Bitcoin is (very) volatile in it self, so this is just to funny, and it is one more thing that shows that this market is in some way manipulated.
Lets see how many more days they can keep the price this stable.
I don't see any inherent reason that bitcoins should be so volatile. Until recently, the price was very volatile, but what has happened is that rather than one person dropping the price one day by selling and another person spiking the price the next by buying, there are now more speculators, or the ones there just have more money at their disposal, and so the person selling bunches today gives to the speculators, and the person buying bunches tomorrow takes from the speculators and the price remains pretty stable. You are making the wrong assumption, this market is manipulated. This is how I see it, the price should be higher than 3.50 USD right now if everything was played as it normally is if you look at the order depth and knowing that it is very hard to get under 3 USD right now. Someone is building up this manipulation, I think they have bought a lot of bitcoins, they really don't want the price to go down, but at the same time they understand fundamentals so they are selling at 3.20 USD and over, by doing this and have a lot of buy order in the market, they are forcing this fake or manipulated stable behavior. At the same time they don't lose that much UDS or BTC, so they are playing the game of manipulating well (right now). The only way they can lose is if someone will sell massively in to this (fake) bid walls, then they will panic as always and the inflation and panic after that will make it worse. The thing is that we are at 3 USD and the downside is not that big. I think they have by doing this fundamentally put BTC around 1 dollar higher than it should be, but it is at a cost and right now we are printing 2,6 million BTC more until Dec 2012, so they will probably lose (again) in the end. Time is on the downside. |
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Bitcoin is (very) volatile in it self, so this is just to funny, and it is one more thing that shows that this market is in some way manipulated.
Lets see how many more days they can keep the price this stable.
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high inflation? 25% APR is tiny considering how new bitcoin is. Most disruptive technologies fail. But the ones that don't fail, usually grow a lot faster than 25% APR in the first few years.
Bitcoin today is not that tiny. The total market cap of Bitcoin is around 24 million dollars at this exchange rate. And the inflation is 33% not 25%. |
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Yes, the inflation rate is still very high, somewhere close to 25% APR right now. About this time next year it will be around 12.5%, but will suddenly drop to about 6.25% and resume it's slow decent for another 4 years. For any increases in the BTCUSD exchange rate to be sustainable, there must be a growth rate in the economy that exceeds that inflation rate. For the first 18 months, there was no bitcoin economy to speak off, so for the past 18 months maintaining an economic growth rate well in excess of the inflation rate has been relatively easy starting from near zero. However, as the economy grows larger and the monetary base grows larger, the difficulty in maintaining such levels of economic growth increases. I still don't believe that an economic growth rate well in excess of the inflation rate is improbable, and that we are as likely to see a return to steady exchange value growth as the general perception in the strength of bitcoin increases while the general mistrust in national fiat currencies also increases. There will always be noise in the signal to deal with, however.
It is higher then that, it is around 33 % annual inflation rate today. And your conclusion is right as well, good to see people here are able to see the whole picture. |
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It's not a Ponzi (a single fraudster faking returns) at all. It's much closer to a pyramid (people buying in then desperately trying to get more people to buy in), though still different in a couple important ways.
As for the rest of it, that's basically what I've been saying for a while. Until there's a lot more commerce, it's overvalued. But everyone's so hung up on making sure they don't get left out when people start getting rich.
This won't end in 12/2012. That will just raise the bar a little by decreasing inflation. The fact that there's excess currency supply (currently hoarded) will eventually make itself known as people begin putting it back on the market.
This is why I occasionally toss around RevCoin (Exchange-stabilized low-inflation coins), GEM (generation-stabilized low-inflation coins), EnCoin (a more complicated system)... All of which will undermine the wild "We're gonna be rich!" speculation, and leave pricing to market-based immediate needs and relatively short-term economic speculation.
Revalin, right, pyramid scheme is more the right word. Thanks for that. Also, I think it will end in Dec 2012. The inflation rate is so much lower then, so it will have a big impact. |
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This is a big issue, everytime Bitcoin price is going up it is at the same time working against it self with the high inflation that we have right now. This is just the way Bitcoin is constructed today. I know that Bitcoin isn't any ponzi sheme, but it will look as it is. The reason for this is very easy to explain, at $3 the inflation rate gives Bitcoin around $21 000/day of fresh capital (or miners that pay this amount by keeping their Bitcoins - the money has to come from somewhere) that is needed to hold the system intact and stable at the rate it is long term. If the price goes up to $10 or $30 then what is needed of fresh money at the exchanges is $72 000/day or $210 000/day to sustain a stable price at those levels. When the inflow of money doesn't come in at a stable rate, then it will act as if it was a ponzi scheme, because soon after it will fluctuate in a very disturbing way. As soon as the interest is gone for a couple of weeks the price will go down dramatically and vice versa.
So my conclusion is that every time anyone or group wants to start to bring in a bigger interest for Bitcoin they are facing a very very hard competitor. They can keep the price high for a couple of weeks, that is possible. But after that the inflation just hits the price every day, it acts today like a Duracell bunny and just gives those inflation numbers to the exchanges and it will not take a pause because the interest in down for a short period. And that will very fast show it self at the exchange price, and when the price goes down people sell in the trend. Exactly the same way they did when the price went up, a herd mentality.
One of my passions of life has been to really understand why the prices in the financial markets (and pretty much everything that is traded) goes up or down. I have been doing this for more then 11 years so what I am saying is my main conclusion why we have all these people that is right now tired of the way Bitcoin is acting, everyone should understand why this reason is.
And also, many super bulls are very blind and just see the positive signs, they really live in their own world. So for the super bulls, you don't need to comment.
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. I thought more of you cypherdoc, now I understand why you are a super bull, you don't get the fundamentals. Gold is very special, why? Because the total amount of gold and the gold that is refined every year are very very different, the amount is something like 2 % a year that is added to total amount (supply) of gold, that is the reason new supply doesn't have a big impact. Bitcoin will be there some day as well, in like 6-7 years time. Today the inflation rate is around 30 %. If gold had a inflation rate of 30 % the price should have been at around the cost of creating it (plus a margin of a couple of %). Do you see the point now? but markets tend to be forward looking indicators. the market will not wait 6-7 years to price Bitcoin appropriately; they will today tend to project forward as best as possible what they think Bitcoin will be worth once the inflation has plateaued. also you didn't really answer my gold question. without an economy behind it, how is it that the price of gold has gone from $250 in 2001 to $1700 today? answer: speculation. the exact same thing can and will happen, IMO, to Bitcoin. Two things, markets look 6 month in the future not six years (generally). Second, speculation yes, that is one part on the answer the other one is a hedge against fiat currency's. as a rational participant in this market, i can tell you that i am looking way further into the future than 6 mo. i have based my investment decisions on the calculated value of Bitcoin after the inflation has plateaued. granted there are various ways to make that calculation depending on how bullish you are but surely one way is to take US money supply and divide by 21 million.  |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. I thought more of you cypherdoc, now I understand why you are a super bull, you don't get the fundamentals. Gold is very special, why? Because the total amount of gold and the gold that is refined every year are very very different, the amount is something like 2 % a year that is added to total amount (supply) of gold, that is the reason new supply doesn't have a big impact. Bitcoin will be there some day as well, in like 6-7 years time. Today the inflation rate is around 30 %. If gold had a inflation rate of 30 % the price should have been at around the cost of creating it (plus a margin of a couple of %). Do you see the point now? but markets tend to be forward looking indicators. the market will not wait 6-7 years to price Bitcoin appropriately; they will today tend to project forward as best as possible what they think Bitcoin will be worth once the inflation has plateaued. also you didn't really answer my gold question. without an economy behind it, how is it that the price of gold has gone from $250 in 2001 to $1700 today? answer: speculation. the exact same thing can and will happen, IMO, to Bitcoin. Two things, markets look 6 month in the future not six years (generally). Second, speculation yes, that is one part on the answer the other one is a hedge against fiat currency's. |
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zby and others:
this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.
I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.
I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)
Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.
Are you going for a pump and dump? |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should now that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. by making the Economy argument you are totally dismissing speculation or investor demand. explain to me for instance why gold is at $1700? there is zero economy wrapped around that. I thought more of you cypherdoc, now I understand why you are a super bull, you don't get the fundamentals. Gold is very special, why? Because the total amount of gold and the gold that is refined every year are very very different, the amount is something like 2 % a year that is added to total amount (supply) of gold, that is the reason new supply doesn't have a big impact. Bitcoin will be there some day as well, in like 6-7 years time. Today the inflation rate is around 30 %. If gold had a inflation rate of 30 % the price should have been at around the cost of creating it (plus a margin of a couple of %). Do you see the point now? |
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That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. As supply increases and demand remains the same, the price will try to fall. That much is obvious. But there are two false assumptions there: 1) supply increases and 2) demand remains the same. Even if we do assume the 2) is true, 1) is still left unproven. In fact, going by your theory that the miners are selling their coins, supply should be remaining relatively constant. What we might be looking at is an increase of demand because of speculation. And speculation is a good thing: it pushes the price up. The amount of Bitcoins minted each day is a constant until December 2012, and if we assume this is supply then demand only needs to stay constant for price to not go down. As speculation increases, demand will increase with it - fueling a bull market. Yes, but the price of one Bitcoin makes a lot more harder to sustain when it is at 5-6 dollars, sustaining high prices would have to give a lot of money/effort in some way to this Economy long term. Once again, because of the high inflation environment for every dollar the price is higher it will need to get around 2,6 million dollars in to the Economy in some way, let it be miners that keep their Bitcoins or fresh fiat buyers at the exchanges. This is a fact, short term people miss this fundamental fact and then cry ans ask why the price is once again down. Because of that every intelligent investor should know that and take advantage of that and don't get caught in the exaggerated bull thinking. |
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By saying "this is only confirmed when we pass the $3.8 - $4" shows me that you don't know what you are talking about, passing 4 dollars doesn't mean that it will will go higher. Fact. It means it could go higher as well as the way I see it, that it will go back to low 2 dollars. 3.34 x 7200 equals 24 000 USD. That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. This is nothing but flawed thinking. The "7200 x price" calculations are useless and don't mean anything. For mainly two reasons. First of all the inflating amount of bitcoins is not the same thing as the inflating amount of let's say, dollars. New bitcoins are created by users and many of them decide to save bitcoins instead of selling them. This makes a good portion of miners actually investors at the same time and the decisions they make for selling bitcoins are exactly the same as they are for investors. So if we can assume that more investors are starting to buy bitcoins using a long term strategy, there are a lot of miners doing the same as well. So the selling pressure the miners cause is also largely dependent on market psychology. The effect of new coins to the price is not a static "7200". It varies based on many factors and some of them are the same factors that cause an investor to either buy or sell. Then there is the other reason which is simply the fact that Bitcoin is such a small currency, so dominated by speculation, that the inflationary properties have little effect in any case. The amount of volume that is caused by day traders, investors, speculators is so large that it makes even the maximum of 7200 per day seem quite a small amount. It's the demand and the faith of all the players in the market that move the market. The same 7200 coins were created every day when we skyrocketed to $32. I admit that the new coins do cause some selling pressure but I it's a minor issue. The key issue is market sentiment, this affects the price a hell of a lot more than the "issue" of 7200 coins created every day. The Bitcoin Economy cost some kind of effort, we can calculate it pretty easy in fiat money, in USD it is equal of 7200 x actual price / day. That is the fact long term, short term many things can happen. The miners pay for their bitcoins as well, it is a cost, same way it cost money for the fiat buyers. The Bitcoin Economy isn't that big today to handle a 4-5 dollar price with todays inflation rate. Maybe it can handle a 3 dollar price, but more likely it will go down to two dollars again. |
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its been a while since i've looked at the level 2 but what strikes me now vs just a few months ago is the increase in liquidity we're seeing. there are bids and asks at every penny up and down both books. we didn't used to see this.
also the shape of the bid vs ask side is interesting. whereas most of the high volume sells are stacked up close to the price, most of the bids are placed further back while the total bid value book is much higher than the asks.
what this means to me is if the bulls can crack those asks up to $3.50 there should be relatively clear sailing to $4 and probably beyond.
this is totally expected behavior at this point in the cycle with whats going on in the general economy as well as the bitcoin economy. the bulls are back in business.
Bulls are back in business because they work and think as a herd, they buy in when things goes at the right direction in the short term (all of them at the same time) and forget all about the long term fundamentals. Then they cry when the price after a while gets back to where the Bitcoin Economy is at right now with the high inflation environment. This bull periods can ONLY happen in a short term fashion. |
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My guess is that you have been wrong with your predictions for the last 6 months. This is a beginners mistake of a bull trap. You are incorrect. I was wrong for a time which cost me some money but I basically got it all back during the decline from $8 to $2. During that time my understanding of the market has improved massively and ever since I've been right most of the time. So lets see who is right for the next three months, I think the price is much closer 2 dollars in 3 months, and from what you have been writing you don't believe that. The price today is at 3.34 dollars. I don't like calling prices for a specified timeframe, especially not now. Even if I'm seeing signs of a reversal, it's is only confirmed when we pass the $3.8 - $4 area. Before that happens I simply think going back to $2 is unlikely, not impossible. We could still be bouncing between $2 and $4 for a while longer. But what I do believe in is that Bitcoin is here to stay which means that sooner or later, most likely sooner, the transaction counts start going up again and then prices below $3 are history. When this happens exactly is hard to say but both the price and the transaction counts are showing signs of a reversal. Signs are just signs though, it's the same as hearing rumors about something. We need more to confirm it. By saying "this is only confirmed when we pass the $3.8 - $4" shows me that you don't know what you are talking about, passing 4 dollars doesn't mean that it will will go higher. Fact. It means it could go higher as well as the way I see it, that it will go back to low 2 dollars. 3.34 x 7200 equals 24 000 USD. That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap. |
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My take on the analysis in this thread is that it's clueless. What we're seeing are further signs of a reversal and right now we are seeing more and more bear traps going off. A longer term reversal can only be called after we break $3.8 and $4 though but that happening will not cause a drop to $2 (a ridiculous idea) but it will in fact multiply the demand from the players who follow trends. And many do. A drop to $2 in any near future is getting more and more unlikely at this point and if we pass $3.8 I'm willing to bet that it's not going to happen for a very long time at least. My own take on the situation is that it's only a matter of time when we don't see prices under $3 anymore. The buying opportunities at those prices are close to over. If not yet, then definitely soon. The whole talk about manipulators playing games is irrelevant. What we are seeing is more and more small and big players changing back to a buying long strategy which will make any price crashes that much more difficult. Players with a long strategy are in no hurry to sell. Not going to sell at $3.5 and not going to sell at $4 either. Miners holding bitcoins are investors as well and not all of them are going to mass sell at $4, some of them are investing for long term because they see the possibility of further price increase. Most fundamentals support the current market behaviour strongly. We are seeing a surge of activity in the Bitcoin community, everyone is doing something to improve Bitcoin. We've recently had the best media coverage in the history of Bitcoin. We obviously had much more media coverage during the summer, but a high percentage of that coverage was focused on the massive percentage gains in Bitcoin price. Now we're finally getting some coverage that is positive in some other way than as a speculation vehicle. And we've basically had no bad news which is a good sign as well. One of the strongest fundamentals in my book, the transaction count, is looking more and more like it's making a complete reversal. Here is the chart for both raw values and 7 day average, look at it: http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions & http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false×pan=&daysAverageString=7&scale=0Bottom line is that unless the transactions go back into decline mode, the price will not go back to decline mode either. My guess is that you have been wrong with your predictions for the last 6 months. This is a beginners mistake of a bull trap. So lets see who is right for the next three months, I think the price is much closer 2 dollars in 3 months, and from what you have been writing you don't believe that. The price today is at 3.34 dollars. |
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Someone/the manipulator/the cartel is manipulating this market hard right now, the only way they will succeed is if they will get the dumb money with them is this rally. One big sell off from someone and they are down with their pants. Big orders are replaced and put in, the bots don't know how to act. |
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A light version of option 2 is right now happening, lets see how much dumb money that will fall for this by holding their bitcoins at this levels or even buying. Miners will get very happy the nearest weeks.
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So fastandfurious, what's the market going to do from here?
Read post #25. My conclusion is that it will hit 2 dollars again. Depending on the way the market wants it, it will take less or more time. Before it was easier to see the patterns with Price and Time. Now it is very hard to see Time, but it is still possible to give a future accurate estimate for the Price. |
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