Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate it.
Would be nice if we could finally break 38k during the holiday period & stay over. It seems a but of a bitch to break atm.
I am already past 38k I am looking to be over 40k 🔜
edit : 40k is my next 1% sale
Phil...listen..I
suggest not doing these 1% sales at the verge of a bull market, unless you HAVE to.
Peeps were telling this to you before: in 2015-2016, then in 2020-2021 (maybe re shitcoins) and you were arguing that it is all good...it is difficult to move you from that "laddering" opinion that
both you and @jjg espouse.Sometimes we all are acting against the better judgement: I sold stuff (not bitcoin) in the early winter of 2020-2021 just before alts and bitcoin went vertical for 3-4 mo. For what: to do the roof replacement.
Should I waited a bit considering all that I knew at the time? Absolutely, but the idea of a new roof already "infected" my mind, so...a bit less cap gains.
I get it that "sitting tight" as Jesse Livermore was calling it, is difficult, but going backwards, it's the BEST play in the last 20 years in AAPL and AMZN, the best play in NVDA in the last 10, best play in GOOGL since the IPO, best play in MSFT since many decades ago. Eventually, you would not have to sell btc, but would borrow a bit against it, hence NO cap gains.
I stand behind my approach.. it works quite well so long as you have overly accumulated... so it can take guys a while before they get to "overaccumulation" status. I doubt that I need to go through any description and/or attempt to justify my situation again... except to just suggest that my way of dealing with bitcoin does not rely upon figuring out price direction.
There could be some guys who even overly accumulated in the last year or two, and surely Phillip is in a different position regarding Age and surely I don't agree with him on severl things, especially when he was selling BTC around $20k in mid-to-late 2022 and I was surely buying that whole time and even overly buying at that time too... had to go outside of my usual comfort zone of even having to buy more because the price dropped below any expectations and stayed there in those greater than expected low areas for quite some time, too.. if you had not noticed.
I feel that I need to supplement my earlier post because there are both questions of potential over-investment, but there can be other reasons to have sell ladders on the way up, and I am not even sure if I would be defending Philip in this situation because he seems to make trade-offs that are different from the ones that I make, and it seems to me that he is frequently tweaking his approach based on price predictions rather than just letting the BTC price come to him, and so in that regard, I think that he may well not be as overallocated into BTC as he should be (which would less justify making sells on the way up), but there are also ways to incorporate sufficient restraints that he is not playing around too much with the BTC price. Another thing that surely he has is the age factor, and even though he had made statements about working until he is 72 or something like that (which surely is only 5 years from now), which gets me to consider that he might NOT be close enough to fuck you status...even though surely when people reach those kinds of upper 60s ages, there can likely be needs to be more into cash than younger people.
Maybe we could hypothesize a person like Phillip (let's call him HypoPhil), and sure the hypothetical might not get the facts right exactly but still we could put together a package to make it seem more realistic also in terms of how a sell on the way up ladder might work.
Let's say that HypoPhil has right around $1 million in quasi-liquid assets that also includes his BTC, and so $1 million would constitute his total investment portfolio, so in some sense he is around 50% towards getting to entry-level fuck you status.
it is not necessarily easy to figure out how to value each of the assets in terms of their liquidity, and so let's go over some of the potentially BIGGER assets:
1) real estate and/or residence (maybe value the equity at around 35% of its value).. $150k
2) 401K or related - (let's say 70% liquid based on some time restrictions) $300k
3) other stocks, bonds, treasure bonds, paper commodities etc (let's say 80%-90% liquid) $50k
4) businesses such as mining business - shared with partners (maybe value the equity at around 35% of its value).. $150k
5) other potential inheritance (not yet realized so only 10% of value) $20k
6) various valuable personal property, such as cars, computers, electronics, TVS, jewelry, furniture & appliances, collectables, other items (not very liquid - 20% of value) $30k
7) bitcoin - let's say he owns around 10 of them (close to 100% liquid - maybe should be measured in terms of 200-week moving average to be safer $290k.
HypoPhil could say that he is going to sell 1% of his BTC for every 10% that the BTC price rises, which could be the equivalent of selling right around 5% for every time that the BTC price goes up by 50%, and he is going to be just fine... Let's say that HypoPhil had been in BTC for a while and maybe he already did some sales at other prices, but if he had 10 BTC at $40k, then surely he would be able to sustain something like that.
From the table, we can see that every time the BTC price goes up 50%, then HypoPhil sells 5% of his stash, and by the time the BTC price reaches $455,625, he still has 7.3556 BTC which is more than 73% of his original BTC stash, and yeah knowing HypoPhil, he is not going to be able to resist, so there will be times that he is going to likely sell more of his BTC, but that is not a problem, because with the rate of 1% per 10% rise or 5% per 50% rise or 10% per doubling, there is still going to be a lot of compounding of the value... so if he decides to sell more at higher prices, then he would have room to work with, even though we likely realize with HypoPhil, he is a gambler, so he is going to overdo it at various times and sell into his principle rather than merely selling profits.
Even if HypoPhil might not have 10BTC, and he already fucked up at various points by buying USG TBills or whatever they are called, and let's say that he ONLY has 5 BTC, He can still be doing ok with that, even though surely it is better to have 10 BTC than 5 BTC, especially if someone, even elderly like HypoPhil, is going to start a laddering on the way up plan.
I guess part of my point is that 1% per 10% rise is very sustainable, and you can imagine if the BTC price doubles, and if you are merely selling 10% of your holdings, you have another 40% that is able to compound, so you could sell up to 50% and ONLY be taking profits, but if you take all the profits, there is nothing compounding, and so if you think about 100% appreciation, I would be careful even going above 25%, even though it is still within reasonable and still allowing a decent amount of the profits to compound, but a mere 10% per doubling, or 1% per 10% rise, which seems to be something in the ballpark of what real Phil seems to be describing himself as doing (to the extent that you can believe that he can restrain himself and he is not buying Tbills on the side), those are all quite sustainable amounts of selling, even if some of us might be thinking that the BTC price has decently good chances of topping this cycle somewhere between $200 and $800k.. and surely lesser possibilities to overshoot that range too.
Poll
