Technically, you are not wrong about DCA being more practiced by newer investors, yet you still seem to be implying that lump sum is better, and that new investors are stuck with an inferior choice.. which surely is not the case.

If you are someone who has accumulated capital, then surely you have more options regarding how to invest, so you can perform lump sum investing rather than DCA or even some various kinds of strategies that involve lump sum, buy on dip and DCA... but that still does not necessarily make the non-DCA strategies to be better, which partially might depend upon where the BTC price goes during the period following the starting of the investing - which some folks may or may not have better senses of where the BTC price might be going in the short-term, but even their being educated on the topic of following markets does not necessarily mean that they are going to choose the strategy that would have had ended up working better for their own personal circumstances... in other words, both experienced investors and newbies make mistakes, even though surely experience can help a lot of folks to learn not to make the same or similar mistakes, while at the same time, people will frequently admit that they have tendencies to make similar kinds of mistakes,  and sometimes not knowing how to fix their tendencies to make similar kinds of mistakes, or even some times not willing to admit that they might have been better off following a different strategy, something like DCA rather than trying to buy on dips and lump sum buying and causing themselves more mental stress than needed and also sometimes ending up doing the wrong thing because of their own putting too much in at the wrong times.

It seems to me that there is some value in terms of having at least a certain part of your investing approach to be somewhat brainless in the sense that you are investing no matter what, and you are investing a certain portion of your budget that you might adjust periodically, and you are reassessing along the way, not in ways to maximize finding ups in downs in prices but just in terms of maybe trying to eek out a bit of an advantage, without necessarily getting hung upon if you might have been able to buy more BTC if you had waited or kicking yourself for not making a larger lump sum investment when the BTC price subsequently ended up going up faster and further than you thought that it would.. which might well be reflected in BTC's performance in the past month or so but especially within the past week.


You may have addressed this point better than me, adultcrypto - because it is most likely that DCA is better for the newest of the investors, but the newest of investors frequently tend to fail/refuse to follow DCA because either they do not know about it, or they have some kinds of false gambling ideas in their head when it comes to investing they think that they have to invest in bulk and then see profits after a short period of time in order to perceive that their choice to invest was successful, which those kinds of ideas (and then putting it into the practice of over-investing from the start) are generally going to contribute towards the newbie to become more emotional about their investment than they should be.


Personally, I would not consider DCA as a back up plan, except for those who have either already reached their accumulation target or feel that they are already over invested into BTC.

For the newbie DCA should probably be the first plan, no matter what is the price, because both we are not going to know where the price is going, even if it is seeming a bit top heavy and inclining downwardly, and also we are likely only going to see that another strategy might have worked better after the fact, but then if we do not DCA into bitcoin, then we may well end up losing a lot of our opportunities to buy BTC because we are too busy trying figure out dips rather than acting (in the realm of ongoing buying).  There seem to be both financial and psychological advantages to getting a stake in BTC early and even continuing to buy BTC on the regular, even if the value of your actual BTC holdings might be in the red for several year before it starts to get into profits, and there are no guarantees that it will actually go into profits, but at the same time, if you study bitcoin, you should recognize and appreciate bitcoin as an ongoingly great asymmetric that has a lot of strong foundational properties, even though it is not guaranteed to succeed or to have some kind of a potential negative issue that is currently not very well known..

DCA likely ONLY becomes a back up strategy after you have already reached or exceed your targeted amounts, and likely those targeted amounts are likely going to be different for everyone, while at the same time, any of us who are accumulating BTC might need to be somewhat flexible in what we consider to be our targeted accumulation amount. and maybe as we continue to accumulate we revise our target and/or account for some factors that we might not have considered to be relevant when we started in our BTC accumulation journey.

Even if someone is a beginner BTC investor, my thoughts are to attempt to prepare for either BTC price direction, so even if DCA may well end up being the primary approach, there could be some lump sum buying and buying on dips included within the strategy, and surely frequently it is not easy for the beginner investor to be having funds held aside for these kinds of various contingencies, because it can sometimes take quite a few resources to engage in those kinds of preparations, which is another reason not to be fucking around with various shitcoins and diluting the amount of money that you have available to invest into the king of assets - especially when it comes to "digital monies"  or the various kinds of non-bitcoin products that are trying to get you to divert some of your value into their largely nonsense.


You might not need to be wealthy to use lump sum, but you are correct that it can be difficult for some folks who are ONLY able to put away small amounts of value to also be able to lump sum. or even to put away some extra value to be able to have available for buying BTC on dips, if such dips were to come.

I suspect that the longer that any of us are in bitcoin, maybe even if we start out with ONLY being able to perform DCA, then maybe after 3-6 years, we might start to feel that we are able to buttress various other aspects of our BTC buying in order to have funds in reserves that are building up in order that we are able to either supplement our DCA with buying on dips (and lump sums in that context) or maybe even just focusing more on buying on dips and lump summing rather than DCAing...  Many of us should be able to put ourselves into a better position (and with more flexibility) after 3-6 years buying bitcoin than we might have had been in the beginning of our BTC accumulation journey.. but surely some folk might take longer than 6 years and might even take 10-12 years or more before they start to feel that their finances are in such a place in which they are feeling that they are able to move away from DCA and to either supplement with buying on dips/lump summing or to completely stop with DCA and to mostly buy on dips and lump sum.. and then maybe even then when any of start to get out of such a Big ongoing focus on our BTC accumulation, then we start to see that we might be transitioning into more of a kind of BTC maintenance rather than being so focused on accumulating more BTC.


I don't tend to like those kinds of "buying it all at once" strategies, but surely there are people who believe in those kinds of strategies, and so even pushing those kinds of strategies as being preferable to DCA is not really contrary to the topic of this thread.

Your phrasing of the term "capital" could be misleading, even though I think that you are meaning it in the correct way, as a kind of way to manage funds and to make surt that you have more funds than to merely cover your expenses. 

In other words, sometimes people will misunderstand the use of "capital" to conclude that you need a lot of money, which truly is not the case, and the need for a lot of capital seems to be less the case in bitcoin as compared with other kinds of investments.. which surely is one of the advantages of bitcoin to be able to choose how much to put in and then how frequently to add to your bitcoin stash even if it ONLY ends up being small amounts on a fairly infrequent basis. 

It seems quite likely after 10-40 years of ongoing investing into bitcoin, even if small amounts, you would have fairly good chances to be in a better position from investing into bitcoin rather than NOT investing into bitcoin, and you may well end up in a better position than any other investment that you could have had made... at the same time, since there are not any guarantees in regards to bitcoins performance in the next 2, 4, 10 20, or 40 years, we can never really know except for figuring out an amount that we consider to be sufficiently great enough to invest into bitcoin in order to feel that we have done the right thing for ourselves.. or finances and our psychology.. and surely our psychology is likely to become even better if our bitcoin investment performs well, but we still may well be able to invest into BTC a quantity that is not so great as to cause us to fear if our investment does not perform as well as we might have had wished or even if it were to end up going to zero, which is another possibility that does not seem to be absent, but the possibility of going to zero should still be considered, even if not too likely.. but that still may well mean that we invest as aggressively as we feel comfortable, while at the same time realizing that there is a non-zero chance that our bitcoin investment could end up going to zero.


In regards to how people have knowledge in differing kinds of areas, I think that you are correct adultcrypto.  There are various ways to invest into bitcoin, but then when we get down to the financial part of investing into bitcoin, then, one of the most important things that anyone should know would be how to manage their finances, but even if someone does not really know how to manage their finances, they can learn on the job (meaning they can learn while investing), and surely the less that they know, then probably the more justification would exist for starting out with small amounts, but merely because someone feels that s/he does not hardly know anything should not mean that they should not get started.

Since each of us is responsible for our own financial decisions and actions, we should be trying to figure out how much to invest into bitcoin, if any, and how to do it, but if we choose badly in regards to either not investing enough or investing too little, then we are going to be the one to suffer the consequences, and these days even though it is likely that less than 1% of the world's population is either invested into bitcoin or even if there are more than 1%, thee overwhelming majority of the world's population is underinvested into bitcoin.

It is also likely a good idea to learn more and more about bitcoin as you are investing into it, even though you might not necessarily go wrong with continuing to invest into it without knowledge, but if you do not have very much knowledge, you are less likely to get your position size correct in order to coordinate what bitcoin is as compared with what are your various personal circumstances.. and surely bitcoin knowledge is ONLY of the 9 areas that I point out (you can see the nine items here) as in need of consideration when investing into bitcoin (and might even apply to other investments too)

That is sweet, in your own kind of a way.  I suppose.


It seems to me that we should be prepared for either direction, and wishing for down (or hoping for down) seems like such a low coiner and/or no coiner kind of a move, and surely you have been in bitcoin enough time to have had prepared for UP.. but yeah, I do understand that it takes time to accumulate including if we have cashflow that is growing, then we might not have been able to invest as much fiat (in the past) as we might be able to invest now.



me

me

me.


 

whatever.  either way.  I am not going to get my hopes up. .but if it happens, it happens.  Can never really complain about premature uppity.. or uppity happening sooner than expected.. . not saying that I had any specific time frame in mind, but it would surely be shocking if we were able to reach an ATH prior to the happening.. maybe that should be a group wish for a premature expectation that may or may not end up playing out.


Hahahahahaha

Looks just like him.


You could at least put some names on the characters in order to give it some context.  You lazy and imprecise fuck.   

There is nothing wrong with attempting to educate folks regarding the better kinds of ways to look at bitcoin, in terms of bitcoin being better as a long term investment, but surely people are going to do what they want and even likely call you a dummy for trying to tell them what to do and/or how to think about bitcoin related matters. 

Some people likely learn more quickly than others, but many times they have to figure out several of these balances for themselves, including the seeming short-sightedness in terms of fucking around with an asset class, like bitcoin that already has such a great asymmetric bet component, so why are they going to be choosing to trade and/or play around with such an asset.. probably because they think they know better or because they do not really understand very well what bitcoin is (or they don't believe what they had heard about bitcoin), and in either way, some people might learn quickly.. like within a few months or less than half a year, and other people might take several years to learn, and surely there are also going to be some who never learn, and it does not even mean that we are going to be able to convince them otherwise, and so in that regard, some of their learning may well have to come from within them and through their experiences rather than hearing it from someone else about whom they might have their own skepticism regarding either the level of knowledge that some of us might have or that they might also consider that several of us are overly biased and we are talking our book. 

I know quite a few people in the real world who seem to respect my opinion and frequently want to talk to me about bitcoin and various other financial matters to get my opinion, so it seems that they respect my opinion and my judgement in a variety of financial, economic assessment matters, but they still fail/refuse to take any stake in bitcoin... seems ridiculous to me that I continue to talk to these people and they see bitcoin eating the lunch of various traditional investment strategies, but they still fail/refuse to even take a somewhat small position of something like 1% of their already existing investment portfolio. 

I even know someone who somewhat followed my suggestion to buy bitcoin regularly, and even though i suggested $100 per week, this person invested $50 per week for a bit more than 2 years (since about the middle of 2021), and so recently, the person cashed out a bunch of it because it was 5% or 10% in profits.. just so ridiculous. when I had made it abundantly clear that the person should be thinking 4-10 years or more... and they clearly could have afforded $100 per week, but they chose $50 per week, which should have made it even easier to ignore their investment into bitcoin for 4-10 years, but instead this person had to go and fuck everything up... and this person says that s/he is continuing to invest in bitcoin and will do better this time and is  just kind of "building back" which also hardly makes any sense to me... even though it is better to be starting now rather than not starting at all, but it would have even have had been better to have had been starting out at $100 per week in mid 2021.. as I had suggested and just stuck with it.. right now where would we be with that? 

It looks like $100 per week from June 1, 2021, would have resulted in $12,600 invested and about 0.4658 BTC at this point.  Surely not a bad place to be, even if the profits are not stupendous, it still seems to be a very solid foundation for the amount invested to date, and maybe after another 5 years or so, the holdings might even have gotten above 1 BTC, even with $100 per week as an investment amount.

Sure I know some members are not able to go as high as $100 per week, and if the best you can do is $10 per week, then $10 per week is better than nothing and it could be possible that you might be able to work your way up to $100 per week or even to be able to do something in between, while at the same time, it is important NOT to do more than you are able to do merely based on what someone else is doing.  Part of the reason I had suggested my friend to be able to fairly easily do $100 per week is because s/he has plenty of resources, a house, and a good job in the west and goes on several vacations trips every year..even cutting out one of the trips would likely get close to funding the whole bitcoin investment for the year (which would be $5,200 for a year).

They hardly need to know shit about bitcoin in order to start to invest into it and to figure out that they are willing to hold for 4-10 years or more.   So they have to have their shit together enough in their own cashflow to ONLY be putting in money that they don't need for 4-10 years or longer.  Sure many people hardly know shit about how to manage their own finances, but they do have some ideas about whether or not the amount that they are spending is less than their income, so they should have some sense whether they have extra or not.  If they are not sure if they have extra, then they should not be investing into bitcoin because if they are not sure if they have enough, then they are gambling rather than investing.. so gambling would not be a good idea... but merely the fact that gambling is not a good idea, does not mean that anyone needs to know very much about bitcoin besides having some basic skills such as knowing the difference between gambling and investing.


I doubt that it is fair to categorize trading as if it were investing, even though some people have trading strategies that work for them, trading is mostly gambling for the vast majority of folks who have no fucking clue how to make trading a kind of sustainable income rather than a form of educated guessing that may or may not work out, which is also known as gambling rather than investing.


Why would people need to know about all of this kind of bullshit?

If you invest, then you accumulate the asset, and maybe it takes you 10 years or more to get to a place where you might switch to some strategy other than accumulating, depending on if you are starting with a lump sum or if you are only able to invest from your salary in small amounts maybe even 10% of your income in a kind of DCA strategy... but still that is not trading but building.  It is pretty rare to be able to build your position in BTC by selling rather than focusing on various ways of buying.. especially in the beginning accumulating years that may also take 10 years or longer to go from zero to having maybe 1 years worth of salary/expenses invested into bitcoin... so why fuck around with trading if you don't even have a whole years worth of investment into it?  Maybe we can assume that some people are starting out with more, but I would hate to just assume it rather than going with the idea that most people are starting with little and building up..

and you do that building up of your BTC stash by buying, not fucking around with trying to trade... especially for normies, which means not being professional in terms of trading and you don't need to trade in order to invest. .that is just stupid to presume that you need to learn how to trade in order to invest.. Who is pushing out those kinds of baloney and misleading ideas?  Investing is hard enough without adding that you need to learn how to trade too.  Nearly, pure nonsense to be suggesting that.


Well, if you invested $10 per week in the last 10 years, then you would have invested a total of $5,170 and you would have accumulated 4.62 BTC.  That seems pretty good, even though the amount invested was not necessarily maximizing, but we cannot necessarily know what the budget of each person would have been, and maybe someone could have invested $100 per week rather than $10 per week, so we just 10x those numbers, and it seems pretty good to me in terms of figuring out how aggressive that a person wants to be without getting worked up about trying to figure out very many things beyond how much can they spare (per week) in their budget in order to be sufficiently aggressive, but without necessarily being overly aggressive in order to lose their money, and gambling (or trading) with the amount that you invest into bitcoin seems to be overly aggressive and not even necessary in order to potentially advantage a lot from investing in bitcoin especially if you do it for a long time, and sure it is not guaranteed, but it seems pretty damned good as a long term investment, both historically and also that it does not seem that bitcoin's investment thesis is weaker now as compared with 10 years ago, even if the upside potential might be a bit less based on BTC already having had appreciated in value nearly 100x in the past 10 years.
 

Part of the reason that you don't fuck around with any of that stuff is to build your capital.. perhaps over 10 years and then maybe consider your options after that.  If you invested $100 per week into bitcoin and you have 46.2 BTC, then why would you want to be fucking around with other strategies.  Do you think that 46.2 bitcoin is not enough bitcoin (wealth) to have after 10 years of investing and $51.7k invested?  Or do you have some other bullshit gambling (trading) recommendations for how to approach bitcoin investing?

Of course, each of us has to decide for himself/herself whether to just hold onto shitcoins or to sell them off.  I had previously disclosed that my shitcoins had fluctuated between 0.5% and 2.5% of the value of my bitcoin holdings, and so there could be times in which shitcoin holdings get up to higher amounts and then you might need to consider selling some or all of them off, but I just hung onto my various shitcoins without really much concern if they completely disappear in terms of their value or not.

So if you imagine someone who might have $10k worth of bitcoin, 0.5% and 2.5% would be $50 to $250 worth of shitcoins.. and so do you have more than that?  Maybe even $1k worth might really seem that you want to pare that amount down, but another thing would be continuing to invest into bitcoin an ignoring the shitcoins, then the shitcoins will likely become less and less of a percentage of your overall holdings, and if you bitcoin ends up getting up to $100k, then how much are your shitcoins going to be worth at that time, especially  if you might have had continued to add to the value of your bitcoin but just ignored your shitcoins.. .. so I doubt that you should be thinking that you have to convert your shitcoins into BTC unless they were to either be above a certain amount of value or if for some reason, they were to get to become above a certain amount.

It is a bit ironic how there were some pretty strong voices proclaiming that Sam was not going to see one day in jail and some other skepticism regarding the process, and now the tone is kind of changing in terms of thinking that Sam is going to get put away for a long time...and surely he does not seem to be helping himself in terms of how dumb he actually seems when he is pretty much allowed to speak, absent either some rabbit pulled out of a hat, or some kind of fluke. .. so in that regard, prior to the collapse of FTX, he was being touted as a genius (but the level of fraud was not understood)..and gosh in light of what was actually going on, he seems so foolish and so lacking in anything that is going to save him from getting quite a few years.. maybe 30 at minimum.. ?  it is still a bit difficult to know.. and also anyone else going to go down?  He has not thrown his parents under the bus yet, and I would like to see some criminal charges against those seeming connivers. 

We can never really be sure about the level of pause that seems to be taking place right now and if any kind of a further dip might end up happening from here...

and sure of course, we are still ONLY about 20% above the 200-week moving average (which is currently at $28,346), so in spite of some of the recent upward run that we have experienced, I would hardly conclude our current prices as if they were "high prices".. especially when historically the BTC price has gotten pretty extremely above the 200-week moving average.. like 3x, 5x and even more than 10x above it at various times... You can see in the referenced (linked above) chart.


Yeah, but this thread is not about DCA, even though that is what a lot of members seem to want to talk about.

It seems to me that sometimes technical analysis is part of any formula when you are trying to figure out the extent to which to buy on the dip.  Personally, I was more bothered by imthegreat's discussion of trading and selling rather than the fact that he was trying to figure out if the BTC price might be going down. because surely many of us are still trying to figure out if there might be ways to get the best of both worlds, DCA and buying the dip... and maybe in several senses, DCA is trumping buy the dip, even though you are never really going to get away from people wanting to attempt to do both and even sometimes mixing up the DCA and buy the dip ideas.


Sure, besides being off-topic in this particular thread, trading does not really tend to be a good way to invest, even though it may or may not be a good way to make money. .but we are not talking about that in this thread.. so I would say it is not 100% conclusive that everyone should not trade, so it would depend upon what kinds of objectives that you have, and sure I like to call traders dummies in a very frequent manner, because an overwhelming majority of them are likely not going to beat pure DCA, and sure there might be 10% to 30% that are able to beat DCA.. but they are likely not going to beat it by enough to really make many significant differences.. and probably quite lower than 10% are actually able to make money higher than something like DCA and/or to potentially consistently make a living, even though some of those guys will end up getting reckt if they are not sufficiently and adequately employing decent risk management and prudent practices, which sometimes they might choose short-cuts and end up screwing themselves out of their gains... anyhow the specifics of trading (and selling) is surely deviating from the thrust of this topic, even though some people might not even be in BTC accumulation phases, so they might end up also deviating more from this topic depending on where they are at in their bitcoin journey (including how much they might be accumulating whether it is regularly or just trying to identify BTC price dips).

Even though you may well be correct, isn't that still a bit philosophical and abstract... and maybe it is a point worth emphasizing for some purposes.

If we might assert that the private keys are inside of a hardware wallet, and the bitcoins are not inside of such hardware wallets, the bitcoins are in the cloud.. and  ONLY the cloud that is part of the bitcoin cloud.. no other cloud... but then anyone might argue that the bitcoins do not exist in any one place at any one time because it takes a bunch of nodes to say what is bitcoin and which bitcoins are which.. . all of the nodes may well have copies of which bitcoin are supposed to be which, but aren't some of the nodes going to sometimes get out of synch.. or maybe not be running exactly the right software to recognize what other nodes might be recognizing.  

I better stop before I even get further out of my depths. and just say, uncle... hahahaha

You sound lost.

We are not talking about selling or trading in this thread.

Woops.  Thanks for catching that. 

I started to write my 'splaining, then I started to think that maybe it is good to remain a bit ambiguous, amorphous and even potentially internally contradicting on this point.

Largely, what I was attempting to say was that I think that I have as much cash as is worth the whole amount that I had invested in bitcoin.... at least within 20%.. ..

It's like one of those kinds of claims that should maybe stay a little bit vague and perhaps even unbelievable, but it is a kind of claim to assert that with the passage of time in terms of being in the bitcoin market, the various ups and downs of the BTC market, there may well end up being more and more cash in reserves to deal with the volatility and also a kind of sense that the amount of BTC that are held become nearly like a kind of house money... even though I proclaim to have around a $1k cost basis for any of the BTC that I hold. 

I know that mileage may well vary in terms of how BTC accumulators/holders might deal with their BTC after they are mostly in a kind of maintenance stage rather than an accumulation stage.. which that is where I perceive myself to be, and i also appreciate that some folks might want to assert that anyone who has a lot of cash at this time when we are fairly low in the BTC price (like within 20%-ish of the 200-week moving average) is not bullish enough to be holding so much cash, and it kind of seems to me that just the longer that we are in bitcoin, we end up having more than enough or we get some senses regarding how much we feel that we need to make sure that we continue to have at various price points, and that seems to be where I am at... still way too many BTC, even though some people proclaim that you never can have enough BTC, and I am no Michael Saylor in terms of how I perceive him  to be overly allocating... I feel that I am overallocated to BTC, but not in the same ways that Saylor (and his company) seem to be... and yes, I can hear you (and perhaps others) proclaiming that there is no way that a person could be overallocated if he is proclaiming to have nearly as much cash on hand as he had invested into bitcoin.. which is more or less the thing that I had meant to proclaim.

And generally speaking I never really claim to be holding a lot of cash.. I think that I had made some representations that my cash was around 2.5% or something like that of my BTC holdings... and gosh I had not done the calculations recently.. and my shitcoins tend to be less than 0.5%, even though sometimes prices will fluctuate, so I might have to do a tally.. maybe at the end of the month...

Surely we might realize that the BTC prices having had gone up more than 2.2x since it's November 2022 bottom should be helpful in these kinds of matters and also that I had "suffered" from a bit of a Binance US fat thumb mistake in June 2023.. which I probably still have around 25% to 35% more cash than I would usually have had partially due to that situation... and don't get me wrong wrong, I already bought back more than 50% more than I had sold in the process of the mistake in which outstanding BTC sales orders were executed from $31k to $140k-ish, even though I think that the highest sell order that I had executed upon me was around $130k, since around that time due to some technical limitations, Binance US had not allowed BTC sell orders to get set higher than the price that mine were, even though when I reset them, they did allow me to go up to $150k.. which was the place that I had all my sell orders on other exchanges that I had been using at that time.  Is it now more clear, bitebits?  Sorry (but not sorry) for the error in my earlier word choices.


Your explanation does not really help.


That's a suckie approach too, since it comes off as a kind of white knighting that might cause some folks to puke.  You know what is "white knighting?"


Could be true, but it seems cleaner not to presume too much about what "we" might want.. but sure, use whatever words you like, when it would probably be better to express what you mean differently, to the extent that it might be a point that is worth making.

"we sure would like to get $40k by no later than November 1 - give or take 2 days."  It is not necessarily a bad point.. especially since this thread is about price movements regarding what has happened, what is happening and what might happened... so sure, I will admit that maybe, perhaps or that it could be that I am acting with too much pettiness.  As you were solder...   wwwwwwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeee away as much as you likie.

You are taking this "unknownness" in regards to BTC price movements to an even greater extreme than necessary, WatChe.

If you had not noticed, the further you move away from the current price, the lower the probability that we are going to reach that price... of course, there is a time factor too.. but since bitcoin generally projects upwardly, we have a kind of framework in which we can frame our probabilities and even attempt to account for really extreme price movements.  

I last updated my upside scenarios chart on December 16, 2021, and my downside scenarios chart on May 19, 2022

And so it is easier to make these kinds of probability assignments when the BTC is in a kind of direction. versus when it might be transitioning between one direction to another, and also it can be good to describe these kinds of probabilities in terms of both price and time, and so in that regard, it is likely that if we just take the next two years or the next 4 years, our price prediction numbers are likely going to continue to move up so higher upside scenarios are likely going to be in the range for the upside and higher lower side scenarios, and some of the lower side scenarios are likely to just fall into very low probabilities.. remember in early 2017, there were predictions for sub $500 that did not end up happening.. and remember in 2018, 2019 and even into 2020, there were predictions of sub $2k that did not happen. .and then in the past few years, there are some folks trying to predict sub $15k bitcoin, and so far it has not happened. .and it seems to be getting further and further out of reach, just like I am being a bit bold in my assertion that sub $20k is starting to become less and less likely, however, if we go below $25k, then I will likely change my assignment of probabilities on those kinds of predictions that I currently have.. which maybe currently I would suggest sub $20k to be less than 20% odds... maybe even less than 15%... but less than $10k might be less than 5% odds... so it makes a difference... not all extremes in BTC price movements are equally improbable (or probable.. depending on the direction the question is framed).


Ok.. I will bite.

As you know from the way that you framed your question, you should not be gambling with bitcoin.. instead invest in it...

but whatever, kids these days.. you have to likely go through the process of learning on your own, and hopefully you do not end up killing yourself before you learn your lesson.

So for example, buy $10 per week of bitcoin and in 10-20 years you should be set. Not guaranteed, but still.  Of course, if you can afford to do more than that would be even better, such as up to $100 per week....

but no need to overdo it.. you are young so let time work to your advantage, and stop fucking around trying to rush things.. getting rich takes time, and even if you see some examples of people getting rich quickly, it is not likely as common as you believe it to be.. so don't get distracted.. and just stay on a more prudent and practical course.. .. and yeah, you are not going to listen anyhow..

At the same time don't fuck around with shitcoins.. .. but whatever, you are going to do what you are going to do... so why waste time trying to tell you not to gamble when you already admit that you love doing it and you want to do it.. so go ahead, learn your lesson the hard way, and there are some folks who never really learn... even though they know better, they are not able to pace themselves, and instead they want to show themselves as smarter than everyone else.. .. and sometimes they live that way and they get buy and they get into their 40s and 50s and they don't got shit to show for it.. except maybe being bitter at others, and by the time they get into their 60s and if they are trying to cut back on working so much, including sometimes manual labor, they cannot do that and they are mad at the world because they still have to bust their asses just to be able to afford their lifestyle and maybe having to make cuts at an older age when they should have been cutting more in earlier years (and investing rather than gambling).

Why do you feel that you have to bring me into your little game?

Uie pooie must be missing yours truly tttttttttttttttttttttttttooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo  muchie.


A lot can happen in a week, and it is not really very surprising to have some pauses between upwards price surges.  I cannot say whether such pause is happening now and if something like $40k might end up happening within a week (oh? do we ONLY have 6 days left, since that original post was from yesterday?).. .  And, yeah, what is possible to happen is a pretty broad set as compared to what is more likely to happen.. and part of the reason that I do not fuck around with trading is that I am not even comfortable trying to educatedly guess during these kinds of times in which the BTC price is moving around a lot.

I like the idea of either lump summing and/or front loading DCA in the beginning in order to attempt to get a higher stake into BTC right from the start, and then thereafter have money for DCA and buying on dips, and sure, maybe you don't really need to buy on dips as long as you are mostly DCAing.

Otherwise, surely there can be some differences in finances, and some beginners will neither have funds available to lump sum and their finances might be in worse shape in the very beginning so they are not able to front load (meaning doing BIGGER) DCAs in the beginning... so surely each person should be attempting to take the approach to BTC that best works for them, and it may also be the case that they should look at charts in order to help to inform them how aggressive that they might be, but it is not necessarily going to tell you a lot which way the BTC price might go, even if you do look at some charts and try to figure out where we are at, where we had been and what does that mean in terms of where we might be going.  Beginners might have more difficulties with these kinds of matters, even though even longer term bitcoiners are not good at it, and even though I have been staring at bitcoin charts for nearly 10 years, I still don't like to make proclamations that are much beyond 50/50 in terms of where we might be going in the short term.

That does kind of provoke a bit of a question regarding how afraid any of us might be in terms of spending any of our BTC at times that might be less than desirable... ... I am remembering at some point in 2020 or so, I posted about never wanting to sell any BTC below $5k, and so long as the BTC price is above $5k, then it is just a matter of how much I might sell at any given time, and then how urgent that I might consider it to be to replace the BTC that I sold, for example if I am perceiving that I am selling in a dip rather than in a rip.

Replace or don't replace, and if we are starting to play the waves a bit, then aren't we always going to have plenty of cash too?  It seems that I have almost as much cash as is worth my whole BTC portfolio that is just available for me to do whatever I want, whether I buy BTC when the price dips or just keeping such cash in reserves.. so in some sense, the cash continues to build up with the passage of time, even when the BTC price is bouncing around.. even though I will admit that I was starting to feel nervous about how much cash I had once the BTC price dropped below $22k in June 2022.. so there was likely around 8 months or more that I was feeling a bit tight on cash.. which maybe if more time passes, systems can be put into place in order to create greater cushions in order to not feel as cash constrained as I was feeling between June 2022 and maybe around January/February 2023.. .but even those outrageous BIG DIPpity times of bitcoin did not feel as bad as the late 2018 dip... and even though March 2020 was a bit stressful, that did not even feel so bad since it ended up playing out pretty quickly, relatively speaking, even if there were several weeks of uncomfortableness.


Yes.  I cite my chart pretty frequently, so I keep it on predial (or is it speed dial?).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591

I am thinking that you will be a fan of my new chart too, if I ever get to posting it.

It's a bit complicated, but it provides a spending formula in reference to how close to (or far away from) the 200-week moving average the price might be... and of course, people could plug in their own numbers... and I keep talking about it, but I just haven't pulled the trigger in posting it.  Yet.


 Probably part of the key to the whole thing is to see it in light of the 200-week moving average and to realize that the amount of cushion that any of us might need between getting into entry-level fuck you status and even having some extra value to be 1.5x or 2x or even 5x fuck you status could be quite exhilarating .. even with the presumption that we can tweak around the threshold numbers if we believe that our entry level into fuck you status might be at a lower price point or perhaps at a higher price point... but even with the 200-week moving up a bit slower than anticipated, it is still getting back up to moving up $17 per day.. so we can continue to see the number of coins that we need to be in entry level fuck you status is pretty close to being on track with my chart, even though I might have to adjust it a bit, yet by the end of November 2023, we are seeing just over $32k as our 200-week moving average price which means only a bit more than 62 coins to be at entry level fuck you status (for those wanting to use $2 million as their guide),

and when just two years earlier in November 2021 we would have needed to have more than 153 coins to be at entry level fuck you status.. even though surely the BTC spot price was much higher at that time, we still should be able to appreciate that we could end up getting deceived by spot price, unless we figure out some ways to manage that.. which surely many of us may well be nervous about shaving off too many BTC, especially while we might still be building our number of coins. and your example of someone with 100 BTC surely would be someone with a decent BTC cushion and would have entered into entry-level fuck you status right around late 2022. .and event though not quite 2x entry level fuck you status, probably still should not be having a lot to worry about, even if s/he might want to completely live off his/her bitcoin with the $2million being as a guideline that produces right around $6,666 per month of passive income, meaning that s/he should feel no problems shaving off $6,666 per month, whether s/he chooses to do it month by month or yearly or quarterly or maybe choosing to do it on rips. .which is part of what my upcoming chart is supposed to be about.


That is the thing.. the actual halvening will likely take several months for the effects to be felt.. but at the same time, there could be some attempts to manipulate and/or price it in before the effects are actually felt in more concrete kinds of ways, and so I would not even be surprised if patterns might end up getting broken just to attempt to throw people off, even though in the whole scheme of things, we still might be able to take some advantages of some of the either premature ejaculations or even the purposeful dump attempts that might cause some folks to get reckt, and surely usually the BIGGER players have ways to protect themselves, they also sometimes might suffer some pretty BIG damages if they try to play around too much with the honey badger.

It is difficult to image that people are going to want to purposefully carry bitcoin with them into their death, because you could even just have some fairly straight forward instructions that you are able to guard while you are still living, but surely there is always a risk, especially with straight forward instructions that someone might end up seeing those instructions prior to your death. but I think that lawyers are already good at not opening up envelops prior to the death of the client... but sure, even with that, you never know...so maybe no one is dying with their coins on purpose, but instead they are maybe wanting to spend some of them or to have them as an emergency in case they are needed..so that even if we end up getting seriously injured or dying in an unexpected way, it was not necessarily for naught that we held that wealth under our own sole control, just in case.

And, sure you might be correct blckhawk that some of us cannot necessarily identify a cause that we would like to transfer our wealth, whether it is family members or friends or even some kind of a charitable organization that might be better than just giving back to bitcoin as a whole by dying with your coins and not giving them to anyone in specific but instead to the whole of the bitcoin community (at least the then holders)

We still realize that ongoing BTC price performance to the upside is not guaranteed, but if we do not fuck around with the amount that we invest (by using leverage and other forms of extreme risk taking), then the most that we would end up losing in the worse case scenario is 100%.. while at the same time, there seem to be decent chances of BTC prices continuing to gravitate upwardly, there are a variety of upwards scenarios that support BTC price scenarios of 10s, if not 100s, if not 1,000s, of times higher than current BTC prices, so there seems to be some logic to putting value into BTC and taking chances on bets that have decently good upside asymetry, and surely it might be good to be aggressive in terms of investing in bitcoin, yet even if some of us might decide not to be very aggressive, some of the non-aggressive persons will also end up being quite a lot better off by investing into bitcoin as opposed to choosing not to invest in bitcoin.

Think of the guy who started investing in bitcoin with $10 per week at the top of the BTC price market at $1,163  in late 2013.  He would have had invested $5,170, and he would have accumulated right around 4.62 BTC.  Sure, he might not be rich, but he has more options and he also has a pretty decent amount of value from a pretty low commitment amount..  Of course, the guy who invested 10x that $100 per week would be 10x better off with having had invested nearly $52k and with 46.2 BTC, but the one who invested 10x more may also had to have had struggled more in order to be able to invest that amount of money as compared with the one who had merely invested $10 per week, and so my point is that sometimes even whimpy investing into something like BTC could end up paying off decently well if there is a long enough timeline, and at the same time there are still no guarantees of good or great performance even though the investment thesis for bitcoin does not seem to be getting any weaker.


I think that the earlier you are in your investment, the more difficult it can be to just keep plowing away at ongoing DCA buying, such as $10 per week or $100 per week, whatever might be the chosen amount, and surely it does not get completely easier, but with the passage of time, there likely can develop increasing confidence, such as 4-10 years of DCAing into BTC could have decent potentials to add up to a decent amount of value.

While you are ongoingly and continuing to invest into bitcoin, there are likely needs to get other aspects of your life in order too, and whether you are able to increase your cashflow or to decrease your expenses, you might need to figure out ways to be moderate and maybe even reward yourself from time to time with some levels of consumption, so long as you are not completely depleting your efforts, after several years of investing, you might choose to either shave off some of you investing into bitcoin or maybe just take from other sources of income or cash reserves that you had been building up and reward yourself for your good efforts... but at the same time, you might get yourself into a bad situation if you believe you constantly need to be rewarding yourself, and there are going to be various periods of investing that even in the middle of the investment you start to feel like you need to cash out some because the asset is too volatile for your own psychology. 

Whatever you decide to do, it is probably better to plan it out rather than being impulsive, and it seems that buying on the way down and selling on the way up are the better basic ideas to stay ahead of things and let the price come to you rather than reacting.. yet since this thread is about buying strategies, we are mostly trying to consider those kinds of matters rather than the various ways that each of us likely need to make sure that we are keeping our house in good enough order that we are coming to bitcoin with a stable psychology and stable finances, and likely if we create conditions to stabilize our finances, then psychology will likely go along with those kinds of preparations.

I doubt that the status of the desperate state of mind of the claimants should be a reflection in regards to what "should be" done, and surely there is a bit of a problem in these kinds of situations in which the entity may well not have been holding value in the asset that they claimed to have on the books and the recovery of value might end up taking place in other assets, so there can be some difficulties resolving the books if the trustees are recovering value in various kinds of assets and then reflecting that value in dollars, but a decent number of claimants are wanting to receive bitcoin that may or may not end up being recovered by the trustees and may not be recovered in that form. if the value does end up being recovered.  

It is pretty sad that the value of the estate is determined from the bitcoin price at the time of the filing when a lot of the worse aspects of the crashing of the bitcoin price may even be attributable to criminal and/or fraudulent actions of that very exchange.

Many of us lay persons are not going to have a lot of information regarding what were the claims versus what were the recovered assets and if they might not even have the bitcoin to reimburse but they might have dollars or they might have property.. and sure some of that will get converted (such as the property), and most likely converted into dollars.. so then if the exchange ends up having obligations to reimburse into the asset that the claimant had there (especially the more common coins, such as bitcoin), then does the estate then need to go into the market and buy bitcoin.. maybe that would be the most just thing in this kind of case, even if they are recovering assets and converting into dollars.

At least that gives a little information about the reference.. . .not that we should necessarily be advertising any particular exchanges.. but most require KYC, and I have troubles wondering why the CEO being a female makes much if any difference, even though it is not a bad thing to have some ideas behind the operators of exchanges, to the extent we might figure that there might be some questionable practices.. but sometimes exchanges gain reputation merely from being around a long time and if there customers are not losing their coins, then that could be a good thing... of course, until they get rug pulled, which also sometimes what ends up happening.

You should not put all of your eggs in one basket, but diversification does not really count when it is done in the same sector.. especially if you know what is the leading asset, which in the case of "crypto" is bitcoin... and the rest of it is either crap or largely correlated to bitcoin, so just adding more risk onto an already risky asset... and so maybe if you are going to invest into any shitcoin, you probably would not want to put more than 10% into any of them (or even all of them in terms of your bitcoin holdings, your shitcoins should all add up to probably less than 10% of your bitcoin investment size - absent your having some kind of a deep knowledge of one of them, which may well just mean that you are scamming others, since many of the shitcoins are scams and only the insiders are making money off of scamming regular people).

If you are new to investing, then you might just have savings in bitcoin and fiat, yet as your savings grows.. and maybe bitcoin starts to constitute a decent fraction of your annual salary.. then it may be a good idea to diversify out of it, and maybe diversifying to more than just fiat.. but also maybe stocks, bonds, property, commodities, and maybe other cash equivalents (not talking about shitcoins.. and bitcoin is a kind of commodity, even though you could invest into some other commodities if you want to have some of your value in some other places)..

so yeah, you don't want to have all your eggs in one basket, but that does not mean to be stupid and buy shitcoins... while at the same time, there could be points in which your wealth grows so much that you are not really even that negatively affected if your net worth might be fluctuating a lot because of having a lot of investments in a narrow set of asset classes and maybe even concentrated in something like bitcoin, so if maybe you started investing with a goal of reaching $2million, but then if you reach $10 million to $20 million, you are just way beyond your goal.. so in those kinds of cases it might not matter as much to you if your investment value (or your net worth changes a lot).. but still there could be some assurance (psychological and financial that might be more comfortable to have some other investments rather than just one. or just a narrow set)