Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[UnknownHolder]

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

I'm sorry, I'm a little drunk :-)

edit: Date Registered:    December 02, 2017, 02:32:02 PM
edit2: I'm here from 2012 but my account was stolen

[Biodom]

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

72.5% UP [edited to correct the above bold mistakes]
28% DOWN

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

hey, don't be a panzy (panzy fuck) [or panzy fuck panzy], bro, and argue about %%.
Believe me, JJG can take it..and much more.
he/it is not destructible, just like Bender.

[El duderino_]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

[Copetech]

[Getting repetitive]

If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections.

hey don't be a panzy (panzy fuck), bro, and argue about %%.
Believe me, JJG can take it..and much more.
he/it is not destructible, just like Bender.

Hey! I'll be whatever kinda fuck I wanna be!


[Even the pansy type that drinks too much after work and accuses some other drunk asshole of hiding behind a ghost account w/o checking their account creation date]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raja_MBZ]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

[Biodom]

reading about brain organoids with eyes...sheeeeit (as Bob would say).
Even Descartes way back when was pondering about us possibly just being brains (or even circuits?) floating in some kind of media (nobody would know the difference if all senses are intentionally deceived):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evil_demon

[Biodom]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

That's all dandy IF there are no cap gains.
In US this strategy cannot work well as long as you are in the higher bracket.

[El duderino_]

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Everyone has the right for using there own strategy…. Ours are just not similar though thx for sharing us your vision….

I’ll just stick in the world of I have s little fiat on the side I can work perfect with my fiat incomes and I try to maximize and expand my BTC hodl stash when I can, keep my most of worth in it bc trusting it there way more as having it in fiat and banks etc….

[El duderino_]

Night HODLsleep is calling me

[Syke]

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Quoted to make a prediction. You'll be buying back higher than you sold.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[STT]

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

This might be a real smart strategy but its also just a trade, we all know the Dollar decline is set almost by design now and they cant reverse it.  They cant reverse QE properly, debt cant/wont be repaid, the closing of the fiscal deficit seems unlikely so we're in a really leaky boat but I agree the Dollar can rise in theory just from volatility.    FED is not in control, that part is the illusion and if we ever see the obvious stated that FED is not the master of this situation then genuine panic occurs.   We have the perception FED can control it so the music plays on, I think this only works while people can believe 0% interest rates and other apparitions that will keep appearing are just fine.  The people are the economy, its not a puppet show and it has to work to the benefit of the people or things go badly; FED has one tool which is to loosen monetary policy.
  Other arguments for Dollar strength would be government repaying debt, or exports rising also raising dollar demand and the final thing is dollar demand from buyers of the debt but this story is way overdone and there is an excess of debt and QE.    I've been watching Dollar index and its failed to break upwards, its part of why we rose and markets generally from end of July so its weaker year on year from that and it has tested and attempted higher already so far as I can see.   Saying that DXY, UUP or whatever ticker is just about trying for higher on Dollar now then July so lets see if it can do what it failed in April which is breaking past the levels of a year ago July August I want to see confirm its a stronger dollar now then back then; if this occurs maybe bearish scenarios have better reasoning.
  I think this move itself is speculative on FED tightening, ultimately I dont believe they can or what occurs is ongoing dollar dilution and lower value ie. inflation exceeds rates.   DXY also is a measure of FIAT ratios not value vs real costs.

Near term BTC might going down a bit I expect a pullback but this plan for a hard sell is far too bearish.   I agree on the hype take, that always happens there is froth in the price.    Theres a whole range of possibilities but anything near 30k was a buy I reckon just for this year, higher then that for longer term is quite probable.

200-week moving average is touched

We did that in 2020 so thats the touch thats not going to occur every year, thats the real in extremis view.   Everyone wants to buy there, thats why it doesnt occur often; you know this by correlating it to the news event that came with it.   I sure hope we arent being pushed in that way again so often

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Y’all forget about your 200-week MA or daily or monthly MAs

Next time use COVID graph for your trades

[xhomerx10]

Y’all forget about your 200-week MA or daily or monthly MAs

Next time use COVID graph for your trades

 In that case, God forgive me, I'm rooting for a massive fourth wave!

[shahzadafzal]

Y’all forget about your 200-week MA or daily or monthly MAs

Next time use COVID graph for your trades

 In that case, God forgive me, I'm rooting for a massive fourth wave!

It’s our duty now!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

https://medium.com/@coinbaseblog?p=273cd9d6bd8c


Coinbase has announced that they are partnering with a Major Japanese bank and opening the exchange to the Japanese market.

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1428032703740346376

Willy talkin' like the cAP...