Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

Hello?   That's not what I said.

O.k... I may be a little bit off on my facts, but if you look at coinmarket cap, and you compare bitcoin's market cap on December 22, 2014 of $4.4 Billion to Ripple's market cap of $754 million, I calculate that to be about 17%, yet I did not research all of the market caps of all of the other alts on that same date, but from that quickie research, it appears that your assertion that 82.5% market share for bitcoin as the lowest ever, is not accurate.   By the way, it appears that on December 22, 2014 litecoin had a market cap of about $100 million and Doge had about $18 million...

Now, I am tired of research, yet I think I made my point.   

[bargainbin]

>Replace megamine with any other business.

Any other business suddenly losing half of its revenue?
Like the auto industry suddenly being able to sell only half as many cars? (hoping against hope that the cars it does sell will somehow double in price)?
Not finding anything readily analogous & rekindling hope at the same time

The block reward subsidy was not the intended revenue stream for mining in the long term. A rare metal with the easiest to find surface quantities already found may be loosely analogous. But the analogy breaks down when...

The real product the miners end up producing and relying on for revenue is blockspace. Inflation subsidy is just supposed to pay the bills while we scale up the number of fees paid per transactions.  

I'm with you on block reward being a temporary measure, to be phased out as the fees market develops. We're disagreeing only about *how* the miners should be weened off the block reward -- via a halvening, or gradually.
As we stand, fees are a tiny percentage of miners' revenue -- they'd have to be brought up to something like $3 per tx to make up for the loss of subsidies (or number of users/tx must go up, what, a hundredfold?). My math might be shit, going by ~3tps * 60sec * ~10mins = 25btc reward now; tx = 25/1800 * 425 = $5.90; Cutting reward in half = +$3 per tx, to keep things even (ignoring hashrate drop, ignoring price fluctuation, ignoring everything). I could be totally wrong.

If fees were $1.50 now, I could see people paying $3, but from $.03 to $3 is a bit of a stretch.
Doubling blocksize limit only gets us to $1.50/tx, still no help, so we're looking at something happening with the miners. I think

Anyhow, only questioning the rationality of abrupt halving, not viability of fee-subsidized mining.

[BayAreaCoins]

Opened a few shorts and off to bed.

Might be a shit show if there is a dip going into Monday.

Should have a nice buy back in the low $430s. (OKCoin futures)

Nom Nom Nom

[jbreher]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

Hello?   That's not what I said.

O.k... I may be a little bit off on my facts, but if you look at coinmarket cap, and you compare bitcoin's market cap on December 22, 2014 of $4.4 Billion to Ripple's market cap of $754 million, I calculate that to be about 17%, yet I did not research all of the market caps of all of the other alts on that same date, but from that quickie research, it appears that your assertion that 82.5% market share for bitcoin as the lowest ever, is not accurate.   By the way, it appears that on December 22, 2014 litecoin had a market cap of about $100 million and Doge had about $18 million...

Now, I am tired of research, yet I think I made my point.   

Two things:

1) I didn't say lowest ever. I said lowest in recent memory.

2) Right - you said within 25% or so, and you found a data point to confirm it. I was not arguing against your point, just pointing out that it was way wider thatn your 25% - indeed, at one time Ripple was bigger than Bitcoin. The superfluous tag sentences were merely to drive home how surprised I feel most might be to leran this.

Bonus 3) Well, duh. If Ripple alone used to be bigger than Bitcoin, it is obvious that Bitcoin's market share has indeed been lower than 82.5%. But 82.5% is a recent low.

This is a metric I check once a week or so. When I see any new trend, I go looking for a reason. I think the reason this time is a foolish FOMO into ETH. I think many are likely to end up hurt when this pops. But some other alts are also rising. Is this a trend with legs? I hope not. If Bitcoin dies, the entire crypto field will be set back by a decade or more. But I'm keeping my eye on it.

[jbreher]

My math might be shit, ...

I'm not checking your math. What you're missing is appreciation in price.

[xxxxxzzzzz]

what's going on with price slippage... or so it seems 

been getting repeatedly spiked down and worked lower last 3 days now despite some seemingly heavy resistance ... basically it didn't breach $450 or 3000cny on the upswing from the looks of it and so down it goes ... now about $20 off from the $445 it hit 3 days ago ... pretty brutal and demoralizing but i assume that's the idea it always is ... we'll see if it goes up from 425 , 420 , or somewhere between there and 400 ...

[bargainbin]

My math might be shit, ...

I'm not checking your math. What you're missing is appreciation in price.

Right, "(ignoring hashrate drop, ignoring price fluctuation, ignoring everything)." I'm not at all sure that the price will go up -- if that was a certainty, one could categorically state that the *entire world is stupid* because not mortgaging home & investing everything, along with Pumpkin's college fund, in BTC. Because can't lose, so why not?

[ImI]

smells like a BIG drop is incoming

[arklan]

smells like a BIG drop is incoming

incoming nothing.it's on. 6 bucks dropped in two hours and still going? prepare the lube, someone's getting screwed.

[lemmyK]

YES...   not look good ...421.710..........

[lemmyK]

smells like a BIG drop is incoming

incoming nothing.it's on. 6 bucks dropped in two hours and still going? prepare the lube, someone's getting screwed.

100 btc = 600 bax  .."only"

[ImI]

YES...   not look good ...421.710..........

it will drop until we have a solution to this blocksize-mess

[bargainbin]

^I'm surprised it's not in the 300s... Not joking.

[ImI]

^I'm surprised it's not in the 300s... Not joking.

jepp, honestly same here. with all that bullshit we should be fighting with the 300$ mark instead of 400$ imo

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

Hello?   That's not what I said.

O.k... I may be a little bit off on my facts, but if you look at coinmarket cap, and you compare bitcoin's market cap on December 22, 2014 of $4.4 Billion to Ripple's market cap of $754 million, I calculate that to be about 17%, yet I did not research all of the market caps of all of the other alts on that same date, but from that quickie research, it appears that your assertion that 82.5% market share for bitcoin as the lowest ever, is not accurate.   By the way, it appears that on December 22, 2014 litecoin had a market cap of about $100 million and Doge had about $18 million...

Now, I am tired of research, yet I think I made my point.    

Two things:

1) I didn't say lowest ever. I said lowest in recent memory.

2) Right - you said within 25% or so, and you found a data point to confirm it. I was not arguing against your point, just pointing out that it was way wider thatn your 25% - indeed, at one time Ripple was bigger than Bitcoin. The superfluous tag sentences were merely to drive home how surprised I feel most might be to leran this.

Bonus 3) Well, duh. If Ripple alone used to be bigger than Bitcoin, it is obvious that Bitcoin's market share has indeed been lower than 82.5%. But 82.5% is a recent low.

This is a metric I check once a week or so. When I see any new trend, I go looking for a reason. I think the reason this time is a foolish FOMO into ETH. I think many are likely to end up hurt when this pops. But some other alts are also rising. Is this a trend with legs? I hope not. If Bitcoin dies, the entire crypto field will be set back by a decade or more. But I'm keeping my eye on it.

Well, I don't really see any point to argue regarding this because I think that each of us made our points fair and square.... and maybe just clarified a few matters.


Nonetheless, regarding your point about Ripple being bigger than bitcoin, when was this?  (any significant period of time between 2013 and present?)... What I am trying to suggest, in my questioning the relevance of such a point (ripple bigger than bitcoin), is that really, bitcoin was only introduced, somewhat, to the mainstream in 2013.. .with any significant market cap of higher than $1billion.


Regarding your points about bitcoin losing market share.  I really doubt that bitcoin has witnessed any close and/or meaningful threat recently, and there is not even one in the wings at the moment (despite various ongoing fear mongering)

[Cconvert2G36]

-snip-
Having it [block reward] be smoothed or stepped is another question, I'm not as sure about that one, just that it becomes exponentially less important over time.
-snip-

-snip-
We're disagreeing only about *how* the miners should be weened off the block reward -- via a halvening, or gradually.
-snip-

We're not really disagreeing. If we were, it would only be because changing such an important parameter now (not like 1MB DoS limit from 2010) could potentially damage confidence in the supposed immutability of the coin distribution schedule. The psychological damage to the market could be worse than the potential "ease of planning" benefit brought by the smoothing...

To your other points, both fees per and raw number of tx rising are likely necessary to replace the subsidy, and we are central planning one of those out of the equation, for now.

Where is dev?  

[JayJuanGee]

what's going on with price slippage... or so it seems 

been getting repeatedly spiked down and worked lower last 3 days now despite some seemingly heavy resistance ... basically it didn't breach $450 or 3000cny on the upswing from the looks of it and so down it goes ... now about $20 off from the $445 it hit 3 days ago ... pretty brutal and demoralizing but i assume that's the idea it always is ... we'll see if it goes up from 425 , 420 , or somewhere between there and 400 ...

You should not let yourself get demoralized by such volatility and price movements.  Just attempt to prepare for various swings of 5%, 10% and up to 20% in short periods of time.  Such price changes are not the end of bitcoin, but part of the process of upward movements includes some flat periods and even downward tests of the support.

[Cconvert2G36]

It's gonna take some pain to wake up these miners to the fact that they may be relying on their main competitor to plan their own future.

[bargainbin]

-snip-
We're not really disagreeing. If we were, it would only be because changing such an important parameter now (not like 1MB DoS limit) could potentially damage confidence in the supposed immutability of the coin distribution schedule. The psychological damage to the market could be worse than the potential "ease of planning" benefit brought by the smoothing...

To your other points, both fees per and raw number of tx rising are likely necessary to replace the subsidy, and we are central planning one of those out of the equation, for now.

Where is dev?  

You're probably right, to me it just makes more sense to correct problems while in beta & not try to ignore them. But then I'm not the average goldbug/bitcoiner, so don't count.
Could be something we're both overlooking though, might be good reasons for it being abrupt instead of gradual. I'm guessing there are.

It's gonna take some pain to wake up these miners to the fact that they may be relying on their main competitor to plan their own future.

You know those Satoshi's Chosen Round Tables? The most important thing in any con is making the mark believe he's a coconspirator, in on the scam, not a mark at all (it's them other guys that are marks)