Did you watch the game ? Frankfurt took the early lead and could have made it 2-0 shortly after, but Silva was too pathetic. Leverkusen then needed a penalty to make it 1-1. The scoreline looks like quite some beating, but it could easily have gone the other way, like so often in football
Frankfurts odds probably didn't have that much value if any, but so didn't Leverkusens. Don't think they would have won this one way more than 50% of the time. Sometimes the odds are just fair and you should just leave those games alone then, but thats easier said than done

Ja, hier kommst du aber trotzdem in Steuerschwierigkeiten, wenn du versuchst sukzessive auf die Wellen aufzuspringen, denn die 4 Phasen spielen sich vermutlich in einem Zeitraum < 3 Jahre ab (die BTC sollten nach Bärenmarkt schon steuerfrei sein).


Das ist mindestens zu 50% eher eine Frage der Einsatzverteilung anstatt einer Frage worein diese Einsätze gehen imo. Ohne groß drüber Nachzudenken wurde ich am Ende eines Bullenmarktes eine 50/30/10/10 Aufteilung auf BTC/Top5-10/etablierte Altcoins/Newcomer für aussichtsreich halten, um eine überdurchschnittiche Performance zu erhalten ohne dass ich zu hohes Risiko gehe. Und zusätzlich kommt dann dem richtigen/perfekten Timing (siehe unten) auch nicht so eine hohe Wichtigkeit zu.

Was nach erfolgter geplanter Einsatzverteilung an Coins in dem Mix bei etablierte Altcoins/Newcomer reingehört, ist natürlich unheimlich schwer. Etablierte Altcoins ist noch bisschen einfacher, da x15 oder x20 nicht unbedingt den Kohl fett macht. Bei den Newcomern ist die Spanne größer und hier würde ich eher nach Hype gucken und weniger auf Fundamentals, da wir ja eh nicht allzu lange drin bleiben wollen.


Kann man nicht Perfektes Trading gibt es eh nicht, selbst die Besten der Besten liegen oft daneben - wahrscheinlich öfter als sie korrekt liegen - und du wirst ganz selten mal den perfekten Einstiegs- & Ausstiegspunkt finden. Aber das ist auch nicht zwingend wichtig, wichtiger ist, dass man überhaupt einen Ausstiegszeitpunkt findet, während die Märkte ihre Fahrt gen Süden antreten. Was die guten Trader können, ist, dass sie sehr gut Verluste minimieren können, während sie Gewinne laufen lassen. Aber das ist ein Skill, den man sich aneignen muss/kann und den ich leider auch nicht habe^^

Man hatte z.B. in 2018 lange genug Zeit, sein Portfolio zu ordnen und ob man einen Coin, den man günstig gekauft hat, bei €1,00 oder €0,80 verkauft ist "egal", Hauptsache man verkauft und lebt nicht von der Hoffnung. Und das haben in 2018 viele Leute verpasst (nehme mich da nicht aus) und sitzen nun auf heavy bags.

Ich bin ja ein Freund der Salamitaktik. Will heissen, zurückkommend auf die Frage wie man einen Bullenmarkt erkennt, dass man nach vorgegebenen Kriterien sowohl bergauf als auch bergab teilweise verkauft. Man wird so bisschen was liegenlassen, aber sollte doch die meisten Leute outperformen, kann ruhiger schlafen und hat durchschnittlich mehr Ressourcen um am unteren Ende ggf. wieder einzusteigen

Wie du schon merkst, fällt ein Vergleich schwer; das man kann sich drehen und wenden wie es einem gerade passt Buchi's gepostete Grafik zeigt ja auch sehr schön warum, denn man hat hier immer Wellen und je nachdem welches Zeitintervall man zugrunde legt, kommen halt unterschiedliche Ergebnisse raus.

In einem optimalen Szenario reitet man alle diese Wellen nacheinander für maximale Ergebnisse, aber a) ist das Timing extrem schwierig und b) macht einem eine gewünschte Steuervermeidung oftmals auch einen Strich durch die Rechnung. Und ich würde auch nicht unbedingt darauf vertrauen, dass sich diese Marktzyklen wiederholen. Diese Märkte sind immer noch sehr jung/unperfekt und erfinden sich daher auch oft neu innerhalb kurzer Zeit, was auch durch neue Entwicklungen (DeFi) befeuert wird. Ob das jetzt Sinn macht oder nicht.

Letztendlich ist es für jeden doch auch eine Risikoabwägung - je höher das Risiko, desto höher der mögliche Gewinn/Verlust, unter Wahl einer angemessenen Einsatzhöhe. Was einen dann wieder zur Diversifizierung kommen lässt, wo BTC der sichere Hafen in einer immer noch höchstvolatilen Umgebung ist. Gefolgt von den großen Altcoins, den mehr oder weniger etablierten Altcoins und den Newcomern. Mit dem richtigen Mix, sollte man hier dann auf einen guten Mittelwert von all deinen Zahlen kommen - in einem Bullenmarkt. Sobald es bergab geht, sollte man schon schauen, sein Portfolio wieder auszumisten und die Krötenwanderung Richtung BTC zu starten.

The US is out as well after reporting 18 Covid cases and will be replaced by Switzerland. Cape Verde is battling some outbreak also, but so far it looks like they are going to play, though they are still in Portugal as of now. They will play Hungary on Friday, HC-14.5 looks like a good bet under these circumstances. Brazil was reporting cases too, but mostly staff.

This is already a big mess before the start Probably not about the strongest team, but who has the fewest problems with this virus.

This is also the reason, why I went with Frankfurt X2 today in cup match. Frankfurt is really hard to beat and Leverkusen is in a bit of a slump, while Frankfurt is going in the opposite direction with 3 wins in a row; amongst those the win against Leverkusen just 10 days ago. Odds around @2 look good, although Frankfurt will miss Kostic what I don't necessarily like, since he is very important for them. But Leverkusen misses a few players as well and they look gassed overall. Could be a draw after 90min.

Lucius already opened a thread some days ago : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5308313

Imagine a knife manufacturing company - would you call them criminals, just because some lunatics don't use them in the way they are supposed to be used ? People get harmed and killed all over the place by them and I don't see anyone calling such companies out, for allowing and even faciliating criminal activities being done with their product. 

Remember Charlottesville ? Go blame Dodge for enabling such a criminal act, while millions over millions use their Dodge in a proper way.

People will always mis-use all kind of goods and services, but it doesn't make the manufacturer/operator and people working for these criminals. If you go that route, you can shut down the whole internet - and we are all part of it - because it's used for extensive criminal activities. You can basically shut down the whole world then. And each and everyone of us is guilty then, even you @Ralph Little.

Well, this was a bit boring overall I think with Seattle not showing up, Washington/Chicago being too poor and Titans just playing for one quarter. Bills vs Colts was a good game and Buffalo got a bit lucky imo. Browns was fun to watch, lol, but when a game is decided after 13 minutes, thats pretty meh for a playoff game.

The Rams surprised me the most, it's a miracle how Goff can be so good just two weeks after having surgery on his thumb. Wolford getting injured early was probably the best that could happen to them.

Here are the odds and lines for the next round:


Source: https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/american-football

These matchups promise some more drama and at first glance I like the Ravens ML as well as the over there. Green Bay looks a bit too low, if the Rams can continue what they started at Seattle, but that is a big if. And Browns HC or even ML is too high; KC isn't that good this season and they have won their last seven games by not more than 6pts and with only ~3.85pts on average.

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And for all those football junkies out there, don't forget that there is the College final today The over/under is at a whopping 75

I didn't plan to reset anything because all-time is all-time^^ and the other table basically gets reset with every new MM and people can join (and leave) freely. But your post inspired me to actually have a seperate table for 2021, while keeping the all-time table, which I will then post only from time to time. And here it is:



And while looking at this, considering the fact Steve and his boss like what we are doing here and have been throwing in and offering some extra prizes for us in the past, I thought that we could maybe have some small quarterly rewards for a) most fame points and/or b) best average (elgible users must have joined like 80% of the time), which SB could maybe maybe just maybe sponsor

Now I don't know for how long SB plans to keep going with the MM, but I think it would be fun to have some kind of long-ish-term side competitions.

What is everyone thinking about this ?

Here are the results:



This won't be enough for a prize for our 3 leaders unfortunately, but you will get 33.33 fame points each of course^^

If we assume Atletico and Southampton would have won their matches, our average would have been 7.95 which is quite good then. A special mention goes out to @buwaytress who opposed Flamengo, would have been fun, if you won the MM with going against Flamengo in last game The good news is: Flamengo doesn't play next weekend.

All-time stats:



Trofo takes his sixth win overall and moves up to #2 in fame points after a drought of 13 weeks.
entebah scores his first win after 5 participations in total and with an average of 8.2 over these.

Our host rdbase had a new worst performance this week, although this should be with an asterisk due to the two postponed games
buwaytress is waiting to add to his fame points since September 5th 2020, which is the longest streak currently. 

See you next week

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Thank you

Nice thread Though I don't follow Handball in general very much, the WC/EC/Olympics are always nice to check out and by watching the games you get a good impression pretty fast and can find some good bets without being an expert.

Some bad news were already published in December, when some core pieces of the german NT cancelled their participation due to safety concerns. There were some discussions about it, since these players did play in Bundesliga/CL all the time and now all of sudden, they consider the WC with a quite good hygiene concept unsafe, but anyway.

The missing players will be Hendrik Pekeler, Patrick Wiencek, Steffen Weinhold (all THW Kiel) and Finn Lemke (MT Melsungen). This is a big blow for Germany, since the guys from Kiel have been the defensive heart and soul and it will be very hard to replace this well working block in the middle of the defense. So don't expect a lot from Germany, betting on overs could maybe be a good option.

Here are the outright odds taken from William Hill:


Source: https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/handball

Odds are poor for Stuttgart imo. They are the better side, but not as much as the odds suggest and after their recent little negative run in Bundesliga (against good teams tbf), they have something to think about and might not be as confident as they were earlier this season. Augsburg will miss Gouweleeuw, which is a bit meh, but otherwise they are pretty healthy - as is Stuttgart.
These teams have played seven times in Bundesliga @Augsburg and the Bavarians are leading the H2H 5-0-2. And they had some success in recent years playing at Stuttgart as well; one should not forget that this is a derby afterall.

For me this has a very draw-ish tendency with good value on Augsburg winning this in the end, if there is a winner. So I went with Augsburg 1X around @2.00.

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For the second game today, there is probably some value on Bielefeld. They are close in a lot of games, but are just scoring too few goals. Hertha is a bit hot and cold all the time and you never know which team will show up. This could well end in a 0-0/1-1, if Bielefeld scores the lead they might even win this, since defensively they are stilll doing quite well.

10/15 games "decided" and we have a big armada of 10 people in the lead:



The sportsbet leaderboard shows 11 guys with 5 correct picks and ManU shouldn't be included yet, so lots of them will have 6 correct most likely.

Identical remaining picks from the 5 correct picks guys:

Trofo & entebah
jeremypwr & LFC_Bitcoin & Woohler

leea-1334 has two quite unique picks for the five remaining games, if you hit the X's for Napoli and Ajax, you might jump to the top of the leaderboard.

My bet won and I can confirm that I received my winnings shortly after the game had finished. Due to low-ish stakes and odds I actually "lost" a good part of the money via tx fees again as described above, so think twice and do your calculations beforehand.

(This does not mean that Betraft is legit - only time will tell - judge/try yourself and make your own experiences)

The game went to extra-time, so it was a draw after 90min. All football bets in bookmakers are for 90min (plus injury time^^) only, unless otherwise stated.

The odds for the Seahawks went up throughout the week, but are coming down a bit now and I placed a bet on them ML @1.60 (as well). The 4 main reasons:

1) The SEA defense has improved so much over the course of the season, they have just allowed 14pts on average in the last games. It wasn't some high powered offenses, but they still found some groove and momentum.
2) I guess Goff will start, but he can't be at 100% with his thumb. The market just seems to wait for the announcement of Goff starting to pound the Rams, but I don't think this is smart.
3) The Seahawks are super healthy just at the right time:


Source: https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1346159885881229312

4) Despite missing their 12th man, Seahawks have a very good home record going 7-1 and only losing to the mighty Giants in a very weird game; this includes a 20-9 win against the Rams. The Rams had an average 4-4 away record this season.

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It looks like Heinicke might (have to) start, since Smith is still dealing with this calf injury. Even if Smith starts, it's not safe to assume he will go all 4 quarters, so I wouldn't recommend to put any bet on WFT. Defensively they should be fine, but you can't shut down TB completely, so you need at least a few points to cover the HC, let alone win this thing.

Yes, already placed the bet:



If Hoffenheim scores the lead and Schalke looks not totally lost, then I might add 1X inplay for the same odds.

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Hehe, this is super tempting. Their schedule is not super easy in the next games though:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/team/schalke/0Ija0Ej9/fixtures/

You could succeed with the home game against Cologne or away at Bremen. If not, you might have to wait until the Mainz game and that is a lot of money lost until then But in the end, if they want to avoid relegation, they have to get 3 points against a bigger team at some point. Maybe against poor Bayern 8-0......

I think it's the latter. The little rest is not the problem physically though, because you can expect a pro athlete to compete twice a week at a non-regressing level despite the travelling etc; see the schedules of NBA/NHL, tennis players. What is missing is the mental rest, which is often underestimated in the public perception.

Bayern and most of their players have won everything there is in the world of football in the last years and Liverpool the same in a shorter period of time. After such huge success it's hard to find the same motivation again - even with a break. And if you keep on playing and playing without having the possiblity to mentally digest everything properly, this will result in being not up to things mentally. You will get a bit sloppy, you think things will continue like this forever, you think you can get away with 95% of effort etc.
It's just a normal human process and there are few players in the world, who always find the same desire and motivation every following season after having accomplished so much. CR7 is such a player for example.

Du brauchst doch im Prinzip gar nichts nachweisen, da deine Coins steuerfrei sind, also brauchst du sie auch nirgendwo angeben. Aber wie oben geschrieben, würde ich deiner Bank Bescheid sagen, dass du einen größeren Zahlungseingang erwartest. Und dann kannst du die auch gleich nochmal fragen, wie das mit der Überweisung auf dein türkisches Girokonto am reibungslosesten abläuft.

Falls das FA dann doch mal nachfragt, dann gab es hier unterschiedliche Meldungen, ob ein Blockchain-Nachweis reicht. Das hängt von deinem FA ab.

Despite the sloppy start and lots of negative comments, I like the approach, the responsiveness of @betraft and also the design of the page - I like clean and lean more than lots of bling-bling in a betting site. I want to bet there and see the odds and matches; if I want a nice looking page, I can go to some fashion site.
Navigating is a bit weary though, since there are no under-menus for example for soccer and a lot of scrolling or ctrl+f is needed to get to the game you are looking for. This is maybe something you want to improve in the future.

I don't know, if this is legit, but I would recommend to try with small amounts first. But not too small, because the withdrawal tx fee might eat up all your winnings and even parts of your deposit, if you play low odds with small stakes.
And make sure, if the odds you are getting, are better than elsewhere taking the tx fees into consideration, because you pay them twice yourself for each bet you make. So @2.00 is actually net lower and the vig is already at ~7% by default.

I placed a little bet and will report back, if it wins