Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fungus]

Stead and slow fall of price

when will it stop

Yes, you're right stead fall of price is currently happen but my prediction is that the price will increase last week which it does and my prediction this week is that the price string up from weekend.

It's gone from $350 to $335. That's not a slow fall of price, that's noise. A slow fall of price is $100 down. JimboToronto doesn't think the price is slowly falling because he commented on the price being almost the same as yesterday. If it goes back up by $15 will you say it's slowly steadily pumping?

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Stead and slow fall of price

when will it stop

Yes, you're right stead fall of price is currently happen but my prediction is that the price will increase last week which it does and my prediction this week is that the price string up from weekend.

I'm not sure whether it is worth the effort to give any benefit of the doubt to the genuineness of this "down" characterization?

If you are coming up with any kind of conclusion about "down" you seem to be looking too short term, and you need to zoom out a little bit and look at context.

Maybe I can help out a little bit?  More or less, here's our current BTC price context.


In May/June 2016, we had a run up from mid $400s to upper $700s, then we had a close to 20% downward correction that was exacerbated and extended in part due to the early August Bitfinex "hack".

Since early October, we have experienced a pretty steady uptrend and several relatively small corrections during attempts to break through the lower to mid $700s.  

Our current price range seems to be largely floating in the upper end of the range of an ongoing uptrend pressures, largely between $715 and $755 - Maybe it could make some sense to suggest "downwards" if we start breaking below $720 or $715, otherwise prices seem to currently be in an "up" and remain "up", even we are going to experience some near term dips into the lower $720s.

Where do we go from here remains another question that remains bit difficult to determine, whether you are looking at charts, fundamentals or FUD spreading.  

I am personally a tiny bit more inclined to think that continued upwards movement into the upper $700s to mid $800s is more likely than a break below $700, but I certainly would not bet the farm on any such suggestion when maybe the odds are maybe around 55% for up and around 45% for down or something like that.  By the way, once we get into the upper $700s or mid $800s, it would not be surprising to experience a pretty decent battle and downwards correction at that point (even though it is not absolutely needed in order to experience continued upwards movement, such as a 5 to 10x explosion)

So yeah, wake me up and start making tiny assertions of "down" if we break below $720, and you have permission to be more vocal about short to medium term "down" if "downwards price movements" begin to appear that $700 may be tested, again.  

We would only get into longer term discussions of "down" if it appeared that we were to be going below $550 or maybe lower, and with more than a $150 cushion, no one really seems to making those kinds of longer term "down" assertions, yet.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The bear is coming. Run for your lives.

unfortunately i agree

market understands now that segwit wont come

If it doesn't come because of opposition from the bigblockers, then this makes it apparent that they are not really interested in scaling and they probably never were. They just used scaling as an excuse for attempting a governance coup. So when scaling solutions were presented they didn't go with it and instead pretended to be dissatisfied opting for something else.

Bitcoin has no issue with this: Even if segwit doesn't pass, bitcoin's scaling will continue upwards in terms of volume as some micro-txs will be replaced by larger txs. If instead of having 0.5$ txs you have 1$ txs, transaction volume (in USD) is doubled. If you go to 5$ txs, it goes 10x, etc etc. By having more value transacted per tx, while gradually eliminating very small txs, the network will process an increasing amount of money per day. Offchain txs or sidechains and altcoins will probably cover very small micro-txs while Bitcoin goes on to scale beyond Paypal in terms of annual volume (USD).

I wouldn't have a problem with 1mb staying as it is for a while more while an increasing amount of spammy transactions get evicted. The fees are ridiculously low, even for top priority, while at low priority fees are approaching zero cents - which indicate that there is no real shortage of transaction space.

In market terms, the only people concerned about "scaling" and making bogus price associations due to "scaling", are trolls. The market knows that as Bitcoin is, is OK, no matter what happens - unless it is contentiously forked (which is the only time the market negatively reacts - and rightly so). "Scaling worries", per se, didn't bother the price rising from 200 to 800 - despite what all the trolls were saying. Why? Because scaling value can continue even at 3 tx/s, by dumping miniscule or spammy txs in favor of larger & legit txs.

Scaling scares, fee scares, "bitcoin will collapse due to mempool" scares, growth scares, price scares, post-halving hashrate scares, have all been pretty much bogus. I'm pretty confident BTC can continue at least into 2018+ with 1MB and nothing will happen - except scaling up in value and indirectly evicting low-value and spammy txs, which will go offchain/sidechain/alt-chain (supposing they are legit).

Much truth and wisdom in these words ... it was never about 'scaling' but 'governance' (they said that at the beginning).

The whole 'scaling debate' is a bogus issue designed to divide and conquer and some of the usual useful idiots have fallen for it. The techno-economic challenge is essentially whether bitcoin can increase capacity and it is doesn't even need to be capacity of transactions, ultimately as long as Bitcoin's capacity of value transacted is increasing, we're golden.

[Globb0]

Today my son drew me this picture at school. Is it a sign? or is that a black wall  

[Karartma1]

It is clear that manu are cashing out to enjoy a nice buying experience for this Black Friday. 
After the Black Friday we should go up again. 

Or, at least, that's what I hope.

[hulla]

Stead and slow fall of price

when will it stop

Yes, you're right stead fall of price is currently happen but my prediction is that the price will increase last week which it does and my prediction this week is that the price string up from weekend.

It's gone from $350 to $335. That's not a slow fall of price, that's noise. A slow fall of price is $100 down. JimboToronto doesn't think the price is slowly falling because he commented on the price being almost the same as yesterday. If it goes back up by $15 will you say it's slowly steadily pumping?

You're correct cos the price literally reduces everyday and what I know is that the price will pump up this weekend.

[soullyG]

Hey all, would love to participate in the ongoing segwit conversation that many seem to be having, but apparently the mods believe in just selectively culling whatever posts in this thread they want to remove about that topic (or any topic), without any explanation as to why.

I guess (selective, random) censorship is alive and well here.

It's for your own good, obviously! Don't want you hurting yourself thinking too much /s

On topic, I'm waiting for another high volume drop/rebound off ~$700-$710 before we start moving up in any major way.

[Killerpotleaf]

Hey all, would love to participate in the ongoing segwit conversation that many seem to be having, but apparently the mods believe in just selectively culling whatever posts in this thread they want to remove about that topic (or any topic), without any explanation as to why.

I guess (selective, random) censorship is alive and well here.

It's for your own good, obviously! Don't want you hurting yourself thinking too much /s

On topic, I'm waiting for another high volume drop/rebound off ~$700-$710 before we start moving up in any major way.

good targets.

[Paashaas]

After scrapping 500 and 1,000 rupee bank notes few weeks ago the rumor is now that the Indian goverment wants to ban imported gold 

These are extreem measures to reduce corruption and money laundering activities...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/india-to-ban-gold-importation-bitcoin-price-rally-market-shock-imminent

[Denker]

Hey all, would love to participate in the ongoing segwit conversation that many seem to be having, but apparently the mods believe in just selectively culling whatever posts in this thread they want to remove about that topic (or any topic), without any explanation as to why.

I guess (selective, random) censorship is alive and well here.

It's for your own good, obviously! Don't want you hurting yourself thinking too much /s

On topic, I'm waiting for another high volume drop/rebound off ~$700-$710 before we start moving up in any major way.

Yes another drop to the $700 level could be expected before moving up again.
Testing this level a several times before trying go for 800 or even higher seems to be needed or wanted by some market participants.
Maybe it's going to happen this weekend! Weekends often have surprised us.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Today my son drew me this picture at school. Is it a sign? or is that a black wall  

Could be a black wall but it doesn't look strong enough to stop the rocket powering through it on its moon bound mission

[Paashaas]

id like to remind everyone that

SegWit is great for Bitcoin. It brings more transaction throughput, fixes malleability, defrags the UTXO set, makes hardware wallets more secure and most importantly, it enables Lightning which will bring instant low cost Bitcoin transactions to the world. The team at BTCC have been working hard at making their exchange and mining pool services SegWit ready, and everyone else should do the same.

You are correct but people are forgetting one major thing; Bitcoin cannot go mainstream with just bigger blocks. You need something like 1gig blocks to make a shot for it, the internet cant even handle that. Hardforking from 1mb all the way up to 1gig is just a no-go zone, Lightning will fulfill that job because you really want to have high capacity when ''monkey see monkey do'' situation arrives.

Bitcoin is booming all over the globe, what will happen with the memepool with to low mb blocks if millions if not a few billion off people want to use the network? We will be seeing millions of unconfirmed txs that will lead to a more panic situation than now.

If someone doesn't like Lightning well youre are not forced to use it, you can always use the normal payment option like today...Also lots of private keys coins will be lost when millions of sheeps start to use Bitcoin. The more payment options ore layers there is the better. Look at Roostock they use another layer for there Smart Contracts using Bitcoin for security just like Kim.com with his BitCache!

Segwit followed with the Lightning network is the best possible update Bitcoin can have. Those unlimited guys are very short sighted they screaming for bigger blocks no matter what the consequences are

I want to see Bitcoin beeing used by many as possible, not because for the $$ (making $$ is sweet but it's not my 1st priority ) but to free youre self from the Zionist Jew Fiat Debt Slave Pyramide Ponzi Banking System.

[JimboToronto]

Good AM Bitcoinland.

Negligible change since yesterday... $749USD/$1011CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

It's been pretty flat this week. What will the weekend bring? Down before up? Simple move upward? More sideways?

Even if it dips, I seriously doubt it will go much below $720.

[Tzupy]

Good AM Bitcoinland.

Negligible change since yesterday... $749USD/$1011CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

It's been pretty flat this week. What will the weekend bring? Down before up? Simple move upward? More sideways?

Even if it dips, I seriously doubt it will go much below $720.

In a couple of days there should be another attempt to break resistance. If it fails to, then the uptrend will be broken and we'll test support and we'll have a boring 2017.

[Killerpotleaf]

id like to remind everyone that

SegWit is great for Bitcoin. It brings more transaction throughput, fixes malleability, defrags the UTXO set, makes hardware wallets more secure and most importantly, it enables Lightning which will bring instant low cost Bitcoin transactions to the world. The team at BTCC have been working hard at making their exchange and mining pool services SegWit ready, and everyone else should do the same.

You are correct but people are forgetting one major thing; Bitcoin cannot go mainstream with just bigger blocks. You need something like 1gig blocks to make a shot for it, the internet cant even handle that. Hardforking from 1mb all the way up to 1gig is just a no-go zone, Lightning will fulfill that job because you really want to have high capacity when ''monkey see monkey do'' situation arrives.

Bitcoin is booming all over the globe, what will happen with the memepool with to low mb blocks if millions if not a few billion off people want to use the network? We will be seeing millions of unconfirmed txs that will lead to a more panic situation than now.

If someone doesn't like Lightning well youre are not forced to use it, you can always use the normal payment option like today...Also lots of private keys coins will be lost when millions of sheeps start to use Bitcoin. The more payment options ore layers there is the better. Look at Roostock they use another layer for there Smart Contracts using Bitcoin for security just like Kim.com with his BitCache!

Segwit followed with the Lightning network is the best possible update Bitcoin can have. Those unlimited guys are very short sighted they screaming for bigger blocks no matter what the consequences are

I want to see Bitcoin beeing used by many as possible, not because for the $$ (making $$ is sweet but it's not my 1st priority ) but to free youre self from the Zionist Jew Fiat Debt Slave Pyramide Ponzi Banking System.

i agree with mostly everything you say.
but i feel that limiting blocks to 1MB does push users off chain.
I believe other cryptos will not push/force poeple off chain this way, and user might find themselves tipping with dash or somthing else, rather then go to LN...

the segwit blocking isn't about blocking segwit persay, its about blocking the direction we are headed.

sacrifice the usage of the blockchain as a trade off to keep maximal node distribution
Or
sacrifice node distribution to incress usage of the blockchain

this is the true reason why poeple have a problem with segwit, is that it locks in the idea that offchain payments are an acceptable compromise to maintain max node distribution.

some would rather sacrifice node distribution to incress usage of the blockchain. and many believe that node distribution would not be affected at all anywho, because BU provides some enhancements which greatly reduce bandwidth usage.

in the end there will be cryptos that go the LN scaling way and others that go the block size scaling way, bitcoin must compete in this environment  ( there is simply no avoiding that )

its a very complex issue.... with no clear cut right answer.

[kurious]

.....

its a very complex issue.... with no clear cut right answer.

+1

This I can agree with.  I have read and read as much as I can, but all I can conclude is that I don't know the right answer.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

id like to remind everyone that

SegWit is great for Bitcoin. It brings more transaction throughput, fixes malleability, defrags the UTXO set, makes hardware wallets more secure and most importantly, it enables Lightning which will bring instant low cost Bitcoin transactions to the world. The team at BTCC have been working hard at making their exchange and mining pool services SegWit ready, and everyone else should do the same.

You are correct but people are forgetting one major thing; Bitcoin cannot go mainstream with just bigger blocks. You need something like 1gig blocks to make a shot for it, the internet cant even handle that. Hardforking from 1mb all the way up to 1gig is just a no-go zone, Lightning will fulfill that job because you really want to have high capacity when ''monkey see monkey do'' situation arrives.

Bitcoin is booming all over the globe, what will happen with the memepool with to low mb blocks if millions if not a few billion off people want to use the network? We will be seeing millions of unconfirmed txs that will lead to a more panic situation than now.

If someone doesn't like Lightning well youre are not forced to use it, you can always use the normal payment option like today...Also lots of private keys coins will be lost when millions of sheeps start to use Bitcoin. The more payment options ore layers there is the better. Look at Roostock they use another layer for there Smart Contracts using Bitcoin for security just like Kim.com with his BitCache!

Segwit followed with the Lightning network is the best possible update Bitcoin can have. Those unlimited guys are very short sighted they screaming for bigger blocks no matter what the consequences are

I want to see Bitcoin beeing used by many as possible, not because for the $$ (making $$ is sweet but it's not my 1st priority ) but to free youre self from the Zionist Jew Fiat Debt Slave Pyramide Ponzi Banking System.

i agree with mostly everything you say.
but i feel that limiting blocks to 1MB does push users off chain.
I believe other cryptos will not push/force poeple off chain this way, and user might find themselves tipping with dash or somthing else, rather then go to LN...

the segwit blocking isn't about blocking segwit persay, its about blocking the direction we are headed.

sacrifice the usage of the blockchain as a trade off to keep maximal node distribution
Or
sacrifice node distribution to incress usage of the blockchain

this is the true reason why poeple have a problem with segwit, is that it locks in the idea that offchain payments are an acceptable compromise to maintain max node distribution.

some would rather sacrifice node distribution to incress usage of the blockchain. and many believe that node distribution would not be affected at all anywho, because BU provides some enhancements which greatly reduce bandwidth usage.

in the end there will be cryptos that go the LN scaling way and others that go the block size scaling way, bitcoin must compete in this environment  ( there is simply no avoiding that )

its a very complex issue.... with no clear cut right answer.

I might agree with you that the answer is not exactly clear; however, you seem to be framing the issue as if the onblock and offblock solutions are equal and competing proposals, which is truly not the case.

The case with seg wit is that it has gone through the early stages of consensus, development and testing, and therefore it is a yes or no vote about whether you agree to going forward with this version.  There is no other version that is competing for attention or approval.. so if you go for the other version, then that version needs to be vetted and to go through testing.. and any code that is currently out there as a supposed competing version is either sloppy, non supported or both.

[hv_]

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

It predicts a top of 80000 by end of 2018 and reaching 1Mio not before 2025...

Data are from blockchain.info




In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price increase, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

[Fakhoury]

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

Data are from blockchain.info




In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price incease, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

I believe in that chart, and here comes some questions and a small favor

1. The favor : Could you please edit the chart with time scale to see when we can hit $10K and $1MM ?

2. I believe in "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes", what makes you sure that we will hit $10K and $1MM ?

[hv_]

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

Data are from blockchain.info




In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price incease, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

I believe in that chart, and here comes some questions and a small favor

1. The favor : Could you please edit the chart with time scale to see when we can hit $10K and $1MM ?

2. I believe in "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes", what makes you sure that we will hit $10K and $1MM ?

Tech Analysis is no guarantee...

To 1. You see that there are two moves. One slow growth and sometimes hyberbolic to  2 characteristic maxima 35 and 1200. I tried to mark the 3rd in same distance, which is 80k. The run start to 80k is hard to find and so the 10k first hitting even harder...

2. alert is on only once the lower bound gets hurt