Bullshit. (Is there no limit to your excrementpression?     )

UPDATE: EV ANALYSIS FOR BITCOIN



Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted mean (average) of possible future outcomes.

We are talking Bitcoin, and about 5 years timeframe here, so 8/2022.

1. Let's start by everyone asking themselves: "What is the probability of Bitcoin price being lower in 2022 than what it is now?"

This scenario includes everything from total technology/network failure to a total breakdown of law and order, or unanimous draconian regulation by every government in the world to kill off everyone who has possession of a string of letters or part thereof, to just a multi-year downtrend in Bitcoin price coupled or uncoupled with increased adoption (2014 is a prime example that price (-80%) and adoption (+100%) do not correlate 1:1).

In a meeting with respected people in the area, 2.5 years ago, the answers ranged from 20-50%, with a clear bias to 20%. On the other hand, the 2.5 years elapsed since, act as a further proof to the downside (smallness of this figure). Let's use 33% as a median nevertheless, since we ARE at ATH now, which might hinder new ppls from buying unless properly instructed (as in here). (The longest time Bitcoin has ever been below its ATH is ~3 years, so history is not supporting 5 years of flatlining really, despite ath'ish cap now.)

2. Then, "What is the probability that we will not reach a new, higher, ATH in 5 years?"

Counting the major surges alone, we have set a new ATH at $32, $266, $1242 and '$4350 and counting'. The first three were taken, each with a 5x or 10x, and 3.5x (and counting). Now, to be realistic, it may still happen that they all were isolated incidents, not happening again, but also it's possible that they were not, and there is some merit in the coin, the technology, etc. Of course I could give (and have given) several fundamental reasonings why I believe the latter, but for the purpose of this, let's keep it simple and assume that it can as well happen or not, so 67%.

This naturally includes the case 1., therefore this scenario, and also the (first) that the price will be lower than $4,000, are equally probable as the remaining, >"New ATH" (higher than the one set this year).

3. Now, "what will then happen?"

To assess the average value of a bitcoin in 5 years, we will have to play out the sub-probabilities of different outcomes 'inside' the scenarios outlined above.

=>

What we get is 3 scenarios with equal probability:
i) $0-4000
ii) $4000-'2017 ath'
iii) '2017 ath' ++

So, therefore, we dismantle each of them:

i) about $1000, esp considering that '0' occupies a swath of this scenario

ii) Utilising Stetson-Harrison method to my advantage, I decide that $7,000 is exactly in the middle of $4k and $10k (which the method decided to make the chism between this, and the most obscenely profitable scenario: exactly at $10k).

iii) Since 'anything is possible', the scenario universe may as well be collapsed to a round figure $50k average, for this scenario. The doubters may eat cake, as usual(x2).

The EV for BTCUSD in 2022 is therefore $58k/3 = $19,300/BTC. This is 400% (5x) higher than the current price. Even if we made gross errors in assessing the probabilities, it's hard to argue that the scenarios themselves are ill-constructed. It is very hard to make holding a position in Bitcoin a losing proposition from here. As people realize what I am saying, it is likely that this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Beware - 5 years is a long time!  

(Earlier versions of this method have been used to justify non-holding in 10/2010, and holding, in 11/2011, 3/2013, 2/2015.)

The portfolio presented, minimises the total loss risk, and is hedged about most probable scenarios 2017-2020. It includes interesting new techs,and DAGcoin may be a pump but will nevertheless net obscenely in this market environment. A 10-bagger for all who dare to enter the 'MLM'ish coin...

(If I had not bought XMR in 2014, I'd also have missed out, think about it! This thread is the commemorative of my first altcoin purchase ever, ~5,000 XMR, in 2014-5-24, by solicitation of David Latapie (RIP).

At present, I'd invest in:

BTC
ETH
XMR
DAGcoin
Mark (my new project, coming up this year)

About the same in each..

Thanks pal.


ADD: Well the day was not the best I had, but also not completely without laughs. The 'threadviews' continues to amuse me For some important reason, it's instrumental to pretend that in the world, approximately 50 people get a chance to read this (whereas a happenstance article of mine in Finnish gets 100,000  ). Imagine what would happen just if...

Is THIS supposed to be a threat?

Yes it's possible to put in 7 million, withdraw 0 and be regarded as a scammer by the profite(e)rs... 

What exactly was my wrongdoing?? 

I agree, peace is necessary.

~ Pliny the Elder, ‘The Natural History’, circa 77 A.D.


I just need to live with it.

The thread is opened for the reason that people would go on in their path towards more understanding.

For a change, I am interested in writing simple word that anyone can understand.

If you want difficult word, please read Voice again from start, or meditate upon how M2 broke the validity of M, XMR, BTC, USD/EUR and physical PM all in one go (in March).

Please wake up.

I do not intend to do much more signs and wonders, because if you don't get even the basics here, it truly does not matter if I scattered my remaining money to the poor and let my body be burned in fire (as Bible also says in 1 Cor 13).

It feels a bit hard to have graduated from the usefulness of money when you big babies still want it. I will make the next money thing, but it will be the last. People will wake up. If anything, I will compensate the ones who had Markka at the time of the rebellion. Does not make sense to pay those who did exactly opposite to what I said. So consider that no one can do anything, the fork is already in the past.

Enjoy life rather, and meditate upon my post history. You will get it.

And now for something completely different:

Meanwhile, he's had a beautiful day, so full of Universe signs (9-11 etc) that it handily matches the beautiful days in December. Heart full of thanksgiving, he lays down to sleep, wondering how it is possible that, despite the massive diversification, the enemies have managed to steal almost all of his assets, the part that he did not himself give away. There is not even a single million that he could just spend at will.

At times, he does consider his own situation. Thinking, doubts, come to mind: What is the point in acting so fantastically that usually cool people, such as the ones behind Embassy theft, or the STS people in CK, lose their mind and do everything to destroy what he has built? Everyone says that a compromise is required for the amicable relations to be restored. Suddenly Voice shows 999 and 1111111, strong signs to fend off sudden disbelief, and says:

- My dear, I have compassion on you. What has happened to you, is more than you thought was possible to handle, but you have to admit that you have more than survived the incredible phase of prolonged divorce, fast growth and consciousness upgrade, massive changes in life practicalities, and the flat-out truth that darkness cares nothing about justice. Doctor just told that you seem more balanced than ... ever.

This is the last battle, and there is no taking prisoners. You have not come to the planet to make cease-fire with the only thing that is 'wrong' with Universe - darkness, STS, the illusion of separation. But that does not mean you have to fight. There is no enemy! We are all one, and in the process of waking up. Your understanding that liar is in itself no worse than truther, and thief no worse than honest one, is a great phase-shift. They are just polarities - if a liar or a thief is single minded for the benefit of others (STO), you embrace her. When less than a year ago, you were completely entangled in right and wrong, and had many concepts and judgements, now all chakras are wide open, catalysing change for everyone you meet. As you don't judge anyone, you are able to connect with everyone. Think about the boost! And this is only one of your upgrades.

In no case, there is possibility to 'lose' because there is no win possible for darkness! If the victory of darkness in any way was possible, it would have happened long time ago! The normal state of Universe is that of blissful rest. We all win, no one loses. You get rewarded for being the linchpin guy to make this paramount transition. Being important does not mean you have to stop and plan very carefully. Just continue in the flow, which will show you when it is time to do or to be. It is happening and there is no way to stop it. On the right track, you are.

Why bother about General Meeting ??

when the fact is that I never surrendered the absolute 51% majority in the game to anyone, yet people post here in bright daylight, only pausing to button their darknesshole with both thumbs, before tasting how sweet it is...

What is important by the book, is that since the rebellious ouster, nothing you do really matters, it's not my game.

There is no money, no value, even every single M3 I still had at the time of ouster, is effortlessly stolen.

Are you stupid or what to even talk to the thief, crichton?? How exactly you will ever get anything out in a game of his?? Are you kidding me that in my time, you only want cash out, and suddenly when he steals everything the lightpeople had brought (incl my EUR 7,000,000 total losses), you still believe you have someone to scam here??

As in, hard to believe anyone is after any entertainment value in the future, so yeah you got this one but I have something in mind, as I just said.

For further clarity:

There is no evidence that I ever took a penny out of the game.

What I put into game, was 3 years of work, and paid many EUR-denominated stuff of the game from my pocket, plus gave out 20,000 XMR without strings, plus 20,000 XMR sold to get Markka (which was blocked=stolen from me by Chrichton and other scum, excuse me, high-ranking players who just don't think my loss as theirs, especially when they pocket it), about 10,000 XMR still blocked=stolen in the game where my access has been taken away, 3.45 million EUR as settlements to people who did not participate in the thefts (obvious is that people who see me bringing them money, and do not help when it's taken away, OR worse yet pocket it, will never get anything, and this applies to many people here - thief Crichton has sinned, and possesses my money, and it will never bring anything but curse to him until he repent and give money back to ME (and then to others since I have no interest in money, being master of it).

So one of us is lying scammer, and all readers may freely pick their side, identifying with either him, or me. I would be so glad that some who actually lost would give Trust feedback to the ones whom it belongs. If you stick head deep into ass like OZ, Karma has a difficulty to give your reward. You must speak up. Enough of this darkness already.

If you think I am just talking, you may be wrong. I mentioned something about abrupt ending for those who live in countries where Police does not uphold justice, and that includes you.

U sad for Rules to come back?? Don't worry, who was it again who said Constitution has no effect. . 

You get what u wanted, now prepare to get what I want, lizard.

No, the blame is on you, brownnose. See how quickly moderators act (deletion from this thread, despite the tired podiumtalk about non-moderation) when u ask. Then that sad nongrowth, smooth, chastises ME for taking out the shit of my own players by self-moderation.

MODS: PLEASE RETURN RULES (all deleted posts (Apr-2017)) TO THE THREAD: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1616976.msg16248889#msg16248889.

If nothing happens, it just serves as an additional lesson for those that still have hope. Seeing the perpetrators commit themselves to act of self-destruction would scarcely displease me more than seeing them alive.

"If you do not pay back at least 10% of what you stole from me and Zechariah, you will surely die!"
- HH Grand Duke Paul of Soul to HEm David Cardinal Latapie, 2 months prior to the latter's death.

Man, you gotta wise up soon, please, and amend your thefts and sabotages.

You can not delete the Topic.

Whereas it is true that I deleted it, as part of waking uw up, it does not change the fact that I wanted it undeleted only a few days later.

The wish was presented to the global admins, who alone CAN do it.

I do not have permission to undelete stuff.

So, which one is in error? (The answer tells the essence of you of course)

If the past decisions had been such achieved, CK would have a future...

But whatever, my kindness is just heaping coal upon the rebels.

In the end, all enemies are converted (or enjoy the Central Sun, their choice). Darkness existing is a proof that it's not the end.

Your stupid assholeness is not without merit, though. I am considering to add the following to the TOE with me:




The darkness-bred variety such as you, spend up to 30 pages to assholishly elucidate that they only screw you, not the other way round. I am ready to serve everyone, and opting out is easy: just start talking about money that you pretend to deserve from me.