There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold. HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.
[snip]
So many words. So little information. Completely agree with dropt on this one: 'facts U dislike' and 'hodl' are both rather idiotic expressions, at least when used ad nauseam as is common in here, and those who use them regularly do themselves a disfavor in my opinion. And thinking the former sucks, while the latter is "innocent and fun", well, that's just the bull in you talking. Yes, you cut out my information b/c it is much more convenient for you to keep up with this bearshit line of reasoning (attempt at acting like you are more neutral than the bulls, here). I provided a decent explanation, and surely it could have been shorter and better stated. Nonetheless, I provided a logical explanation that was neither bearish nor bullish, and you attempt to negate my explanation by dismissing it as bull-ish (but conveniently, you "snip" it out so you do NOT have to be bothered with its contents). Your attempt here to oversimplify does a disservice to your assertion that I am supposedly biased by a bullish view on this FUD topic. Look, I'll try to keep it short, and I'd ask you to do the same: During the past 2, 3 months, most news about the Chinese exchanges was greeted by "FUD" in here, by and large. Now, we'd probably agree that those "news" were hardly worth the name, but they were also not what you should strictly call "FUD" -- those who posted (and discussed) the items were not necessarily trolling. I know I wasn't. So renaming FUD as "facts u dislike" was probably an attempt to counter that. I personally don't like it, but I liked it even less that discussing news events was suddenly grounds for being suspected of un-bitcoinian activities. |
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What I do see being (ab)used ad nauseam is FUD (some news I don't like? Oh yeah, FUD!), and "Facts U Dislike" to me is a counter to that. Fire with fire.  As to that, I don't really like the HODL CCMF 2DAMOON either, but you won't see me complaining. And really now, can you even remotely compare the two in frequency? That's why I am bewildered about the (feigned?) annoyance. PS: Who wrote that quote in your signature? Mat too? Right. But you also do know this is to be expected, given that this is a forum where everyone sane is at least on some level "bullish". (the only ones who aren't have to suffer from some kind of messianic complex, trying to save us from ourselves  ) |
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Seriously? Never seen anyone else using it until this particular instance. Where on earth do you see that ad nauseam? Funny how vitriolic people are because of that phrase.
I'm not vitriolic about it, but I really dislike any kind of unthoughtful, meme-y kind of speech. Or rather: I can't really take the rest serious if someone throws in meme-style speech patterns. EDIT: great, now I have "how to pronounce meme" in my head... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejSRqO74Lik |
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There is a difference between using "facts U dislike" for FUD and hodl for hold. HODL is innocent and a non-substantive form of fun.
[snip]
So many words. So little information. Completely agree with dropt on this one: 'facts U dislike' and 'hodl' are both rather idiotic expressions, at least when used ad nauseam as is common in here, and those who use them regularly do themselves a disfavor in my opinion. And thinking the former sucks, while the latter is "innocent and fun", well, that's just the bull in you talking. |
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Brilliant site. Was looking for a working price alarm webpage earlier, and there's only crap out there... sites that haven't been updated in ages, sites that still have 'mtgox' price on them... a sad picture.
Then I found yours. Sleek design, well made on-site alarm, and from my first impression, reliably updating.
Thanks!
EDIT: as I don't need SMS or calls, but would like to at least leave a small contribution, care to let me know a btc address for donations?
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Oddly choppy volume and action. Could be just the time of the day, or could be a sign it's just a whale (maybe just a shark even) playing with us.
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Shouldn't we at least make sure it breaks 475 before we start declaring victory.
pssst. we don't talk about resistances or confirmations in here. only rockets :D |
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almost:  |
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can someone explain why it just shot up?
It's the beginning of the next bubble? Unlikely. But it could be another crucial turning point, solidifying a reversal from the previous bear market. |
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That'll do pig. That'll do.
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...
When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure. Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.
Interesting. Would have guessed you'd give it a much lower value. But, yeah, that's probably my estimate as well, in a very rough "big success / slowly fizzle out / sudden catastrophic (market or technical) failure" distinction. I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ... my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that. |
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[...]
don't you have anything better to do with your life ? I can't even imagine what an empty life you have, being able to come here and waste your time and energy and nerves on a something is "doomed" is really pathetic, don't forget every minutes of your life counts, use your time wisely.... but if you want me to translate that to your understanding level, then it translates to: "get a fucking life"
I think I broke my record for fatest ignore with this idiot. Try not to rise to the bait.. you may be unknowingly providing some sick amusement. Find the ignore button and use it. Please don't repost or quote him.. and don't feed the troll. Thank you. For me, it's a tie between mah-somenumber and pedestrian. But yeah, less than a day in any case. Other accounts, like pumpkinhead guy, are trickier: lots of trolling, but the occasional insightful comment, so I really tried to keep him off the list. But I failed ultimately. Forgive me, oh Lord! |
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Valid point. I base my claim of seller exhaustion on the following observations: declining BBW, overall declining volume as price declines, and (more locally) lower volume on each progressive "crash". I do believe (and agree with you in that) that this can be temporary, and possibly more bear market will bring back the panic. I just observe that, right now, any local decline in price seems to trigger only small reactions.
I earnestly hope you are wrong, as this endless sideways movement is absolutely horrid and does not befit the typical, exciting rollercoaster-ride that is Bitcoin. If it turns out we're just breaking out of the triangle for yet another drawn-out and disappointing period of sideways stagnation, I do believe I shall shoot myself out of boredom. I talked to a lady at the bitcoin foundation member meeting two days ago (a real, live lady! double x chromosomes! at bitcoin!) (I'm kidding. lots of ladies in bitcoin.) (only about 10 to 15% I guess. great now I'm depressed :/) who said that she'd consider less volatility much preferable to the current situation. She works for a large European company that didn't integrate anything Bitcoin yet, but they seem to keep their eyes open. Not exactly 6 o'clock news (companies abhor risk, volatility = risk), but I'm just putting that out here: us traders might dislike flat periods, but big business probably doesn't mind it. |
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I enjoy the occasional ZH rant as much as anybody, but that "cars of doom" article is terrible, and the rebuttal (while being polemic as well) is imo a lot closer to the actual situation than the original. Car manufacturing is hardly a picture of health, but the idea that they produce millions of cars just to forever stow them away (in fact, we're almost running out of space on earth to store all of them, the article implies) is laughable. |
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I don't think sellers' exhaustion entirely applies to this situation, at least not yet. As demonstrated in the other thread linking to that article on blockchain analysis, there's still a crapload of ~3-month holders, most of which are presumably deep underwater, and a breakthrough of the long-term support line (as is possibly happening now, no volume as of yet though so could be false), would confirm a continuation of the bear market which, I believe, would prompt many of these hodlers to sell in hopes of buying back later on (or perhaps pulling a Veronica and leaving the game entirely).  This is, of course, not even accounting for the risk-taking traders and (possibly) whales who were expecting an upwards breakthrough and price spike, and would probably be among the first to sell now, creating enough momentum for the hodlers to follow suit. Valid point. I base my claim of seller exhaustion on the following observations: declining BBW, overall declining volume as price declines, and (more locally) lower volume on each progressive "crash". I do believe (and agree with you in that) that this can be temporary, and possibly more bear market will bring back the panic. I just observe that, right now, any local decline in price seems to trigger only small reactions. |
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You can't. You have throw away that number and compute a valid number. It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which burns .2 joule/gh at $0.1/kwh, and which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes). That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days. Now calculate.
<snip> [I wonder especially about the "Total network hash rate: NHR = 65'000'000 GH/s", is that really per second, per day, or what?] there is no way to really calculate the total hash rate, we can only estimate based on the current difficulty and the speed at which blocks are created. luck plays a role, and the hashrate estimate seems to be fluctuating between 65-85 peta hashes per second currently, so the blockchain data seems roughly close enough. (source = http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ ) And yes, that is actually 65 Trillion Quadrillion hashes per second. pretty impressive for an open-source beta project, don't you think? -also, just noticed this part Technology-dependent data:
Cost of equipment: CEQ = 2000 USD/(GH/s) (modern equipment)
[Source: @aminorex] I think that's a typo or something, should be closer to 2000 USD/(TH/s) I believe. Where are some of you (I'm looking at you, aminorex) getting your estimates from for hardware cost? I (as in: me, small time forum user with a cc) can get 1 TH/s for 1100 USD through Antminer. And I hope you don't believe for one second a large mining farm operator would pay retail prices like that, right? 1I'm not being frivolous here if I say that I think a realistic estimate for a large scale mining operation should be assumed to operate between factor 0.5 to 1 of that value (keep in in mind, Antminer sells a more or less complete product, a large miner will order the chips and do everything else himself), so my estimate would be [$550, $1100]/TH/s1And please don't respond with "those are not energy efficient enough"... the large farms are precisely set up in such a way to minimize the energy costs, so their calculation will be to find the sweet spot between lowest possible hardware cost operating under heavily reduced energy costs. |
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It looks like we are in a season with an extreme lack of sellers. It's obvious that no one is buying (at least on exchange), but with the really low recent bitcoin days destroyed trend and the miners seemingly refusing to sell at a loss, we have come to a complete stop.
I think we can make a short/intermediate bull run if we slowly start to edge upwards. I think this mainly because I think there is enough money sitting on the sidelines of exchanges to drive the price to the 600's. But without new money (god I hate repeating myself dozens of times) coming in, I could see us trading in the 450-650 range for a long time, with a slow drift back down towards 450, if a mini-bull rally didn't entice new investors.
Of course, tomorrow China could ban bitcoin exchanges or Houbi could declare itself insolvent and the bottom could fall out of this entire market.
>I think we can make a short/intermediate bull run if we slowly start to edge upwards. Agreed. I've said it a few times before, I think the most relevant observation right now is that we seem to see a) sellers' exhaustion, and b) no matching increase in buying pressure (which is different from 2013 for example). Possibly, the reversal we're in now more closely resembles early 2012 than mid 2013. >if a mini-bull rally didn't entice new investors. Agreed as well. But as you note yourself: price increase can have this funny little habit of becoming self sustaining from a certain point onwards. Probably not at 600, but say we make it to 700, and as a result the first articles keep popping up in NYT and Forbes "To our surprise, Bitcoin is recovering quite well (but we still don't trust it)", and suddenly a new wave of money flows in that takes us to 800. Wash rinse repeat. (nb: not saying that will happen for sure, but it's a possibility) |
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Man all I've been able to do is add to my ignore list as of late...I think I may have been the first to ignore that ped kid as I've been enjoying the odd quote that includes her/him that confirms my suspicions.
Let's see what Monday brings, China has been so quiet as of late on regulation...even Canada had a negative outlook from the banks recently.
I really preferred the old system, where new accounts were required to post first in the newbie section. Too bad it looks like theymos won't bring that back though. |
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this observation seems to hold for all of our price data so far. Not even in the bear market of 2011 it was broken Assuming the exponential trend, the fact is trivial (in math sense of the world). The only non-trivial point is in 2011, when the trend was down. So, we have only one informative point, which is not quite enough for a generalization.  Although I do wish your observation be true That's why I wrote Don't take it too serious, please. It's quite possibly a meaningless observation, and an even less informative extrapolation, but it will be fun at least to see if the pattern holds around early July or not. It /is/ interesting though that even in the huge bear market of 2011, at week 32 (after the ath) the price had recovered again above the mid point. But agreed, way to little data points to make a claim for any substantial statistical power. |
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Hey
One more request about new indicators:
Could you maybe replace (for example) 'Accumulation/Distribution' with 'Money Flow Index'?
I realized that on most short-to-medium time scales (e.g. looking at a few weeks, maybe month) MFI is much more useful, because it is an oscillator, while A/D is only useful in my opinion when doing very long-term analysis... and your site is mainly used for live trading and short/mid term analysis, I think.
tl;dr Please consider adding MFI (it's based on the same calculations as CMF or A/D anyway, just in oscilator form), and kick out A/D if you want to save space.
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