does the $129 shipping fee cover shipping the unit(s) safely to Australia?
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You probably know that most of their NRE costs are 3rd party costs, which they have to pay before they will have any ASICs in their hands.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they can only refund customers with money they still have, can't they?
HyperMega; You know any 28NM foundries that let you book space or will even give you a QUOTE on a wafer run before you design is complete and submitted to them? Any idea on the advance notice you need right now to get a 28nm lot done? Money in June to get through vetting process, then they would sign an NDA and start designing, then submittal, then quote, then booking, then wafers, then chips, then..........How many days between June 15 and end of September (math was never my thing)? This could be a record. Except that they were plugged into Orsoc's existing relationships with fabs, not starting from scratch like other companies. So... not. |
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After investing that much money in hardware, I don't see as many people dropping out as you do.
It's not that they drop out immediately necessarily, it's that returns quickly diminish leading to magnifying losses over time, and the secondary effect is that new investment money won't flow into ASIC-producing companies unless the prices of the machines also come down correspondingly--though they can only go down so far until there's really little point on either side. |
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Furthermore, you do realise to continuously double the hash rate, we need to continuously double the network? We are not reaching 3 billion difficulty anytime soon, it's questionable we will reach 1 billion next year. This is something I've realized as well. You need upfront profitability to make new mining gear worth investing in. This will effectively be gone in January, and anyone with a machine will be cemented in their market share for the foreseeable future, either early next year or certainly by late next year. Gen-2 of KNC will be among the last new devices sold until probably 2017 when we can expect the price of bitcoin to possibly jump again due to the reward halving. You look at projections should 10 billion by end of next year--never gonna happen with the price of bitcoin at only $100. Makes no sense from a business / profitability standpoint. Everyone would have to stop mining due to electricity costs! So, it won't happen. In fact, I'd like to see calculators start looking into levelling off their projections to show this fact, as it's now the most important factor in calculating profitability, where difficulty levels off. KNC is going to want to deliver well on gen-1 because gen-2 will be a much cheaper device and they'll need volume. Not only will it be a cheaper device but it will have to be much, much faster and much more efficient. Nothing but custom ASIC is going to make any sense after KNC ships. Everyone with Avalon chip orders right now. Forget it. Get out. Only KNC, Bitfury, and possibly Cointerra if they manage to launch is going to be mining profitably after 1st of the year in terms of selling machines to end-users. |
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Still not a single refund from Avalon.
Well, me, but it would be hard to blame anyone for seriously doubting me at this point :\ I think I may have been the test case. |
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On a serious note though; what's the latest on KNC's progress?
Does the October shipping date seem likely?
We have no reason to believe they won't hit their ship-date at this point. The only evidence we have that they will is their claim that they are on time with everything so far. |
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I don't know how many orders were required to sell out KnC's September batch, but based on October stock, they would appear to have over 1 pentahash for sale.  We've already seen them reset these numbers once--they mean nothing. It's a limitation of the sales software they used. They set them to an arbitrary number then reset them when it wears out or w/e. It useful for companies with existing stock, not those taking orders to build. |
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Since the WSJ, and the other 'press releases' the story has gained some momentum and appeared on other sites, meaning any hoaxster has gone to and is continuing to go to considerable effort to spam.
The WSJ running is what perplexes me, but I can only assume Sunday night limiting means to make phone calls and confirm, but that still would at least mean some googling like have just done. Still it wouldn't be the first time a journalist performs little research and takes Internet gossip as fact. What's even weirder is 'financial news' has clearly been slipped a web domain, so they must have had first hand contact with the hoaxster. First of all, in order to get a story in a traditional newspaper on Monday morning, it needs to be submitted on Sunday night. So it's not at all unusual to see a story go up online the night before it shows up in the paper. They may have been working on it over the weekend, or perhaps longer. It's not at all unusual to see a newspaper article go online in the middle of the night, that's when they're finalized. Fake site, and definitely a fake twitter, someone had a lot of time on their hands, the swipes at KnC meant it was specifically targeted at spreading FUD between them and Avalon. Yifu is probably enjoying the confusion it's causing right now, as last time he was 'woken up in the middle of the night' with FUD being spread he jumped on this forum immediately to put the record straight. Any truth in this would be the worst news possible for centralising Bitcoin. I appreciate the ASIC route has been fraught with scams and greed, but we're finally just on the cusp of having competing choice of real products available and hopefully fair pricing/returns with various options of DIY and/or purpose made units. One entity controlling all the supply would kill mining...
I don't really get how you can say this is a "fake twitter" simply because of some "unprofessional" sounding tweets. People post unprofessional things on their twitter feeds all the time. Just because someone is a rich wallstreet banker doesn't mean they are going act and sound professional all the time. Quite the opposite, in fact. Have you ever read Micheal Lewis' Liars Poker? Wallstreet culture is not very P.C. at all. Anyway, if the story isn't true, that means someone straight up conned the WSJ, feeding the reporters a bunch of fake information. There is no way this is a simply a misunderstanding based on a couple years old article. Right now I'm thinking this was an advanced market manipulator whom managed to trick mainstream press into telling the story he wanted with an eye towards manipulating the price of bitcoin, trying to cause a crash or rise or something. Eyeing the price last days, they largely failed |
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Didn't read the WSJ, but this article said they passed up BFL and KNC. They didn't say why.
But from that pic that was posted with SAM (KNC), Josh (BFL) and todays hero/villain (YIFU), YIFU Looks so dam smug, but i mean smug....like he knows he a bad mofo....bout to collect some of the 200 million headed his way. WOW.
I wonder if Josh and Sam knew of this deal during that pic (i doubt it)?
Notice Yifu isn't smiling.....
Need to see corroboration, that 'deal' simply doesn't make sense. Someone on Reddit said it was an idiot reporter doing a search on 'avalon' and got a hit for $200m for a company with the same name not even connected to bitcoin. It wouldn't make -any- sense to put $200m into bitcoin mining, that's 1/5th the total value of all bitcoin. If you mined all the bitcoin in a year that's $131m. I could see $20m. But $200? And why 20nm? 14 is the next process step, isn't it? What are they gonna do, strike a deal with IBM's fabs? Doubtful. And why announce it at all if true? If you don't need pre-order money your best business move is to take the entire network by absolute surprise by putting say 10000 terahash or w/e of power on the network some random day and freak everyone out and ruin their profitability. Anyway the article is paywalled for me. I'm laying this strictly in the rumor camp for now. |
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but at least I will learn and now I have KNC machines in order Buy a USB Eruptor to practice on then >_> |
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do you [think] it is possible for difficulty to surpass 1 billion this year?
I don't think it's possible, no. The problem with the exponential increases in the calculators' models is that while the diff has been rising exponentially it's doing so with mere linear inputs of money into mining equipment. And that exponential performance gains have come from bringing to bear modern computing technology on the problem, ie: ASICs. Eventually we hit a wall where we've wrung the most efficiency out of existing tech and at that point, everyone's who already hit positive ROI on their equipment will be cemented in place with their existing market-share, because it won't make financial sense for others to jump into the game unless they can produce a far more efficient miner technically--and they won't be able to. We're looking at 1 or two more generations of mining products (barring some major tech advancement in the chip industry like carbon nanotube chips or something), and if the price of bitcoin doesn't rise dramatically again in the next years then that's the state of things, people mining late this year will probably still be mining late next year. The bitcoin community doesn't have exponential money to put into miners. So those calculators are off with their projections by early next year, around June I'd say is where we hit the wall and there won't be anywhere else to go. That will be the new normal, probably around 500 - 750 million difficulty as an offhand guess. |
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But for such a large transaction there will be PayPal limits, which I have to remove first.
Need to research into this.
I had to verify my account for Paypal to let me use a CC to pay for a Jupiter. Wasn't a huge deal. Dunno if that applies in other countries besides US tho. |
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Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.
And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.
So, basically, you're trying to muddy up rational discourse with fallacious nonsense. Got it. It's a basic economic principle, actually. What matters is not what people say they will do, what matters is what they actually do. If you produce a product and ask what price they'd buy at and they say $2, and you say, alright give me the $2 and here you go, and they balk, then they don't really want the product at all, even at $2. |
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Alright, how about we reserve this space for talking KNC. I've heard enough Bitfury and BFL chatter for now, thanks.
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Bitfury will be nailing the coffin shut of both BFL and Avalon, unless Avalon gets their shit together and batches of chips start arriving this coming week. Actually, BFL is already pretty much dead and gone already, and Avalon is really close to finishing up digging their own grave.
I have lots invested in KNC, so here's hoping the technical release they are saying will be out next week is a good one and puts all this FUD to bed.
That came out a few weeks ago, in the form of engineering drawings of the board and the famous thermal photo of the heatsink debate. |
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Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...
Go back and do it again? Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC. You really think Orsoc is going to make rookie mistakes like that, like BFL made? Come on. I have visited the ORSoc website, there are FPGA development board. So it is likely to be trusted. Even ORSoc never make mistake The butterfly did, Unless ORSoc has provided the true module, I still assume the OrSOC and Sam are trying to fool us. Have you read the thread? Orsoc has verified that they are working with KNC to build a miner. Further, Sam built the FPGA miner from scratch in six weeks. That takes engineering chops. They pulled it off. Ask yourself if you'd have any faith at all that BFL could've pulled off a similar feat--I doubt it. In an industry where time is of the essence, BFL decided to make 'cool' looking miners, with bespoke cases and power supplies. Seriously? No one gives a fuck if a miner looks cool--that's not what miners are for. Avalon had it right--ship the thing in a big ugly metal box that gets the job done, doesn't cost a ton, and doesn't result in supply-chain delays! Knc seems to be of the latter sort of businessman--get it freakin' done. If you won't trust KNC until you see a working ASIC come from their shop then you have to accept receiving in late October at best, and roughly half the profit or less, because there will likely be a mad rush of late orders at that point. But KNC will soon cut off orders and begin work on their Gen-2, and if gen-1 is the great on-time success we hope, then gen-2 will have a loooooooooooot of customers. Knc isn't stupid, they know the real money may very well be made in their gen-2 device. And hopefully there will be some perks for people whom believed in them for gen-1. (Anyway it's kinda hard to understand exactly what your point is, but I did my best to respond.) |
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and 3 months ago, KnC was an idea to "make lots of money".
No, three months ago you found out about their plan when they went public. We don't in fact know how long this has been in planning behind the scenes, but probably at least since January, and even more likely into 2012. By the time we heard about it, things were already at a very advanced stage we must assume, for they already by then had a deal with Orsoc, which we heard about almost immediately after, and such deals take time to organize, communicate and get done, and they also had in place their design which was nearly ready to tape out, and they'd already planned their Mars miner which they executed in less than 6 weeks into a running miner, which is fairly impressive. I have to balk at your assertion that 3 months ago KNC was a twinkle in someone's eye. This company has done an unknown amount of planning and work prior to their public debut, and we probably won't hear the retrospective on that until after they ship the first gen and have breathing room to do interviews and throw parties and the like. Read back on when they made the deal with OrSoc. it was AFTER their "poll". Pretty sure it was only -announced- / revealed at that point. So, if the "expert design firm" signed on a couple of months ago, do you still stick by your point of months and months of "advanced, behind the scenes, planning"?
Here's their 2nd post in this thread--they're already referencing having a hardware partner. It was already in place: Sorry to be skeptical, but here we go again
New company springs up
no product or even product specs
shipping some time in the future
join the cue and only pay half price-what a deal
Thanks for your reply. I honestly can’t blame you at all and I think you are quite right. To make people feel better I will try to do my best to answer as many questions as possible. First I will start by listing our negative points and then the points that I believe will help people 1. We have only just opened 2. We have no previous history 3. We are taking your money in Advance So to answer these issues I would like to say the following and please feel free to quote me. 1. Yes we have just sprang up, everyone has to start somewhere, We have been personally mining for a few months and we want to be part of the ASIC wave which I think we can all say is coming in the next few months Avalon have already started and I don’t need to talk about BFL. 2. The hardware development companies we are using (names will become public shortly) have many years of ASIC and FPGA development behind them and we are confident that with their expertise we can produce and deliver when they become public so will there work and you can purchase there designs and see all the publicly available information on them3. Let me be very clear on this one our web shop is not taking payments for ANY products today at all. We will only open up for payments when we have some more significant specs to provide. We have opened up for registration only and so that when we do launch a product we will hopefully have a bit of history so point 1 will become less of an issue. Things that will happen this week We are going through Thawte to get a EV certificate so our website will be https to give you extra confidence. We will be constantly posting on our news pages of the progress we make in the next few weeks, We are holding daily meetings with the partners and getting reports on progress on the development, we are faces with some challenges and some decisions that will be made, We will use the voting section on our site to allow as getting feedback on things like power consumptions requirements and device size. Time is at the essence and we will take feedback and suggestions from anyone in this early stage to actually drive the development with real user requirements ONLY then when we have enough stats and some hard figures will we launch the ability to enter the order queue, so before that day comes I would like to ask all the Secptics out there, to please comment here and reply. The more you ask questions the more I will try to produce something that will enable you to trust us. I understand that this need will disappear after we actually ship and everyone feel free to actually wait to place the order. But the more people that register the more our hardware partners will through resources at it and the faster we can get something that you can actually order and mine with As for names behind the company I can give you two names today Mine is Sam Cole and my college is Andreas Kennemar the company we hold together is called Kennemar & Cole Hense the KNC in the name of KNCminer our other business is an IT consultancy in Sweden we have a site called www.hitta.se you will find us both on there, How can you deny they had a deal in place with Orsoc before they went public with their plan? It's plain that they did. Only later did we find out the name, Orsoc, and then we pestered Orsoc to confirm, they did, put a link up on their site, etc., etc. I dunno if you guys are just tossing FUD or not doing your due diligence but this info's been there from the beginning. |
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