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Given the average rate over the past month or so, we are going to be approaching a difficulty number with a 5 handle, from its current 2 handle.
This will absolutely crush even the Antminer S9 profitability unless bitcoin doubles or more from here.
This is the single biggest issue I see in mining now.
When I first decided to buy the Antminer S9 in late November, I noted that slushpool had about 48,000 workers (Early Dec.), I will be getting my miners shortly, but now slushpool has almost 74,000 workers and in the next two months that's probably going much higher. And I'm sure its the same at every pool, including Kano which I'm likely to be joining. But I can't see how these miners stay profitable past July-Aug at current rate of increase of mining machines and difficulty.
What are you long term miner's thoughts on this subject?
I suppose we all have our spreadsheets to look at the profitability of mining. Unfortunately there is a lot of guess work of BTC price, miners cost, difficulty/network hash rate. My spreadsheet show that one should be careful when buying more miners - If I start mining tomorrow I should have paid max. $200/Th (all in) else loose money and is better off buying BTC with the money(including power cost) . This is based on- - Bitcoin price double in the next 12 months from $14600 => average 2.5% growth per 2016 blocks (anyones guess) - Network difficulty increase 11% per 2016 blocks (possibly low) Historic compound growth over periods(2016 blocks) back from 13 Jan 2018 5.1156% Growth over 52 periods 6.6199% Growth over 25 periods 7.4302% Growth over 20 periods 7.8076% Growth over 15 periods 9.0211% Growth over 10 periods 9.9122% Growth over 5 periods - Block reward per block 15 BTC (after pool fees) - Electrical cost $0.14/kWh (no growth) Buying a S9 miner at $4000 => ~$295/Th is out of the question for me. Even at electrical cost $0.07/kWh; $265/Th is break-even. I can afford $200/Th => S9 landing cost of $2700 mining from tomorrow. Things to consider - Im not sure if the manufacturers can keep pushing out hashing power at 11% every fortnight. If we sit at BTC say ~16Eh/s then to increase at 11% every 14 days => S9s per period (~130 000 ; ~145 000; ~161 000.... ). BCH also need miners. Maybe someone has better insights here. - Seeing for public we pay in BCH at Bitmain, mining(when more profitable than BTC) or buying BCH when price is low drive down $/Th No use keeping eyes closed and just buying miners when its cheaper to buy BTC. When all is said and done - Mine on! |
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Curious question. If my Slushpool says 100% confirmed is it safe to take the miners off and bring them over here?
Actually you can move them before that and it should not cause any issues. The confirmations are by the network and once the BTC is shown as rewarded you should get that amount even if you move the miners. I need it to get to .1 bitcoins so it will pay out. You can get paid at .01 BTC on slush. FWIW Well Dam, I did not know that, ok. 37th more coming to Kano!!! every Hash much welcome! Mine on! |
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Just gave my R4 an air shower yesterday. A truly alarming amount of dirt/dust came out, and when all was done I'm getting a good 10 degrees lower on the hottest chip temp reported. Cough-cough! Mine on!  Sounds good. When last did you clean it out ? |
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For the current difficulty period the network is through ~82% of blocks in ~73% target period
At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 160 024 151 004 11.85% 18/01/13 12:06
For the current difficulty period the network is through ~91% of blocks in ~79% target period At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 184 039 845 865 13.10% 18/01/13 07:56 Difficulty change in ~24hours |
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Did anyone see this? Wow, from 6% to 50%
Dear ViaBTC users:
In the past 14 months, ViaBTC cloud mining service has covered over 50 countries and regions in the globe, served tens of thousand cryptocurrency investors and received great popularity all over the world. We are very grateful for your love and support and will continue trying our best in providing more investment options.
Recently, due to policy changes, some of our long-term hosting partners are facing a crisis of farm closure as mining resources in Mainland China become more scarce, leading to rocketing costs of our cloud mining operation. To guarantee the long run of cloud mining, ViaBTC has no choice but have to readjust our maintenance fees. The arrangements are as follows:
1. S9 contracts: From UTC time 8:00 12th January 2018, maintenance fee ratio for S9 contracts will be adjusted from 6% to 50%.
Suppose they have recovered their capital and now would prefer mining themselves ? |
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Hi all, Thought it was finally time to introduce myself here. I´ve been lurking since mid-November trying to get up to speed with mining, having given up on it back in 2014. I dragged some of my old kit out of storage and managed to get a small amount of hashing power running (900GH/s) just to kick things off. In November I ordered a couple of S9´s, and in December a couple of A741´s, and they all arrived the beginning of the week. Have the Avalons up and running now, but the S9´s are just too noisy. I´ll have to look at some sort of soundproofing for those. If I can get my hands on some more miners I will look for a dedicated hosting space where noise won´t be a problem, but in the meantime I´m stuck using our empty apartment. Thankfully no neighbours at the moment.  Not expecting to get rich from this endeavour, just having fun, and hopefully making a bit of money on top. Great to have some more miners in the pool. Good luck to your little workers. |
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For the current difficulty period the network is through ~73% of blocks in ~65% target period
At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 151 281 219 479 11.40% 18/01/13 13:37
For the current difficulty period the network is through ~82% of blocks in ~73% target period At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 160 024 151 004 11.85% 18/01/13 12:06 |
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I've been reading up and once I get to the next pay amount in btc.com I'm gonna point my hash at your pool (day or two). Only have a couple old s5's at the moment, but even more reason to avoid giving away btc.
I don't get at all why the biggest pools, are the biggest pools.. I'm guessing they grow because they are big, and they got big by being affiliated with bitmain?
Btc.com says they are giving you fees with their pps+ system or whatever it is, but I have my doubts as to how much of the fee they give out. (shared by many I know)
.... OTOH, they did pay regularly daily, so you don't necessarily feel the urge to have to do a "block dance". I guess that's a plus lol. What do you mean ? The block dances are the only reason most of us mine here. Thats a condition of mining here  |
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I was waiting for the Canaan A8's but at 4K a pop? Wow, that is hard to justify. Currently at 56TH/s with 4 S9's at 14TH/s each. I paid ~7.5K +/- for the miners (bought when they were $1,320 ea), power supplies and PDU's. To get the comparable hash with Canaan is ~23K +/- for the miners, power supplies and PDU's. I love the fact that Canaan is a competitor but WOW, paying 3 times the cost is very hard to justify for less hash rate. Did these miners use gold hashing boards?
Others thoughts?
Yes, Canaan cost is high. We will see how the demand is at that supply cost. I would buy the miner that has the best Hash/(equipment cost + running cost) AND best delivery time. Im only concerned with how much Hash power is added the network - who supplies it is irrelevant(though I like to hate Bitmain - I make friends that way  ). Unfortunately more suppliers mean more capacity to create hash power :/ As a miner one only has to increase your mining hashrate at the same % as the network difficulty increase to hold current BTC reward. Not too difficult for most. |
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They are insanely high on Ebay, maybe they thought they could get more? I dunno. I might have been looking at the wrong item. I just checked the site and it says:
Antminer S9-13.5TH/s
Shipping: March 1-10,2018
2320 USD ( 0.16888080 BTC; 0.94561364 BCH; 9.88517011 LTC; )
So yeah, $1000 over old prices. But still, it's half what they want for the Avalon on that site. Crypto is always higher than Minerwarez, so I will wait and see what they offer them for. I might just stay at my hash rate if they are (in my mind) too costly and 4000 is too costly for my tastes.
Yes, miners are becoming quite expensive. If one mine with the intention to convert BTC to FIAT as the reward comes in then one may need to rethink the strategy. We have to use some calculations to justify buying miners I suppose (or take a leap of faith). On my calcs and some scenario (which will be wrong): With an average network diff increase of 5%-12% per 2016 blocks over the next year the cumulative BTC return after 12 months will be 0.01452 to 0.0251 BTC/1Th. (Excluding tx fee and pool cost) A scenario: Say for 12 month period accumulate BTC reward : 12% diff increase avg. => total BTC=0.01452/Th ; BTC/$ 'double' to $29000 => Return $421/Th Avalon821 at 11Th/s => Return $4633 after 12 months. Antminer S9 at 13.5Th/s => Return $5686 after 12 months. A lot of ifs and maybes but not sure I will buy an Avalon821 at $4000 (excl. tax, shipping, running cost) if want to convert to FIAT within 12months. |
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For the current difficulty period the network is through ~73% of blocks in ~65% target period
At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 151 281 219 479 11.40% 18/01/13 13:37
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I fear in the future bitcoin will become less and less. As pools that keep transaction fees for themselves will keep getting more and more each time bitcoin is moved. Eventually only a few will have any bitcoin. IS it worth as much if only a few have it? I know this is FAR FAR away, but something to think about.
Valid point. About 16.8mil of the 21mil has been mined... I suppose one can look at the BTC distribution in wallets to get an idea of the circulation. Altcoins are also valued relative to Bitcoin so coins that survive should have value relative to Bitcoin - for that matter other asset classes too. |
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For the current difficulty period the network is through ~35% of blocks in 31% target period
At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 145 502 673 245 11.10% 18/01/13 14:38
For the current difficulty period the network is through ~49% of blocks in ~44% target period At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 133 427 745 718 10.48% 18/01/13 16:44 For the current difficulty period the network is through ~65% of blocks in ~58% target period At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 138 440 137 561 10.73% 18/01/13 15:52 |
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Dont let your miner/s celebrate too long.... crack the whip and let them mine on!
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2018 on the board! Nice miners
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For the current difficulty period the network is through ~35% of blocks in 31% target period
At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 145 502 673 245 11.10% 18/01/13 14:38
For the current difficulty period the network is through ~49% of blocks in ~44% target period At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 133 427 745 718 10.48% 18/01/13 16:44 |
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I have put my toe in the pool. Have additional miners setting here but the electricians will not be here until next week. Once we get everything setup we should add 200 Th or so. My son and I had a mining farm back in 2013 but sold it in late 2014. Life has been busy between then and now but the mining bug bit us again. Look forward to cracking a few blocks!
Thrash
All of us here are full of bug bites, you are in the right place again. No cure yet. The 200Th is welcome! |
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For the current difficulty period the network is through ~35% of blocks in 31% target period
At current rate next difficulty estimate : 2 145 502 673 245 11.10% 18/01/13 14:38
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Just my luck: the first block I work on at Kano's is like this. Well, here is to hoping for better luck next time. At least you are getting the 5d ramp up out of the way |
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Thank you Matt and Nazzer. Good answers!
Then I will stick with Kano pool for long term. Happy to know I made the right choice.
You are welcome. I hope you/we have some good luck! |
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