Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[eXPHorizon]

crap post

Antisthenes makes this Thread 0.1% less lame and annoyingly repetitive. He is a fresh opinion to this linedout thread.. Everyone here is just a broken record.....

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[OutOfMemory]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Expos%C3%A9

The Exposé (formerly known as The Daily Exposé)[3] is a British conspiracist and fake news website created in 2020 by Jonathan Allen-Walker.[1][2] It is known for publishing COVID-19 and anti-vaccine misinformation.[7]

The website became known internationally after Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro cited one of its articles in a speech falsely claiming that COVID-19 vaccines could cause AIDS,[3][2] and after Chinese state media outlets republished one of its articles which falsely claimed that COVID-19 was created by Moderna.[2][6]

You dare to post a wikipedia source?
Don't you know it is a misinformation site based on lies to obfuscate the existence of the reptilian people, who rule over us human servants, while hidden inside the hollow earth? I know, because some dude my friend knows on telegram told me  

EDIT: Seems like EXPhorizon and Antisthenes are ready for their first date.
Awwwwww. Sooo cute.

* OutOfMemory whistles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNC0kIzM1Fo

Don't think i can't be toxic

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Gentlemen.... It is time....

Yes finally it's the time.
Bye Bye 30k
40k you are next !!!

Kick the tires and light the fires. It’s go time!

To the moon my friend, to the moon

Gentlemen.... It is time....

Yes finally it's the time.
Bye Bye 30k
40k you are next !!!

I am not sure if I can be that confident.  I am not even sure if I would say bye bye to the $20ks, but it is starting to seem like sub $20k is becoming more and more out of the question.

In Bitcoin eco-system we cant say bye bye to any price. It moves so haphazardly that we cant say whats coming ahead. But for now we must enjoy the moment that Bitcoin has broken 30k$ resistance after so many attempts.  

You are taking this "unknownness" in regards to BTC price movements to an even greater extreme than necessary, WatChe.

If you had not noticed, the further you move away from the current price, the lower the probability that we are going to reach that price... of course, there is a time factor too.. but since bitcoin generally projects upwardly, we have a kind of framework in which we can frame our probabilities and even attempt to account for really extreme price movements.  

I last updated my upside scenarios chart on December 16, 2021, and my downside scenarios chart on May 19, 2022

And so it is easier to make these kinds of probability assignments when the BTC is in a kind of direction. versus when it might be transitioning between one direction to another, and also it can be good to describe these kinds of probabilities in terms of both price and time, and so in that regard, it is likely that if we just take the next two years or the next 4 years, our price prediction numbers are likely going to continue to move up so higher upside scenarios are likely going to be in the range for the upside and higher lower side scenarios, and some of the lower side scenarios are likely to just fall into very low probabilities.. remember in early 2017, there were predictions for sub $500 that did not end up happening.. and remember in 2018, 2019 and even into 2020, there were predictions of sub $2k that did not happen. .and then in the past few years, there are some folks trying to predict sub $15k bitcoin, and so far it has not happened. .and it seems to be getting further and further out of reach, just like I am being a bit bold in my assertion that sub $20k is starting to become less and less likely, however, if we go below $25k, then I will likely change my assignment of probabilities on those kinds of predictions that I currently have.. which maybe currently I would suggest sub $20k to be less than 20% odds... maybe even less than 15%... but less than $10k might be less than 5% odds... so it makes a difference... not all extremes in BTC price movements are equally improbable (or probable.. depending on the direction the question is framed).

Is there anyone here struggling with a gambling addiction? I'm only 18 years old, but my appearance and behavior has become quite concerning.

Ok.. I will bite.

As you know from the way that you framed your question, you should not be gambling with bitcoin.. instead invest in it...

but whatever, kids these days.. you have to likely go through the process of learning on your own, and hopefully you do not end up killing yourself before you learn your lesson.

So for example, buy $10 per week of bitcoin and in 10-20 years you should be set. Not guaranteed, but still.  Of course, if you can afford to do more than that would be even better, such as up to $100 per week....

but no need to overdo it.. you are young so let time work to your advantage, and stop fucking around trying to rush things.. getting rich takes time, and even if you see some examples of people getting rich quickly, it is not likely as common as you believe it to be.. so don't get distracted.. and just stay on a more prudent and practical course.. .. and yeah, you are not going to listen anyhow..

At the same time don't fuck around with shitcoins.. .. but whatever, you are going to do what you are going to do... so why waste time trying to tell you not to gamble when you already admit that you love doing it and you want to do it.. so go ahead, learn your lesson the hard way, and there are some folks who never really learn... even though they know better, they are not able to pace themselves, and instead they want to show themselves as smarter than everyone else.. .. and sometimes they live that way and they get buy and they get into their 40s and 50s and they don't got shit to show for it.. except maybe being bitter at others, and by the time they get into their 60s and if they are trying to cut back on working so much, including sometimes manual labor, they cannot do that and they are mad at the world because they still have to bust their asses just to be able to afford their lifestyle and maybe having to make cuts at an older age when they should have been cutting more in earlier years (and investing rather than gambling).

[shahzadafzal]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Expos%C3%A9

The Exposé (formerly known as The Daily Exposé)[3] is a British conspiracist and fake news website created in 2020 by Jonathan Allen-Walker.[1][2] It is known for publishing COVID-19 and anti-vaccine misinformation.[7]

The website became known internationally after Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro cited one of its articles in a speech falsely claiming that COVID-19 vaccines could cause AIDS,[3][2] and after Chinese state media outlets republished one of its articles which falsely claimed that COVID-19 was created by Moderna.[2][6]

You dare to post a wikipedia source?
Don't you know it is a misinformation site based on lies to obfuscate the existence of the reptilian people, who rule over us human servants, while hidden inside the hollow earth? I know, because some dude my friend knows on telegram told me 

EDIT: Seems like EXPhorizon and Antisthenes are ready for their first date.
Awwwwww. Sooo cute.

* OutOfMemory whistles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNC0kIzM1Fo

Don't think i can't be toxic

Research shows that people will believe anything if you add the words research shows at the start of the sentence.

[OutOfMemory]

Research shows that people will believe anything if you add the words research shows at the start of the sentence.

Fun fact: In my mother language, people are commonly using the same term for "research" and "science".
We're not a very educated bunch of folks over here, but what makes it even worse is the fact that over 25% of them are superstitious (confirmed by research).
Not joking.

[JimboToronto]

Research shows that people will believe anything if you add the words research shows at the start of the sentence.

Fun fact: In my mother language, people are commonly using the same term for "research" and "science".
We're not a very educated bunch of folks over here, but what makes it even worse is the fact that over 25% of them are superstitious (confirmed by research).
Not joking.

Is conspiracy theory a form of superstition? 

[eXPHorizon]

Mr. Always passive toxic

Read the above

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xzy887]

Buying a whole Bitcoin in 2030.

[philipma1957]

Antisthenes macho post in 3... 2... 1...  
By the way, @Antisthenes, real men are able to do things that normal men are afraid of. So feel free to go on with your teenage homophobic issues  

0.

Homophobic? I just don’t want things up my ass, thank you very much.
That said, should there be a *real* reason for doing so, I’m comfortable with my sexuality to follow through with it.
I just don’t abide with the doctors narrative regarding precaution, sorry.

Real men use fear to their advantage and overcome it - that’s why they are men.
Women on the other hand, exploit that fear to their advantage, but mostly do not overcome it - and are rather consumed by it.
In between - it’s cucks - and you are a prime example, unfortunately not the only one here.

Keep feeding the medical regime sweethearts, and whilst you’re at it, by all means - do have a vaccine!

edit:
https://expose-news.com/2023/10/25/how-todays-doctors-are-killing-their-patients/

The end result is that doctors today have compromised or abandoned their professional and personal responsibilities and have become members of a conspiracy, a cabal of murderous scientists. The best that can be said in their defence is that many are merely ignorant and are simply taking the money they are offered without asking any inconvenient questions.

First, i kind of mostly agree with that theorem of nowadays doctors, but in my view your presentation is exaggerated and extremely simplified.
Simplified, what takes me to my second point: Your primal view of mankind and polar model of gender roles. It may help to simplify, but reality is always complex. Humans tend to simplify, because it gave them some advantages in the past. This has changed with the accelerating development of the global society and economy.
Third, your assumption was rong. My colonoscopy and gastroscopy were not precautionary inspired. I had real health conditions that led to these screenings. Even better, they were both important in diagnosing the reasons and laying out therapies for these conditions.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Who was asking for 4-of-a-kind from buddy yesterday? 

buddy is a fucking comic I wanted four fours  44441 and he gave me 4 fours 34444

[OutOfMemory]

Research shows that people will believe anything if you add the words research shows at the start of the sentence.

Fun fact: In my mother language, people are commonly using the same term for "research" and "science".
We're not a very educated bunch of folks over here, but what makes it even worse is the fact that over 25% of them are superstitious (confirmed by research).
Not joking.

Is conspiracy theory a form of superstition? 

AFAIK, no.

[bitebits]

It seems that I have almost as much cash as is worth my whole BTC portfolio [...]

Wut?!

(I think you have to explain your little selfie here a bit further.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SamReomo]

We want BTC at 40k within a week! Go BTC no-one can stop you!

Is this "we" that you speak of in the room with you right now?

Nice question and I have an answer for that. The "we" that I used was not to show that I have someone else with me in the room but I was referring to the members of the forum with same thinking. Most BTC holders want to have it at $40k and that's why I said we want it to reach 40k within a week. Everyone who wants BTC to reach $40k range faster is included in that "we" which I used.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

I have to brag tho.. Been almost a Year n a half smoke free now , coffie as well but drank one yesterday but dont feel the need for it no more at all since the dart is gone.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

It seems that I have almost as much cash as is worth my whole BTC portfolio [...]

Wut?!
(I think you have to explain your little selfie here a bit further.)

Woops.  Thanks for catching that. 

I started to write my 'splaining, then I started to think that maybe it is good to remain a bit ambiguous, amorphous and even potentially internally contradicting on this point.

Largely, what I was attempting to say was that I think that I have as much cash as is worth the whole amount that I had invested in bitcoin.... at least within 20%.. ..

It's like one of those kinds of claims that should maybe stay a little bit vague and perhaps even unbelievable, but it is a kind of claim to assert that with the passage of time in terms of being in the bitcoin market, the various ups and downs of the BTC market, there may well end up being more and more cash in reserves to deal with the volatility and also a kind of sense that the amount of BTC that are held become nearly like a kind of house money... even though I proclaim to have around a $1k cost basis for any of the BTC that I hold. 

I know that mileage may well vary in terms of how BTC accumulators/holders might deal with their BTC after they are mostly in a kind of maintenance stage rather than an accumulation stage.. which that is where I perceive myself to be, and i also appreciate that some folks might want to assert that anyone who has a lot of cash at this time when we are fairly low in the BTC price (like within 20%-ish of the 200-week moving average) is not bullish enough to be holding so much cash, and it kind of seems to me that just the longer that we are in bitcoin, we end up having more than enough or we get some senses regarding how much we feel that we need to make sure that we continue to have at various price points, and that seems to be where I am at... still way too many BTC, even though some people proclaim that you never can have enough BTC, and I am no Michael Saylor in terms of how I perceive him  to be overly allocating... I feel that I am overallocated to BTC, but not in the same ways that Saylor (and his company) seem to be... and yes, I can hear you (and perhaps others) proclaiming that there is no way that a person could be overallocated if he is proclaiming to have nearly as much cash on hand as he had invested into bitcoin.. which is more or less the thing that I had meant to proclaim.

And generally speaking I never really claim to be holding a lot of cash.. I think that I had made some representations that my cash was around 2.5% or something like that of my BTC holdings... and gosh I had not done the calculations recently.. and my shitcoins tend to be less than 0.5%, even though sometimes prices will fluctuate, so I might have to do a tally.. maybe at the end of the month...

Surely we might realize that the BTC prices having had gone up more than 2.2x since it's November 2022 bottom should be helpful in these kinds of matters and also that I had "suffered" from a bit of a Binance US fat thumb mistake in June 2023.. which I probably still have around 25% to 35% more cash than I would usually have had partially due to that situation... and don't get me wrong wrong, I already bought back more than 50% more than I had sold in the process of the mistake in which outstanding BTC sales orders were executed from $31k to $140k-ish, even though I think that the highest sell order that I had executed upon me was around $130k, since around that time due to some technical limitations, Binance US had not allowed BTC sell orders to get set higher than the price that mine were, even though when I reset them, they did allow me to go up to $150k.. which was the place that I had all my sell orders on other exchanges that I had been using at that time.  Is it now more clear, bitebits?  Sorry (but not sorry) for the error in my earlier word choices.

We want BTC at 40k within a week! Go BTC no-one can stop you!

Is this "we" that you speak of in the room with you right now?

Nice question and I have an answer for that. The "we" that I used was not to show that I have someone else with me in the room but I was referring to the members of the forum with same thinking.

Your explanation does not really help.

Most BTC holders want to have it at $40k and that's why I said we want it to reach 40k within a week.

That's a suckie approach too, since it comes off as a kind of white knighting that might cause some folks to puke.  You know what is "white knighting?"

Everyone who wants BTC to reach $40k range faster is included in that "we" which I used.

Could be true, but it seems cleaner not to presume too much about what "we" might want.. but sure, use whatever words you like, when it would probably be better to express what you mean differently, to the extent that it might be a point that is worth making.

"we sure would like to get $40k by no later than November 1 - give or take 2 days."  It is not necessarily a bad point.. especially since this thread is about price movements regarding what has happened, what is happening and what might happened... so sure, I will admit that maybe, perhaps or that it could be that I am acting with too much pettiness.  As you were solder...   wwwwwwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeeee away as much as you likie.

[Biodom]

Nobody truly owns any bitcoins..because the ownership is only established when you are able to apply a correct private key in a "send" tx (via hardware device or something else), albeit validation of the private key (at some other point in time) is possible. Before that, it is all allegedly. This is in principle, of course.