🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[wheelz1200]

It was quite apparent the Eagles could have won that game, but chose not to. The reason is...  debatable.

I think it's ok what the Eagles did, teams have done it before, just a bit less obvious For me there was never a doubt the WFT would get the W, there was no reason for PHI to win. And this

(...) maybe the NFL should have both NFC East games played at the same time, spare us the 4th q farce.

wouldn't have changed anything, just that it wouldn't have been in the spotlight And I am not even mad at the Eagles, because a) it saves the Giants from embarrasing themselves and b) all in all Washington was the best of 4 poor teams in NFC East, so they deserve to be in the PO (by rule^^).

The odds for the Bears seem rather high to me, maybe a dark horse in NFC.

Saints tb Bears is the safest thing for me, despite the Bears only losing in OT in regular season to them. But winning @Saints is very hard and Chicago hasn't beaten any good team away all season long. But you never know, maybe they will go on a run, we have seen it before


For the record:

Cardinals over 7.5
Bills over 9
Carolina under 5.5
Raiders over 7.5
Vikings over 9
Patriots under 9
Giants over 6 PUSH

Some close ones, but 5-1-1 in the end


The Top10 for the draft looks like this now:

Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys

The bolded teams will or might want to draft a QB, so this could get interesting. The free agent market is thin this year, with the biggest names being Prescott, Rivers, Trubisky, Winston, Fitzpatrick, Brissett.

You can throw the Broncos at 9 in there too.  Drew lock has not shown he is a franchise quarterback and Elway has agreed to let go of player management and hire a gm.  Unless you have a star already every gm usually wants to draft their own guy since their jobs depends on wins and losses.  They never want to inherite a team that will get them fired.  Expect the Broncos to have a decent amount of turnover.

[tyKiwanuka]

You can throw the Broncos at 9 in there too.

Yes, could be, although I would think Elway will still have some say. Lock is still a bit of a rookie after having spent quite some time on IR in 2019. His stats for 2020 don't look super appealing, but I kind of like what I saw from him considering he doesn't have a very WR crew around him. It's too early to give up on him yet if you ask me, but if the Broncos are very desperate and the GM wants to build a team from scratch, you could add them to the list, yes.

The team that is probably in most dire need of a QB sits at #15 actually - the Patriots. And believe it or not, for my liking NE did quite good this season for all the players they were missing and having a washed up Newton at QB. Getting some of these players back plus a proper QB, could make them contenders again. Don't see them trading up into Top10, because it will be poor value for guys like Wilson/Jones and this is not very BB like. But I would love to see, what they could do with for example Winston.

[mrob82]

Any thoughts on what the Niners are going to do at QB?  I mean, Jimmy G is well above average when he can stay on the field - but that's the problem, who knows if he can complete a full season - odds are a big no.  Are they going to go after Stafford, Ryan, or Wentz.  Or maybe they will find a trade partner in the draft to move up.  Should make the first part of the draft fairly interesting.

[suchmoon]

Cleveland Browns left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and wide receiver Rashard Higgins were both cited for drag racing Tuesday morning.

[...]

On Tuesday evening, Higgins posted on Twitter that his "foot slipped," in regard to the drag racing citation, before deleting the tweet. He also posted he "was tryna get away from Covid," before deleting that tweet, as well.

Should have worn those spiky cleats.

[South Park]

Any thoughts on what the Niners are going to do at QB?  I mean, Jimmy G is well above average when he can stay on the field - but that's the problem, who knows if he can complete a full season - odds are a big no.  Are they going to go after Stafford, Ryan, or Wentz.  Or maybe they will find a trade partner in the draft to move up.  Should make the first part of the draft fairly interesting.

There are rumours Kyle Shanahan may like to reunite with Matt Ryan as he likes the way he throws the football way more than what he has in Garoppolo however if a trade is made the cap hit will be important due to the way his contract is structured, but taking into account the Falcons fired their Coach and GM during the middle of the season and the fact they have the fourth pick on the draft this could be the perfect opportunity for them to start over as it is obvious they have not recovered from the SB loss against the Patriots and it could benefit everyone to part ways.

If this were to happen then the Falcons will need to pick a QB with that fourth pick and everything will depend on what the Jets do with their pick, if they are picking a QB then Fields will most likely be out of reach and maybe they will have to settle by picking Zach Wilson which was above Fields in the eyes of some experts before the College Semifinals.

But this leaves the question, what to do with Garoppolo? And I can tell you the Patriots will be happy to have him back as his style of play matches very well with the old Patriots offence.

Trevor Lawrence has finally declared for the 2021 draft.
Source: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/clemson-star-qb-trevor-lawrence-the-presumptive-no-1-pick-declares-for-2021-nfl-draft/

[DireWolfM14]

Any thoughts on what the Niners are going to do at QB?  I mean, Jimmy G is well above average when he can stay on the field - but that's the problem, who knows if he can complete a full season - odds are a big no.  Are they going to go after Stafford, Ryan, or Wentz.  Or maybe they will find a trade partner in the draft to move up.  Should make the first part of the draft fairly interesting.

I like Garoppolo also, and I wish he could stay healthy.  If I'm not mistaken he started all 19 games last season, that was a good streak.  I think the plan all along was to restructure his contract after two years, and give it that time to really evaluate his performance.  In my opinion; I don't think that Shanahan is sold on G-Money.  If he won't restructure then I don't think they can afford to keep him.  They structured his deal in a way that gives them the option of releasing him and taking a very small hit to the salary cap.  They have a lot of UFAs this offseason, and many are worth keeping.  I think Kittle might be among them.  

Safford, Ryan, Wentz?  

None of them sounds appealing, I'd try to resign Garoppolo over that bunch.  Wentz could possibly succeed in customized Shanahan system, and we know Ryan can, but ugh!  So bleak.  And I seriously doubt the Niners will draft a quarterback in the first round, but they should definitely be looking for the next franchise QB.  In 2018 Shanahan may have had hopes of reuniting with Kirk Cousins in 2021, but Kirk has signed an extension with the Vikings.  He's holding pat in Minnesota until 2023.

[bbc.reporter]

Here are the early odds:


Source: https://www.oddsportal.com/american-football/usa/nfl/

At first glance and with covid issues probably still to come, this looks all ok-ish to me. Bills are a bit low, but just a bit, maybe weather is already factored in. Though I kind of like the Titans I don't think they will look particularly good against the Ravens with the porous defense they have, so 1.5+ looks good here and I also like the over; this can go well into the 60's.

I have only begun looking at this.

Titans without handicap. Regular season Lamar is different from playoffs Lamar hehe. He was my MVP for last year, however, he has shown to be very useless during the playoffs.

Also, there is playoffs Henry who is very much different from regular season Henry hehe.

[wheelz1200]

I love the steelers money line now.  Looks like Vernon is now out as well.  He was a big part of the line and led the league in qb pressures.  This will be huge since pitt is very pass heavy.  Gimme pitt.  Looking at the other games right now.  Steering towards Buffalo as well.  One game I'm not touching is the titan Baltimore game.  Rematch from last year and see them as dead even.

[tyKiwanuka]

Also, there is playoffs Henry who is very much different from regular season Henry hehe.

Hehe, if Henry will be even better in POs, then he has to rush for like 300yds. He already had one hell of a regular season and with 81yds more, he would have had the record for single season rushing yards, which is held by Dickerson with 2,105yds. Lets see, I like him, so would enjoy if he manages to find a even higher gear in POs

One game I'm not touching is the titan Baltimore game.  Rematch from last year and see them as dead even.

If you see this as 50/50, then you should definitely bet on the Titans, because it's good value. These two also played in November and Titans won in OT @Ravens with Lamar playing, so I can see why people like the Titans here - and odds for Ravens have gone up a bit - but I still see the Ravens winning this. TEN is not in that good form like last year and their defense is really very suspect.

Stake has a great NFL promo and you can bet there with some insurance, i.e. if Titans lead after Q3 and lose the game, you will still get paid out (up to $100). This promo is for all NFL games in PO and very nice imo: https://promotions.stake.com/nfl-promo/

[suchmoon]

I gave up. I can't find any appealing underdogs in this first round.

Buccaneers -3.5
Bills -3.5
Ravens ML
Steelers ML
Seahawks -2.5
Saints -5.5

And I placed bets on Ravens vs Bucs in SB, and Buckeyes ML just because.

[bbc.reporter]

I am looking at the teams records and statistics. Something in me is saying that all the favorites might not cover the spread except for the Steelers. This is the playoffs with no fans. This might be more favorable for the underdogs.

Colts +6.5, sorry Josh Allen.
Redskins +8.5, should only be 6.5?
Titans moneyline and over rush yards for King Henry.

[South Park]

Also, there is playoffs Henry who is very much different from regular season Henry hehe.

Hehe, if Henry will be even better in POs, then he has to rush for like 300yds. He already had one hell of a regular season and with 81yds more, he would have had the record for single season rushing yards, which is held by Dickerson with 2,105yds. Lets see, I like him, so would enjoy if he manages to find a even higher gear in POs

That is a scary thought, Henry had an MVP level season if he is capable on improving upon his own performance then the Ravens are in trouble, however during the regular season when the Titans and the Ravens played each other Henry ran for 133 yards with 1 TD in 28 attempts, so he had a good performance but not anything close to what we know he can pull off when he is inspired.


This Super Wild Card Weekend is crazy I am getting worried that I will have to pull off a Homer Simpson if I want to watch the 3 games 2 days in a row.

Source: https://tenor.com/view/botana-the-simpsons-homer-couch-potato-movie-marathon-gif-5945711

[nfl nerd]

Bills ml is the bet of the weekend, imho.  I may be new, but I know my nfl.

[nutildah]

Anything can happen of course but these next 6 games seem like some pretty easy picks, as far as ML is concerned. Here's who I have to win for each game:

Bills
Seahawks
Buccaneers
Ravens
Saints
Steelers

Both Seattle and Baltimore are -3 right now, so those are the closeIst games. I think an interesting 4-game parlay would be the remaining teams all at ML.

Right now, taking those 4 games as a parlay has a payout of about 2.9x.

Taking all 6 games has a payout of about 7.4x.

I'm gonna put 50% on the 4-game and 50% on the 6-game, so even if just 4 wins I'll still be up overall.

[bbc.reporter]

Also, there is playoffs Henry who is very much different from regular season Henry hehe.

Hehe, if Henry will be even better in POs, then he has to rush for like 300yds. He already had one hell of a regular season and with 81yds more, he would have had the record for single season rushing yards, which is held by Dickerson with 2,105yds. Lets see, I like him, so would enjoy if he manages to find a even higher gear in POs

That is a scary thought, Henry had an MVP level season if he is capable on improving upon his own performance then the Ravens are in trouble, however during the regular season when the Titans and the Ravens played each other Henry ran for 133 yards with 1 TD in 28 attempts, so he had a good performance but not anything close to what we know he can pull off when he is inspired.


This Super Wild Card Weekend is crazy I am getting worried that I will have to pull off a Homer Simpson if I want to watch the 3 games 2 days in a row.

Source: https://tenor.com/view/botana-the-simpsons-homer-couch-potato-movie-marathon-gif-5945711

Hehe I only care about the games of the Bills and the Colts, and the Titans and the Ravens. I do not understand why the best games for the wildcard are the first to play for each day.

[suchmoon]

Josh Allen's ability to throw on the run is frightening unless you're a Bills fan.

[tyKiwanuka]

The odds for the Seahawks went up throughout the week, but are coming down a bit now and I placed a bet on them ML @1.60 (as well). The 4 main reasons:

1) The SEA defense has improved so much over the course of the season, they have just allowed 14pts on average in the last games. It wasn't some high powered offenses, but they still found some groove and momentum.
2) I guess Goff will start, but he can't be at 100% with his thumb. The market just seems to wait for the announcement of Goff starting to pound the Rams, but I don't think this is smart.
3) The Seahawks are super healthy just at the right time:


Source: https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1346159885881229312

4) Despite missing their 12th man, Seahawks have a very good home record going 7-1 and only losing to the mighty Giants in a very weird game; this includes a 20-9 win against the Rams. The Rams had an average 4-4 away record this season.

Redskins +8.5, should only be 6.5?

It looks like Heinicke might (have to) start, since Smith is still dealing with this calf injury. Even if Smith starts, it's not safe to assume he will go all 4 quarters, so I wouldn't recommend to put any bet on WFT. Defensively they should be fine, but you can't shut down TB completely, so you need at least a few points to cover the HC, let alone win this thing.

[DireWolfM14]

This Super Wild Card Weekend is crazy I am getting worried that I will have to pull off a Homer Simpson if I want to watch the 3 games 2 days in a row.

Lol, I think the NFL is banking on it.  Their revenues have been steadily declining over the last few years, and I'm sure the empty stadiums of 2020 only made things worse.  The NFL is set to vote on a 17-game schedule this offseason, and it looks like a shoe-in.  They're trying hard to combat what appears to be a lack of interest among younger Americans.

Josh Allen's ability to throw on the run is frightening unless you're a Bills fan.

Seems like he's as natural at it as Patrick Mahomes.  I remember when mobile quarterbacks, rolling to the right (or left if he wore #8) were the norm in the NFL.  Then Belichick came on the seen with Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady and everything changed.  Now all that's old is new again.

Philip Rivers doesn't seem to care though.

[suchmoon]

Bills -3.5

I'm off to a good start LOL

Now I gotta root for seachickens ugh

[nutildah]

Bills -3.5

I'm off to a good start LOL

Now I gotta root for seachickens ugh

It was a bit too close for comfort for me, but what a game! It was a nailbiter. And it was supposed to be an easy one on my path to a 4- and 6-leg parlay. This next one is only a must-win for half my bet... I just don't see the Rams winning here given their QB situation. Sad to root against "my team" for money but what are you gonna do.

The odds for the Seahawks went up throughout the week, but are coming down a bit now and I placed a bet on them ML @1.60 (as well).

That's comforting.