[XMR] Monero Speculation

[mfqrs3]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  

You are not simply because soon after BTC will moon Monero will follow.

If you are expert trader, then yes is wize to also hold Bitcoin. If you are not and you would miss the time when BTC moons and buy Monero at that time with all your BTC, then is totally fine to have mainly XMR.

After BTC moons to buy monero is perfectly fine. Right now to own it or buy some is hmmm...not that smart for me.

[Febo]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  

You are not simply because soon after BTC will moon Monero will follow.

If you are expert trader, then yes is wize to also hold Bitcoin. If you are not and you would miss the time when BTC moons and buy Monero at that time with all your BTC, then is totally fine to have mainly XMR.

After BTC moons to buy monero is perfectly fine. Right now to own it or buy some is hmmm...not that smart for me.

That si not just fine, but is simply perfect!

But if you are me, that always fails what will happens and have no ideas when BTC orr Monero or any other crypto is at peak or at bottom is just safest to just hold Monero.

[aerbax]

Monero dev meeting highlights and transcript for Nov 27th, 2016:

https://hellomonero.com/article/monero-dev-meeting-note-highlights-and-transcript-2016-11-27

[cryptimus prime]

I am full into XMR. For me it is more risky to hold BTC. Ask yourself if you would buy it now around 750 USD?
Does it sound like there is soo much room for growth? If yes go ahead and hodl BTC, I stick to XMR.

[SolarStorm]

[...]
Monero works in mysterious ways (;-)

There is nothing mysterious about privacy.

Actually privacy ensures that some things in life remain ..mysterious

[kurious]

Balance?  I went about 15% in a long time go, but this means now I have ended up more than 60% XMR.  I am not complaining of course, it's been an amazing investment and when I got underwater (and at times I was in some dips early on) I just bought more to average down, because I believed.

Now even a dip to just 25% of current value would only take me back even to my to my break even price, and that looks unlikely.  So... next run up, I need only sell a few to simply hit pure profit.  I seek not to boast, nor am I recommending this ratio at current prices.

It's just how I ended up.  

Translation: XMR... FTW!

No other CC has been THIS good for long term investment - a balance of BTC / XMR is all you need, as XMR is a safe haven when BTC dips and vice versa.

I sleep well, price moves either way do not bother me because either way i am sorted.

I am a lucky chap, I guess.

[starmman]

I am full into XMR. For me it is more risky to hold BTC. Ask yourself if you would buy it now around 750 USD?
Does it sound like there is soo much room for growth? If yes go ahead and hodl BTC, I stick to XMR.

I'm holding both - but certainly not investing in BTC right now - BTC price is way too high in my opinion and will likely drop. If so, XMR is in a great position at its current price to rise further. When BTC drops again, I'll transfer more into BTC.

[bucktotal]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  
Been accumulating Moneroj since 2014 and been all in most of the time since then, had only 0.5BTC back then which I used to buy 250XMR first day it appeared on polo, all cryptos I have now I've made by trading over past 2.5 years, haven't bought a single satoshi/tacoshi with fiat. Today besides bit more than 5K XMR I have only 300 XMR worth of BTC and 300 XMR worth of BBR, would have 1K XMR more if I haven´t slipped on a banana while juggling with more than half of my Moneroj stash around 900k sats (got Jaxxed). And I never send more than 30% (trading funds) to the marketplace except for when I get scared - then I end up just like this nuttcase  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kM3uNMXrFMI

No you are not. I sold the bulk of my remaining XBT for a mix of XMR and CAD over 15 months ago over the 1 MB blocksize issue. I have not regretted that decision at all.

pretty awesome that you capitulated at the bottom of btc price by selling it all, since then bitcoin is now up 3x (moreso due to cadusd) - but that you're still probably up more than holding btc-xmr at my much more reasonable (but still very gambly) ratio of 75-25.

congrats 

[CoinCidental]

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher. [...]

Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero.

Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero.

Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders.


Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.

The only way a bitcoin whale can drive the price of Monero down is to open a significiant short position. The problem with that strategy is the interest payments which might be significiant in large position and the fact the whale is "underwater" when he start buying Moneros (he has to cover the short first).
Therefore, the way a whale should play the game in my opinion is to accumulate some, then accelerate the accumulation which drives the price up but also increases the netwealth of a whale. Bear in mind, when the whale drives the price of Monero up his stake in Monero grows as well.
The only problem a whale might face is the whale competition.

How many xmr would  you need to be classified as a whale thesedays?

[medusa13]

How many xmr would  you need to be classified as a whale thesedays?

[Aby Normal]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  
Been accumulating Moneroj since 2014 and been all in most of the time since then, had only 0.5BTC back then which I used to buy 250XMR first day it appeared on polo, all cryptos I have now I've made by trading over past 2.5 years, haven't bought a single satoshi/tacoshi with fiat. Today besides bit more than 5K XMR I have only 300 XMR worth of BTC and 300 XMR worth of BBR, would have 1K XMR more if I haven´t slipped on a banana while juggling with more than half of my Moneroj stash around 900k sats (got Jaxxed). And I never send more than 30% (trading funds) to the marketplace except for when I get scared - then I end up just like this nuttcase  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kM3uNMXrFMI

No you are not. I sold the bulk of my remaining XBT for a mix of XMR and CAD over 15 months ago over the 1 MB blocksize issue. I have not regretted that decision at all.

pretty awesome that you capitulated at the bottom of btc price by selling it all, since then bitcoin is now up 3x (moreso due to cadusd) - but that you're still probably up more than holding btc-xmr at my much more reasonable (but still very gambly) ratio of 75-25.

congrats 

Oh dear, 2015 was the best year for accumulating XMR, back then you could get 600-900XMR for 1BTC and that was the time when I made most of my XMR stash. Those who haven't lost faith in cryptos during the times of hopeless depression have been rewarded - especially those that recognized which altcoin has the potential to survive and follow its big brother   
Since then BTC is more than 300% up and XMR is xxxx% up and its still less than 10US$ 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  
Been accumulating Moneroj since 2014 and been all in most of the time since then, had only 0.5BTC back then which I used to buy 250XMR first day it appeared on polo, all cryptos I have now I've made by trading over past 2.5 years, haven't bought a single satoshi/tacoshi with fiat. Today besides bit more than 5K XMR I have only 300 XMR worth of BTC and 300 XMR worth of BBR, would have 1K XMR more if I haven´t slipped on a banana while juggling with more than half of my Moneroj stash around 900k sats (got Jaxxed). And I never send more than 30% (trading funds) to the marketplace except for when I get scared - then I end up just like this nuttcase  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kM3uNMXrFMI

No you are not. I sold the bulk of my remaining XBT for a mix of XMR and CAD over 15 months ago over the 1 MB blocksize issue. I have not regretted that decision at all.

pretty awesome that you capitulated at the bottom of btc price by selling it all, since then bitcoin is now up 3x (moreso due to cadusd) - but that you're still probably up more than holding btc-xmr at my much more reasonable (but still very gambly) ratio of 75-25.

congrats 

Oh dear, 2015 was the best year for accumulating XMR, back then you could get 600-900XMR for 1BTC and that was the time when I made most of my XMR stash. Those who haven't lost faith in cryptos during the times of hopeless depression have been rewarded - especially those that recognized which altcoin has the potential to survive and follow its big brother   
Since then BTC is more than 300% up and XMR is xxxx% up and its still less than 10US$ 

Indeed very early 2015 was the optimal spot to enter. However, we might be laughing the current prices also in late 2018. I would not be too surprised if that will happen so soon. Time will tell if I am right or wrong.

[kurious]

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher. [...]

Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero.

Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero.

Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders.


Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.

The only way a bitcoin whale can drive the price of Monero down is to open a significiant short position. The problem with that strategy is the interest payments which might be significiant in large position and the fact the whale is "underwater" when he start buying Moneros (he has to cover the short first).
Therefore, the way a whale should play the game in my opinion is to accumulate some, then accelerate the accumulation which drives the price up but also increases the netwealth of a whale. Bear in mind, when the whale drives the price of Monero up his stake in Monero grows as well.
The only problem a whale might face is the whale competition.

How many xmr would  you need to be classified as a whale thesedays?

The number of moneroj that will ever exist on a determined period of time did not changed neither did the quantity necessary to become a whale, whatever that may be, I would consider anyone over 20,000 XMR a whale (~0.1% of the supply in 2035)

My problem when the rise happened is that I had 0.1 of supply (then) and I didn't want to decrease my stash.

I should have sold on peak and re-bought, but I held.

Now I will never get be able to get to a holding of 20,000 XMR and will have to settle for demi-whale status.

So, let there be a lesson for all: Be bold when others are fearful, buy when others sell, accumulate when others divest.  There may never be another chance like this. Monero is the real deal - what you can buy now will not be affordable in future.  

That is all, sermon over.

[owlcatz]

My problem when the rise happened is that I had 0.1 of supply (then) and I didn't want to decrease my stash.

I should have sold on peak and re-bought, but I held.

Now I will never get be able to get to a holding of 20,000 XMR and will have to settle for demi-whale status.

So, let there be a lesson for all: Be bold when others are fearful, buy when others sell, accumulate when others divest.  There may never be another chance like this. Monero is the real deal - what you can buy now will not be affordable in future.  

That is all, sermon over.

Well put. Had a similar experience, still pissed at myself... But, now I truly know how some old bitcoiners must have felt at times!. Live and learn!

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I should have sold on peak and re-bought, but I held.

Now I will never get be able to get to a holding of 20,000 XMR and will have to settle for demi-whale status.

That's easy to say in retrospect. The bitcoiners who sold at the $150 "peak" in summer 2013 are still waiting for their chance buy back.

You will always want more. 20k is nice, but if you had it, 30k would sound so much better.

[ArticMine]

...

pretty awesome that you capitulated at the bottom of btc price by selling it all, since then bitcoin is now up 3x (moreso due to cadusd) - but that you're still probably up more than holding btc-xmr at my much more reasonable (but still very gambly) ratio of 75-25.

congrats  

The value the particular  XMR / CAD position I acquired 15 months ago is actually worth more in terms of XBT than the XBT I liquidated to obtain that position. The increase of the XMR in terms of XBT more than compensated for the decline of the CAD in terms of XBT. The hedge worked even though my timing was far from optimal.

I still believe that a mix of XMR and fiat has a higher upside and lower downside than a straight XBT position. Long term I remain very bearish on Bitcoin because I do not see a a long term resolution to the blocksize scaling question. In the short to medium term it is possible for Bitcoin to appreciate in value, but that does not change my long term bearish opinion of BItcoin, Monero of course has very significant downside risks but, unlike Bitcoin, Monero also very significant upside potential.

[toffoo]

About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.

- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long

It has been over two weeks now since your call so I wanted to revisit this one...

XMR was about 0.0085 BTC when you posted that.  It has been bouncing off that level and headed higher ever since, no big dumps or capitulations in sight.

Do you maintain your bearish medium-term outlook?  Should we be selling into this "strength"?  What was the reason behind your original call?  Are you just looking at technical analysis or is there something more specific behind it?

[Bemerand]

About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.

- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long

It has been over two weeks now since your call so I wanted to revisit this one...

XMR was about 0.0085 BTC when you posted that.  It has been bouncing off that level and headed higher ever since, no big dumps or capitulations in sight.

Do you maintain your bearish medium-term outlook?  Should we be selling into this "strength"?  What was the reason behind your original call?  Are you just looking at technical analysis or is there something more specific behind it?

I dont know about him but im all bull right now. Bull on BTC and bull on XMR

[astmandu]

...

pretty awesome that you capitulated at the bottom of btc price by selling it all, since then bitcoin is now up 3x (moreso due to cadusd) - but that you're still probably up more than holding btc-xmr at my much more reasonable (but still very gambly) ratio of 75-25.

congrats  

The value the particular  XMR / CAD position I acquired 15 months ago is actually worth more in terms of XBT than the XBT I liquidated to obtain that position. The increase of the XMR in terms of XBT more than compensated for the decline of the CAD in terms of XBT. The hedge worked even though my timing was far from optimal.

I still believe that a mix of XMR and fiat has a higher upside and lower downside than a straight XBT position. Long term I remain very bearish on Bitcoin because I do not see a a long term resolution to the blocksize scaling question. In the short to medium term it is possible for Bitcoin to appreciate in value, but that does not change my long term bearish opinion of BItcoin, Monero of course has very significant downside risks but, unlike Bitcoin, Monero also very significant upside potential.

I'm with you on being bearish on Bitcoin.  Even though it might go up in the next year or two, I can't stand using it.  I transferred some BTC from Polo to Circle pay today and it took over 2.5 hours for it to show up in my Circle account.  There is no way that will be adopted mainstream if that continues to be the case.  We want instant gratification, and results.

With that said, how quickly does XMR transactions settle?  I'm bullish on it from a trading perspective but don't have good technical comprehension of the specs. 

[iCEBREAKER]

I'm with you on being bearish on Bitcoin.  Even though it might go up in the next year or two, I can't stand using it.  I transferred some BTC from Polo to Circle pay today and it took over 2.5 hours for it to show up in my Circle account.  There is no way that will be adopted mainstream if that continues to be the case.  We want instant gratification, and results.

With that said, how quickly does XMR transactions settle?  I'm bullish on it from a trading perspective but don't have good technical comprehension of the specs.  

Honey Badger just doesn't care about all the FUD and moaning.  Never has, never will.  

Such pessimism has dogged Bitcoin from $1 to $10 to $100 to $1000, and I expect/accept the buttcoiner paradigm will endure until we get to somewhere between $10k and $100k, when central banks will use it as part of their foreign exchange reserve asset SDR basket.

If you unreasonably expect Bitcoin's trustless, resilient, decentralized consensus critical network to replace mutable, centralized 3rd party services like Visa and Paypal, that's your problem, not Bitcoin's.

How I wish I could send funds to my stock broker with BTC in 2.5 hours instead of 2.5 business days with ACH.  

And I've never had to wait 2.5 hours for Polo to send BTC, so that's probably due to Circle's conservative policy and/or variance.

Bitcoin tx broadcast instantly, so if you are gratified with that, it's fine.  Currently, we can't have instant confirmations in crypto.  The trade-offs involved preclude such crypto-magic until we get payment channels (which are coming Soon® after segwit activates).

Since the Monero network is far less secure than Bitcoin's, you must wait proportionally longer for the same degree of confirmation reliability (ie irreversibility) .

Let's very generously assume Monero has 10% of Bitcoin's blockchain security/immutability (best way to measure the different PoW is probably by how much electricity each consumes).  6 confirmations are recommended for Bitcoin so at 10 minutes each that's 1 hour.  Now multiply that by 10 to account for Monero's relative strength, and we get 6 [edit: derp] 10 hours.