 7777 |
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I think many, including myself are in a bit of disbelief or afraid to pop the cork on a Champaign bottle... or post gifs etc. lol, I'm still in a little shock and wonderment as to why the demand/price has gone up as much as it has... but hey" we'll take it!  Halving ... coins just dried up and demand stayed constant. It's baked into the algorithmic cake of bitcoin bubbliciousness. Market now needs to find a new equilibrium price point to balance new supply and demand, only thing it really knows is that equilibrium is higher than now. Then there's the other contributory effects that come into play during a rise like Veblen Good, monetary use premium, accelerated network effect, etc feeding into demand and retention of recycled supply (hoarding/saving). |
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Anybody keeping track of ETF proceedings? When is the next deadline for SEC release of latest round of excuses?
I have a sneaky feeling there may be some insider news behind some of this market action ... and there's nothing more insider than govt. agents leaking and front-running rulings that favour financial players.
I think they are gonna kick down the road for another 2 years. It will take more in the 'financial sector' imho to yell they want it first, before it will move imho. Just saying how the banking word works imho. hope I'm wrong Deciphering some of the gobble-de-gook and confused ramblings in this article suggests there is one 'deadline' at 180 days after filing (around Jan. 14th) and another more definite 'deadline' at 240 days (around March 14th). |
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Anybody keeping track of ETF proceedings? When is the next deadline for SEC release of latest round of excuses?
I have a sneaky feeling there may be some insider news behind some of this market action ... and there's nothing more insider than govt. agents leaking and front-running rulings that favour financial players.
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It is actually the Swiss that control bitcoin ... a super secret group that sits in caves under mountains and plans and plots and pulls levers to control bitcoin. What you see is all really just make believe.
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1000 ... cool but not shocking or even that surprising really, where to from here?
i) Consolidate around the $1k mark, some chance of rather deep dump also but eventually coming back to $1k mark.
ii) New ATH $1165 is now definitely on the top of the list for upside targets. From there $1500, $1800 and $2000 have to be good psych attractors also.
iii) Mad bullish (5th adoption wave) scenario is to keep trucking on the doubling trend, $1800 by end of March, $3600 mid-May, $7200 early June, $9588 blow-off top late June early July.
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Decent article, but completely disregards the 'halving' events in bitcoin's lifecycle. These events can have a profound impact on price determination and creating a new higher floor. The author wants to believe that all price action is completely attributed purely to wavering demand and adoption, and disregards 'supply' issuance (i.e., miners' ROI). Yep. There also seems to be wide body of accepted thought now that bitcoin price will skyrocket to some new high and then crash back down again ... reduced supply and increased demand almost assure that the price seeks some new higher equilibrium. What would be the contrarian trade at this point is if bitcoin went to a new high ... and didn't crash but just plateaued, and stayed there. |
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Central Banks of south pacific island nations, small african, asian and south american nations will begin buying bitcoin for settlement and reserves before any of the major nations.
Bitcoin is for the little guys to get into first, the doorways are too small for bigger players and need to grow. Grass roots growth is unstoppable for an idea who's time has come.
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Where is Loaded? I'd like some more pumps  950 not enough? I'm hammerd. Loaded returns ... can only mean one thing, $1k incoming. |
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finex doesn't trade coins, only promises for coins.
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trying to compare the data from 2013.
there seems to just be generally less volume on exchanges. even taking into account the more expensive price, are there just way more exchanges now that are spreading the volume out?
edit: where we are at now most reminds me of Oct 29th 2013 which would suggest we were about to go absolutely mental over the next month which is possible.
my only qualm is that the late 2013 bubble is the one i have the least faith in. people were buying coins because they couldn't get cash out of MtGox any other way.
stats would really help here.
what you all think?
We're not quite there yet but if this keeps trucking then it's shaping up to be the 4th great speculative adoption wave .... and in that case then here's an estimated timeline of how things will play out (back of envelope) i) we took approx. 1 year to double from ~$225 low to $450 ii) approx. 6 months to double from $450 to $900 ... iii) in 3 months time we will reach around $1800 (late March) iv) 6 weeks after that we reach around $3600 (mid May) v) 3 weeks after that we reach around $7200 (early June) vi) epic blow-off top around $9588-$9800 occurs somewhere late in June. PS: posting from General Nakamoto's headquarters inside Fort Consensus. |
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I guess you guys also forgot how 2013 ended. I will still be a bit more patient...
long, long way to go yet ... we haven't had an exchange hack, anomalous pricing across continents/exchanges or any sniff of chaos and confusion (some noobs fired up Armoury and lost coins, sheesh) ... it's all just ticking up steadily and smoothly. |
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How do you determine when a "parabolic" rise becomes unsustainable. Is there a rule of thumb, such as, "if doubling time drops to one week, then sell"?
when the doubling time is equal to (or shorter than) the average time it takes to move funds on/off exchanges then, by necessity, the exponential phase of the rise is over. |
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But what about bitcoin price??
After $1000, $3000 is around the corner, unless we have a secular double top at the previous ATH (historically about 2 weeks' affair to bust it though). I'd buy more in anticipation and keep a tight stop loss. But I don't trade. For holders, HODL!!!!11 Thanks for your assessment. It seems you're somewhat less involved currently in Bitcoin price action than most on this forum, so your calm view from further away is certainly valuable. I am just repeating myself from March-2013 with one more zero... Hey wait a moment it was 4 YEARS ago!!!! Are you sure? Time distortion can do amazing things for market timing decisions. |
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Might be time to resurrect this thread boys.
Probably needs to look into pushing out the timescale of adoption so the S-curve is not so 'steep'. And perhaps scale down final price target. Like allow 10-15 years to reach $500k coin or some such. |
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In a sense, this price is where its should have been (more or less) when BTC halved. Kinda just now catching up... good for the struggling miners who took a huge hit.
Yes, this is my best estimate too. Halving should be taking the mining floor cost to around $888 - $950 ... but we had a good run up before halving and somewhat afterwards so full benefits when amortised may finally give these prices ... it just takes a little more time. And that is the mining floor price .... monetary premium over and above mining floor can kick in with wild and unpredictable spurts at any time. masterluc wave analysis has a target of $9588-9800, on the next monetary premium adoption growth phase for instance. Other log-wave analyses that aren't so conservative have tops of $13k-19k on this next growth wave. |
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