I make money being bullish, but I can't make any money being bearish in part because I don't trust the exchanges to hold my short, and because Bitcoin is in a long-term bull trend and I probably dare not short it even in an intermediate bear market.
I'm not in this game as long as you've been, but I seem to make money only in bull markets, but increase my btc in bear markets. Sure, you'll say it's obvious, but I think it was Rampion who gave me that idea some point in the middle of last year, until then I didn't really think of it that way. |
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If you mean when do we start the run-up towards a new ATH: between July and end of 2014.
If you mean, when do we see the vertex after reaching a new ATH, then I'd say: hopefully early next year. February, maybe.
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so, I live under a rock and I am lazy as hell
can someone tell me what just happened?
Karpeles made an appearance on Oprah earlier today and pulled the private keys for 600k coins out of his ass. One at a time. That would lower the price I think. 600k BTC lost is 2.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined (more than 5% of currently mined ones)  All that time cautioning against rocket pics and suddenly this?!!  Yeah. Guess being bullish brightens one's mood... Bear. Not even once. |
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Just piping in here to say this isnt a circle jerk and there are more people following your stuff than you think ;)
Thanks! I really appreciate that :) |
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Better graph of the breakout:  This line just shows how meaningless all the line drawing is :) No, it just shows you don't understand trendlines or triangles :) |
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The following is just a side remark, posted in full awareness that, while the current breakout looks solid to me, it could still turn out to be false, or at least retrace so much it'd hurt. Anyway, here's a 15 min view of the breakout, together with the LT log downtrend I (and many others) have been going on about for ages...  Jup. That's clearly the shape of a big middle finger forming, aimed at those who think trendlines are just "randomly drawn lines on a chart" :D Also, don't say it's "just a self-fulfilling prophecy". Even if it were one, it would still mean you can't ignore it. EDIT [...]
Taken together, those trendlines meet at 4 points:
(1) (Latest) Time of conclusion: Late May. Price point of conclusion: low to mid 400s. A possible candidate to mark the end of the December bear market. It would mean the 400 trendline held after all, but so does the more severe downtrend (B). Assuming it would break out downwards, we would get to:
[...]
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so, I live under a rock and I am lazy as hell
can someone tell me what just happened?
Karpeles made an appearance on Oprah earlier today and pulled the private keys for 600k coins out of his ass. One at a time. That would lower the price I think. 600k BTC lost is 2.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined (more than 5% of currently mined ones) You had to be there to fully appreciate the bullishness of the situation. My tv's still sticky. |
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so, I live under a rock and I am lazy as hell
can someone tell me what just happened?
Karpeles made an appearance on Oprah earlier today and pulled the private keys for 600k coins out of his ass. One at a time. |
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So jetzt halt ich meine Klappe und lass dem Kurs seinen Lauf.
Den Bitcoin-Kurs in seinem Lauf,
den hältst du sowieso nicht auf! ;DOnkel Paul Würde diesen Spruch echt gern im 'wall thread' re-posten, würde dort aber wahrscheinlich keiner verstehen. Erich wäre stolz auf uns :P Wenn er denn mal richtig wiedergegeben worden wäre. Den Bitcoin-Kurs in seinem Lauf, hält weder Ochs noch Esel auf! Noch richtiger waere: Den Bitcoin-Kurs in seinem Lauf, hält weder Bull noch Bärle auf! Oder einfach umdrehen, dann schwäbelt's nicht so :P "Den Bitcoin-Kurs in seinem Lauf hält weder Bär noch Bulle auf!" |
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So jetzt halt ich meine Klappe und lass dem Kurs seinen Lauf.
Den Bitcoin-Kurs in seinem Lauf,
den hältst du sowieso nicht auf! ;DOnkel Paul Würde diesen Spruch echt gern im 'wall thread' re-posten, würde dort aber wahrscheinlich keiner verstehen. Erich wäre stolz auf uns :P |
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I wonder when TERA will acknowledge the fractal pattern has been broken. Maybe still too early, but this could go in the right direction (north)
She won't. She lives in some kind of fantasy world. Right now she's staring at the screen trying to figure out why her $320 buy order didn't fill. She'll be here soon enough crying about bull traps and how we will go down. Unlikely. He probably got in on the action by now. (and will sell slightly before the rest of us, just in time for the retracement) |
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daily volume is still low ... we have to wait. looks more like some panic buys because there was no drop to the down side.
why would that indicate a panic buy? Maybe people feel safe to buy, because they think the bottom is in? I think there is enough genuine indicators that we are changing long term trend that large money has more confidence than it has since last year. As always, I think it heavily depends on your appetite for risk... Balls of steel, and there at the right time? buying at $340 Don't care about bear market, it feels cheap? $420 Waiting for some confirmation, like break of long term downtrend? $470 (now) Further confirmation by volume and price? Probably around $520. Kinda slow to get in, but at least you know we're done with the downtrend for good? Above SMA200, ~$620 My point is, I wouldn't count on "big money" getting in right now just because we broke a bit of resistance. But another group of people sitting on fiat saw a few more signs that we're (slowly, maybe) turning around, and got in. I'm one of them. |
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Clouds dammit. I want clouds.
Way too early for that :D But chances are better now we're getting there pretty soon, I believe. |
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Update on long term downtrend and Money FlowLong term log downtrend broken: check  SMA50 broken: check  Money flow stable to rising: check  Comparably low volume so far (though better than the week before), which is both consistent with "guided action" by a whale, or just the cautiousness you'd expect after a long bear market. I do however take the MFI development (since my last post about it) as evidence that we have decent price support at this level, so even if we don't see a high-volume rally coming up in the next days (which the bulls are cheering for now), I now consider the events 'rally' or 'slow crawl upwards' strictly more likely than 'sudden crash' or 'slow crawl downwards'. To be on the safe side, waiting for confirmation through volume until tomorrow could be a good idea, but it can also mean you're missing out on profit. Your choice. tl;dr If this is another pump & dump, it is well enough orchestrated for me to think this is the real deal. Short-to-mid term bullish again.
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I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:
a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.
b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).
Do you allow me agreeing?  I'm glad you agree, but I'm not sure if we agree to the same thing. |
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Looks like volatility isn't entirely dead yet :D
About time.
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I agree to the extent that you may be saying that some bears can be reasonable and some bulls unreasonable.
To me, it does NOT make a whole lot of sense for some bears to be involved in this forum, especially, if they are NOT contemplating investing. It makes more sense for a day-trader bull to be involved in this forum.
So, personally, I find it a little irritating to be dealing with the bears who are NOT at all invested and have NO intention to invest, and I question their motives, even those, such as Jorge, who once in a while make a contribution to the dialogue.
Overall, we may NOT disagree very much, just a matter of degree - or maybe if we get into a specific scenario, we may disagree on where to place the emphasis.
I wrote, a few posts ago, that I believe ultimately everyone sane posting here must be bullish, at least on a long enough time line. Those who aren't, seem to believe they have to "reform" us in some way. I don't know many in here who I suspect to suffer from that delusion, jorge being one of those who I genuinely believe have no intention to invest, but simply wants to "fight irrationality" or something like that. Most bears here, even the so called "perma bears", are on some level bullish. They might think price is grossly overinflated, and has been for years. That's not very rational either, imo, but they are not on here without having any skin in the game, or never having had any. |
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I have NO problem with the example that you just provided, yet without seeing specifics, your comment seems like a broad generalization b/c in any group, there will be some people who act out, but are NOT representative of the group.
Surely, you may be correct that a large number of bulls were (and have been) denying the importance of china, even while BTC prices were falling. Nonetheless, we would need a context if we would say that a bunch of these BTC moonstruck bulls were overly misusing the term FUD as a means to avoid reality and to denigrate their distractors.
In the end, I maintain that redefining FUD, as a smart-ass response to intentionally exaggerate the detachment of some of these posters from reality does NOT move along the conversation in a productive direction and it seems to be purposefully denigrating and incitement - like saying that bulls are part of a cult or a religion or some of those other bearshit comments.
I believe that most bulls can accept when bears talk bearish, so long as they substantiate their comments and use logic, reason and disclose when they are merely asserting a guestimate.
Agreed on most of what you say. But I still think you apply a double standard: bears would accept bulls talking as long as they provide reasons for their claims, and bears... you're not seriously going to claim that bulls are on average "more reasonable" than the bears posting here? At least the way it looks to me, the ratio of exuberant, resistant to reason bulls to bulls in total is about the same as that of permanently pessimistic, resistant to reason bears to bears in total. Just the numbers bulls vs. bears in total is heavily in favor of bulls, which is okay, considering that this is, in the widest sense, a pro bitcoin forum. |
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Meh. Not exactly the most impressive rally I've seen.
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Fonzie's SHORT mode ON. I'm buying. |
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