Phone companies may have gotten smarter about this; however, porting phone numbers can be a quite pernicious means of getting into your various e-mail and/or bitcoin related accounts.  So , you definitely gotta be careful about that.  I think that in the USA they just need your phone number and your telephone account number to be able to force port the number to whereever the fuck they want... and then you might be fucked.

My favorite part.

Kissing and making up.

My use of "hope" might NOT have been the best of choices, yet I did not mean anything denigrating about it  - because certainly the past month has been a bit frustrating for HODLers and those of us who have been contemplating decent likelihoods of further upwards BTC price movements.  So, surely, the longer that BTC prices bleed downwards and then get stuck in lower price ranges causes many folks to become less and less bullish - and even perhaps to give up on some of their BTC accumulation strategy and to take profits while the price is going down... just likely establishing that some of these folks are engaging in such behavior because they are over-invested (even if just short-term) even in light of their own long term BTC bullishness.

Personally, If we really reflect upon what we are doing, I don't think that many of us are really throwing up mud - because in the end, even though a lot of folks like to talk in terms of absolutes, I really think that if push comes to shove, they are merely talking in terms of what they believe to be more probable than not, even while most folks tend to assign too high a percentage on the side of the outcome that they believe to be most probable.



Maybe I am a bit of a navel gazer because I certainly do get some pleasures out of analyzing my own approach - whether anyone responds to my analysis or not.  

I think that by constantly attempting to practice and then looking at your own approach, you become more and more in tune with how to make it better and perhaps less emotionally involved.  Yet, believe me, I also have second thoughts about my own approach, especially when the overall value of my holdings drops 50%.  I mean I am trading with so small of a percentage of my overall holdings that BTC prices falling causes nearly an equal drop in the overall value of my holdings, even though I am buying all the way down.

In reviewing my own application of my buy on the way down system, I see that when BTC prices hit $19,666, I had accumulated fiat that was valued about 10% of my total value.  When BTC prices dropped by 50%, I used about 50% of what I had accumulated in fiat to buy back BTC.  If BTC prices were to drop an additional 75% from $11,300 to $3k, then I already have BTC buy orders set up that project that I would end up using 75% of my currently existing fiat to buy back BTC down to that $3k level.

I am not even sure if I understand my own system exactly because from time to time I tweak it a little bit to confirm that "this would be good at x price" or "this would be good y price,"  so if BTC prices go shooting one way or another (which we have already witnessed very many times, even in recent times), then I have already predetermined my buy/sell amounts to be o.k for such BTC price shooting.  

Actually, several of us HODLers and BTC bulls were probably quite shocked beyond our belief to experience BTC prices to shoot up with such violence past $5k - $7k and into the 5 digits and then to go as far as $19,666.  Yes, a lot of us have considered shooting up past that $5-$7k price range to be possible, but it became quite a deer in the headlights moment when it happened, and there are some folks who have some tentative plan that they follow no matter what (and that was me), and some others who were stressed out because they were trying to create a plan in the midst of the happening, which is much more difficult to do.  

I think that no matter what some of us, including myself, are going to have second thoughts about "I should have sold more" or "I should have bought more" , yet the more that you consider your plan in advance and reconsider and tweak it, the better you are going to be to lessen some of those stresses (that do not go away completely).




Probably Bob is much more of a sweet teddy bear (not trying to imply) than he makes out to be.  


After all these years in bitcoin, I frequently have difficulties attributing meaning to some of these chart (TA) indictators, and sometimes difficult to determine which chart is best for which purpose.  I do tend to think that the 3 day or the 1 week are better to figure out if trade volume is moving in one or another direction - because sometimes we can lulls in the action for a few days that returns in GREAT force a few days later.

Whoaza!!!!!!

Prediction making has consequences these days.   Us HODLers, and perhaps especially Toxic, are hoping for a spike in the upwards direction in the coming day and a half.

Regarding my own predicting abilities, I frequently am pretty whimpy in that respect.  I consider that currently we have a BTC  price battle that is largely ranging in the $10k to $12.5k arena, so certainly Bob is betting on price movement into the upper end of the range - which seems to be reasonable, yet really nothing to write home about until we bounce either above the range into the $13ks or below the range, into the 4 digits.  Maybe I am close to 50/50 in my current thinking regarding which way the break out is going to go, and I suppose that if I was forced in either direction, I would give a slightly more favorable to up.. perhaps 51%

Come on, picnic bear. 


Don't be a party poop.

You see.

Even Bones is getting onboard with buying on the way down (rather than selling)... 

What's next?   

Seems like we are merely receiving some kind of temporary reprieve from spam attacks on the BTC network, whether it is because Jihan is moving some of his mining operation from China to Canada or for some other random reason, who knows.  I don't think that the mempool status is either bullish or bearish indicator because it remains a continuously manipulated variable.



hahahahaha

I did not say that.  Maybe it does bear some repeating of my earlier suggestion, whether I can consider you as begging me to or not? 

My main point earlier was to engage in your selling strategy in an incremental kind of way and let the market come to you rather than stressing out about it.  Seems that you are already in a very decent position to have already accomplished 30% of your goal.   Need I say more?   

You are correct that long time HODLers and already seasoned BTC traders are going to be in decent shape in a wide variety of scenarios, even with an additional 40% price drop, if it were to happen.



To each his own.  I personally don't place a lot of value in playing around with alts - but I do acknowledge that there have been a lot of folks who have been able to play alts in such a way that have allowed them to accumulate more BTC than if they were playing BTC by itself - yet at the same time, any time that we consider any strategy, we need to consider our strategy from the here and now, rather than gambling merely based on the fact that others have been able to filthily and exorbitantly profit in the past.



I don't think that it is productive psychologically to blame others for your losses.  Sure there are scams, but each of us still need to act prudently.  If we are considerably (and maybe too much) focused on getting rich quick, then we are not going to build our principle and we are going to be opening ourselves up for getting scammed.

I personally believe that it is better to plan slowly and methodically (and maybe you will get lucky once in a while to be in the right place at the right time) rather than gambling too much with our principle which ultimately is going to cause you to lose the principle.  Initially, I put in a pretty decent amount of capital into bitcoin, but then my trades generated only small profits, however, as the price went up and with the passage of time, I am able to structure the trades to make more and more and more money, while preserving a vast majority of my principle.  I have been scammed a few times, too, but I still have been able to retain a considerable amount of profits - so instead of having a 40x return, I probably only got around a 20x return (and of course my return kind of floats around a bit based on the ongoing volatility of bitcoin and the fact that I retain a decent amount of value invested into bitcoin).


Sure, i have to concede that the more money you have in, then the more money you can make, and make it safely. 

Also, I still believe that you have to focus on slow accumulation rather than trying to leverage small amounts.




It appears that conceptually, you understand the principles, and so it is a matter of you putting principles to practice without getting too greedy in the whole process.



There is some truth to that, but there is also some truth that some posters here only had a few thousand to invest and they did not buy very many bitcoins; however, they are now rich because they held onto their bitcoins, or if they purchased something with bitcoin, they bought back in a reasonable time in order to maintain their BTC holdings.

So folks here may be considered rich or filthy rich, even if they did not have a really large initial investment and even when they may have been a bit chicken shit about investing too much into bitcoin.  If you were around the thread in 2015, there were plenty of folks either shedding decent sizes of their bitcoin holdings and/or failing/refusing to buy bitcoins.

I think that you are correct that it is not too late, and bitcoin remains a good investment, even in the $10k to $12k price arena.

hahahahaha

Hilarious....


I am not going to chime in with substance on this particular point (unless begged) because I already gave my suggestion on this point, about 2 weeks ago. 

I get the sense that you really do not want to learn from your mistakes.

The reality of the matter is that we do not need to "moon" before you can consider and even begin to implement a strategy that is going to cause less emotional behaviors from yourself.

Surely, none of us go from 100 to 0 on the emotional scale without some practice, and likely none of us go completely to zero on such a scale.

You admitted that you already sold 5%, so you can structure a plan that would allow you to buy part or all of that 5% at certain price points that are comfortable for you (which would be on the way down), and you can also set up your future sell points that are comfortable for you (which would be on the way up).  Surely, you are not a lost cause unless you keep repeating the same exact behavior that is causing nervousness and causing you to do the opposite of what you should be doing and failing/refusing to learn from it.  Can we hope that you take some immediate action?  What is the likelihood that immediate action will be taken?  50/50?

Actually, after this current considerable correction to 43% and then to 53% and bouncing around in the 35% to 45% territory, and the earlier three corrections of 30% and 40% and 27%, it seems that $50k would no longer be bubble territory, unless we were to go there in a rapid fashion, such as in one or two months... Wake me up at $120k, you fucks.      

Ultimately, you gotta do what is comfortable for you, but surely, the content of your posts tend to show that you are overly nervous about your whole plan and how you practice your plan.  There is nothing wrong with being nervous, yet there should be self-teachable moments in there too regarding how to better tailor your plan in order to cause yourself less stress and more ability to sit back and relax about the whole process.  You will likely never completely take away all nervousness until maybe after bitcoin causes you so much fucking wealth (assuming that you stick with BTC) that 50% to 90% price corrections no longer matter to you.

Yeah, right.  

I am your friend.  Sell 5% of it now, because you sound like you cannot handle the pressure.  You are over invested and you do not have a plan to buy on dips, and you did not sell enough on the way up.

 




Actually, this seems to be better advice than mine above. 

You go Torquester!!!

Seems like a good practice to act upon such current buying opportunity, rather than hoping that the charts and projections are going to bring us down to $8k or $6k or some other lower projected amount, when we are already in really decent buying territory.

In other words, don't let greed cause you to miss a good buying point (and you don't have to bet all of it on this particular $10k price point).   

Yes.  I agree, and I have a similar practice that involves buying back BTC with a large portion of the funds that I had sold, which kind of undermines some of my BTC selling, but purposefully has served as part of the rationale for having had sold in the first place, and that is to have a bit of extra money to buy back BTC with a certain portion of the funds that were generated by systematically selling during earlier times.

I think that the most recent leg upwards of BTC prices from around $5k to $19,666 caused me to generate (fiat) funds that were quite a bit beyond my expectations and therefore on paper my buy back of BTC is projected to go down so far that it seems quite unfeasible that I am ever going to use some of that generated fiat for buying back BTC, so recently, I have been tending to use some of those seemingly extra funds as any of my personal extra expenses (or mere personal desires to spend money), which can otherwise be concluded as completely pulling profits off of the table and out of my BTC investment system.  Great to have such luxury of such a historically appreciating asset that has caused so much ability for profit-taking and not feeling that the underlying investment has been undermined in any kind of meaningful way by such profit-takings along the way.

O.k.  Fair enough.   I cannot argue with a strategy that seems to emphasize dollar cost averaging and HODLing; however, I do believe that there could be a certain point of time in which you also feel comfortable selling some BTC, and likely that point is going to differ for different peeps. 

In retrospect, I recall that I had established my initial accumulation goal for BTC to become about 10% of my quasi-liquid investment assets, and I believe that I became more motivated to play around and to sell some of my BTC once the value of my BTC (both through accumulation and price appreciation) crossed over 15% of the value of my quasi-liquid investments.  I did not really stop dollar cost average investing; however, I became a lot less gunshy about selling.  Further, we know that BTC prices have gone through the fucking roof - with a 78x increase, and still largely bouncing around in a 35x to 50x appreciation (using $250 as a bouncing off beginning value).   So much crazy ass BTC price appreciation can also cause greater willingness to sell some of it upon price rises.

I don't proclaim to be immuned from getting in unnecessary battles and quibbling - yet it is quite common that posters do not explain some of what they mean, and we do not necessarily attribute bad motive to them, unless they have a history of showing such bad motives (including purposefully attempting to mislead).  It seems that I did not read as much ambiguity as you had seemed to into that sentence.


Of course, each of us can come to differing conclusions about the significance of various events, whether those events are related to news or momentum or a combination of such.

Further, when we are in the middle of a price correction, it can be hell-a difficult to determine exactly when such price correction is over and whether support is slowly being widdled away.  A few days ago, I was beginning to feel some confidence that BTC prices had risen enough to bring us out of the severities of this current correction that is testing $9k/$10k support, and surely, I was thinking that we were getting close to breaking above $13k and getting above $13k would be a kind of sign and also distance us a bit from $9k/$10k striking distance - but in the end, we are back and within fairly close proximity of such $9k/$10k support.

I have no fucking idea if we are close to breaking through such $9k/$10k support, but the longer that we are down here, then there can be questions and doubts regarding whether $9k/$10k support is going to hold.



Hahahahahaha...  We are not going to get rid of any of that any time soon, and seems like infofront has a decently tolerating moderation style that errs on the side of allowing for posts, which I think works pretty well for this particular thread.


I gotta try to recognize humor in a couple of respects, here.

1) There are probably fewer than 5% of readers of this thread that would actually admit to liking either the quantity or the quality of my posts, so you are likely an anomaly in that regard.

2) I feel a bit of unease to be placed into any kind of camp with the roachster, but I suppose if Roachity and I were to go to a bar for beers, perhaps we would be able to finish one or two beers before one or the other of us would have to exit because we just could not take the togetherness any longer.  Sound like a set up for a joke:  "Roach and JJG walk into a bar ...... blah blah blah........ OMG"



I've never put anyone on ignore.  I guess I would rather just browse through the posts that are not to my liking rather than to eliminate them.   This thread does tend to be so prolific though that ignoring could become time-management helpful.


This whole fucking week could be critical, but it is so difficult to say.  I believe that BTC trade volume continues at a high enough level that we are not too likely to experience boring any time in the near future.  Accordingly, it will remain interesting to witness whether we 1) break below $9k to $10k support, 2) get caught in a kind of $9500 to $12,500 territory for many days, or 3) significantly break above $13k... Me thinks that it could take several days to play out beyond the next 24 hours.

One thing with this kind of "work" remains that you retain a lot of discretion, and I doubt that anyone would protest if you were to change the title to top 69 days or top 100, or any other number that is comfortable for you.  Personally, I am grateful for any post that you make regarding these daily weighted averages.   

I understand that the scenario of selling "all" BTC is a strange set up - but your "multi-billionaire" finishing of the sentence comes off as completely fantastical.

By the way, if you are referring to a condition that is multi-billionaire-ish, then you must already be a bitcoin millionnaire, no?  For some reason I have my doubt that you have more than 20 coins, currently, and you are conceiving of a kind of multi-billionnaire status for yourself...    

Something is missing from this speculation, no?  At least, grandma does not charge rent for hanging out in the basement, right?

hhahahaahhaha

Believe me, I can relate to folks who consider themselves to be in a BTC accumulation stage under current BTC price conditions because I was in a similar situation (pickle) in late 2013 and through 2014. 

In retrospect, some folks may argue that I was more fortunate in my position and situation because BTC prices went down throughout a vast majority of that whole 2014 period, yet the truth of the matter remains that no one really knew where or when BTC prices would bottom, and such downward and flat BTC price performance did persist during a large majority of 2015, too. 

During my 2014 BTC accumulation phase, I did not sell any BTC, and even though I considered myself to largely be out of my BTC accumulation phase by the end of 2014, yet it still took me nearly another year (until the end of 2015) before I started to sell some of my BTC and to take a more sophisticated approach to my BTC holdings that was more focused on maintenance, even though it also allowed for continued accumulation, too.   

Sometimes, it is also easier to describe what is happening in retrospect, and by the way, I have a "friend" who  is just entering into BTC, and who does not have a lot of money nor a lot of BTC. 

That friend is considerably in a BTC accumulation phase that could take a few years to play out because that person is much younger than me, and by the time I got into BTC, I already had accumulated quite a bit of capital in other areas.  Anyhow, for my friend, I am attempting to suggest to buy on the way down and sell on the way up, which would be attempting to employ a more sophisticated than what I had done for myself 3-4 years ago.  Therefore, in this newly applied case, the buy on the way down is way more lopsided than the sell on the way up - which means that the attempt at that system buys way more BTC on the way down than it sells on the way up.   Therefore, the selling of BTC on the way up remains small, but allows getting into a kind of practice to prepare for both ways and to attempt to take advantage of BTC's largely anticipated and continued price volatility.  Therefore, such lopsided accumulation of BTC practice that allows for selling too is more sophisticated than a buy only strategy, while still attempting to focus on and prioritize BTC accumulation.