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If seasteading ever fails as an option then spacesteading is next in line.
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The filthy casuals may be circumspect tonight...  |
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https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-36All,
You have all been waiting for an update on our chips and we can today announce that the Fabrication process has finished and the wafers are on their way to the packing assembly house right now. They will be in the assembly house for a few days before they make their way to us in Sweden and of course via the fastest method possible.
While it’s going to be a tight and we always knew it was. Time to market is everything in this business after all. We have also broken a few speed records in this business to bring a design to market in the fastest time possible. But we are still on track to have Jupiter/Saturn shipping this month.
We will update this news site as often as we can with news. We will even have some videos this week from our Swedish assembly factory as some of our smaller parts begin to be assembled ready for full production the minute the chips arrive.
We would also like to take this opportunity to say that while we have remained as silent as possible on our simulations and only promised figures that we know we can meet. we will not down clock our chips to 400 we will release all our machines with the greatest hashing power we can. So yes the rumors are true Jupiter will be greater than 400 by a significant margin as a free gift from us to all our loyal customers. The first chips off of the production line we will run at full speed in our launch video so you can all see exactly how fast we can make Jupiter run.
Thanks
KnCMiner Team Writhe trolls; rejoice investomers.
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2 weeks, 22 hours to go. Chill out, you weak-willed, yellow-bellied nervous nellies; you nattering-naybobs of negativism  |
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So you're just trolling, gotcha. I did have you on ignore after all.
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ROI doesn't look so good for October delivery.
Anyone else consider asking for refund?
I just sent an email asking for a refund on my mercury - for the record, I would have been better off buying over 25 BTC at the time (will only buy me about 17 BTC at today's prices). I'll update on how long the process takes or if there are any issues. I'm guessing the number of refund requests they receive may go up over the next week or so. I am a little bummed that I'll be forgoing the mining experience with KnC's asics. Non-preorder? November Saturn? Yeah, numbers are a bit thin there. |
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It's hard to agree with your logic when you yourself, faced with a decision to pull back your order, chose not to. Because you think that *others* (who are more rational?) would  You misunderstand me. I wouldn't because I could only get a November ship date. You cannot buy a first 500 Jupiter anymore, such as I have. If you could, I -would- buy. |
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Maybe this is just too advanced for some...  But thought It might make someone smile...  What wire gauge are you using, about 14? |
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7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price.
You wish! You seem to think hardware prices will remain steady, in reality they will drop as fast as difficulty shoots up. Cointerra preorders are already being discounted at a rate of 50% per month now, not surprisingly perfectly in tune with D doubling per month, and thats not going to stop until marginal production cost approaches mining profitability per TH. The latter is easy to calculate (I went with cointerra's specs), but the question is, how much does it cost to make more 28nm asics ? I did the math in another thread given a $5000 price tag per 28nm wafer (generous) and 2-3x cost for stuff like testing, packaging, PCBs and vendor markup, and it results in a difficulty somewhere between 100 and 200 billion at todays BTC exchange rate and with EU electricity prices. Thats a ballpark figure, it may end up being half that or double that, but not 1/15th of that, no way. I cant predict how fast we will reach those levels, it could be many years, but the only thing limiting that is the ability of all asic vendors combined to produce and ship their products. There is no other limit. Considering the amount of vendors and the fact that at least some of them will be able to manage a supply chain better than BFL, I wouldnt be too surprised to see this happen in less than two years. At 100 or 200 billion difficulty, the price of bitcoin would probably have to be a few thousand dollars to cover electricity costs. That's why it can't go that high. Even Cointerra miners aren't that efficient. |
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...
Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
...
You're ignoring that: 1. Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost. I'm not ignoring that. I assume people have pulled back on their mining equipment orders in the last months as diff skyrocketed. If I were looking to buy today, I wouldn't. 2. People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss. I don't think that's as widespread as you think. People with real money tend to do their due diligence, or else are quickly stripped of capital. 3. Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so. Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4. People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.
When the cost is a few $10 bills, no one cares that much if they make money. I look at that as the chewing gum of ASICs. You never need a reason to chew gum. But a Jupiter is a 6 course meal. |
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There's an easy way to tell where the difficulty rate should end up depending on the current price of bitcoin needed to cover electricity costs. The "natural" position for the difficulty to come to a rest at, as we know, is at a place where the proceeds from mining is just over the cost of electricity needed to mine. So, look at the difficulty per month that corresponds to the current price of bitcoin and that's the upper limit of difficulty, realistically. So here I have a readout. 53 BTC is the cost of one Jupiter paid the first week when Bitcoin was $130, and hosting was another 22 BTC--75 total, but you have to remember you're not paying for electricity costs anymore so set that to zero, and 520 gh/s is the 30% improvement over 400 they mentioned (and that's probably still low).  A Jupiter, depending on local power costs, costs between $50 and $100 a month to run. So if the price of bitcoin is $125 as it is right now, then we can mine profitably until ~1 btc a month is generated. Which on that image is between April and May of next year, assuming it's close to right (which is questionable). But notice the difficulty on the left that corresponds to that mining amount: 7 billion difficulty. 7 billion is the upper limit of difficulty at a $125 price. Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less. At 1 billion we're making 6 btc a month, at 2 billion it's 3 per month. Not bad. We will have long since achieved positive ROI. If the price of bitcoin remains at less than $200 next year, we will be cemented in place as the new mining kings. Because, having run the difficulty up to its natural place, there's not enough low-hanging rapid profit left for people to invest in miners. Too risky, not enough quick profit. We're going to ROI in a month and change. Anyone buying a miner in January might have to wait a year to ROI, if they ever can achieve it at all. Now, all bets are off if bitcoin runs up to $1,000 next year, and then everyone buying miners now will look like a genius, and here's the scary and hard to even think about part--we won't even mind making only a few tenths of a bitcoin per month at that point, because that will be a couple hundred dollars. And the mining game will start all over again  March 2014, here we come. |
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For ideal efficiency you want no more than ~60% load on the PSU. So people are getting a 1,000 watt PSU to achieve that. 850w is adequate but not targeted towards efficiency, on a device that will be operating full bore, 24/7, it makes sense.
Also you could get two 500w PSUs and feed one to each side, but I wonder if you face an additional risk if one board is powered on before the others? Might that cause problems?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg3124339#msg3124339Aha, thanks for the mythbusting. |
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For ideal efficiency you want no more than ~60% load on the PSU. So people are getting a 1,000 watt PSU to achieve that. 850w is adequate but not targeted towards efficiency, on a device that will be operating full bore, 24/7, it makes sense.
Also you could get two 500w PSUs and feed one to each side, but I wonder if you face an additional risk if one board is powered on before the others? Might that cause problems?
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The secure payment methods were already mentioned since day one, good try though, shouldn't you be in the KNC thread slobbering all over their knobs, when someone posts something negative? Again, no money was taken, nothing occured. Until xcrowd disappears for a year than you can talk shit all you want.
Even then you can't call it a scam because again NO MONEY WAS TAKEN, feel free to circle jerk eachother with random theories not based on a shred of evidence.
As I said, you don't know that. If the point of the scam was to bilk investors, he could've walked away with millions already, and all he had to do was show a few hundred/thousand pre-orders. So you all may have unwittingly enabled a scammer. |
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What do you think? Scam or not? Honest question, honest answer...
If we take the definition of scam technically, then no. Xcrowd took in $0 dollars, can't really call it a scam. We don't know that for sure. One person mentioned a 3rd party scam, even that doesn't qualify. Showing an investor proof of market and actual demand, to raise funding doesn't classify as a scam either. It does if he runs away with the funding money after it's released to him. As of right now the only thing we can do is wait. There is no point in coming up with random assumptions. You'll probably never hear from him again; the scam has run its course. If it's not a scam it's probably a test of this site, or some journalist writing a story on asic scams and we'll find out about it then. Perhaps if it was a journalist the goal was to find out how many people would try to bribe an ASIC manufacturer to get to the front of the line. The whole thing could be research on a story into BFL's foibles and corruption. |
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This still happening?
Nope! The scam has run its course undoubtedly. You mean the next time some anonymous 23 year old online women's clothing vendor wants to take tens of millions of dollars in preorders, we'll need to think twice ? I'm honestly expecting him still to pop up and rag on all the people who put in for pre-orders and announce the whole thing a ploy to test people's gullibility when it comes to miners. Maybe his whole con was to take the money of those unscrupulous people who will contact a miner-builder and offer cash to move to the top of the line (as KNC had recently admitted they'd been besieged with, and what is probably what happened to Avalon's chips). The conman conning a conman is one of the best cons there is, he may reason. Take the money of someone trying to cheat the system. |
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This thread is a total joke - you have finger pointers, speculators, trolls(negative speculators), and those who actually want to share information. To be called a fanboy would be a fallacy because there are no physical products yet to become a Fan over - hence there are only optimistic speculators. If I read correctly earlier on, day one orders are expected to in the next 10-15 days right?
Even the most optimistic speculators do not believe they receive unit in two weeks. I believe they hope the unit will be delivered early next month, saying no chip or prototype will be shown before KNC ship Here you go, put your bitcoin where your mouth is: Bitbet: KnCMiner will deliver ASIC devices before October 1st |
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Next time don't do a combo performance + ship date. It should be ship date only, and if you want to bet on performance, bet on that separately.
That's way too easy, they could ship you a miner made of block eruptors (actually, there are some on eBay!) and get away with it. Just to win a 40 btc bet? That's ridiculous. |
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Next time don't do a combo performance + ship date. It should be ship date only, and if you want to bet on performance, bet on that separately.
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