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2041  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: December 27, 2023, 06:28:54 PM
I mean is there any proof that they are actually buying? It will be good to see even some indirect evidence  

I don't mean to evade your question - because I don't know about the actual proof - however, a public company lying in their making those levels of detailed disclosures, would be in pretty deep shit, including the various principle officers may well end up with criminal charges.. and pretty severe penalties... so even though I don't have any problems about being doubtful and/or a skeptic, but certain kinds of proclamations are supposed to be able to rely upon them.. so public statements in official quarterly release documents by companies are the kinds of documents we should be able to mostly rely upon... yeah of course, public companies lie sometimes.. but I doubt that lying is taking place with Saylor/MSTR in regards to these acquisition of BTC kinds of matters..

Even though there are a lot of MSTR/Saylor haters, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners and perhaps some others who would just love these kinds of false claims or fraud to be present in this particular case.. 

To me it seems to me that your own asking of those kinds of questions may well mean that you are part of one of those hater camps or you are reading talking points of some of those hater camps.. even your question is not very fleshed out to show that you have studied into the matter beyond merely asking the seemingly pretty lame question.  Sceptical Chymist?  Is that you?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
2042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: December 27, 2023, 06:03:09 PM
Have running almost one year with my investing bitcoin accumulation but I start around $150 every week and raise $600 in monthly for investing in bitcoin, wish have stable financial and keep consistency investing or accumulation as much possible in bitcoin until several years later.
The ideal time to run a DCA strategy is when an investor has a consistent cash inflow or outflow, and at that point, they can run the strategy for as long as they want, up to several years, with any weekly investment amount.

Without a reliable source of income, I doubt someone would invest in bitcoin on a weekly or monthly basis, much less being consistent over a year, if that were the case.
I have already posted about this before, but it's also very important for those people who are still single, with no/minimal responsibilities in life, to be reminded NOT to take their youth and being single for granted. Take it as an opporutnity to save portions of their salary and make a high-conviction investment/HODL in Bitcoin. They will definitely have higher probability for success because they could continue to HODL through the bear cycles without worrying much about their finances.
That's what I'm doing even if I'm married since I regret for not saving bitcoin before while the price is so cheap and don't want this to happen again. Bitcoin right now had so big potential that's why its really good for us to save some for future. Bitcoin future is so good since it already reach on mainstream so I expect that more adoption will happen on it and this halving event would bring a lot of exposure to bitcoin especially if a lot of people see some outstanding price growth of this coin.

But if they can't afford to buy some amount because they think investing or trading it is more convenient to them then I guess what's more ideal there is to separate some part of their profit intended for long term hodl so that they may have some amount to use in future especially if they aim a huge success in future.

Even though I understand what Wind_FURY is saying, I would not let single versus married versus having other complications (such as a business or unstable/variable income/expenses) in your life deter you from figuring out how to invest into bitcoin, and surely when there are fewer variables, it can be and should be easier to figure out disposable income, but everyone still has similar challenges to figure out disposable income and to figure out the various uncertain aspects that come with more complexities in your finances whether income, expenses or even the influences (behaviors of others) that would cause variance. 

The mere fact of complexities or even low income does not make investing into bitcoin a black and white issue in which you either invest or you do not invest, but instead likely justifies maintaining a more solid emergency fund that might cover larger amounts for more months, and also might justify smaller regular DCA amounts, and then perhaps adding to the DCA amounts in times that discretionary income is greater.   It may even be the case that the people with the most complicated financial/psychological situations need bitcoin more than others, even if it might be more challenging for them to figure out how to accomplish a solid, regular consistent and persistent way of investing into BTC.
2043  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Keystone 3 HW coming soon! on: December 27, 2023, 05:08:34 PM
But Trezor One supports few coins.
I think it supports plenty of what deserves to be supported. There is a lot of garbage that lacks support. It's too bad that you can't use Monero on the Trezor One model. If it wasn't for the hardware limitations, the team would have added it. I think it's a problem of too little RAM.
Solana, Polkadot, Toncoin are not available. But this is not such a problem as Tron support.
https://trezor.io/coins
Their blog talks about ten years of experience, but they cannot solve problems with memory, which is now inexpensive. If you compare the expensive Trezor T with the Keystone 3 Pro, then I don’t understand why the Trezor T costs $180.

I would not claim to know the answer to your questions about cost differentiation, yet so far Trezor has been able to charge premium prices.

Trezor T  does have a higher rating of 4.3 as compared with Keystone's 3.4 here:  https://www.athena-alpha.com/crypto-wallets/ and you can look at methodology here. https://www.athena-alpha.com/crypto-wallets/rating-methodology/

You can compare features here:
https://thebitcoinhole.com/hardware-wallets
(filter by name and just look at those two wallets side by side - and maybe include any other HW that you want to compare the features side by side)
2044  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2023, 04:58:36 AM
[edited out]
OT, I know, sorry for the all-medical post spree...

Thanks for the comments about NAC. Never heard of it prior to OOM mentioning it. Will have to get some. I'm not generally a fan of supplements, but one thing I can say from personal experience is about magnesium. A few months ago I started taking it daily, and I now sleep much better than before. I have vivid, movie-like dreams almost every night, it's pretty amazing. Like, I'm going to bed with an anticipation of the dream I'm going to have. The only supplements I take are magnesium (400 mg/day), zinc (22 mg/day), and vitamin C (1000 mg/day). The cocktail was suggested by a trusted doctor friend. I don't know if it's just the magnesium or the combined effect re. the dreams...

BTW, I was tested today and it turns out I have COVID-19... Already lost sense of smell and partial sense of taste (basically food tastes weird). Fever has completely subsided. Nose still runny (NAC could help here?). Positive line on test was deep red (high viral load). On top of all that, Bitcoin is ant-dipping again. What a great gift for Christmas & the New Year! Counting on the upcoming ETF thing...

Take good care guys. Prep your bodies and your spirits for the upcoming stratospheric pump.  Cheesy
I heard good things about Niacin (and Glutamin), and about 8 months ago, I was trying to stimulate a discussion on the topic by creating a thread, but I did not stimulate too much of such conversation, and I have been taking those as supplements since starting that thread, yet I am not sure if I feel any results from adding those two to my regime.  I do already take vitamin C and I started taking Zinc recently too.. and gosh I hate to admit all of the supplements that I added recently, so it is not really clear if there are abilities to be scientific if too many are added.. and then a kind of wondering whether any of them are helping anything.
Glutamine? It's basically a neurotransmitter...in mono sodium glutamate form (MSG) causing severe headaches in some people, hence the "no MSG" label.
I am open minded re supplements and dabbled in them quite extensively 10 years ago, even found a combo that caused 20 lb weight loss (roughly 10-11%, which was quite a bit in pre-ozempic era) with nary side effects at first, but, say, two years later being on the "regimen", I started to feel that my life 'tonus' is diminished somewhat...it is difficult to pin it down, just feeling constantly a bit tired and less interested in everything, which is not typical for me, maybe, so I dropped the "regimen" and that strange feeling went away shortly thereafter.

I am sure that people have genetic differences and various supplements are more beneficial to some, but not all.
AFAIK, all large scale blinded studies did not show any clear benefit for basically any supplement.
At each individual level, I am sure there are almost miracle cases, but so far there is no science to create a "molecular fit" for a given person.

I try to avoid MSG, but that seems to be a different thing.  >>>>"Monosodium glutamate (MSG) is a flavor enhancer often added to restaurant foods, canned vegetables, soups, deli meats and other foods. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has classified MSG as a food ingredient that's generally recognized as safe."<<<<

Generally speaking glutamine is an amino acid and helps with gut health.

https://www.google.com/search?q=glutamine&oq=glutamine&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORiABDIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIGCAcQRRg9qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

But Glutamine and glutamate do seem to have some kind of a relationship, so I am not going to try to unravel any of that here.. seems to be beyond my depth, but interesting to see that there is some kind of a relationship, and you are not totally off of your rocker, Biodom.  A 2003 article: Glutamine and glutamate--their central role in cell metabolism and function
2045  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: December 27, 2023, 04:40:31 AM
I doubt that being in bitcoin for 4-5 years or more helps you to know better when the BTC price will move, but it helps you to figure out at what prices that you might buy, if you had started to slow down in your BTC accumulation, then you may stop DCA and ONLY accumulate on dips or during BIG dips.. but you are likely mostly informed by a sense of already having more BTC.. and perhaps even getting to a point in which you feel that you have enough BTC relative to other assets that you also have.    Your choices are likely not even going to end up being correct, but you are in a better position to have more options after you spent some time accumulating bitcoin (and also more likely to have your currently held BTC in profits) versus the person who might be in his first year or two of BTC accumulation, but some people still might not end up doing the right thing because they might be trying to keep their average cost per BTC down, and then they end up being too whimpy in their BTC accumulation, merely resting on their having had accumulated BTC at lower prices and at earlier times.  There sometimes can develop feeling of futility if you accumulated 4-5 BTC over the past 4-5 years, but at that same accumulation rate, you may well ONLY be able to accumulate 0.5 to 1 BTC over the next 10 years, so there could be some questions regarding if it is a good idea to continue to accumulate BTC, and no one can really decide for that person who is weighing his own particulars in order to figure out whether 4-5 BTC is enough and how much better would it be to have 5-6 BTC, even if it could take another 5-10 years to accomplish such additional BTC accumulation.
If you are not doing DCA and trying to buy only on Big Dips, then you need to continuously remain in touch with Bitcoin price and try to figure out yourself dips and big dips. The only thing we don't know is that the price we buying is the bottom or just the start of dip. These are things you have to keep in mind if you are not doing DCA.

I am not sure if we can make that general of a statement regarding what a guy should do once he starts to feel that he no longer needs to DCA.. because there can be quite a bit of variance in regards to how much a guy might be cutting out DCA or ONLY doing DCA during certain kinds of BTC price conditions.

Maybe it would be helpful to give a couple of examples?

Hypo 1 (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested into bitcoin for 1-2 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing, so maybe has a $750 average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 300 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he has enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA in the first couple years of investing, and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be either maintaining his stash and/or cashing out some from time to time.

Hypo 2.  (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $250 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 130k into bitcoin and accumulated near 115 BTC, and maybe in recent times (since around late 2020 and early 2021), this person has been starting to feel like he has enough BTC and that he can perhaps start to cut back on his DCA buying of BTC

Hypo 3 (10-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of BTC portfolio), and has been investing $20 to $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe averaged around $60 per week of BTC, invested nearly $32k into BTC and accumulated nearly 28 BTC.  This person still is not quite sure if he has enough BTC, even though he has been consistently investing into bitcoin for the past 10 years.  

And yeah, maybe we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 5 years of investing into BTC.

Hypo 4 (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested into bitcoin for 1-2 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing, so maybe has a $7,000 average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 150 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he is getting close to having enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA in the first couple years of investing, and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be either maintaining his stash and/or cashing out some from time to time.

Hypo 5.  (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $1,000 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 260k into bitcoin and accumulated near 20 BTC, and maybe this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.... but is thinking that he might be getting close to feeling that way in the next year or so.

Hypo 6 (5-year BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of BTC portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $26k into BTC and accumulated nearly 2 BTC.  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date, but he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.

And, part of my point is that the time in which each of these person is going to feel that he has enough BTC is going to differ, and surely there are advantages in regards to having had started accumulated BTC earlier, and it may well be difficult for later comers to catch up.. and even the person with the worst situation (hypo 6) has a pretty decent advantage over a person who is brand new to bitcoin, unless the person comes in and is already able front load the investment and being able to buy a couple of BTC to get caught up to hypo 6.

Edit:  On February 18, 2024 - in this post, I added scenarios for Hypo 7-15 (which largely bring down the timeline with Hypos 7-9 as 2.5 years, Hypos 10-12 1.25 years and Hypos 13-15 newbie status.

If you are not in DCA and have huge cash then buying at one price is also a good option provided you are willing to HODL for a longer duration. Lump sum investment becomes more profitable if you correctly caught the big dips. But again there are trade-offs, in Nov 2018 price of Bitcoin was around 5000$ while in Nov 2021 price of Bitcoin was around 65000$. If you have your Lump sum investment at 5000$ and you are willing to HODL for 4 to 5 years then results will be very much positive.

These are good points.

JayJuanGee is our ChatGPT of Bitcointalk.org  Smiley

I surely have my limits.

JayJuanGee is our ChatGPT of Bitcointalk.org  Smiley
Sincerely speaking it took me almost an hour to read through and analyze all he had said. I have to go back to the previous conversations and comments he quoted for proper understanding so I won't misquote.

I might need to start writing shorter responses, since I am probably repeating myself, anyhow.

And a little advice from me, when you do DCA, you should send your bitcoins to your wallet at least every two accumulation periods. Because currently bitcoin transaction costs are quite high. So to minimize this, it's a good idea to collect bitcoins on the exchange first, and if you have collected a large amount of bitcoins, then send them to your wallet. Moreover, you like to do DCA on bitcoin with small amounts.
Yep.  BTC accumulators should be trying to figure out the size of their UTXOs, so that they are able to have options in the future, especially if there are periods in which the transaction fees might unexpectantly go higher for a certain period of time, and there could even be instances in which they stay high for long periods of time.

If someone is ONLY accumulating $10 per week, then maybe they have to wait several months, even 6-12 months (or even longer) before they send their accumulated BTC holdings to private BTC addresses, and personally I am not trying to encourage holding BTC on exchanges, but it may well be more practical to make sure that a person does not have his BTC in UTXO sizes that become either unspendable or just way too expensive to spend, and even someone with $200 worth of BTC in a UTXO might not want to spend 1/4 or $50 on transaction fees to send it, but if the person has $5k in a UTXO, then spending $50 to send it might be considered reasonable (or acceptable).

I know that some folks had already explained and/or theorized that poor people are disproportionately affected by periods in which the BTC transaction fees are really high and also that BTC transactions seem to be unwarranted for smaller sized transactions, and these also could be purposeful attacks on bitcoin in order to dissuade poor people from getting involved in bitcoin, and that truly could end up working to the disadvantage of poor people who do not figure out ways to accumulate bitcoin without incurring high transaction fees, and so what kinds of transaction options that are available is going to vary from location to location, and not everyone is going to have access to lower fee kinds of options in order to accumulate BTC, which likely does not stop BTC's price from going up, but it does end up scaring (or dissuading) some poorer people from getting involved in bitcoin, even though it would be to their advantage to consistently and persistently accumulate BTC during these times rather than waiting.
Yes, currently Bitcoin transaction fees are still quite expensive. I just checked on Mempool,the lowest fee right now is around $4.52. For investors who like to do DCA with bitcoin with fairly large assets, there will definitely be no problem with these fees. However, for bitcoin investors who have limited capital, the impact will definitely be felt.

I am thinking that part of the solution for the smaller investor would be to leave their BTC on an exchange and with a third party until it reaches a significant enough size, whether that is $200 to $1k would be a discretionary matter, and if he has a lot of UTXOs with small amounts that are $20 to $200, then some of those transactions might be a bit expensive to spend from, in terms of percentages, especially the lower level ones.  It is difficult to give any exact and/or specific answer regarding how small of a UTXO would be acceptable, and if it is at all possible it is probably try to let the smallest of them be in the $500 to $1k arena.. which is currently in the 0.012 to 0.024 (which is 1.2 million to 2.4 million satoshis) arena.

Apart from that, I also have an assumption, if bitcoin transaction costs continue to skyrocket and do not decrease in the next few months, perhaps the image of bitcoin will change slightly among small investors. Because for them (small investors), if for example they paid a transaction fee of $5, maybe they would think twice about investing in bitcoin. Because in some countries $5 is quite valuable, and to get it some people have to work all day. So if, for example, it is true that there is play by several parties or several people, I don't think they have thought carefully about the impact. Because instead of continuing to promote Bitcoin's image with the slogan of cheap transaction fees, they instead make transaction fees expensive (if there is a game at all).

There is also lightning network, and I believe in trying to use somewhat self-custody wallets, such as phoenix, but phoenix has a charge to start a channel that has been between 30k satoshis to 60k satoshis in the last few weeks which is around $13 to $26, and there have been some periods recently in which it was 15k to 25 k to start a channel, which is still $6 to $11... so it would be nice to get back down to those lower costs to start a channel.. even below $5 would be good.. but once the channel is open, then it could be a good place for conducting a lot of transactions for less costs, even though it might be better to charge it up with 1 or 5 million satoshis which is currently $400 to $2k.

However, I also agree with you, that instead of waiting for bitcoin transaction fees to become even cheaper, it is better to continue to set aside cold money to accumulate in bitcoin. Because instead of waiting, it's better to just start and continue (DCA). But on a longer scale in terms of accumulation time. Because maybe all of this happens, (expensive transaction fees) if seen from the positive side it is caused by network congestion. Because maybe the bitcoin halving will be coming soon. Therefore, many people flocked to invest in bitcoin and caused the network to become congested.

But even so, I hope that bitcoin transaction fees can be cheaper as soon as possible.

Yep. It almost is starting to seem like an attack on bitcoin (or an attack on poor and/or regular people to be able to use the bitcoin blockchain for regular transactions), but it is not very easy to figure out who is buying so many dickbutts or whatever it is that the current transactors (fee bidder-uppers) are supposedly so excited about and buying and transacting with the various JPEGS on the bitcoin blockchain.

Their is something I understand for bitcoin purchasing and also bitcoin holding, the most thing  that is very important with bitcoin investment is that it depends on when you will release your bitcoin, but one of the parameters that can lead the buyer or the investors to the profiting aspect of it is through timing before you buy, I have heard many conversations that relates the appropriate time someone should purchase a bitcoin but from my observation I don't think investing in bitcoin have actually period you can invest.

What is most important for bitcoin investment is that Bitcoin investment have to do with research and timing before buying so that you will not experienced any loss, so in actual sense it's cogent to purchase when bitcoin is dip so whenever the market is of positive they will be a profit and something of that kind should happen when you have in mind for one year duration or six months duration of investment

Mostly what keep investors behind of not making profits is that they don't calculate a time and for you to buy at dip that means you have scrutinised the market, and it's a priority of buyer to investigate and examine before buying bitcoin.

I understand that it is easy to get mixed up with the idea of buying on the dip, so then some folks such as you might get caught up on the idea of trading and/or short term periods of getting in and out of bitcoin; however, in this thread, we are not referring to short time periods of trading or getting in and out, but instead ways of accumulating bitcoin, which really it does seem problematic for folks to get caught up on ideas of buying the dip if they may well not really have enough BTC in order to cause that kind of an approach to BTC accumulation to really matter very much -except yeah, the trader thinks about buying on the dip in order to potentially be able to get out, but if you think about your BTC investment in terms of 4-10 years or longer, then you are not necessarily considering trading within the current cycle but holding through more than one cycle.. which likely is going to put you in a better place than any of those folks who are getting in and out of their bitcoin position.. and then run the risk of not accumulating as much bitcoin as you might have been able to and also potentially missing out on the various potential compounding effects of bitcoin investing that more likely come over more than one cycle rather than merely within a possible pump of one cycle.
2046  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2023, 02:45:23 AM
[edited out]
OT, I know, sorry for the all-medical post spree...

Thanks for the comments about NAC. Never heard of it prior to OOM mentioning it. Will have to get some. I'm not generally a fan of supplements, but one thing I can say from personal experience is about magnesium. A few months ago I started taking it daily, and I now sleep much better than before. I have vivid, movie-like dreams almost every night, it's pretty amazing. Like, I'm going to bed with an anticipation of the dream I'm going to have. The only supplements I take are magnesium (400 mg/day), zinc (22 mg/day), and vitamin C (1000 mg/day). The cocktail was suggested by a trusted doctor friend. I don't know if it's just the magnesium or the combined effect re. the dreams...

BTW, I was tested today and it turns out I have COVID-19... Already lost sense of smell and partial sense of taste (basically food tastes weird). Fever has completely subsided. Nose still runny (NAC could help here?). Positive line on test was deep red (high viral load). On top of all that, Bitcoin is ant-dipping again. What a great gift for Christmas & the New Year! Counting on the upcoming ETF thing...

Take good care guys. Prep your bodies and your spirits for the upcoming stratospheric pump.  Cheesy

I heard good things about Niacin (and Glutamin), and about 8 months ago, I was trying to stimulate a discussion on the topic by creating a thread, but I did not stimulate too much of such conversation, and I have been taking those as supplements since starting that thread, yet I am not sure if I feel any results from adding those two to my regime.  I do already take vitamin C and I started taking Zinc recently too.. and gosh I hate to admit all of the supplements that I added recently, so it is not really clear if there are abilities to be scientific if too many are added.. and then a kind of wondering whether any of them are helping anything.
2047  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2023, 12:28:33 AM

Well for me we are gonna see a start of a drip right now, but for a good thing, the Mxgox is starting to make payments to the creditors, so good for them and also for us because we start to expell one X from the equation (the weight of mxgox fund) .  The fact they are paying in FIAT implies we are gonna see some sells to make that happen, so be ready for that.

INFO
It remains to be seen what the mtgox folks are going to do with their coins.  Right now I think I'll probably cash mine out and buy a Tesla Cybertruck with the funds.  I imagine many others will probably feel the same way.  I always considered those coins lost, so having them back will probably result in me cashing out immediately in order to have additional cash.  It wouldn't surprise me if a large majority of those coins are sold for similar reasons.  Whether you stayed in Bitcoin and went on to stack, or you got out of Bitcoin, I'd imagine you'll be happy to get back dollars and not coins.  Everyone's circumstance is of course different, but that's my thinking on it.

Yes.. you seem to continue to presume (merely based on your desire for a cybertruck and a feeling that you deserve some kind of a marshmellow) that other MTGOX claimants are going to have some kind of similar mindset to sell their coins because that is what you have been hearing and feeling since 2015/2016, but that remains a pretty BIG assumption, even though a decent quantity of MTGOX coins are not held by individuals.

As of November there appear to be 141,846 BTC that are still outstanding.  https://protos.com/who-owns-mtgox-claims-to-billions-of-dollars-in-bitcoin/

How many MTGOX coins are held by individuals? 25% of the total?  less than 40k BTC?  The other 100k-ish coins are held by various holding companies?  Maybe?  Maybe those holding companies will sell some or all of their coins.. Maybe?  maybe not?

Edited to flesh out a few of the ideas a wee bit MOAR better
2048  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2023, 08:06:16 PM
Had been going through my old posts for the original but couldn't find it, so admittedly I stopped searching a bit prematurely and asked whether you had better storage management.. Did not expect you to create a brand new one especially during these days. Thank you Homer, best Christmas gift. Exactly as my avatar but more pixels Cool.

At the time I requested the laser eyes because of expecting $100k soon. But then SBF and his cronies ruined the party, back to flippin' burgers it was. But the laser eyes are still focussed today on that magic number (even though it should probably be $125k today at a minimum due to inflation). Involuntary thinking about it for some years I decided I am keeping the laser eyes no matter the price. Bitcoin, with a capital B, is worth focussing on beyond the financial freedom it provides. So no need for a third edition, wearing it until it has holes in it!

I never bought into the lazer eyes meaning focused on $100k, because I hardly could give too many shits about those kinds of short-term and/or seemingly arbitrary price thresholds... .. and so my interpretation of the lazer eyes has been just a means of keeping our eyes on the prize... and many of us likely know what the prize happens to be... even if we might not completely agree upon how much diversification that we might need, if any.

Bought my first bitcoins around Christmas 10 years ago. I have many of you guys to thank for helping me hodl through all this time - sorry for not contributing.

Anyway - Merry Christmas and thanks once again!

/ Longtime lurker
Merry Christmas.
all my friends.

10 years ago I didn't know what is bitcoin, you are maybe a billionaire.

Yes..

When in doubt, assume that Longtime lurker, aka zaap is a billionaire.. perhaps a satoshis billionaire..   It may or may not be true, but probably does not hurt to ask.. in order to test the OpSec of longtime lurker..

[edited out]
Unfortunately not. Just because someone knew about bitcoin 10 years ago does not guarantee that someone was able to acquire enough bitcoins and hold them through all ups and downs. It does require quite huge balls of steel to not sell or be influenced by people around you.

I have more than most people around me, but that is quite easy.
We are still early.

Gosh.  There are a lot of possibilities, there, and yeah in 10 years a lot can happen, including selling too many too soon, or getting distracted by shitcoiner and/or bitcoin naysaying talking points.

There's also some questions of security and/or good practices if you had engaged in any kinds of attempts to experiment and use bitcoin, and I will admit that it took me a bit of time to secure my own bitcoin, even though I had thought that I had some decent security for reasons that I am even a bit too embarrassed to admit, and even now, I know that there are some vulnerabilities in some of my current practices, and there is both reluctance to talk about such things, but also some reluctance to fix some of the vulnerabilities.

There were some transactions that I did recently too, and I was kind of wondering if I did them in a very secure and/or private kind of a way, and I am also having some dilemmas regarding what to tell people who are bitcoin newbies in regards to how to manage some of their coins, and how much obligations do we have to tell people things that we feel that we know, but then they also have obligations to do some of their own research too.

Thanks guys!

OOM, I thought about this too. Symptoms came very quickly, and soon after a couple of dinners with friends, so I also think it probably isn't COVID. I had an old COVID test kit at home, which had already expired (about 1 year past expiration). I did it nonetheless, and it came out negative.

Quite harsh indeed, high fever, shivers, cycling on/off between painkillers. Came in the most unfortunate of times...  Sad
Sounds like classic flu, yep. Shit can be tedious, but you can speed recovery up with NAC (2x500mg/d) and Ascorbic Acid (Vitamin C, works as NAC metabolism catalyzer).
I gave my last capsules of NAC to a friend of my father in law (60+ yo) after a two week flu episode, which had a holiday booked nine days later. He fully recovered before packing his suitcase. I only had NAC/AA once, after Covid (Omicron B1) and it helped much with shortbreathedness. Athletes are using it to increase O2 absorption of the lungs before training for events. One can take it for a month safely, but i never read of problems from those who took it longer.

EDIT: Sorry, forgot why i came online today  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Merry Christmas!
(delayed, because of christmas eve offline challenge in my family)
Thanks for the comments, I appreciate it. Never heard of NAC, had to Google it, interesting, will keep that in mind. Was already taking vitamin C (1000 mg) daily as a precaution.

I had kind of glossed over the NAC part too, but then it looks like it could be a good supplement to keep in mind.. .and with supplements, sometimes it can be difficult to know if they are doing anything (such as helping with anything), but I did like the idea of mucus clearing in one of the descriptions that I read.

>>>>"NAC can help prevent side effects caused by drug reactions and toxic chemicals, and helps break down mucus in the body. It seems to have benefits in treating some respiratory conditions, such as bronchitis and COPD."<<<<<
2049  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Finally I did it (I am happy to join). on: December 26, 2023, 06:59:45 PM
I always find wisdom in your writings, no wonder I don't get bored while reading your lengthy posts. I have come arose some person here in this forum that thinks, the main purpose of investment is achieved when you have at least 1full coin, rather than having smaller denominations of that coin. This is the one of the reason we find people investing in altcoins rather than Bitcoin, they think bitcoin investment is already too expensive to accumulate a whole bitcoin. However they are wrong but if accumulating a whole bitcoin is what they want, then they need to become more aggressive than ever, but they should also consider investing based on their financial income and earnings, so that they'll not do more than their capacity, then latter fall back to their investment.

Thanks Mr JayJuanGee , you're #my biggest Inspiration.

Yes.. we should try to be realistic and also appreciate that bitcoin is amongst the best of investments, if not the best investment, that anyone can make, even if they might never be able to achieve a whole bitcoin, which truly is an arbitrary amount.. since the unit amount is fixed and bitcoin is quite valuable, even though many earlier adopters likely did not realize the extent to which seemingly small amounts of bitcoin were going to end up having very large dollar prices.

So yeah, even someone who is new to bitcoin and who has a pretty decent ability to purchase between $100 to $200 per week in bitcoin, may well not even be able to achieve reaching 1 bitcoin in 5 to 10 years, and surely we cannot know for sure what the BTC price will do, but a person investing $100 to $200 per week for 10 years would have had invested $52k to $104k into bitcoin over those 10 years, and I am suspecting that even the person who invested at the higher $200 per week, might not be able to achieve a whole bitcoin in 10 years... and yes, we cannot know for sure, but the mere fact that one might not be able to achieve a whole bitcoin should not take away from the fact that each person who does not have any bitcoin (or has a low amount of bitcoin) should strive to be as aggressive as he is able to be in regards to accumulating bitcoin, but not so aggressive as to over do it or to reck himself because he failed/refused to establish and maintain an emergency fund... and so each person can figure out how much he is able to spend in order to be aggressive without over doing it.  Some people may ONLY be able to do $10 per week or month, and others might be able to invest in lump sums or even averaging out toward being able to invest $1k or more per week.

Imagine you are holding more than how much i gather over the years  Grin well   i must 
admit that I have spent almost every coins I hold when pandemic happens when the world stops
and the work ends for couple of years and i have nothing to spend but my Holdings and that
sadden me though yes I am gathering much now as i started gaining again in the last 6 months.

Anyone investing into bitcoin has to be careful to not overdo it, and to maintain an adequate and sufficient emergency fund as to be able to continue to invest (or buy btc) during bad times, or at least not sell any BTC during such bad times.  Easier said than done, but each of us should be striving to put good and sound practices in place so that we do not have to sell any of our BTC at any time that is not fully and completely of our own choosing.

Better late than never.
0.033 is already a nice amount these days, not everybody has 1400$ in crypto.

You can see that as a start only and hopefully some day you can call yourself the proud own of 100% of a bitcoin.

The road seems to be long but we have time.

What's the long term target? You have anything in mind?
It is not necessary to own a whole bitcoin.

Each person should invest in accordance with his abilities, and sure attempt to get as many bitcoin as you are able to get, up to a point... so OP has gotten to 3.3 million satoshis, and the next goal might be to get to 10 million satoshis, and then the next goal to get to 21 million satoshis, and then maybe to half of a bitcoin, etc etc etc.. and some people might not be able to reach a whole bitcoin, even if they started investing at $100 per week, they would invest $5,200 after a year and $52k after 10 years, and that still might not add up to a whole bitcoin.  Point is to do what you can, and sure be aggressive if you are able to be, and you likely need to aspire in stages and goals that are realistic and reachable.
Newbies should know that there is definitely no competition with the owning of bitcoin as it can only lead to an unhealthy competition with investor's investing beyond what they can afford to lose because they are racing to meet up with someone else they are competing against whereas their income flow is nothing compared to who they might be racing with. AFAIK, the only competition that exists with bitcoin investors is the competition against any potential challenges that may arise along the way to hamper the investor's initial long term investment plan forcing to sell at a loss. That where your competition lies and one potent way to win is having multiple income source stead of a single.

Having an emergency fund that is 3-6 months worth of expenses is also good, and planning cashflow in advance, and surely a person who has a 6 month cash reserve is going to be able to be much more aggressive in his BTC investment approach as compared with someone who has 3 months or less of cash reserves.
2050  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: December 26, 2023, 06:27:37 PM
There is always a possibility for a correction, and that is part of the reason that everyone needs to invest in bitcoin in a way in which he prepares for short-term price moves in either direction, and if he has no bitcoin, then he is not prepared for up.. .so even if the BTC price has already gone up more than 60% in the last 2.5 months, that still does not mean that it might not continue to go up from here.
I think it's not a significant problem. I'm sure with DCA's investment model and the saying we're going to lose money/rugpull will change.

The idea of rug pull is quite different from up and down market movements, even if you might get the sense that sometimes the BTC price is manipulated up or down, there are players who are trying to push the BTC price in one direction or another, yet bitcoin is likely one of the free-est of markets that currently exists, even if there are behaviors to push its price in one direction or another that may or may not end up being successful.

I see that you have been registered on the form since early 2017, so surely you may well have gotten used to various kinds of price moves in BTC, and in your earliest months of BTC accumulation, it may well not really matter so much when you accumulate BTC, just as long as you start to get into bitcoin, then you will at least have somewhat of a stash of BTC so that you are prepared for UP.

At the same time, if you are continuously worried about BTC prices dropping after you bought, then you likely bought too much and you did not save enough cash to be able to continue to buy when the BTC price goes down (that is if it ends up going down from the prices that you had bought).

Long term investing should just mean ONGOINGLY buying BTC until you get to a certain amount of BTC that you feel that you have enough.. and if you are a long term investor into bitcoin, and you have conviction in bitcoin, then the main thing that you should attempt to focus on is to make sure that you are continuing to build your bitcoin stash through ongoing buying, and it is quite difficult to know when the BTC price is going to fall or if it might fall or if it might not even fall, but as an individual investor, you can decide for yourself how much money you are going to use to continue to buy BTC versus how much you are going to have available to buy on dips. .and at what price points is that money for buying on dips going to be reserved.

If you have been in bitcoin since early 2017, then you could still consider yourself as still buying BTC in terms of long term investing for any new buys that are 4-10 years or longer from the point that you buy the BTC and not necessarily the point that you got started in BTC, even though your earlier purchases of BTC can still inform the extent to which you feel that you need to buy more BTC and what would be the terms upon which you are buying any new BTC.. are you thinking in terms of 4-10 years or longer for any new purchases or are you thinking in other kinds of terms, such as trying to play the wave with any such additional BTC that you might be buying now and planning to sell some or all of that at various points on the way up.  Ether practice could work, even though you might be trying to long term invest and also to have ideas about trading at the same time, which may or may not be a good idea or a good way of thinking about how to manage your BTC accumulation if you perceive yourself to still be in BTC accumulation phases or if you perceive yourself to be in some other stage, such as BTC maintenance or BTC liquidation.. and surely the stages are not absolutes, either, they can overlap one another.

If you are brand new to bitcoin and you are largely DCA buying, then you might not even feel that it is worth it to keep any money available for buying on dips because you DCA buys are fairly regular (maybe even on a weekly basis), and you might well just choose to attempt to time your dips within the week in order to try to buy on dips during each week that you are planning to buy anyhow, but once you get to a certain level of BTC accumulation, you might end up varying your strategy beyond merely DCA buying, and sometimes you will be correct to vary your strategy, and perhaps other times you would just be better off to just keeping on with your DCA buys..

and there is also no reason to believe that DCA buying is boring and our stagnant, especially if you are trying to be aggressive in your DCA approach.  The more aggressive that you are in your DCA approach, the more you need to pay attention to maintaining your emergency fund, and balancing your income versus your expenses in terms of strategizing when you are authorizing yourself to allocate parts of your income to buying bitcoin.  So for example, you could have a income that is between $1,200 and $3k per month, and expenses that vary between $1,600 and $2,200 per month, and surely I tend to be on the conservative side in terms of making sure that my income has come in before I spend it, but sometimes you also might want to make sure that both your income and your expenses are in for the month before you allocate the extra amount towards bitcoin, and since your both your income and your expenses have a decent amount of variance, you might feel a need to maintain a larger emergency fund that is closer to 6 months of expenses (which would be $13,200 ($2,200x6)), and if you have months in which your income is less than your expenses, you might be drawing from those emergency expenses, but you still may or  may not be in a situation in which you are maintaining a minimum amount that you continue to buy BTC no matter what... So, there are a lot of ways in which you can build cushions and priorities and do many things at once, even though some people like to describe DCA as boring, which I doubt that it has to be, except there are ways to purposefully make it boring, and that might be to choose a real lowball amount to DCA, such as $50 per month, even though you have a budget in which you could invest between $50 and $1k per month, depending on how your income versus your expenses play out for that month..

Everyone tries to do their best in investing and sometimes the implementation is different. Some say changing habits is difficult, especially changing investment patterns which in the past we often saw people putting in/buying everything at once, everything was considered appropriate and not wrong, but if we lower the tension just a little, in my opinion it would be wiser to arrange it, do it in such a way and that not that difficult.

I agree with you that each of us comes to investing in a way that is somewhat aligned with our past ways of doing things, and sometimes there could be ways that we can learn to improve our systems, and some people are more able to adapt than others, even though we still draw from our past experiences in terms of how we think about investing and if we also might have some bad habits that might not involve enough figuring out what are budget limits are and to make sure that we are not overly gambling or not understanding our cashflows well enough.

If we don't have a good idea for our cashflow 3-6 months into the future, and then we end up overly investing into bitcoin or into something else, then we might end up putting too much stress upon ourselves when our cashflow shortage comes later down the road, and we are not really sure from where it came (except if we would have planned in advance, we would have already been able to see how our income versus expenses were lining up and maybe we even have various cushions in our accounts that end up serving as the places in which we draw from for investing, so for example, if we are young and have hardly any responsibilities, then we might maintain at least a $500 cushion in our account at all times, and we can see the times of the month in which our various cashflows are close to the cushion. and maybe much of the month we have $2k to $5k extra, but every once in a while it we can see it gets close to the cushion so we make sure that we take measures to never go below that particular cushion.

If our finances are  more complicated with family obligations, business expenses, and even uncertainties of income, we might try to create a cushion that never goes below $3k... so yeah we realize if at any point we end up going below $3k, we are in a real bad place, so we have to scramble a bit to get it back above $3k, so the one with a cash cushion of $3k, might have regular cash balances that are in the $5k to $10k territory, but they can project ahead and see that each month they get close to $3k, and so they can use those kinds of balances to figure out how much they are able to invest and when to authorize their abilities to invest.. whether weekly, monthly or some other time period.

That's right, as you said, there is always the possibility of a market correction and sometimes it is beyond our understanding and just look today at how it can suddenly go down even though if we look at the graphic data it shows it will go up. So, what is needed in this situation is fresh funds to be able to absorb any downturn. Apart from research and observation before buying, the luck factor is not needed at all here because DCA is a pattern of buying every drop if we have savings.

DCA is buying based on your own budget, and buying the dip is buying the dip. They are different, and even if you might be at a point that you have accumulated quite a bit of BTC and you feel that you prefer to buy on dips rather than DCA, those kinds of decisions should be based on your own sense of whether you have accumulated enough BTC, and sometimes the BTC price action might inspire you to buy more or to buy less, but those likely are luxuries that come from having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC so that you are already feeling sufficiently/adequately prepared for up.

[edited out]
Correction always happen that's why we always need to look at this situation and don't play around since we think bitcoin will continue to pump.

Corrections do not "always" happen in the way that you are describing, yet each of us should always be prepared (psychologically and financially) for corrections to happen whether they end up happening or not.

If we do that for sure we regret these since for sure there's so many fuds will scatter and might we get affected with those situation.

Yes.. .We do not want to prepare for only one direction, even though ONLY 1 direction might end up happening, but we are prepared for either.

One thing about preparing for UP, an overwhelming majority of the persons of the world are not even close to sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP, so any of us who prepare for UP are going to be way more advantaged over them, and we are also going to be advantaged because we are prepared for both up and for down, and many of the persons of the world are also not prepared for down because they are not prepared to buy BTC when (or if) the BTC price goes down.. so there is one thing of being prepared to HODL through the down, but there is even a greater bonus to be prepared to buy on the way down (if it goes down), and to have some ideas before the downs happen, at which price points we are going to buy how much BTC... so preparing for UP and for DOWN does better prepare you for UP, too.  

But for sure over the time we are trading we can learn a lot base on our experiences

Hopefully if we are trying to accumulate BTC, we are not so dumb as to engage in trading (and/or gambling) tactics because an overwhelming majority of people will be better off to engage in more strict forms of BTC accumulation that includes various kinds of buying of BTC to accumulate more BTC, and selling BTC to accumulate BTC is not a very good practice for the overwhelming number of normal people of the world... in other words trading is a specialized practice and not advisable to do.. especially for beginners to bitcoin, and maybe ONLY once you establish your BTC stash after several years and maybe ONLY less than 10 % of the size of your BTC stash.

then for sure we can choose whether we do DCA or do long term HODL since we are well equip with knowledge we get thru our experiences in the market.

DCA and long term HODL go together, but surely anyone is free to sell their BTC at any time that they like, even if selling their BTC might not be a good idea in terms of longer term kinds of financial preparations.

When bitcoin  started gaining big rise, Investors would wait for the price to go down and when it does they go all in the market. And back then the price was more affordable when the price has not exceed $10,000. A lot of persons where doing lump sum. Now the price is way high for a regular citizen to afford to buy once this is why the DCA method is adopted by many.

Price is relative, so I doubt that BTC price is too high to perform lump sum or other tactics such as buying on dips, even though DCA can help to mitigate some of the affects of lump sum buying and/or buying on dips if the BTC price moves against what you expect, so if you buy on the dip or lump sum buy and the BTC price goes down, then DCA can help to mitigate the price exposure from having had chosen to engage in such lump sum purchasing of BTC.

Just to let you know, there are likely going to be folks who are new to bitcoin who are going to be buying a lot of BTC, and they are going to want to get exposure quickly rather than over an extended period of time, which is one of the advantages that lump sum (and buying on dip - if the dips happen) can have over the DCA approach to BTC buying.

Even if the BTC price went up 50% to 60% in less than 2 months, that still does not necessarily mean that BTC prices are currently high.  Also, recall BTC prices went up around 3x from their November 2021 bottom, so in about 2 years, but even now, as I type this post, BTC prices are ONLY right around 42% above the 200-week moving average (which is currently $29,634), which is hardly high prices, even if we might end up getting a BTC price correction... but we might not.. There are no guarantees... Historically the BTC price has gotten between 5x to 16x higher than the 200-week moving average, so surely the higher that the BTC price gets above the 200-week moving average, the more we might start to sense that the BTC price is frothy and due for a correction.. and on the short term basis, such corrections may or may not end up happening.

[edited out]
If we keep money in the bank, there is a possibility that the bank will go bankrupt and if the bank goes bankrupt, we will be burdened with debt as soon as we save money in the bank, why do we invest in it? It seems to me now that investing in Bitcoin is much safer than keeping money in the bank if you can store your investment in a good wallet.  
I am keeping money in the bank and the bank is doing business with my money so what is my profit there.

Instead of keeping money with others, you should invest yourself and create a great chance of profit by investing. We all love to save and keep money in the bank but many have different opinions when it comes to investing.  
Honestly now I don't trust the bank so I invest the remaining money in bitcoins and I consider this investment as savings and a way to get big profits in the long run.

All the money from my signature campaign is invested and I spend part of the money I get from my job for my family and the rest I invest in bitcoin consistently. Prior to consistent investment and DCA method I used to save some money in bank but now along with consistent bitcoin investment I have decided to invest the amount of money I have in bank and it will be a good decision for me. I earned the money hard so I don't want to lose that money by keeping it in the bank.

I would consider that there is nothing wrong with keeping a certain amount of money in the bank, including some of your cash reserves, and especially if you have expenses in fiat, then maybe some (or all) of your emergency fund might be in a bank or in several banks or even other kinds of places in which you can access if you need that money.  

Emergency funds should not be in your various investments, but instead various forms of fiat.  Of course, if you get so rich that you have 20-30 times or more of your annual expenses in various investments, then it becomes less critical regarding how well you protect your investments with an emergency fund, but newbie investors need to have an emergency fund to protect their investments, otherwise they could spend 3-10 years investing, and then not getting anywhere because they have to sell their investments at a time that is not of their own choosing because they failed/refused to maintain an adequate emergency fund.

People invest because your money is not likely going to be keeping up with inflation if you are keeping it in various fiat forms, but it still does not mean that you should not be keeping some money in various fiat forms.. even though you are going to get your growth (or even your abilities to keep up with inflation and the degradation of various kinds of fiat) through investing in assets and bitcoin is likely to be a good one (if not the best one) of the choices of where to put extra money.
2051  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2023, 04:23:20 AM
Confession time.  Some time ago when I was playing around with Walmart and McDonalds hat avatars because we were all poor again, somebody came up with the brilliant idea to rotate the Mcdonalds logo and make it look like a stylized bitcoin symbol.  Bitebits liked it and asked me to make him a hat with that logo on it and laser eyes.  I think I may have cheated and only altered a small hat... maybe I thought he would switch back to his original hat or maybe I was being lazy... memory fails me and I have no copy of a large version on my computer so I don't believe I started that one from scratch.  Who could have know some creative individual was going to come along and make some really cool bitcoin collectibles that would require a full-sized png version?  Anyway, I consider this redemption:
full-sized
 
avatar-sized
 
 Also, I guess I'm a liar (thanks for pointing that out @JimboToronto) because I always said the first hat was free and it came with a money-back guarantee.  I will ask your forgiveness.  Second hats are free for the good guys and I'm the arbiter of good in this case  Cool
Oh, and second hats also come with a money back guarantee.

I am pretty sure that I got 3 hats.

The original just had the dancer.

The second one had that dancer and the glasses.

And the third one added the lazer eyes.


All for ffffffffffffffffffffrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


 Wink Wink Wink Wink




Sorry to have had ended up as such a haberdasher burdenening.     Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry
2052  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Finally I did it (I am happy to join). on: December 26, 2023, 03:38:20 AM
[edited out]
I congratulate you on the purchase of your first Bitcoin! This is obviously the begining of your investment in the digital space, as you grow, you will notice more avenues to invest and it will also expose you to most of the events in the space.

Try to make it a constant thing to invest in digital assets, its never a waste and it exposes you to a whole lot of possibilities.

You seem to be referring to some kind of need or wiseness to invest into shticoins... @wallet4bitcoin, and surely that is not true.  It is probably dumb to be wasting time to be buying any  shitcoins at all, and if you have some kind of a gambling tendency, then maybe limit your investing into shitcoins to no more than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings.. and that might even be too much.

@Makus
@Darker45
@tabas
@LogitechMouse
@The Cryptovator
@odohu
It wasn't an easy task to invest in Bitcoin as it was my first time to deal with anything that had to do with cryptocurrencies. I have been hearing about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but back then I didn't put much interest in them. I wish I had invested then when I heard about Bitcoin on the very first day.

However, I believe this is just a start. That is why I have invested over 1.7 million naira in Bitcoin. With time, I will add more money to my investment and I have promised myself to hold my coins for a long term without selling a piece of them.

The advice of everyone on this forum has helped me as I have been benefiting a little. I haven't benefitted anything from Bitcoin yet, but I have gained some knowledge about cryptocurrency and how I can get as much as I want, only if I hold on for the long term. Thanks to everyone for your advice.
I'm happy for you on this bold step and I say congratulations. You have put to practice òur discussion in various threads regarding Bitcoin accumulation especially now that price is still very low.

I will like to know if you are adopting the DCA method that @JayJuanGee did excellent job at explaining or this is just a one off buy pending when you also have more funds. Personally, I have been using the former and the results have been incredible.  

To me, it sounds like OP decided to perform some kind of a lump sum and then to consider continuing to invest more into bitcoin in the future as his cashflow situation might permit.

Personally, I have nothing against lump sum investing into bitcoin from the start, yet the better practice would be to perhaps lump sum ONLY around 1/2 of the money that is immediately available, and save the other half for buying on dips, so in this case if there was around $1,400 spent on the first BTC purchase, then perhaps there would be another $1,400 for buying at various points on the way down if the BTC price were to go down, such as buy an additional $300 every time the price goes down $1,500 starting at $40,500 (or something like that).  It appears that OP made this particular purchase at around the highest price that the BTC has been in the last 20 months or so, but that still does not mean that the BTC price will correct or that the BTC price won't continue to go up from here.

Another thing that I would consider is setting up another ability to supplement the already purchase by setting up a DCA at around $50 per week for however long that it takes to reach whatever level of investment that is being targeted (whether that takes 4-10 years or longer or some other timeline that OP might have in mind), and maybe figuring out if there might be ways to increase the DCA amount by increasing income and/or decreasing expenses.   And, I am referring to $50 per week based on the amount that was already invested, since after 6 months, the DCA amount $50 per week would add up to nearly equal to the amount already invested in the $1,400 lump sum.  

In regards to the moving of the funds to a private wallet, I would not necessarily move $50 per week, but I would probably let it get up to around $500 to $1k before I would transfer it to a private wallet, since our latest in fees shows that it is better to attempt to practice better UTXO hygiene, and I think that it is better to keep UTXOs to $500 to $1k or more rather than having a bunch of small UTXOs.

As far as a private hardwarewallet.. sure there are ways to make electrum secure, but I am still nervous about those kinds of computer based wallets, and I am thinking that if you are able to get your hands on a decent hardware wallet (not talking about Ledger), then once your BTC are valued over $1k (which yours already are) then it seems to be necessary to start considering getting a hardware wallet.. and the more your value goes up, probably the more it is justified to consider some kind of hardware wallet.  This site is pretty decent in rating the hardware wallets, and this Athena site has a broader list of hardware wallet features and shows their methodology for rating wallets. Bitcoinhole has a lot of wallet details too.

No one can tell anyone else how to invest, but we can tell each other what we believe to be good and/or better practices, and we can agree to disagree regarding if any kinds of supplemental practices are necessary in terms of ways to accumulate BTC, whether referring to a brand new bitcoiner or someone who has been into bitcoin for a while, and the case of the brand new bitcoiner is a bit more clear of a case, because he is starting from zero, but still we do not know his various particulars such as his timeline or his risk tolerance or his cashflow and expenses or if he might have some other investments, besides bitcoin.

Edit: I am just referring to your opening post in your earlier thread in which you announced that you were planning to DCA $50 per month, which would have had been right around 16% of your $300 per month salary/income.  So in other words, if this whole thing is true that you had $1,450 saved up so that you would be able to lump sum invest, you likely overinvested into bitcoin (which is largely gambling) because you likely seem to have no plan for down (besides HODL, perhaps), and you may well take more than 2 years to be able to match the amount that you already lump sum invested if you were to still be able to invest $50 per month.. and your numbers don't even really add up to appear as a very reasonable way to invest into bitcoin.... and then why would there even be a need to create a new thread in order to talk about this actual lump sum purchase rather than just posting in the original thread

That's some huge amount you started with and a really bold step, congratulations on your purchase and although the market have started looking bullish, it's still not a bad time to buy because there is hope that the price will pump up even further and if you continue the purchase and hold it till the next ATH then i think everyone would agree that your profit would be tangible enough for you to at least sell off a portion of the investment.

How are you going to know it is a ATH?  You mean selling at $69k?  That would be dumb.

Can you imagine working up to have a long term investment in bitcoin and then you sell the next time that bitcoin reaches an ATH, and then you are left with nothing but an extra 2x in fiat...

Consider the people who sold their whole BTC stash at various previous ATHs of $1,163 in early 2017 or at $20k in late 2020?.. sure this particular time, in 2022, the BTC price did correct back below $20k again, but that seemed to have had been a bit of a fluke, and still had to wait a couple of years, and seems like selling way too early to have sold in late 2020 merely because BTC price got up to $20k again... but yeah, guys can do what they like, even dumb things of selling too much BTC too early and then not having any certain places in which to buy back their BTC at a lower price, if that were to be the goals of someone who might have had already decided to engage in long term accumulation of BTC...then why sell in order to accumulate BTC, unless you are a gambler and you enjoy purposefully putting yourself through the stress of no longer being in BTC accumulation mode.

With the names above, I was so encouraged to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a long term.

With the help of the above names and those that I didn't mention, I was encouraged to start the investment as soon as possible.
“The best moment to buy Bitcoin was yesterday.
The second best moment to buy Bitcoin is now.”
This is already enough to answer or explain why buying Bitcoin or be interested in Bitcoin is not late or in short, there's no time as being late. I definitely agree with this even though I said it myself and many people are also saying it to others. I think this may be included or considered as the third best moment to buy Bitcoin is tomorrow or it could be in the future. Well, It's because some people doesn't have money for now and are waiting for their money like salary or other means of earning money.

The point still remains to buy as much bitcoin as you can as soon as you can, and the mere fact that you start to buy bitcoin does not mean that you are going to have enough, and having enough is a work in progress that you are ONLY going to reach if you start to buy and you are fairly persistent, consistent, regular and aggressive about it.. as aggressive as you are able to be given your personal circumstances, and if you do not earn any money and you are a student, then you might really struggle to buy bitcoin, and you might be disadvantaged by your delaying in the buying of bitcoin, even though I do agree with idea of investing in yourself and learning how to learn and the kinds of things that can be learned in schools (or universities), even though there may also be ways to do both.. be a student and also to figure out ways to buy and/or earn bitcoin...and so yeah some of those are personal choices that might relate to where anyone happens to be at in the current stage of their life.

With the names above, I was so encouraged to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a long term.

With the help of the above names and those that I didn't mention, I was encouraged to start the investment as soon as possible.
“The best moment to buy Bitcoin was yesterday.
The second best moment to buy Bitcoin is now.”
This is already enough to answer or explain why buying Bitcoin or be interested in Bitcoin is not late or in short, there's no time as being late. I definitely agree with this even though I said it myself and many people are also saying it to others. I think this may be included or considered as the third best moment to buy Bitcoin is tomorrow or it could be in the future. Well, It's because some people doesn't have money for now and are waiting for their money like salary or other means of earning money.
Exactly, many newbies in investing in bitcoin or wanting to invest in bitcoin become too wary about whether they are too late or if it is too late for them to invest as the price of bitcoin is high. Their mindset is like they want to buy 1 BTC right away, which is not a good idea. If you can't buy 1 bitcoin, then buy a fraction of bitcoin, or what we call "satoshi." There are a lot of ways to earn bitcoin through the use of its fraction. Newbies don't have to buy 1 BTC right away; you can buy based on your capabilities. So it's never too late to invest in bitcoin. Do trading in that way, and you can grow your bitcoin if you have the necessary knowledge, skills, and experience in trading. And remember, bitcoin is a long-term investment, so newbies in bitcoin should be ready for a long wait.

You said a lot of smart things about bitcoin @Assface16678, until you mentioned trading.

Trading is not necessary to learn or to practice when it comes to investing time, money and energies into bitcoin.  Fuck trading.  It is not necessary, even if some folks might choose to engage in such trading/gambling practices, which might work against their abilities to actually accumulate bitcoin in a meaningful, consistent, persistent and aggressive way (be as aggressive as you are able to be without recking yourself).

Better late than never.
0.033 is already a nice amount these days, not everybody has 1400$ in crypto.

You can see that as a start only and hopefully some day you can call yourself the proud own of 100% of a bitcoin.

The road seems to be long but we have time.

What's the long term target? You have anything in mind?

It is not necessary to own a whole bitcoin.

Each person should invest in accordance with his abilities, and sure attempt to get as many bitcoin as you are able to get, up to a point... so OP has gotten to 3.3 million satoshis, and the next goal might be to get to 10 million satoshis, and then the next goal to get to 21 million satoshis, and then maybe to half of a bitcoin, etc etc etc.. and some people might not be able to reach a whole bitcoin, even if they started investing at $100 per week, they would invest $5,200 after a year and $52k after 10 years, and that still might not add up to a whole bitcoin.  Point is to do what you can, and sure be aggressive if you are able to be, and you likely need to aspire in stages and goals that are realistic and reachable.
2053  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: 49 Hardware Wallets, compared feature by feature on: December 26, 2023, 12:58:29 AM
I get a bit confused in terms of making comparisons - especially if one wallet type is not next to the one that I am trying to compare, or having to scroll across several pages horizontally to be able to see the comparisons in which I am interested.

Sure, I see the ability to filter various categories, but could there be a way to either select favorites (and then compare favorites) or maybe just a click box in the right upper corner to compare specific ones that are clicked (or the box could allow for the placement of a number value such as 1, 2, 3 and then the wallets would be sorted in accordance with the number that the user types in the box.. all the 1s would go next to each other, all the 2s next to each other, but after the 1s, and the ones without numerical assignment in their box would come last)..

Maybe being able to compare up to 10 or more at a time.. or if they are put in the order that the user-chooses, then maybe all of them can be compared and prioritized by the user.. and then that would end up allowing an ability for the user to order the wallets in a personalized way..- to customize which ones are next to each other if scrolling through the comparisons?
Hi. Thanks for the feedback. On the filters section you have the ability to filter by wallet name so that you can pick your favorites.
Maybe you can explain a little bit better how I would achieve such a result to compare 5-10 wallets side by side and in one glance rather than typing in and presumptively looking at one named wallet at a time.

Let's say for example, I wanted to compare: 1) Jade, 2) Coldcard Mk4, 3) Bitbox02 (BTC ONLY), 4) Keystone 3 Pro, 5) Passport Batch 2, 6) Trezor Model T, 7) SafePal S1 Pro Cool SafePal S1 Pro 9) KeepKey and 10) CoolWalletPro.

Then how would I accomplish such side-by-side comparison of those specific 10 HWs?

What I am suggesting is to put some kind of a check box or even a number ranking so that I can rank them myself and be able to see the ones that I choose side by side.  Do you see what I mean?  Is such a thing already possible?  If not, can you see how it would be user-friendly to be able to achieve a customized selection of side-by-side comparisons?
You can see the step-by-step in this video I posted on Twitter
https://twitter.com/thebitcoinhole/status/1732846389367906370

Basically, you need to go to Filters -> Basic Information -> Name and then pick all the wallets you want to compare.

Oh?  Thanks.  now I am feeling dumb.  I see it now.  Within basic information there is a drop down menu on the "name" button in which I can select the wallets from within that dropdown menu that I might want to compare.  

So yes, that is exactly what I was trying to say that I wanted to be able to do, but I could not figure out a way to get to that point.. .. until now..   I do think that it might be better to change the descriptor to something like "compare by name" rather than just saying "name" or some other way of highlighting that compare feature a bit better, because some people (similar to me) might get overwhelmed by how many wallets there are, and just end up leaving the site and yes if they are on a phone or other small-screened device then maybe they can only compare a few wallets at a time..

Now that I know how to do it.. I am going to feel more empowered to make comparisons in the other sections that you list too, such as nodes or software wallets.
2054  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: December 26, 2023, 12:40:10 AM
If you have to invest in Bitcoin at this time, you must invest quickly. Because the longer you delay the price of bitcoin will go up, because I can see bitcoin price stayed between 26k and 30k for a long time. At that time some people said that the price of bitcoin would be lower and it would be better to invest, but now that the price of bitcoin is 44k some people still say that it would be better to invest if the price of bitcoin is lower. But no, you should notice that Bitcoin price has almost doubled in last 2-3 months. So if you observe carefully you will realize that many people have made a lot of money by investing in this Bitcoin DCA method and they are becoming financially independent. If you invest regularly in bitcoins and your average price will decrease, then of course you can become self-sufficient using the DCA strategy in this way.
When I first heard of this kind of mindset, I remember rushing into a Bitcoin purchase without realizing that the market is erratic and that you can wait a little to buy at a discount.

A price increase does not guarantee that it will continue to rise without a fall. Because the price of bitcoin was rising, I had to purchase it at a high cost using the money I had saved. What did I witness the following day? The price of bitcoin dropped by 4%.

Having said that, don't suggest someone make a hasty investment because many people may utilize borrowed funds or their last savings to purchase bitcoin, which could lead to them selling off when they are not ready because of an emergency

If a person just came to this thread, and realized that he should be investing into bitcoin (and he owns absolutely no bitcoin right now), so within a day or two, he figures out that he has right around $2,400 that he could invest into bitcoin right away, and then after that he has about $400 per month that he knows that he can invest into bitcoin, and he believes that maybe he could get his financial matters in order in order to reduce his expenses and to increase his cashflow and perhaps increasing his discretionary income, but that might take some work to get there.

Let's say that he also realizes that he has around $2k in various kinds of debts, such as credit card debts.. and they vary in terms of their interest rates.. between 3% and 20%.. and he calculates that he has about 1.5 to 2 months of emergency fund. and he recognizes that he has to build his emergency fund to 3-6 months, especially if he is engaging in investing that presumes that the invested funds are not going to be available for 4-10 years or even longer than that...   

So he has to figure out right away about getting started in BTC right away or not.. and then also paying off his credit card debts, and how fast and which ones first, and building up his emergency fund and also shoring up his income and cutting expenses.  He could well do all at once, and in regards to the amount that he puts into bitcoin right away, he could lump sum in part of his available cash and save some for buying on dip and DCA.. although he already knows that he has cashflow coming in too.   

Identifying his own situation is part of the challenge, and there is some discretion regarding how aggressive to be or how to divide up various categories to do things simultaneously or to maybe accomplish one thing or another first or to give higher priorities to certain parts over other parts.  There might be smarter ways in regards to selecting whether to do some items first and/or whether to get started investing into bitcoin right away, and deciding how and how much in the various categories.  It could take 6 months to a year or maybe even longer before the person in this particular hypothetical is really able to get his finances in a decent place... and to me it seems that building his bitcoin stash should be something that he includes right from the start, even though he likely would not be able to invest very aggressively into bitcoin until getting some of his financial matters into a better order, and he really does have quite a bit to work with, but a lot of balancing of where to put his discretionary income (the amount of cash that he has remaining in his monthly budget after expenses).

Having said that, don't suggest someone make a hasty investment because many people may utilize borrowed funds or their last savings to purchase bitcoin, which could lead to them selling off when they are not ready because of an emergency
This is the issues that mostly happens when following trends or news about people speculating on bitcoin price and if it happens that the price is gradually driving to where they said you would notice a sign of regret in you for not investing but along the line you may still want to utilize the opportunity to venture into investment either with borrowed money or not. During investment we need to be prepared for it not because we see some changes in the market before we could go invest there are some people who doesn't make investment if they don't see the market changes direction maybe with at least 10 percent changes they won't invest without knowing that the market could turn back as a correction the previous charts or candle.

There is always a possibility for a correction, and that is part of the reason that everyone needs to invest in bitcoin in a way in which he prepares for short-term price moves in either direction, and if he has no bitcoin, then he is not prepared for up.. .so even if the BTC price has already gone up more than 60% in the last 2.5 months, that still does not mean that it might not continue to go up from here.

Historically many people are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP, and that still remains the case of the overwhelming majority of the population, generally speaking an overwhelming number of peeps are inadequately and insufficiently prepared for UP... and that inadequate/insufficient preparation for up problem is at least partially addressed by at least getting off zero and getting some BTC.

I doubt that being in bitcoin for 4-5 years or more helps you to know better when the BTC price will move,
There is nothing to be unsure of. It is a fact. Many years of experience cannot make an investor know what the price of bitcoin would be. Although experiences matters a lot when you want to accumulate Bitcoin. It will help you know the strategy to use and when to utilize that strategy to accumulate enough Bitcoin. In my experience DCA is the way. When it goes up we DCA and when it goes down we DCA as well. DCA has helped me neglect the urges to trade short term and sell often. With time it will be the best way to accumulate Bitcoin.

Wow! 

You have been here nearly 2 years longer than me, and if you are suggesting that maybe earlier in your BTC accumulation journey, you screwed up because you did not accumulate enough BTC, then at some point you might know if you have accumulated enough BTC... but you gotta get started and keep accumulating the BTC until you have enough.

How much is enough is another story, and so you should attempt to account for your personal circumstances, but the longer that you have been accumulating and the more aggressive that you have been, then at some point, your BTC accumulation could even bring you to entry-level fuck you status.. which should be a sign that maybe you are getting close to the state of having had accumulated enough BTC.. and surely, even getting to entry-level fuck you status, might not mean that you are quite ready, yet to pull the fuck you lever and to be able to live off of your BTC investment through a kind of passive income (and perhaps other investments that you have), so if you are fairly young, then you have a lot of years that you would need to feel comfortable to support yourself, and if you are getting older and closer to retirement age, then you may well be at an age where you were already planning to stop working.. and so then there might be a question if you have any other sources of age-based income such as social security, pension 401k.
2055  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: 49 Hardware Wallets, compared feature by feature on: December 25, 2023, 11:56:00 PM
I get a bit confused in terms of making comparisons - especially if one wallet type is not next to the one that I am trying to compare, or having to scroll across several pages horizontally to be able to see the comparisons in which I am interested.

Sure, I see the ability to filter various categories, but could there be a way to either select favorites (and then compare favorites) or maybe just a click box in the right upper corner to compare specific ones that are clicked (or the box could allow for the placement of a number value such as 1, 2, 3 and then the wallets would be sorted in accordance with the number that the user types in the box.. all the 1s would go next to each other, all the 2s next to each other, but after the 1s, and the ones without numerical assignment in their box would come last)..

Maybe being able to compare up to 10 or more at a time.. or if they are put in the order that the user-chooses, then maybe all of them can be compared and prioritized by the user.. and then that would end up allowing an ability for the user to order the wallets in a personalized way..- to customize which ones are next to each other if scrolling through the comparisons?
Hi. Thanks for the feedback. On the filters section you have the ability to filter by wallet name so that you can pick your favorites.

Maybe you can explain a little bit better how I would achieve such a result to compare 5-10 wallets side by side and in one glance rather than typing in and presumptively looking at one named wallet at a time.

Let's say for example, I wanted to compare: 1) Jade, 2) Coldcard Mk4, 3) Bitbox02 (BTC ONLY), 4) Keystone 3 Pro, 5) Passport Batch 2, 6) Trezor Model T, 7) SafePal S1 Pro Cool SafePal S1 Pro 9) KeepKey and 10) CoolWalletPro.

Then how would I accomplish such side-by-side comparison of those specific 10 HWs?

What I am suggesting is to put some kind of a check box or even a number ranking so that I can rank them myself and be able to see the ones that I choose side by side.  Do you see what I mean?  Is such a thing already possible?  If not, can you see how it would be user-friendly to be able to achieve a customized selection of side-by-side comparisons?
2056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 25, 2023, 08:15:41 PM
There will be a pull back, but know that it wont last long, .....

That's what she said.

Bought my first bitcoins around Christmas 10 years ago. I have many of you guys to thank for helping me hodl through all this time - sorry for not contributing.

Anyway - Merry Christmas and thanks once again!

/ Longtime lurker

Me too!!!

I first bought nearly 1 month before Christmas 10 years ago, but surely 10 years ago on Christmas was a long time ago. 

From looking at my records, I can see that I was pretty consistent with my one month of experience of buying BTC, so by the time Christmas came in that year, I was already pretty active (maybe even too much if I think about it, but still it is difficult to be too self-critical because each of acts upon information that we have at that particular time)...

It is a little funny looking back at that. .. and just like many of us likely engage in an end of the year accounting of various aspects of our lives.. so I guess we are in those times of reviewing what we did last year versus what we might be planning for the coming year(s).
2057  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 25, 2023, 07:29:03 PM

🎄 Bitcoin Price on Christmas Day:
2010: $0.25
2011: $4.22
2012: $13.35
2013: $690
2014: $318
2015: $455
2016: $895
2017: $13,983
2018: $3,779
2019: $7,193
2020: $24,705
2021: $50,440
2022: $16,828
2023: $43,146


BTC_Archive=>> https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1739246752115347943?t=e2A58TdZ4ANfs9u6y0gvEQ&s=19
We can expect the Bitcoin price to be above $80,000 by Christmas 2024.

I will say that I already almost posted an answer on this topic.

But in the Christmas spirit, I will amend what I said in my earlier post to add a few more years, so end of the year 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028....,.. which is 5 more years. which largely suggests in order for the bottom of the BTC price to be getting drug up, the BTC spot price is likely going to pull such bottom UPwardly... so the bottom should be above $80k at some point in 2028, yet since these are projections in advance, we could have some variance in either direction and the bottom could go up higher and faster than expected.. perhaps? perhaps?   

I do also note that it appears that it is projected that less than 21 BTC will potentially be entry-level fuck you status by the end of 2028.. so that could be a good thing for anyone getting close to that number of BTC or maybe able to work on reaching that number of BTC at or near the end of 2028.

Number Go Up Technology.
@BitcoinMagazine
Historical #Bitcoin  prices on Christmas Eve 🎄  
2013 - $666
2014 - $323
2015 - $455
2016 - $899
2017 - $13,926
2018 - $4,079
2019 - $7,323
2020 - $23,736
2021 - $50,822
2022 - $16,822  
2023 - $43,665
https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1738911669143638140

Incredible man how, two years ago it was at 50,822 , one year later go down till 16,822 and now we recover like a beast and we are in a solid 44k.

Cant wait to next year to see what number is waiting for us, are we gonna finally reach the 6 figures? We are so long on 5 figures.

Sure, we are progressing upwards, and just like 2, 3 and 4 figures have become a relic of the past, 5 figures is also likely going to go there, too.. even though it can be difficult to know how long it is going to take.  Surely, in November 2022, we were close revisiting 4 figures again, but ended up not happening, as we know, and likely 4 figures has become a relic of the past.

From my below chart (that shows end of the year - end of November beginning of December), if you just focus on the RL-Price (BTC spot price) as compared to the BTC Bottom (200-week moving average), you will see that the bottom keeps moving up, which would be part of the argument regarding why not to get too preoccupied or obsessed over whether the BTC spot price might be going up or down from time to time (whether yearly or other time periods).. In other words, the 200-week moving average (or the BTC bottom) has, so far, continued to move up over all time periods (knock on wood)...

Actually if you go to look at my full-chart (by clicking on the below link), you will see that the worst period for the amount that the 200-week moving average has been moving up on a 6 month's basis had been the past 18 months - at least the calculations between June 2022 and November 2023, which largely shows that the 200-week moving average had ONLY gone up on average of 20% per year during that worst (so far) ever period of BTC's history.

(Date)
(RL_Price)
(BTC Bottom)
(%gain/time)
(% Rate ∆)
($ Amount ∆)
(#Coins/FU Status)
12/01/2010
$0.21
$0.30
$0.42
6,666,667.0000
12/01/2011
$2.97
$4
300.%
$3.00
500,000.0000
11/30/12
$13.00
$6
20.%
$1.00
333,333.0000
11/30/13
$1,104
$62
287.5%
$46.00
32,258.0000
11/30/14
$381
$184
52.07%
$63.00
10,870.0000
12/01/2015
$369
$252
16.13%
$35.00
7,937.0000
11/30/16
$743
$389
26.71%
$82.00
5,141.0000
11/30/17
$9,948
$1,049
98.3%
$520.00
1,907.0000
11/30/18
$4,139
$3,133
34.12%
$797.00
638.3658
11/30/19
$7,405
$4,908
32.51%
$1,204.00
407.4980
11/30/20
$19,610
$7,322
24.21%
$1,427.00
273.1494
11/30/21
$57,003
$17,839
39.9%
$5,088.00
112.1139
11/30/22
$17,164
$24,112
9.23%
$2,038.00
82.9463
11/30/23
$37,814
$29,049
10.4%
$3,021.10
68.84920000
11/29/24
$39,196
16.32%
102.00%
$6,396.81
51.02540000
11/30/25
$53,484
16.98%
102.00%
$9,081.23
37.39434790
11/30/26
$63,282
8.55%
95.00%
$5,410.61
31.60455200
11/30/27
$73,702
7.72%
95.00%
$5,687.11
27.13637487
11/29/28
$96,018
14.28%
102.00%
$13,711
20.82939937

** Note
this is an edited chart - therefore, the (%gain/time) and the (% Rate ∆) numbers are not accurate for this particular chart because they are based on the prior 6 months (not based on the prior 1 year that is shown here)

2058  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: December 25, 2023, 06:34:08 PM
There can be some traders who win on a vast majority of their trades, but in bitcoin, historically there have sometimes been such violent upward moves in the BTC price that never end up returning, so if a person is not long into bitcoin at the time, or if a person had shorted without a sufficiently strong stoploss, it may well end up that the person ends up losing out upon years worth of gains all because they failed/refused to have a long position in bitcoin at a time that ends up being crucial to the profitability of their BTC holdings.
Exactly that is my point view too the potential for significant upward moves in the price of Bitcoin that can be missed by traders who are not long at the time. It is true that timing the market perfectly is extremely difficult and missing out on these crucial moments can result in missed gains. And I think if there is the experience matters so the luck also matters if there is a trader. And if there is the person who is DCAing regularly so he will get the reward of patience.

It seems that the point is that when the unexpected moves upward come, there may not end up being a correction in order to get back in, and we never really know when those unexpected move upwards are going to be.  So it is better if we are "mostly in" during those period in which the BTC price goes up and does not end up correcting back down.

We also don't even know once an UPward move happens (for instance the move up from $16k to $25k in late 2022/early 2023 with ONLY a correction to $19,800, and then our recent move up from $26k/$27k in mid October up to nearly $45k.. and so far hardly any corrections) if it will correct back down or not... and historically, sometimes we have seen 2x, 3x or more in fairly short periods of time... but there could be several 15% to 30% upward moves within the larger upward price move... so the point is mostly to be "in" during those UPpity periods.

however once we get to 4 years or more, there seems to be a tendency that the longer that you have been investing into BTC then the better off that you are, even if there might be some BTC price peaks in some of the years that might cause the percentages to not be very different between some of the adjacent years, even though still the overall idea of the longer that you have been in the more likely the better off that you would have been by DCAing into bitcoin as compared to other possible methods, even though surely if you see prices after the fact, you still can make arguments that you might have had been able to figure out how to buy at lower prices. which seems mostly a fantasy, unless you had actually been able to do it, which also might have had been more luck than anything meaningfully undermining how DCA has tended to be a quite solid practice for allowing folks to be as aggressive as they are able to in regards to BTC accumulation and still likely being able to accumulate more BTC, even if it might have had costed them more than other strategies, but there also is likely some value to the fact that they had been able to consistently and persistent accumulate BTC over the years, and there is no real sign that DCA is becoming a less valuable strategy, especially when it comes to longer term BTC accumulation over 4-10 years or longer. 
If you keep on investing in DCA manner then after sometime you get to know more about how to do DCA in a way that can give you additional benefit, provided you keep  calculations from your own hand and calculator. Its just a matter of time before you start seeing yourself confident in DCA and figuring out when to be more aggressive.
Bitcoin still takes big dives in its price. Last December price was 16k and this December its gone way up to 43k. If your DCA is span over a period of 4 to 5 years and you are continuously doing it then it wont be difficult for you to judge when to buy more.  

I doubt that being in bitcoin for 4-5 years or more helps you to know better when the BTC price will move, but it helps you to figure out at what prices that you might buy, if you had started to slow down in your BTC accumulation, then you may stop DCA and ONLY accumulate on dips or during BIG dips.. but you are likely mostly informed by a sense of already having more BTC.. and perhaps even getting to a point in which you feel that you have enough BTC relative to other assets that you also have.    Your choices are likely not even going to end up being correct, but you are in a better position to have more options after you spent some time accumulating bitcoin (and also more likely to have your currently held BTC in profits) versus the person who might be in his first year or two of BTC accumulation, but some people still might not end up doing the right thing because they might be trying to keep their average cost per BTC down, and then they end up being too whimpy in their BTC accumulation, merely resting on their having had accumulated BTC at lower prices and at earlier times.  There sometimes can develop feeling of futility if you accumulated 4-5 BTC over the past 4-5 years, but at that same accumulation rate, you may well ONLY be able to accumulate 0.5 to 1 BTC over the next 10 years, so there could be some questions regarding if it is a good idea to continue to accumulate BTC, and no one can really decide for that person who is weighing his own particulars in order to figure out whether 4-5 BTC is enough and how much better would it be to have 5-6 BTC, even if it could take another 5-10 years to accomplish such additional BTC accumulation.
2059  Other / Meta / Re: 2FA added on: December 25, 2023, 05:33:12 PM
Google Authenticator doesn't support the export/import function, so you need to have access to the application if you are about to switch devices whereas Authy is one of the popular 2FA app that works on multiple devices when you login to your account.
Google Authenticator can be exported to another Android device without any issue. I have done it in the past so anyone can be using an Android handset. Clicking on the three dots on the Authenticator screen and following the screens, is a very easy process.
I haven't used google Authenticator in years so I am not sure about their recent updates added to their app but even with such an export feature it is only possible to export the existing accounts only if we have access to the old device where the app is installed right?

Authy is different in that, it can be logged into multiple devices at the same time but if someone is looking for an open-source authenticator then Aegis Authenticator might be the best option.
https://github.com/beemdevelopment/Aegis

In the last several years, Google Authenticator has allowed running on several devices at the same time, and if you have it running on another old device, then you would have been issued a back-up code that you could use to activate that save Google Authenticator account on a new device.  Of course, you would have had to write down your back-up code in order to use it to reinstall on a new device.
2060  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: So what is an easy way to have LN for a miner. And others. on: December 25, 2023, 04:43:59 AM
And I am not trying to suggest you run a node or do anything more than just use the lightning network in the way best for you.  I believe fees are going to follow a trajectory much like the price and hashrate has.  So doing mining as you do getting used to layer 2 strategies is going to become more and more important.  
I apologize for the offtopic, but do you know of any way to run node LN on Windows? I've been looking and haven't found anything that I find interesting.
LND has pre-compiled windows binaries.
https://github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd/releases  <-- Don't trust my links verify for yourself.
You would need that and a full BTC node.
With everything figure a full 1TB free on a drive before you start.

Keep in mind you will also need 24/7 uptime for the PC and your internet connection.

And coffee lots of coffee to keep you up while getting it to work.

-Dave

1) I have not set up a node either, but I thought that a potentially good option for running a node on a PC would be the DIY Start9.  

https://docs.start9.com/0.3.5.x/diy/diy-x86

The DIY Start9 apparently runs on Linux, Windows or MacOS...

@cAPSLOCK Have you run one of these? or some variation of it? on your hardware or on their hardware?

2)  @Phillip1957.  In your several posts starting out this thread, there are several times that you are using the terms custodial versus non-custodial incorrectly.

I don't like those custodial/non-custodial terms either and I find them confusing (which is also probably the case with an overwhelming number of bitcoin newbies - and you are not even a newbie and you are not using the terms correctly.... and I am not even blaming you for that because they are confusing).  

In any event, in order to lessen some of the ambiguity, I tend to use the term third-party custodial (to refer to custodial) and Self-custodial to refer to non-custodial.. We likely know that another ambiguous term that has been coming up is hosted versus unhosted wallets, in order to try to normalize third party custodial as if self-custody (or non-custodial or unhosted) was a bad thing.. and the fact of the matter is that the use of confusing terms is likely an attack vector on bitcoin and an attack on ideas of self-custodial, which everyone has rights to be able to custody his own money, information and value and to have privacy over these kinds of matters..

3) This website strives to categorize and describe several lightning network wallets in terms of custodial and non-custodial, and I personally have ONLY used Cash App (Custodial), Bluewallet (the custodial version of lightning network that they used to have), Breez (non-custodial - but had my channel force closed), and Phoenix (non-custodial and I have been using it since February/March 2023 - but have probably ONLY done fewer than 20 transactions with it).  

I personally believe that it is not too much work to set up something like a Phoenix wallet, and you can store the 12 words, and you can also do a cloud backup, but I don't do that.  The set up fees are a bit higher right now, and last week, they were like 30k to 50k satoshis because of onchain fees.  They are now coming down to between 15k and 25k satoshis in the last few days, and maybe will be able to set up for less than 10k satoshis in the near future?  Once the channel is open, then if you are using it every month, you will probably find it easier to use, and less concerns about using the (third-party) custodial services that you are currently exploring with nice hash, kraken and others that you are looking into.  I have not tried to set up any Electrum wallet (or to use lighting network in that way), so I don't have that level of experience, so far... but like you, I am working on various ways to try to increase my exposure to various lightning network applications/wallets and to try to learn more about ways that I might be able to use them to have more options during sometimes uncertain fee times that still seems to be our current on-chain situation.
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