Some weird s-t is going on, not on bitcoin, of course, but I cannot fully ignore it, watching it with my "peripheral" vision.
Imho, there are "pumper" groups working in unison causing some tokens to "pop" 50-90% a day, then moving to other "targets".
Kind of amusing and annoying at the same time.
I do not have schadenfreude regarding somebody who has these gains, temporarily, I might say.

Not a time to be bearish on bitcoin, though, and I am very happy with "our" ~160% gains for the year to-date.

On the one hand I am obviously happy when the ETF gets approved. There is an ocean of dollars out there that can't use Coinbase/Kraken/Binance and the like. On the other hand I notice I am a bit sad by the thought of it, Bitcoin will never be the same anymore afterwards. It leads to more centralisation and retail buying ETF shares will never learn to self custody and transact in bitcoin (and therefore fully understand and experience Bitcoin). Creating paper bitcoins is a very tempting threat. Wallstreet will love their new and volatile toy for daytarding and there are heaps of trading fees to be earned by the exchanges, encouraging it to change hands like a hot potato. I can even imagine once Blackrock and the likes get a decent market share they start to have an opinion on blocksize, which transactions should and shouldn't be in a block, etc.

Let's see how it evolves, can't do much about it except for not buying those ETF's and hodl your own coins.

OMG, great to be back to my beloved thread.  I see some old farts are still alive and kicking? Christmas time is coming so it's time to share dem gay Christmas cards?    I hope you remember they drive BTC price upwards like crazy?   

It’s hard not to take notice of altcoins absolutely ripping right now. It seems a little early in the cycle to be seeing altcoin season but here it is… I wonder if the newfound wealth these holders of alts are seeing will help be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s advance when they move profits into BTC from other cryptocurrencies.

We always check the price, thats what we do

A job is a job

...

For the first time I have seen TV ads for an upcoming (we hope anyway) Bitcoin ETF.  I saw three ads on two different channels just this morning (Bloomberg and Fox Business) from Bitwise. They seem very confident...

Previously the only ads I saw were for the Grayscale BTC trust.  <--- and their discount to BTC price is narrowing, meaning Wall Streeters likely think the SEC will approve.

I though there's more slide down when bitcoin price range at $40k but good to see that it pump back and give a huge relief to those people got nervous on that situation.  Now since it get back again for sure people is speculating for at least bitcoin to reach at $45k or maybe reach more this figure.

Well  it could mean we break the ath before the 1/2ing happens.

There are multiple "new" factors that unfold in 2024 we may have am early bull top.

I’m working on a move excel sheet examples to show what I mean using forecast 200 wma(borrowed from jjg fu post). I get it tho to me using this is ultra conservative but would prefer to be in a position of doing better than worse and I think using this there is higher probability of being better off.

Yes tax law changes but my opinion is my stash is small so honestly saving 15% is a lot of me in comparison to my stack. If I was 10x my stack I wouldn’t care so much tbh. It’s all about being realistic too I have some hopium projections too but I just can’t even fathom these being realistic.

Should have something up Monday or Tuesday night even create my first thread on this topic.

Want feedback on it help make it better maybe it helps someone who knows

Of course there are going to be challenges in any attempt to rely on a time-based approach to playing the nearly inevitable BTC price waves rather than a price-based approach to playing such waves.. .. Surely, a time-based approach seems to devolve in an attempt to trade.... in a kind time in the market is better than timing the market kind of prohibition (cautionary tale).

I am not even suggesting that you are wrong to make such an attempt (but you are wrong.. hahahahahaha.. cough, cough, cough).., and the fact of the matter is that we can do whatever we like in terms of trying to manage our price expectations including trying to figure out the BTC price waves that are inevitable but we do not know how strong they will be, which direction they will go or how long they will last, even though you are trying to play that game with fractals... and yeah, it may work, but it may not..

From the perspective of this here cat, a price-framed approach seems much more calming.  You let the price come to you, and if it ends up reaching your various points, you pull the trigger, and if it does not reach you, then you just wait it out, and if you are anxious, then you can tweak the price points to make them execute more frequently and at lower amounts, and if you play them right, you are still going to get action at several points in the process, and you would not need to be greedy in the whole matter.. calm, cool and collected and collecting various cash outs along the way.

One of the reasons that some people get nervous about cashing out some BTC early is because they have not yet reached a place in which they even should be cashing out.  So that might be another consideration in that if you are not ready to be cashing out, then you should not be doing it... wait until you have enough BTC (or more than enough BTC) to be cashing out.. and if that might take one or two more cycles, then so be it.  You already mentioned that you have 8-10 more years before you are even thinking about starting to regularly withdraw your BTC, which tells me that you are not at the point of withdrawing any yet.. even though you already have it in your head that you are going to try to time this upcoming price wave.. which may or may not end up working to your advantage.  and of course, peeps can do whatever they like... and let's see how it plays out.

By the way.. either of those HypoMyth charts that show 1) no presumption of buying back and also 2) presumptions of having some buy back success. Either of those charts are fairly aggressive on the sell amounts - and yeah, of course, they are both price-based approaches rather than time-based approaches.  As you likely have noticed, I am a wee bit hostile (not totally hostile, but a wee bit) to time-based approaches, even though surely they do sometimes work, so it is nothing personal against you, because I frequently get into tussles with guys in these here parts about time-based approaches, even though such time-based approaches sometimes do end up working out (at least seemingly more profitable than a price-based approach in those circumstances) in their having had deployed such time-based tactics.

No problem... I cannot really help myself, anyhow, and as you might realize, I have been just chomping at the bit to revisit my HypoPhil model, while at the same time potentially adding to it by showing some buy back ideas.

Here's a couple of charts that summarizes the HypoPhil matter.^**

**You can go to the original post to find further explanation and context for the charts.


Essentially, the charts show that even if you feel that you do not have enough bitcoin (10 & 5 BTC in the above examples), if you end up shaving off profits in relatively modest ways as the BTC price goes up, then you will still end up with a decent amount of BTC and value as the BTC price goes up, and surely the ideas behind the charts could be considered too inactive and too unrealistic because the BTC price might not end up going up, so then you are just stuck holding BTC and not getting any profits or being able to spend the BTC that you hold.

Subsequently, we found out from the real Phil himself that he does not have hardly any intention to be restricted by such charts, because his own way of playing his bitcoin stash includes the needs and/or preferences to draw some profits from his bitcoin on an annual basis, so surely there might be some years in which some compounding benefits could be achieved, yet instead it is quite more likely that the needs (and/or preferences) to draw income from BTC every year ends up stifling the amount of profits that anyone could be expecting to receive from his BTC stash.  

In that sense, maybe we just give up on HypoPhil because he is not even close to wanting to follow such a more strict system.  

I am thinking that if there is such a desire to sell on the way up with an expectation of buying on the way back down, and maybe even a willingness to ride bigger BTC price waves, then we might be able to create a HypoMyth out of this deal, and we could start with a similar portfolios of HypoPhil of 10 BTC and then to show some sell scenarios that spread out the sells a bit further (and more aggressively when they happen) while at the same time showing how it might look to build some buy back scenarios into the whole model.   So we can start out with the same cost basis of $10k per BTC, and so maybe there are assumptions of mistakes along the way, but also assumptions of not having enough BTC, so wanting to sell and buy back.  

I think that with HypoMyth, we still could throw in some fairly aggressive presumptions, including that HypoMyth is not going to sell any BTC until the price reaches at least 1,200% of his investment costs, so in this case the first sell would be at $130k-ish.. and we can go with a fairly aggressive sale of 20%.  Furthermore, we can go with fairly aggressive sales of 20% of the holdings each time the BTC price goes up 50%.

So under this first scenario of no buying back, if there is no buy back of the BTC, then the 10 BTC will get depleted down to 1 BTC by the time the BTC price reaches $7.5 million.  Not really a bad place to be.



The second scenario of having some set buy back plans is more complicated because there are several discretionary variables; however, if we project out an account, we can attempt to account for the various discretionary scenarios and to even create some structure that shows probabilities of success in our buying back at certain rates.

The chart looks like this:



You can probably see why I am so excited to be able to go over something like this.

So under the reinvestment parameters we can see that I divided the reinvestment into 3 parts that draw from the reinvest reserves 1/3 for each of the downward buy back prices that are 10%, 20% and 30% below the sell price, and we are using 80% of the amount that we sold for our buy backs.  The likelihood of successful buy back is calculated as 70%, 40% and 15% respectively, and we are able to average those out to 41.67% (because they have equal proportionality to each other.  Of course, if we had put different amounts into each of the buy back amounts, rather than 1/3 each, then we would have to change the formula for our total reinvestment success in order to calculate in accordance with the probability of each of the buy backs and the ratio (the amount) in each of the categories.  

So a ball park figure shows that if the buy back success ends up being 41.67%, then the amount of bitcoin at $7.5 million would be about 3x greater at 3.12467 BTC rather than just over 1 BTC.

Of course, some people want to presume greater reinvestment success, especially if they sell, they kind of give high chances that they will be able to buy back at lower prices, so it is just a matter of how much lower, so there is a kind of presumption that selling BTC is going to increase their stash rather than decrease it.. .which I surely consider to be a BIG presumption, even if selling is not necessarily a bad thing to do, especially if we are not taking it for granted that we are going to be able to buy back cheaper, even if we are selling at price points that we consider to be exponential price rises (or potential blow off tops).

Of course, guys can create their own spreadsheets like this in order to figure out their own circumstances and to plug in their own numbers and their own projections.  I am pretty sure that fillippone had created an earlier version of the HypoPhil spreadsheet (but I am not even sure any more), but I am pretty sure this is my debut of the buy back parameters.... so those formulas are a bit more complicated but they are still extractable and I have also laid out some format for trying to consider it.. and if anyone has some better suggestion of format, I am all ears.

Thanks for sharing this I’m fairly aligned to most of what you have here. BTC enables early retirement imho,  If you live under US tax regime, you pay cg tax on gains but only depends on your income if you earn less than ~45k cap gains tax is 0%. Selling btc doesn’t count as income, but when your retirement accounts kick in that’s going to skew your income bracket and the cg tax you pay on asset sales.

Most of us don’t have massive stashes but I see Btc as a way to bridge the time between early retirement start and official retirement start. I probably will have more spending power in early retirement than official retirement.one could also posit that your btc stash can set the date of what early retirement is, and using a withdrawal plan you could somewhat forecast this out.

The bit I’m trying to work out now is when I come to this liquidation stage is it better to dca sell in year of halving for the next 4yrs of needed inc or to use something like the 200wma for monthly draw downs over a 4 yr period.

But what does it mean?

She looks like fun and all of that, yet it doesn't look good in terms of symbolism... .. unless we just interpret the movements as temporarily bouncing around at what seems to be a temporary top, that may well not end up being a top.. so then where would that take us?

I am not going to say that I know.. and maybe you are leading me into having to start to solidify myself more in terms of proclaiming $35k to $55k to be our new "don't wake me up zone".. whether we call it a top, some kind of reflection of the bottom being in or maybe the bouncing around ends up playing out as a mere middle....

By the way, there are some people who still consider current prices to be quite a bit below fair market price, and for me it does seem a bit better to be bouncing around 40% higher than the 200 week moving average, and surely a 40% or more price above the 200-Week moving average seems way more stable.. even though king daddy no does not do stable, and least in these here times, so it would seem to be quite fantastical to be either expecting or seeing king daddy as "stable".. not here.. this seems like bat country.. and not really very comfortable to be stopping.. . unless we go up first.. so if there is more UP and then we come back down to here. .then I could see possible stability around here.. but just going up and then stabilizing around the top of a recent price move (right around 60% up if we start at $27k).. I don't see it.. I just don't see it.  Call me blind.. if you like.

Well, using a bit of leverage would have worked during 2014-2015, in early 2017, in late 2018 and 2022, but in my experience, significant leverage always kills your account in the end...maybe that's why i was a bit worried about M. Saylor in late 2022, but, apparently, he did not have any covenants that would have caused him to buy back the loan at that time, despite the fact that MSTR book value was probably deeply negative back then.
If he would have been obligated to buy back the loans, MSTR would have to sell into a 'hole", then go bankrupt, and btc would dip even more. There are multiple stories about successes, like people using credit card debt and buying gobs of btc in 2015, but the stories of some who did the same in an inopportune time are not being told and, obviously, you could have put yourself in a pickle by doing this in late 2017 and 2021.

So, my general thought about the leverage is...just don't do it!

EDIT: someone wants to create the negative weekly handle in US or close the CME gap?
$41894 read...

You might consider my sustainable withdraw thread to be helpful in terms of the kinds of ideas regarding how to consider withdrawing bitcoin and valuing it, and my fuck you status thread for how many BTC you might need to have by certain points in your journey.

Of course, if you end up retiring 20-30 years prior to your normal retirement age, and maybe we can use 60 as that age (since that is what you mentioned), then surely you would have to have bitcoin retain you for the time that you stop working and the time that those other sources of income (cashflow) start to become available to you.  

I personally attempt to consider that we should be attempting to value bitcoin in terms of today's dollar value, so we should be attempting to presume that any future projection of how much we need is accurate in terms of today's dollars, but at the same time, it is quite likely that the way that the dollar (and other fiat currencies) have been so heavily debased in the last several years, there are vary low odds that various kinds of hyper-inflation are not going to kick in at various times, so surely it may well be better to be earning money during those kinds of times rather than being stuck with cashflows that come from various kinds of fixed income sources.. and perhaps bitcoin might be one of the ONLY assets that have any kind of decently good chances of both being able to keep up with inflation (and the ongoing degradation of money) and being able to have some sort of price appreciation on top of it.

There have been many assessments of both stocks and property values that likely show that they have not really gone up in value over the past 20-30 years, but instead have merely been keeping pace with the ongoing degradation of the dollar, so it is kind of a misconception and even a lopsided way in which the ONLY people who have not lost as much are those who are invested, versus anyone who has been relying on cash and income and other ways of saving (not talking about bitcoin) have not really been able to keep up at all, and so bitcoin so far seems to be one of the ONLY ones that is regularly outpacing the degradation of the dollar.. and sure there are some stocks and properties that outperform the others, so there are some ways that you could have had selected stocks that generally outperform index funds and the rest of the market.. but we know that many times asset managers do not even have much luck in terms of just being able to out perform index funds.

Nice plan...here is a a very 'old' remark on love, happiness and money:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srwxJUXPHvE

I bet you are mising out on a lot.
I bet you werent very Christian either.. It is not about the Church either dumbo..

I believe the same for Muslims how it all turned out.

Cant cure human nature eh dumbo?!?

Imagine thinking Jesus of all People would need or Have Bljatcoijns.. Listen to yourself 😆
Spoiler alert.. He would snap it out of existence.

oh dumbo dumbo.. whats gonna come from you huh 😆