We still realize that ongoing BTC price performance to the upside is not guaranteed, but if we do not fuck around with the amount that we invest (by using leverage and other forms of extreme risk taking), then the most that we would end up losing in the worse case scenario is 100%.. while at the same time, there seem to be decent chances of BTC prices continuing to gravitate upwardly, there are a variety of upwards scenarios that support BTC price scenarios of 10s, if not 100s, if not 1,000s, of times higher than current BTC prices, so there seems to be some logic to putting value into BTC and taking chances on bets that have decently good upside asymetry, and surely it might be good to be aggressive in terms of investing in bitcoin, yet even if some of us might decide not to be very aggressive, some of the non-aggressive persons will also end up being quite a lot better off by investing into bitcoin as opposed to choosing not to invest in bitcoin.

Think of the guy who started investing in bitcoin with $10 per week at the top of the BTC price market at $1,163  in late 2013.  He would have had invested $5,170, and he would have accumulated right around 4.62 BTC.  Sure, he might not be rich, but he has more options and he also has a pretty decent amount of value from a pretty low commitment amount..  Of course, the guy who invested 10x that $100 per week would be 10x better off with having had invested nearly $52k and with 46.2 BTC, but the one who invested 10x more may also had to have had struggled more in order to be able to invest that amount of money as compared with the one who had merely invested $10 per week, and so my point is that sometimes even whimpy investing into something like BTC could end up paying off decently well if there is a long enough timeline, and at the same time there are still no guarantees of good or great performance even though the investment thesis for bitcoin does not seem to be getting any weaker.


I think that the earlier you are in your investment, the more difficult it can be to just keep plowing away at ongoing DCA buying, such as $10 per week or $100 per week, whatever might be the chosen amount, and surely it does not get completely easier, but with the passage of time, there likely can develop increasing confidence, such as 4-10 years of DCAing into BTC could have decent potentials to add up to a decent amount of value.

While you are ongoingly and continuing to invest into bitcoin, there are likely needs to get other aspects of your life in order too, and whether you are able to increase your cashflow or to decrease your expenses, you might need to figure out ways to be moderate and maybe even reward yourself from time to time with some levels of consumption, so long as you are not completely depleting your efforts, after several years of investing, you might choose to either shave off some of you investing into bitcoin or maybe just take from other sources of income or cash reserves that you had been building up and reward yourself for your good efforts... but at the same time, you might get yourself into a bad situation if you believe you constantly need to be rewarding yourself, and there are going to be various periods of investing that even in the middle of the investment you start to feel like you need to cash out some because the asset is too volatile for your own psychology. 

Whatever you decide to do, it is probably better to plan it out rather than being impulsive, and it seems that buying on the way down and selling on the way up are the better basic ideas to stay ahead of things and let the price come to you rather than reacting.. yet since this thread is about buying strategies, we are mostly trying to consider those kinds of matters rather than the various ways that each of us likely need to make sure that we are keeping our house in good enough order that we are coming to bitcoin with a stable psychology and stable finances, and likely if we create conditions to stabilize our finances, then psychology will likely go along with those kinds of preparations.

I doubt that the status of the desperate state of mind of the claimants should be a reflection in regards to what "should be" done, and surely there is a bit of a problem in these kinds of situations in which the entity may well not have been holding value in the asset that they claimed to have on the books and the recovery of value might end up taking place in other assets, so there can be some difficulties resolving the books if the trustees are recovering value in various kinds of assets and then reflecting that value in dollars, but a decent number of claimants are wanting to receive bitcoin that may or may not end up being recovered by the trustees and may not be recovered in that form. if the value does end up being recovered.  

It is pretty sad that the value of the estate is determined from the bitcoin price at the time of the filing when a lot of the worse aspects of the crashing of the bitcoin price may even be attributable to criminal and/or fraudulent actions of that very exchange.

Many of us lay persons are not going to have a lot of information regarding what were the claims versus what were the recovered assets and if they might not even have the bitcoin to reimburse but they might have dollars or they might have property.. and sure some of that will get converted (such as the property), and most likely converted into dollars.. so then if the exchange ends up having obligations to reimburse into the asset that the claimant had there (especially the more common coins, such as bitcoin), then does the estate then need to go into the market and buy bitcoin.. maybe that would be the most just thing in this kind of case, even if they are recovering assets and converting into dollars.

At least that gives a little information about the reference.. . .not that we should necessarily be advertising any particular exchanges.. but most require KYC, and I have troubles wondering why the CEO being a female makes much if any difference, even though it is not a bad thing to have some ideas behind the operators of exchanges, to the extent we might figure that there might be some questionable practices.. but sometimes exchanges gain reputation merely from being around a long time and if there customers are not losing their coins, then that could be a good thing... of course, until they get rug pulled, which also sometimes what ends up happening.

You should not put all of your eggs in one basket, but diversification does not really count when it is done in the same sector.. especially if you know what is the leading asset, which in the case of "crypto" is bitcoin... and the rest of it is either crap or largely correlated to bitcoin, so just adding more risk onto an already risky asset... and so maybe if you are going to invest into any shitcoin, you probably would not want to put more than 10% into any of them (or even all of them in terms of your bitcoin holdings, your shitcoins should all add up to probably less than 10% of your bitcoin investment size - absent your having some kind of a deep knowledge of one of them, which may well just mean that you are scamming others, since many of the shitcoins are scams and only the insiders are making money off of scamming regular people).

If you are new to investing, then you might just have savings in bitcoin and fiat, yet as your savings grows.. and maybe bitcoin starts to constitute a decent fraction of your annual salary.. then it may be a good idea to diversify out of it, and maybe diversifying to more than just fiat.. but also maybe stocks, bonds, property, commodities, and maybe other cash equivalents (not talking about shitcoins.. and bitcoin is a kind of commodity, even though you could invest into some other commodities if you want to have some of your value in some other places)..

so yeah, you don't want to have all your eggs in one basket, but that does not mean to be stupid and buy shitcoins... while at the same time, there could be points in which your wealth grows so much that you are not really even that negatively affected if your net worth might be fluctuating a lot because of having a lot of investments in a narrow set of asset classes and maybe even concentrated in something like bitcoin, so if maybe you started investing with a goal of reaching $2million, but then if you reach $10 million to $20 million, you are just way beyond your goal.. so in those kinds of cases it might not matter as much to you if your investment value (or your net worth changes a lot).. but still there could be some assurance (psychological and financial that might be more comfortable to have some other investments rather than just one. or just a narrow set)

Is this "we" that you speak of in the room with you right now?


I believe that the supposed "vergence" was a bit of a fantasy, so the claim of a supposed "divergence" is not a very accurate assessment.

In other words, how could there be a divergence if the vergence never really existed in the first place?

#Asking for a friend.

Yes.. a lot of people have this issue, and maybe they have to figure out some kind of a way to invest less and in an ongoing kind of way in order that they recognize and appreciate BTC price dips as opportunties to buy more rather than either lessening their position or stopping their DCA (or their regular buying) right during a time frame in which they should be attempting to remain consistent and persistent in their buys.

And similar things surely may well be happening currently, when guys start to think too much in terms of the dollars that they could get by selling now, and it is really hard to know if the BTC price isn't going to keep going up and make them regret their decision.. so it is difficult to hand-hold all of the people and each person has to kind of figure out these matters for themselves, and sometimes, we can see really seemingly smart people doing dumb things when it comes to their finances, and part of the reason is because they have never really been able to live with a kind of deferred gratification mentality that they can cause to last for years and years.


I doubt that the price dynamics of bitcoin gives too many fucks about what month it happens to be. .and yeah sometimes there are various macro-factor forces that are working on pushing bitcoin's prices during certain months, but there is a lot more going on in bitcoin besides trying to figure out what it may or may not do based on what month of the year we might be in.

Maybe you guys (@Best-mary  and @MarvieJ) need to explain whatever it is that you are promoting in this thread, besides bitcoin..

In other words, what the fuck is Bitgeto?  Is it something that is legit or some kind of a shitcoin or other scam product for members to get rugpulled, scammed or otherwise robbed? 

Anyone have an explanation for why we should not be reporting these seemingly promotion posts of some unknown entity in this thread? - furthermore orchestrated through a couple of relatively newbie accounts

A quickie, but a goodie.  




Well remember 2 or 3 months ago Adam Back was specifically proclaiming (and betting) that BTC prices will reach $100k on or before the upcoming halvening.  

I don't even believe that the odds are high for such to happen, but it surely is not even out of the realm of possibilities to get something between 3x and 4x within the next 6 months or so.. and remember early to mid 2019, we had right around a 3.5x price move (from $4,200 to $13,880) in 3 months.. and golly-gee-wiz, even though it takes more money to move the BTC price when the prices are about 8x higher,

yet surely we seem to have at least 8x the interest in bitcoin and 8x the amount of money that is sloshing around to capture the number of coins that are available, which also does not seem to be an expanding phenomena in spite of some of the various attempts of not quite honest players to make more bitcoin,

which likely is frustrating to them, but also seems that it might even become more frustrating if some of them get caught with their pants down and try to present themselves as if they have more corn than they actually have, which we know that a lot of modern financial instruments allow for such "creativity", but the school of hard knocks of bitcoin (aka king daddy, aka honey badger, aka my lil precious, aka lillie fiend) may well end up punishing some of those manipulator wannabes more than they are able to sustain, especially if a large number of bitcoiners decide to exercise their rights to take custody of their own proper cornz.


It surely can be difficult for HODLers to continue to HODL when the see BTC prices like we saw in the last couple of days and even once you add up the last month or so, and so HODLers frequently get so excited and even the more self-restrained of them will sometimes be able to hold out until the new ATH or even sell within 20% or so of the ATH to the upside and conjecture that they are "killing it" when they thereafter end up getting reckt through their opportunity cost losses that are subsequently shown by their selling too much too soon.. and sure it is almost inevitable that some folks are going to become statistics.

You may well be correct Numenor... but what are your sources of information besides just suspecting that is how this valuation of reimbursements matter is going to be handled.

Your perceptions might be irreversably skewed if you believe that the quantity of people talking about them (or beginning to talk about them) is a basis of any kind of actual and/or meaningful facts. 


I think that there are some other actual factual sources besides Fillippone's when it comes to tracking some of the ideas regarding which companies are buying BTC and what are their various average BTC costs and how many BTC they hold, and surely there can be some variance between websites.. and maybe sometime they might not be updated with some of the latest purchases and/or sales.. .. and I am pretty sure that even in the very 1st few pages of that thread, there are links to several other sources of such treasuries information... not that we are talking about any treasuries besides MSTR at this point, since they do kind of overshadow so many others, they get quite a bit of attention and even a lot of haters (including misinformants - who don't mind playing loosely with facts, and hopefully you are not one of them because sometimes it quite a bit better to get some of your facts straight before you repeat inaccurate and even misleading information, merely based on other peeps saying it... and I am not even claiming that I always get things 100% correct).


I doubt that it is a good idea to consider selling at this point to be a good move, and surely some funds like that might have different trade offs that they are making.. and many of us are not (and probably should not be) fucking around with selling large amounts of our BTC stash in order to attempt to potentially buy back lower, even though I have no problem with ideas of selling on the way up whether it is for consumption or diversification into some other assets or even taking some risk off of the table as long as you are neither expecting to be able to buy back lower and/or the amount that you are selling is not meaningfully causing you to be ill-prepared for various UP scenarios that may well end up playing out after your points of selling.


Interesting.

Does not necessarily mean that we are going to get any meaningful correction any time soon. 

Maybe we will?

Maybe we won't?


It seems that now you are either moving the goal posts and/or are adding more facts.. but even besides that.. I did not even really say much of anything about whatever the fuck direction that you are talking about, but I was questioning when you seem to want to put king daddy in such a narrow box. and then that ends up becoming potentially less likely to play out, as I think that I already tried to suggest with my earlier post in which I mentioned that it does not seem that bitcoin goes up 20%.. in a day.. and then maybe we can look back at the month and see something close to 40%.. and then it goes up and then just gets stuck in the place that it went up to?

there are too many things going on in the world in order to make it not very great likelihood that bitcoin is going into a place of quasi-stability.. and I am not even directionally making any kind of claims, even though surely it seems that any claims should be slightly biased towards UPpity at this particular point, but there still could well be some pretty violent downity shake outs, merely because those are the kinds of dynamics that have historically played out in bitcoin, and why should we all of a sudden presume that bitcoin has gone into some kind of stable state (while in the middle of a war.. you want to presume stability.. seems like an outlier kind of a presumption.. but whatever keep on with your exacting predictions, historically, they have not really tended to play out so well for you, and I hope that you are not betting too much of your book too much on some of the preciseness of your expectations, which I do get the sense that you are playing around with those kinds of bets a wee bit too much too.. but whatever, I am not trying to take away from you being you... it is kind of interesting to see varying somewhat ornery perspectives even when they are tending to be wrong on several kinds of dynamics and even how to allocate value... and need i list those kinds of wrongnesses at this point?  I hope not.   

Sure there is a problem with people who sold on the way down, but that does not seem to be the crux of the main kinds of problems that are likely to afflict people who are fucking around with either selling too much bitcoin too soon as BTC prices are going up and even sometimes either failing to continue to DCA, stopping their DCA or cutting back on their DCA because they are trying to play UP and down waves that may well not end up taking place in such amounts that allow them to get a sufficient amount of advantage from those kinds of plays to make them worth their efforts when maybe they just need to continue accumulating BTC without trying to play the waves.

I am pretty sure that Microstrategies have average costs per BTC below $30k, and you can see the latest up update of fillippone's google spread sheet

That is also linked in the OP of fillippone's microstrategies thread.


Hi Arriemoller.


I am having trouble with the idea that BTC will jump up 20% and then just go sideways.. but sure, anything can happen, but seems like a lower end of probabilities kind of scenario.


Wow... you bought at $30 right before it dropped to $2 and then took a while to get back above $30 again.. and so yeah, those were early days...

We can witness many times in history that bitcoin ends up going into a kind of punishment mode, so those folks trying to trade it or even wait for the dip are continuously waiting, and maybe even those persons who are shorting are continuously getting reckt because they keep betting on BTC to go down and then it continues to go up.. and sure, we don't have any guarantees that bitcoin will continue to go up from here, but it is not unheard of that bitcoin does end up going into punishment mode.


Ultimately the thrust of Ruttoshi's question (or the point that he is making) does seem difficult to answer because he points out that he has a kind of plan to cut back on some of his DCA amount based on the BTC price going up so much in such a short period of time (which may or may not end up being a great idea because we cannot necessarily have high levels of confidence that the BTC price is going to correct back down from here).  And sometimes if someone fairly new to bitcoin is getting into bitcoin, they might well just be better off to just continue buying and trying NOT to predict whether the price is going to go up or down..
 and they may well just be better off continuing to buy more BTC, even if they have to pay more for it now as compared to the last 18 months of relatively discounted prices.  

Maybe the correct answer has to do when they started buying BTC and how much they had been buying... if someone comes into bitcoin and had been buying quite aggressively over the last 18 months maybe they could rest on their laurels (how much they bought already), but Ruttoshi seemed to have been saying that he just started buying at $25k, which might even assume that he has not really been buying for much longer than 6 months.. so yeah, it seems to be unclear if he would have had even been able to accumulate even close to enough BTC in such a short period of time through simple DCA based on cashflow, but if he had some circumstances in which he had reallocated some funds from some other decently sized investment portfolio, then maybe he would be in a better position to cut back some of his DCA amounts.. and yet ultimately there is no real easy answer without really knowing more of the underlying individual factors.


That is a pretty BIG assumption.   There are all kinds of ways that individuals pass through their journey to get to bitcoin, and a decent number of them either have not arrived or do not arrive because they end up getting too distracted and/or sucked into shitcoins.  


I doubt that it is necessary to buy shitcoins.. and probably not a good idea.. and even if it might be an o.k. idea, we are in a bitcoin thread, so we are generally not talking about shitcoins, except maybe to bash them, here and there along the way.


As long as we are talking about bitcoin rather than shitcoins, I agree with you.

When we are talking about what bitcoin "could do"  I think that 3.5x to 8x in a few months is not really too far out of the question, even though such a happening might well be in the below 15% probabilities.. more than 8x in 3 months would be a pretty crazy kind of thing, but also not impossible in the way that bitcoin is actually structured (you have heard of limited supply, I suppose?).. maybe the more than 8x in the next 3 months would be in the less than 2% arena... but that sounds very scary... and maybe in Armageddon times for such a thing to play out.. but still not impossible and so seems to fit within the "could do" category..


Perhaps.. and at the same time we remain in a public thread in which it seems that Bob has a lot of tendencies to be describing how he is selling quite frequently.. and even at weird times.. which surely is not that BIG of a deal for someone who is either in maintenance stages and/or even in liquidation stages.. ..

but an overwhelming majority of the world's population is not in such a place... and probably should be buying at times like these, especially if they missed the last 18 months or so, in which they could have accumulated quite a bit of corn for seemingly (relative) discount prices.. and so if some of those folks had not bought in the past 18 months, then these still seem to be buying times.. even though we are at 18 month highs right now and we might have some corrections along the way... .. but we are still within 10-20% of the 200-week moving average which historically is not really booming times in bitcoin landia.. and does not even seem to be great times for selling large amounts of BTC for long time HODLers.

Although, my own system has ended with quite a few BTC sales in the past month or so between about $27k and $35k, but still I consider my sells as kind of systematic and maintenance sales, so I don't really do large lump sum sales. . and so far I have not really done too much of that in my BTC career.. and I actually consider myself to have a pretty decently large sized cushion in which I could make those kinds of large sales if I wanted to.. but still have not figured out.. and sure I am not at the stage of wanting a ranch or a lake.. but cannot really diss on anyone in terms of getting into those kinds of properties...

And, yeah, so maybe Bob has plenty and he won't run out.. .. and each of us like have to figure out those kinds of balances, and I am personally having some dilemmas in regards to some systems that I am wanting to put in place.. maybe they could be described as legacy kinds of systems, but still can we really trust anyone else to spend our coins rather than just spending them ourselves, not spending too many so that we don't run out, but not spending too little so that we have more than we wished to have left in our holdings on the day that we pass... whiich might not be exactly known in advance.

I was thinking something differently. in regards to how we might describe this.. of course, we can look at the daily, or the three day or even the weekly, but sometimes the time frames overlap..  Sometimes it might be nice to make custom candles that begin and end at certain periods.. and sure if I knew fuck all about coding, it probably would not be too difficult to code up.

Many are calling this a $5k candle.. which surely is fair enough and surely seem to bring the $10k candles in striking distance, and I recall several times considering that even $20k candles were beginning to become possible when we were in our ATH arenas at various points in 2021.


It is like fair enough, and breaks of the price points happened so quickly that vroom had to cover 4-5 of them at one time, and trying to act as if he is not a bot, he delayed a bit.. it's the appearance of "human touch."


Gosh.

It sure seems like it.


It does feel good.. .. but it is still seeming that getting into noman's land, which I would consider to be right around $50k-ish to $85k-ish .. would really be a kind of further confirmation.. but yeah, gotta take small steps prior to getting back into the zone in which $30k to $35k further UPpity in the price is kind of "a given".. and yeah.. I said that last time.. too.. but whatever.  I am going to repeat my lil selfie... which I believe to be ongoingly directionally correct, just like stock to flow (and just like you LFC), even sometimes "we" might end up being a wee bit not correct on some of the specifics.


Lookie uie poo-ie...

Aren't you the party poop of all party poops?

You can come up with something a bit more nuanced than $30k on the one side and $70k on the other side?

We have a lot more going on than that.



no?

That's the thing, right?

So many of us get the feelings that maybe I should have had stacked harder, even if maybe we had been stacking pretty hard, but hen when the price goes shooting up, we can see why we had been stacking, so then we might end up going into retrospectively judging ourselves and considering that maybe we could have stacked a bit better... more harder.

Personally, I think that those feelings are much more intense in the earliest years of stacking.. and the more that you reach a kind of BTC portfolio maintenance stage, then you likely are going to start to feel more comfortable in whatever balances that you end up making...

I hate to go back in history, and sometimes we need to use examples from right now rather than historically what could have had happened, but one of the potential errors would be to have an income coming in.. let's say that it is around $200 per week extra that is available for stacking bitcoin, but the choice is made to only stack half with DCA and then other half holding for the dips, so if week after week comes, then if the dip is not BIG enough then maybe no purchases are made.. but then another possibility could be that NO DCA was taking place and too much of those extra funds were being held in order to buy on the dip, so a dip came and some of the funds were used, but there were still some funds available to buy for more dip, but more dip did not end up coming.


I am not sure if I can be that confident.  I am not even sure if I would say bye bye to the $20ks, but it is starting to seem like sub $20k is becoming more and more out of the question.


A bunch of whiners carrying around fantasy pipes - imagining as if if they were to be on the right side of history.  


 

Bitcoin has never been correlated with stocks or any other assets, so the extent to which you and/or anyone else believed that bullshit is upon you, and this latest move did not prove anything that was not already (or should have been) more than apparent and clear if you look back at bitcoin's price history.  

So, yeah, a  lot of people like to talk about dumb shit in regards to bitcoin's correlation and/or bitcoin is (was) not performing well enough and a bunch of baloney and sure sometimes they can take clips of time and show proof of their arguments - but the mere fact that they are able to show proof that is convincing still does not mean you should believe it, especially if you have your own eyes, you should be able to spend about 5-10 minutes looking at charts to see that there may well be short term correlation at various periods, but surely hard to argue if looking at the longer period, and yeah, maybe it could take longer than 5-10 minutes to actually better understand some of the underlying reasons why bitcoin is different and what pushes its price such  as 1) the stock to flow model, 2) the 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (in the school of thought of [ur=https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/]trace mayer's seven network effects[/url])

Our most recent price move of around $5k in a day, or even $10k in a month or so, does seem to show what many of us already suspected, even though we can never really know when or how much the UPpity bursts are going to play out.


For sure no one can really tell you the extent to which you should temper your BTC buying in terms of always striving to prepare yourself for BTC price moves of either direction, and you should have some clues regarding how close you might be to your own personal fuck you status and/or how many BTC you have accumulated up until this point in light of your other personal circumstances.  Looking at the BTC price movements remains ONLY one relatively small part of the whole formula regarding what to do, even though so many folks seem to like to place a lot of emphasis on BTC price movements.

So you have to assess where are you at exactly:

BTC Accumulation stage

early, mid  or late


BTC portfolio Maintenance stage

early, mid  or late


BTC liquidation stage

shaving off some here and there, or wanting to get rid of most of it or all of it

Many members here are likely in one of the stages of BTC accumulation.. but surely some of us have progressed into maintenance stage, so surely we are much better off when we are in maintenance stage.. and each of us has to figure out when we get to each of these stages, which will also assist us in terms of figuring out how we might want to manage our bitcoin strategy according to where we are at.

The earliest stages of BTC accumulation likely need to mostly focus on DCA and just buy no matter what.. which might include lump sum buying and even front loading the investment a bit in order to get some skin in the tame, but after you start to develop somewhat of a BTC stash, you can start to attempt to be a bit more selective in your strategy and maybe lower the DCA amount and start to hold some fiat in reserves for buying on dips.

When we get these kinds of big price moves, many of us should likely realize that we are advantaged by having already gotten in, and being in BTC we are kind of resting on our past accumulation and our past aggressiveness in having had accumulated.. so whether you start to hone back on some of your DCA buys is not necessarily easy to answer.. because sometimes momentum like this just keeps going up, so we cannot be sure when it will stop going up and/or how much the correction will be once it stops going up. and so it becomes possible that the BTC price will not correct back down below current prices.. Surely I am not going to claim to know things like that, and some people are more than willing to tell you what they think BTC prices are going to do, yet our own critical thinking skills should help to inform us that there are likely decent odds that they might not be correct in whatever they are saying are the various scenario and sometimes the extent which they put a lot of certainty upon their scenario might cause you to question how they can know with such supposed certainty... is it squiggly lines or what?  

Surely it is true when the price goes up quickly it cannot really sustain itself, but still that does not necessarily mean that it won't continue to go up even further, at least for a while.. remember in April to June 2019, BTC prices went up 3.5x in 3 months, but then ended up correcting back most of that over a month or so. and then resumed up and had a few bounces, before we got to our abnormal March 2020 crash which also just ended up being a kind of fluke.. but we could not really completely know at the time of the March 2020 fluke that it was actually a bit of a fluke.


Of course, you have to decide for yourself what you are going to do, including if you think that there might be some value to lessen your DCA or to just keep your DCA in place.. and so maybe part of the question might be how far along are you in your investment journey. .. remember it frequently will take people close to 10 years to build up to 1 years of their income, that is presuming that they are putting away 10% of their investment income, and generally, you likely need in the range of 20-30 years worth of income to reach entry-level fuck you status.. that is a stage in which you don't have to worry about working anymore and that you can have some assurance that your investments can sustain you.

I cannot exactly tell you at what point that you feel that you need to get with your bitcoin holdings (and surely what else that you have) to suggest that cutting back might be a good idea. and surely we always should have some money (dry powder) available for buying on dips.. so will the BTC price dip or not. and is it worth it to make those kinds of adjustments at this stage.. BTC accumulators are going to decide differently in their attempts to balance these kinds of matters.. and some will end up being more correct than others, but are the correct for a reason or did they just get lucky?  

Oh gawd.. that is retarded (referring to shorting bitcoin within less than 10% of the 200-week moving average and getting reckt).


What a coincidence.

They both start with "C".


Weren't you the one ominously predicting the exact opposite?


You frequently tend to sell too much too soon, but hey whatever.. no problem.. if you have extra BTC might as well sell some of them.  You can't take it with you.  Right?

Hopefully, you don't run out of cornz.

It's hard to know isn't it.  They were such degenerate gamblers that it seems sooner or later their goose was going to get cooked.

And surely CZ did not trigger their collapse in as much of a way as that overly-simplified narrative is frequently spun with way more emphasis than it deserves.  But, hey whatever, believe what you like.

I know that people have their differing strategies, yet the general ideas of trying to time the market would be to buy when the price is going down and to sell when it is going up.. .so usually you would not be buying when it is going up unless you were trying to make a lump sum buy in order to front load your buy prior to the price going up (if that's what you think the market is going to do)..

So in that regard, it does not make too much sense to DCA when the market is bullish.. except if you are just assuming that the market is going to keep going up because it is bullish, but that is not necessarily going to always be the case, and surely there are a lof of difficulties to figure out if the market is bullish or bearish.. which is part of the rationale of DCA that does not get too involved in trying to figure out if the market is bearish or bullish but only ends up focusing on whether you have discretionary income or not and then just deciding to buy based on how much of your discretionary income you want to use to buy BTC versus using it for some other purpose, such as consumption, or investing in something else versus saving it for some future purchase.


In markets and in investing, there are no guarantee to make a profit... and surely not even close to 100% guaranteed, even when it comes to an investment as great as bitcoin.  

It seems quite likely that you are quite likely to get yourself and/or someone else into trouble if you think and talk as if there are 100% guarantees in life (especially when dealing with the future).. but hey, whatever, you do you.