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I award this thread "Two Thumbs Fresh"!
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Speculate as to why I am wrong, but put up a shit argument like "you are wrong because you are herp derp" is somewhat poor.
Ok i 'll choose a random graph from google. Then i 'll close my eyes and point somewhere at the graph. Then what? Oh ok got it. I 'll go to mspaint and edit the graph saying "WE ARE HERE". Excuse me but i have a different view about speculation. Evidently your view includes personal attacks over any logic or data. I 'm still waiting for the arguments. Hint: Random graph edited on mspaint together with "i believe it's a bear trap" don't qualify as an argument. Wow, you really are struggling to piece this one together. /NotSureIfTrolling.jpg |
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How it come the price is raising when it has drop like a rock  Now isn't that the million dollar question  |
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What I see is every time there is a potential crash, we end up with huge buying support and it gets arrested. Sure 30-40% correction is heavy, but its surprising just how much money is sat on the sidelines waiting to pick up "cheap" coin. (discarding any theories about it being the same person trying to buy back in cheaper). So I'm not sure a crash is all that likely (plus everyone is expecting it to happen which is always the best contrarian indicator of anything) just watch what happens to PM's if/when the fed taper happens - everyone expects them to selloff, and maybe there will be a head fake, but I will (and am) putting my money on the opposite happening. So, there could be a long slow slide like a bit like the one from 32 (but never exactly the same!) or maybe just trading sideways. Some would say thats good as it gives BTC a breather for infrastructure, some say its bad because OMG I SHOULD HAVE SOLD. I don't really think it makes much difference either way, I think BTC is more like an oil tanker than a rocket to the moon. Any parabolic rises on the way are just corrections from an oversold position  [sentiment: Holding for the longest time] |
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If I had fiat on my exchange account, I'd spent half of it putting bids from $850 to $500 with step of $20.
hope you did this, or similar! |
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Speculate as to why I am wrong, but put up a shit argument like "you are wrong because you are herp derp" is somewhat poor.
Ok i 'll choose a random graph from google. Then i 'll close my eyes and point somewhere at the graph. Then what? Oh ok got it. I 'll go to mspaint and edit the graph saying "WE ARE HERE". Excuse me but i have a different view about speculation. Don't tell me, you are all about TA? I happen to think that TA is largely bunk. I'm going to instead think about the bigger picture and not forfeit long term gains chasing pennies. |
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In case there is anyone in this thread that don't read too good, I made some pictures to help explain how there might be an alternative scenario. OP Opinion  My Opinion  Just in case there is any one person in particular in any doubt, they are both opinions, and hence I am not saying one is more likely to happen than another. Just offering what I think might be the case. Speculating, so to speak, on the speculation forum of all places. Which is where I spend all of my time if you care to notice. What I like is when other people have opinions, it adds to the richness of the discussion, contrary to some people's opinion otherwise. Speculate as to why I am wrong, but put up a shit argument like "you are wrong because you are herp derp" is somewhat poor. |
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To me it looks like bear trap in awareness phase.
To me it looks like you are saying this in every dip without having a clue about what you are talking about. Bears are out tonight! U mad bro'? Go ahead, panic sell, see you on the other side (again). So someone that isn't talking about things that don't know is a bear? You should google the term again. In any case just leave it to those who know. Repeating "bear trap" or other terms that you heard some weeks ago on a forum don't add something. Your hard on for me is distasteful. Attack the argument not the man. |
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Pick a number (or several) put your order(s) in and cross your fingers |
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To me it looks like bear trap in awareness phase. Mania phase is when joe public starts buying crazy. I realise the 'financial news' can only ever be trusted so far, but if you have been paying attention its all there...
Whats all there? That Bank of America is bullish and that the Chinese are allowing people to use bitcoin at their own risk? The the whole point of bitcoin is to avoid the banks. Until now the 'institution' never took it seriously. General sentiment in the financial news of late would suggest that we are at "institutional investor" stage. Which is there on the chart OP posted. As you see just as institutions get on board (with orders of magnitude more funds to invest) there is a dip in price, this is caused because to the early adopters, that money is unimaginable wealth, and the gains they are seeing make it almost impossible for them not to take money off the table. This is all chump change to the institutions, and they know it so they take advantage. I'm curious as to why OP thinks we are in 'public' phase. How many people you speak to know about BTC? Me, not many. anecdotal sure. Your stories about why the price did X on a given day, or why one news snippet really matters more than any other. Individual article like that are written post-hoc and are about as worthwhile as any of the posts on this very forum (including this one!). Traders win and lose, and the ones that win tell themselves how great they are, and the ones that lose lick there wounds and blame rotten luck. At least the ones that lose have got it right. Me, I buy stuff I believe in and hold for the longest time. Skimming a little here and there doesn't hurt either. |
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To me it looks like bear trap in awareness phase.
To me it looks like you are saying this in every dip without having a clue about what you are talking about. Bears are out tonight! U mad bro'? Go ahead, panic sell, see you on the other side (again). |
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To me it looks like bear trap in awareness phase. Mania phase is when joe public starts buying crazy. I realise the 'financial news' can only ever be trusted so far, but if you have been paying attention its all there...
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...
I doubt there'll be enough sellers at any one point in time for you to drop $1 million into the market. Dropping $1m in a day might actually cause the speculative bubble to burst, since you'd spike the value so quickly that the speculators will panic-sell.
...
meh, $1m doesn't move the market much thesedays... |
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We have an interesting event coming up - on the next downturn, many new speculators will cash out and will demand money from exchanges. Some of the exchanges aren't going to make it.
Why would the exchanges not have the required funds to pay out? If you sell your bitcoins on an exchange, there must be a buyer with fiat on the exchange ready to buy it. They're supposed to, but all they're really doing is exchanging ExchangeBTC for ExchangeUSD and then processing withdrawals, but only for those who request it. A significant amount of money is stored on exchanges because banks suck and it takes a long while to actually move fiat around. To that significant group of people, it makes sense to keep some money on exchanges long-term for short-term trading. An exchange can have $10M in ExchangeUSD IOUs, but actually only have $5M in USD to pay out. This fractional reserve system (or in this example, probably insolvency) works so long as there isn't any kind of "bank run" on the exchange. MtGox and BTC-e (maybe BTC-e still does - Idunno) used to have "code money." That is, you could withdraw fiat and BTC in the form of GoxUSD or GoxBTC - debt notes, represented by a hash, similar to Bitcoin. You could trade these notes around, and they offered excellent advantages, but also the very serious drawback that Gox may not honor the IOUs. These IOUs, it should be noted, are effectively the same as the balance you see in your account on an exchange -- they're not necessarily representing actual money. When Gox started issuing these IOUs as a withdrawal method, there was a very slight premium over face value due to the convenience they offered. However, when Gox's future started looking uncertain, GoxUSD and GoxBTC started trading at a discount under face value. This was because the debt notes (the same as account balances in exchange accounts) may not have been fully backed by Gox's reserves. Gox eventually discontinued issuing these debt notes due to regulations. Since when were Gox a fractional reserve bank? You have proof of this? To have USD on Gox, you have to have deposited USD. Even if you deposit BTC and sell then withdraw, there was a buyer that has USD on Gox. You can imagine any convoluted scenario you like, but it all boils down to the fact that the dollars in Gox, in peoples accounts, are dollars that were deposited by one person or another. It's a closed loop, and over time as all the BTC moves back and forth Gox skims a percentage off the top. Daily volume gives you a good idea of the ballpark of how much they make. Now, if they are doing anything untoward with that cash like speculating themselves then that is a serious problem (As well as being totally stupid, because why kill the golden goose!). If the running costs are so high that they outweigh the commissions, then we have a serious problem. The only decision a rational investor has to make, is whether you believe that Gox is trustworthy. The recent move towards 'regulation' in the USA and now China looks to be a good thing in this respect. Whilst Gox isn't under US jurisdiction, I think the precedent being set here means that Japan won't be too far behind. Then we will all see whether Gox's Golden Goose is alive and well. |
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Steep and sudden selloffs (1 seller?) at precise price points to create a double top picture on a chart.
Now, I'm not saying it was aliens...
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I cant read
Don't worry, there are plenty of others that seem to have the same problem |
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(of course I only post that because I am holding, and I want 'DA MOON' hehe) ymmv
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Read between the lines, china didn't ban it. They regulated it, which means they legitimised it.
Financial news is just the btc-e troll box IRL. People post whatever they think will best help their own personal goals. So when china legitimises BTC, then the press are gonna spin it as negatively as possible to try and acquire bitcoin as cheap as they can from all the people that buy and sell based on the headlines.
Then they will make a killing when reality unfolds.
tl;dr : hold for the longest time!
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