Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA2]

This fits the format of late 2013 / 2014 better than early 2013. early 2013 was this immediate 80% flashcrash that rebounded on huge volume. late 2013 / 2014 was a slow jagged grind down on lower volumes, which is what is happening here. Im not saying it's going to happen but in no way can you compare this chart to the early 2013 chart.


early 2013 which looks nothing like the current chart

[1714123328]

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[1714123328]

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[Torque]

50k by the end of 2018. This correction is just a simple mid 2013 type correction.

Well that would be nice if that happens.

But my back-of-the-napkin data suggests that at the current rate of new account creation, at only around $20k/btc could we have a strong support level toward the end of 2018. For a price level supported higher than that, new account creation would have to pick up steam and start to double time it. Also perhaps a Bitcoin ETF or two launching this year would definitely help.

[JayJuanGee]

And what for one off my stupid friends converted all off his btc into bch and still hodles telling me its the right way :-) :-) what an idiot offcourse @ one point i also give up telling Him to convert iT back as quick as possible.....

One of my friends told me to cash out at $15k. We should listen to friends.

Yeah, right.  

I am your friend.  Sell 5% of it now, because you sound like you cannot handle the pressure.  You are over invested and you do not have a plan to buy on dips, and you did not sell enough on the way up.

 

If you weren't inclined to sell at $19k, then you shouldn't be inclined to sell now.

Just buy more at intervals on the way down. You'll eventually be glad you did.

Or you can wait for a trend reversal, but you may be waiting a long time, and then when it turns you'll just be chasing it back up.
 

Actually, this seems to be better advice than mine above. 

You go Torquester!!!

[Rosewater Foundation]

One of those is a lie

I'm only paranoid because everyone is trying to steal my cocaine.

[Rosewater Foundation]

And what for one off my stupid friends converted all off his btc into bch and still hodles telling me its the right way :-) :-) what an idiot offcourse @ one point i also give up telling Him to convert iT back as quick as possible.....

One of my friends told me to cash out at $15k. We should listen to friends.

Yeah, right. 

I am your friend.  Sell 5% of it now, because you sound like you cannot handle the pressure.  You are over invested and you do not have a plan to buy on dips, and you did not sell enough on the way up.

 

I shoulda been incrementing. I'm ashamed.

[JayJuanGee]

And what for one off my stupid friends converted all off his btc into bch and still hodles telling me its the right way :-) :-) what an idiot offcourse @ one point i also give up telling Him to convert iT back as quick as possible.....

One of my friends told me to cash out at $15k. We should listen to friends.

Yeah, right.  

I am your friend.  Sell 5% of it now, because you sound like you cannot handle the pressure.  You are over invested and you do not have a plan to buy on dips, and you did not sell enough on the way up.

 

I shoulda been incrementing. I'm ashamed.

Ultimately, you gotta do what is comfortable for you, but surely, the content of your posts tend to show that you are overly nervous about your whole plan and how you practice your plan.  There is nothing wrong with being nervous, yet there should be self-teachable moments in there too regarding how to better tailor your plan in order to cause yourself less stress and more ability to sit back and relax about the whole process.  You will likely never completely take away all nervousness until maybe after bitcoin causes you so much fucking wealth (assuming that you stick with BTC) that 50% to 90% price corrections no longer matter to you.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Yes, a very self-teachable moment. Once we start mooning again I need a strategy that goes beyond kicky memes. I'm an adult now!

[mymenace]

Yes, a very self-teachable moment. Once we start mooning again I need a strategy that goes beyond kicky memes. I'm an adult now!

https://image.ibb.co/nGByjG/IT_1516711912572.gif

[realr0ach]

late 2013 / 2014 was a slow jagged grind down on lower volumes, which is what is happening here.

[ghandi]

so we slowly drift sub $10k. Isn't looking to bullish anymore to me. But still it's Bitcoin, could be carolina just by tomorrow

[Rosewater Foundation]

Yes, a very self-teachable moment. Once we start mooning again I need a strategy that goes beyond kicky memes. I'm an adult now!

https://image.ibb.co/nGByjG/IT_1516711912572.gif

Am I the pussy grabber?

[Wekkel]

This fits the format of late 2013 / 2014 better than early 2013. early 2013 was this immediate 80% flashcrash that rebounded on huge volume. late 2013 / 2014 was a slow jagged grind down on lower volumes, which is what is happening here. Im not saying it's going to happen but in no way can you compare this chart to the early 2013 chart.

https://i.imgur.com/A5VQPrM.png
early 2013 which looks nothing like the current chart

It seems the 2013 example is a bit different: the price ran up 10x in about 2 months; the aftermath was brutal and prolonged.
In the matter at hand, the run up was much more gradual; I do not have the time to fully reflect on the comparison of the 2013 aftermath and my expectations for the current 'aftermath', but it almost seems as if the 'aftermath' already took place. Perhaps a short trip to $7,500 to satisfy the perma bears but the damage visible on the 3d chart is minimal compared to the 2013 example.

I remain with my original thoughts: in order to have a post-bubble period one should first have a bubble. Wake me up at $50k  

[El duderino_]

This fits the format of late 2013 / 2014 better than early 2013. early 2013 was this immediate 80% flashcrash that rebounded on huge volume. late 2013 / 2014 was a slow jagged grind down on lower volumes, which is what is happening here. Im not saying it's going to happen but in no way can you compare this chart to the early 2013 chart.

https://i.imgur.com/A5VQPrM.png
early 2013 which looks nothing like the current chart

It seems the 2013 example is a bit different: the price ran up 10x in about 2 months; the aftermath was brutal and prolonged.
In the matter at hand, the run up was much more gradual; I do not have the time to fully reflect on the comparison of the 2013 aftermath and my expectations for the current 'aftermath', but it almost seems as if the 'aftermath' already took place. Perhaps a short trip to $7,500 to satisfy the perma bears but the damage visible on the 3d chart is minimal compared to the 2013 example.

I remain with my original thoughts: in order to have a post-bubble period one should first have a bubble. Wake me up at $50k  

.

And then after you wake me up @ 77k

[mindrust]

If you weren't inclined to sell at $19k, then you shouldn't be inclined to sell now.

Just buy more at intervals on the way down. You'll eventually be glad you did.

Or you can wait for a trend reversal, but you may be waiting a long time, and then when it turns you'll just be chasing it back up.

Who here doubts that Bitcoin will be at $50k by 2020? I don't.

Agreed.

If you weren't lucky/smart enough to call the top, It is just dumb to sell now. Let's buy even more. It is on %50 discount!

[Starving_Marvin]

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.

Many Thanks!

[drbrockcoin]

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.

COME ON DUDE

you clearly did not sell enough...

SELL MOAR!!!!!!

[Neo_Coin]

[realr0ach]

Swarthy Hebrews of questionable fragrance rapidly glanced at the moving charts; their rat-like appendages grasped at the air as if looking for something to steal.  Such creatures of ill-repute were undeniably interested in only one thing, the sound of the clanging of shekels in their demonic coffers.

[d_eddie]

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).
I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?

Hyperbole duly noted. Be that as it may, do you have any evidence that suggests that my understanding is incorrect?

Honestly, I don't know which solution has eventually been adopted in this first version of the LN, but already in 2016 the proposed method was significantly better than the naive SAN technique you hint at.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@emabfuri/bitfury-bitcoin-routing-lightning-network-solution

Here's a relevant excerpt.

Using a fog of war like design, the collected information by the routing algorithm “includes channels within a low hop-distance and paths to randomly selected nodes further away… As a result, a node will have a well-illuminated map of its local neighborhood within the network, with random patches of visibility further away enabled by the selection of beacon nodes.”

So, it's not an initially low TTL that gets conservatively increased as I had wildly imagined, but not so far off either: closer nodes are exhaustively enumerated, while a small set of distant nodes is selected pseudorandomly.

There is a more detailed pdf paper floating around. If you study it, a summary will be well received. I don't have the time or energy right now. If I get either or both, I'd rather actually test how LN works for me, with my own node.

http://bitfury.com/content/5-white-papers-research/whitepaper_flare_an_approach_to_routing_in_lightning_network_7_7_2016.pdf

Inb4 Fyookball - not to mean you would stoop that low, but just in case ;-)
https://medium.com/@jonaldfyookball/mathematical-proof-that-the-lightning-network-cannot-be-a-decentralized-bitcoin-scaling-solution-1b8147650800
It's mostly BS with truth mixed in  - the most dangerous form of BS.

[d_eddie]

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

I dunno.... filter a wireshark dump of all port 8333 traffic? Wild speculation. I don't know how LN comms are routed within the host networking layer.

I was hoping not to have to install special instrumentation like wireshark. Well, when I get to that I'll do what I have to.
BTW, 8333 is for bitcoind. LN uses a different port (can't recall right now).