own strategy…. Ours are just not similar though thx for sharing us your vision….

I’ll just stick in the world of I have s little fiat on the side I can work perfect with my fiat incomes and I try to maximize and expand my BTC hodl stash when I can, keep my most of worth in it bc trusting it there way more as having it in fiat and banks etc….

[El duderino_]

Night HODLsleep is calling me

[Syke]

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Quoted to make a prediction. You'll be buying back higher than you sold.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation