About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.
- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long
It has been over two weeks now since your call so I wanted to revisit this one... XMR was about 0.0085 BTC when you posted that. It has been bouncing off that level and headed higher ever since, no big dumps or capitulations in sight. Do you maintain your bearish medium-term outlook? Should we be selling into this "strength"? What was the reason behind your original call? Are you just looking at technical analysis or is there something more specific behind it? Somebody is dumping Monero down - did you wake him up?  |
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It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher. [...]
Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero. Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero. Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders. Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.The only way a bitcoin whale can drive the price of Monero down is to open a significiant short position. The problem with that strategy is the interest payments which might be significiant in large position and the fact the whale is "underwater" when he start buying Moneros (he has to cover the short first). Therefore, the way a whale should play the game in my opinion is to accumulate some, then accelerate the accumulation which drives the price up but also increases the netwealth of a whale. Bear in mind, when the whale drives the price of Monero up his stake in Monero grows as well. The only problem a whale might face is the whale competition. How many xmr would you need to be classified as a whale thesedays? The number of moneroj that will ever exist on a determined period of time did not changed neither did the quantity necessary to become a whale, whatever that may be, I would consider anyone over 20,000 XMR a whale (~0.1% of the supply in 2035) My problem when the rise happened is that I had 0.1 of supply (then) and I didn't want to decrease my stash. I should have sold on peak and re-bought, but I held. Now I will never get be able to get to a holding of 20,000 XMR and will have to settle for demi-whale status. So, let there be a lesson for all: Be bold when others are fearful, buy when others sell, accumulate when others divest. There may never be another chance like this. Monero is the real deal - what you can buy now will not be affordable in future. That is all, sermon over. |
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Balance? I went about 15% in a long time go, but this means now I have ended up more than 60% XMR. I am not complaining of course, it's been an amazing investment and when I got underwater (and at times I was in some dips early on) I just bought more to average down, because I believed.
Now even a dip to just 25% of current value would only take me back even to my to my break even price, and that looks unlikely. So... next run up, I need only sell a few to simply hit pure profit. I seek not to boast, nor am I recommending this ratio at current prices.
It's just how I ended up.
Translation: XMR... FTW!
No other CC has been THIS good for long term investment - a balance of BTC / XMR is all you need, as XMR is a safe haven when BTC dips and vice versa.
I sleep well, price moves either way do not bother me because either way i am sorted.
I am a lucky chap, I guess.
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Personally, if I do pick a little up on a dip, I immediately set up a sell a little higher for most of this 'play money' as it goes back up and aim to keep increasing the stash a little and cost average down. It's a nice way to play and over time as XMR drifts up and down, you scalp a little here and there (if you're patient and not too greedy) without risking your position too much - and it adds up. XMR oscillates way more than BTC, so 5-10% here and there on a small stash of play coins is not impossible....
Yeah that's probably a reasonable way to do it, but really only works with something like XMR in it's current state-of-being... basically this is the "BTFD" strategy (funny video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4 ) It works as long as the oscillations are fairly stable, but if/when there's a Big Dip you're screwed. Go ask the ZCash early buyers how well BTFD is working for them, LOL, they're gonna be waiting forever to get back to their million-dollar coin LOL OTOH if there's a Big Dip in XMR then HODL'ers are screwed too... so... no free lunch in any case I guess. I am holding about what I want to. So, I am not selling to buy back, I am buying a few extra to sell my average down. If I buy and can't sell it, I have extra to HODL, but if the chance to sell the extra comes I am not emotionally attached to it. Works for me. And a big dip is always possible. Just make sure you have a few buys set 'just in case'. It makes holding easier if you know you have a little bonus coming because of a sudden dip. Long term Monero is a good bet, so it's not so stressful ;-) |
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Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?
It will go 10$ per week on average from now on... If it goes 5x / 10x more than that in a short period of time... make sure to gamble! ... Correction in 1-2 week from 765$ to 745$ ... Seriously? You sound very certain, please do tell on what basis you are so sure? |
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...I'd probably never have gotten into XMR so early if it wasn't for them.
Same here... I miss Aminorex's posts even just for entertainment value  As for Risto's 0.004 call awhile ago, I don't usually try to "trade" (just HODL) but on that one I'd decided to take a shot, and follow his advice, and I got totally OUT around 0.007 (I think it was), on that last downward-trend (which never did *quite* hit 0.004 did it? I think we had, what, like 0.0055?). But it was too painful not having ANY Monero anymore! I hated the feeling! Like going thru some drug withdrawal! LOL I just couldn't stand the idea of maybe missing out on the next increase while waiting for that 0.004 bottom to come... so I got back IN again with the same amount, at around 0.006 and now just gonna stick back to the simple HODL philosophy again. Trying to "time" this stuff is too hard, too stressful. Much respect to you guys who can do it, but I've come to conclusion I can't handle it, LOL SO... long story short: for what it's worth, even if Risto was "wrong" on that 0.004 call, I personally still made a little on it, dumping out at 0.007 and buying back same number of Monero at 0.006. And here we are now, back again at 0.010... so, it's all good  Agree on Aminorex, one erudite guy that is... And above 0.01 is better than I expected, so no complaints here. I am not sure it will hold all the way to Christmas, so yes, hold - but don't be afraid to place a few bids underneath, just in case... Personally, if I do pick a little up on a dip, I immediately set up a sell a little higher for most of this 'play money' as it goes back up and aim to keep increasing the stash a little and cost average down. It's a nice way to play and over time as XMR drifts up and down, you scalp a little here and there (if you're patient and not too greedy) without risking your position too much - and it adds up. XMR oscillates way more than BTC, so 5-10% here and there on a small stash of play coins is not impossible.... |
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The main point is that the exponential growth cannot last endlessly.
There is always a limiting factor that stops it.
Take an example of colony of bacteria. They multiplicate exponentially, or nearly that, as long as there is enough food supply.
Once there is more bacteria than food, the exponential growth stops.
Yes. This is why it forms an S curve. It only grows exponentially until it goes "vertical" and then it tapers off exponentially to the saturation point. Luckily Bitcoin adoption is far from going vertical, let alone reaching saturation. Exponential growth a while longer is a reasonable expectation. Well, that yet remains to be proven how reasonable assumption it is. Looking at the market cap, and looking at the prediction for the 2018, it means quite a lot of new money flowing into Bitcoin in the next two years. Not sure if the adoption will keep the necessary pace to achieve it. It does look pie in the sky right now... I'd like to see some sort of scaling consensus to make sure we don't drop back below 700 first.. 80,000 bucks in 2 years? Ahem.... A LOT of things would need to go VERY right. |
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I speculate that:
- Aminorex returns at 0.018 (or 25$).
- rpietila returns between 0.006 and 0.004
Who will we see first?
rpietila, but he'll be back talking his book again forgetting his last call was way off again as usual. But I would say we will see .018 before .004 again. I hope so... We could see a December low go Risto's direction - but I can't see 0.004. Maybe a nasty dip if BTC sorts itself out and breaks 750 (looking unlikely now, but still possible).... Either way, no .018 this year, IMHO (the GUI won't take us that high when it eventually arrives) but I still think Spring will be good - and if I had to pick one of these targets to be hit first next year - I'd agree it's .018. I'd like to see Aminorex back, I will forgive the 'Anything under 0.018 is a steal' stuff. I'll forgive Risto for his 0.006 - 0.004 prediction too. I don't think he was in a good place, to be fair. Both might be wishing they hadn't spoken, but I miss these big guns. I'd probably never have gotten into XMR so early if it wasn't for them. |
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.....
its a very complex issue.... with no clear cut right answer.
+1 This I can agree with. I have read and read as much as I can, but all I can conclude is that I don't know the right answer. |
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Look back at history and see what happened to the overall computer revolution when things moved from CP/M and DOS to Apple's GUI and ultimately Windows.
I hadn't thought about it like that..good point. Counter-argument - look at the rise of civilization. It depended on evolving from cave paintings to pictograms/hieroglyphics to alphabets. Relying on graphical icons is a regression. Textual written language is the most precise, expressive, and efficient way to communicate information. That may be correct, and I can see your point - but for the masses? It can be argued images are ubiquitous, even universal. The written word is not as accessible. Plenty of people have never read a book since school - but nearly all regularly take in images, watch TV and films. |
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XMR is showing some reversed head and shoulder pattern on the 1-day and 4-h chart, this could be a nice bullish breakout.  I think (based on hunches) it's the failure of the much-expected BTC run that is prompting people to look for fun elsewhere. It really doesn't feel like BTC will moon now - too much Segwit / possible infighting over it to fuel the run and even a dump looks possible. So, Zcrash has been allowed out to play again to the fools gallery, but the smart money sees XMR with its possible GUI 'good news' story Soon™, as well as its historic XMR /BTC inverse relationship hedge appeal, meaning we are looking sweet. However... I still think we don't moon yet. My gut feeling is we won't go much over 0.0125 if we reach that high - and even if we do, a new real run to ATH levels will not be until spring. That said - keep an eye out, coz if BTC really crashes in December? All bets are off and we might just have a better XMRmas than ever. Personally I'm range trading trying to cost average down a touch and increase my stash a little. I am pretty evenly balanced BTC / XMR, but glued to the screen. Trading this volatility is good fun whatever happens.... |
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Is no one interested in the price shenanigans?!
I know it's Thanksgiving and all that, but not all of us are Yanks ;-)
Whatever happened to 'speculation'?
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The price of Bitcoin on Huobi is like 'the price of tea in China'.
I thought you were going to point at lines on a chart, Tera? Now you're teasing, cryptically so. Point at chart lines, go on.... "Which way now, Miss?" EDIT: Chinese exchange chart lines don't count |
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The price of bitcoin is around 900 usd in India. It is just a matter of time when the rise from India spills over to other markets. In fact, the price of bitcoin have been above the other markets for some time (thanks to the cash issues I suppose). https://localbitcoins.com/country/INMy speculation is that the majority of the weak hands have been shaken out and when we prepare for bitcoin mooning we might see actually new ATH of Monero as well both in terms of fiat and bitcoins (some of the bitcoin maximalists might diversify a little). It may be, but the fundamentals simply do not support it. There is simply no way that Bitcoin, with its 1 MB blocksize limit, can make even a minuscule dent in the cash transaction market in India no matter how many large denomination Indian rupee bills are taken out of circulation by the Indian government. you should google " bitcoin unlimited " ............ Try convincing enough of the miners of that... It's still not 95%. Yet. |
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The price of bitcoin is around 900 usd in India. It is just a matter of time when the rise from India spills over to other markets. In fact, the price of bitcoin have been above the other markets for some time (thanks to the cash issues I suppose). https://localbitcoins.com/country/INMy speculation is that the majority of the weak hands have been shaken out and when we prepare for bitcoin mooning we might see actually new ATH of Monero as well both in terms of fiat and bitcoins (some of the bitcoin maximalists might diversify a little). It may be, but the fundamentals simply do not support it. There is simply no way that Bitcoin, with its 1 MB blocksize limit, can make even a minuscule dent in the cash transaction market in India no matter how many large denomination Indian rupee bills are taken out of circulation by the Indian government. Why are you so convinced that SW+LN won't scale? I think I should probably leave ArcticMine to answer that. But AFAIK most of the 'increase' in blocksize with Segwit is for Segwit superfluous stuff, it won't massively increase the block capacity for transactions. No one knows where it is taking us and my personal instinct is it won't quite be Bitcoin anymore. For me upping blocksize and just working to control spam with fees was easier and simple. With Segwit, I am not sure where it goes, I just hope it lasts for long enough to not spoil it all and allow better crypto tech to surpass it, hence my long term investment in XMR. |
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Whatever the 'reason' buy side is ramping up and coins for sale lower than it has been - volume very strong.
Bullish (for now) - and BTC seems out of steam for breaking 750 and staying over.
Will sell a few as I don't think this run will take us back up all the way, but it's a spike worth playing a little.
Maybe the GUI really is Soon™, who knows....
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I read an article that was downplaying Bitcoin by saying that their survey showed that bitcoin is used for only about 1% of e-commerce.
Considering world e-commerce is currently at $2 trillion with a projection of $4 trillion in 2020.
1% of $2 trillion is $20 billion. A $20 trillion market cap for bitcoin would be $1,300 per bitcoin. In 2020 e-commerce alone could account for $2,500 per bitcoin and there are many other uses for Bitcoin.
If only! I think you meant $20 billion. Or you need to add a few zeros and another comma to that price! |
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"Monero will be added to Coinomi in one of our upcoming releases"I guess this means by 2018  Meanwhile somebody bought 35k quickly So it's not all bad news, eh..? |
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PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
we are of the opinion that the current Bitcoin development team is not taking satisfactory steps to ensure the growth and advancement of Bitcoin in accordance with satoshi's original white paper.
Instead, Bitcoin is being transformed into a settlement layer, with high fees, and using a labyrinth of complex overlays on top of the basic system.
After years of stagnation, it has become evident that no change will occur. The current Bitcoin development team has prevented the ability to freely discuss the development of Bitcoin by tacitly supporting censorship, and outright banning of developers and community members who differ in opinion.
Since efforts by the community to resolve these problems have failed, it is necessary to resolve them with a different approach.
Sincerely,
The marjory
Fuck off anyway back on topic:
Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.
I suspected that if we passed 750 it would be the start of the ramping up and FOMO, but it is looking lacklustre. Maybe it is unmentionable OT uncertainties (ahem...) maybe it's just not going to happen but the cup and handle looked perfect and the rise has been steady for a year. I really thought it would be around now we'd see the new 2013-style run, but it's awfully quiet out there. I was thinking (as were many) that a run up was inevitable. Now I haven't a clue... The conditions are good, so why is nothing happening? A crash would no longer surprise me either, this is Bitcoin, after all. Why 750? 780 was the yearly high and critical resistance point right now, that's when the fomo will happen Only because of how long it's been taking to get convincingly over it, I guess. 780? I do hope you're right, but volume right now doesn't look like taking us there yet. |
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