Wow, that was quick. I guess we've reached google stability.

That isn't how is works. Even without the reward, miners will be doing it for the transaction fees. All transaction have to be stuck in a block, even after the reward is gone. The miners will no longer be mining for a pre-set reward, but for the transaction fees of the transaction in the block they make. Even now they get that reward, but it is usually pretty small compared to the 50 BTC reward. Although I have seen at least one block with 3 BTC of fees in it.

The upshot is that mining must continue as long as bitcoin lives.

I see. Currently, the 0 fee one and the fee one would probably both be in the same block (except that they can't be). Nowadays there isn't usually a hold up on transaction free transfers. In the future, when there is a delay for free transfers then yes, this type of attack might increase your chances for success, some, depending on whether miners decide to take the transaction with the fee even though they have seen a different one. Currently, I don't think any miner does that, they just reject the second one they see, fee or not.

On top of that, anyone connected to the network will be able to quickly see that a double spend has occurred, even before the transaction gets put in a block. Everyone in the network has access to the queued transactions, they are just unconfirmed. It is easy to see that the network has rejected the earlier transaction because of a double spend. It only takes seconds. A real attack would take a very elaborate plan and need control of much of the network. It just doesn't make sense for a burger, or anything else that someone wouldn't wait for real confirmation.

Yes, that is a possibility. But since the network is open, you can always assume that someone will be mining and taking free transaction, for the good of the network. It might take a while to get confirmed, but it'll go through sooner or later. And if transaction fees were really getting high, that is just incentive for more miners to get involved. If people are leaving the bitcoin network because of high fees, then miners have a reason to try accepting more low fees, to keep the network alive. It should all work itself out. The future structure of fees isn't yet completely clear, and everything is still tweak-able.

For those interested, the most recent google trend numbers are:

July 1st - 36
July 2nd - 38
July 3rd - 38.

Using the chodpaba method, that gives a price of $10.82. But as chodpaba pointed out, there is variance +- 100%, so don't go too crazy.

Thank you Chodpaba, an excellent analysis, as always. Very, very informative. I am actually surprised by the strength of the correlation, even though I pointed it out in the first place.

Then I doubt they feel it necessary to set up any other on death system.

You can't send the money anywhere until it is confirmed in 6 blocks, which is statistically suppose to take an hour.

Or you could just put it in your will... like most people do with things they plan on passing on after death.

That is because it doesn't delete your wallet, that would destroy all the money in it if you didn't have a backup. Simple move the wallet and it should generate a new one.

It would be ahead/behind if the google trend line only represented the first time a user looked up bitcoins. In reality, someone thinking about investing in bitcoins is probably making lots of bitcoin related searches throughout the whole process. And people who own bitcoins probably search most of all. In the end, the "first search" that helps a user find out about bitcoins for the first time is probably only a small portion of the entire search volume.

I think it would find support around $10. There is a lot of psychological support for any single digit number. If $10 breaks, I think it is a free fall. maybe all the way < $5.

On the other hand, I think it would only take a small rally to see $17 again.

It is very possible that bitcoin doesn't take off, especially if a competing system dominates the market. An investment in bitcoins should be considered speculative. Can you elaborate on the Japanese? How does such a system function? Is it easy to start taking payments if you are just a regular joe? Could two friends easily send money to each other? And does it require the sender to reveal sensitive information (like a cc number) that you wouldn't give to a stranger? Is there any degree of anonymity to the system? These are all thing bitcoin has going for it that I have not yet seen replicated.

Luckily, I just posted a long piece about just that. Have a look:

Bitcoin _is_ more convenient
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26103.0

I've been a business owner for more than 10 years. I know there is a lot of argument on this issue, but the bottom line is that bitcoin is more convenient to use, at least from a small business owner's perspective.

When I started, I only accepted cash and checks. Cash was alright, but not many people went for that option. And checks cost me literally thousands of dollars in bounces and fraudulent charge backs.

When I first started taking credit cards, I did it through paypal virtual terminal. First I had to "prove" to them that I was a legitimate business, which required me jumping through a bunch of hoops. Once I was in the system I always had to have secure internet access and take a ton of information from the customer, including billing address and the code on the back of the card. The system often gave me cryptic error codes. The most inconvenient part is that it required the customer to trust me completely with all their sensitive information. This cost me $30 a month, 4% of each charge, and 30% had to stay in escrow for three months!

I later moved to a traditional phone line swipe system. This cost me $210 a month (including the extra phone line), and $0.50 + 1.8% for each transaction. As well as the card swiping equipment (about $300). The downside was that I could only do it at my studio, not on the road. Trying to record information to charge later led to far too many "failed" charges, much worse than when I accepted checks.

Bitcoin's costs are similar, when you account for all the various fees and risks you take (minimized by having moving prices and always selling immediately). But the simple fact of the matter is that there is no way on earth I could arrange for my fellow forum members to give me small donations in a simple, quick, and safe way using cash, checks or credit/debit. With bitcoins I can. The is a wholly new and unique feature of bitcoins. It can be easily integrated into anything, and the sender is always 100% safe. They never have to expose sensitive information. Although, it is a little easier to be scammed, as the sender has no chargeback options.

The upshot here, is that there is value in bitcoin that is not reproduced elsewhere. As a small businessman, I could have only wished for something as easy and in my control as bitcoins to have been around when I started. The main problem now is adoption. Once bitcoins start picking up traction, I could see businesses everywhere using it.

The current impracticality of actually walking into a location and transferring bitcoin will probably soon be solved by the market -- most likely by mobile apps and the great idea of firstbits. I really can imagine a future within 10 years where I can walk into a fast food joint and use my phone to pay with bitcoins. It isn't a 100% thing, but to me, it seems plausible. It really is a revolutionary idea that may change the world. But even if bitcoins don't "change the face of currency", and even if no one ever tries to accept bitcoins face to face where traditional currency methods are used, being adopted for even a small percentage of online micro-purchases would still give bitcoins tremendous value.

When I think of switch to a mircobitcoin or what-have-you as the default denomination, I would call it "shifting the decimal place". When I call it that, it is simply a figure of speech as bitcoins are still bitcoins.

This is the dream that many bears, myself included, hope for. But you have to ask yourself, how likely do you think that scenario is?

When I think about the many things that can go wrong, and the fact that maybe not many people will think this idea is as cool as I do, and I pull out my inner pessimist and make him answer the question, I still feel like there is a 1% chance of bitcoins becoming really, really big. Now the real me, thinks there is closer to a 60% chance. But either way, it is still worth an investment.

Then don't do a wire transfer. Pick one of the many other, cheaper methods. Problem solved.

Man, you talk like an evil mastermind. Remind me not to get on your bad side. I imagine my whole life would slowly deteriorate while you plot diabolically to make it worse and worse.

Then think of bitcoins as a commodity, with the potential to one day become a currency. If you are willing to put your money in a commodity, bitcoins seems a reasonable alternative to put some speculation money in. There is no particular reason to categorize bitcoin as "only" a currency. In many ways it has many traits of a commodity. Namely, a finite amount and a supply/demand dynamic.