This starts to remind me of the altcoin market where devs need to do some handholding for the market, lol...
yes, its interesting because in some way they do. it wasnt that hard to see one year ago that the market (and for big parts the community) will look forward to a blocksize-raise and big tensions could come into the bitcoin-economy. it was tremendously silly to underestimate the force of the community, even if you think that 2MB HF is a bad thing you should be able to understand that a breakup of the community may be a much bigger risk. a rational decision would favor 2MB HF anytime instead of a contentious HF.
Is there any reason to believe Segwit won't happen in a few months
nope, question is a.) will they get their shit together? b.) how big will the added space really be?
and hard fork next year for even more?
yes, there is reason to believe so. core already pronounced that they need consensus to add a HF, but with friedenbach we already have one core dev opposing the HF in public, set aside Gmax who didnt declare anything to the HK-consensus.
that leaves some serious doubts if the HK has any credibility and as long as that uncertainty persists we see trouble...