I hope this has made you learn the hard way that it's not the best way to act.
|
|
|
Nice to see something finally happening... I really think you should contact the CLAG (see here), they will probably be of some help. And clearly you're not the one who should lead this, as a former passthrough operator and someone who defended BTCST as long as it was standing. All the best to you guys
|
|
|
Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process.
I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything. Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity? Specifically, I back test over the last 400 constant volume candles, right now that means that each candle is for price activity over a span of about 14k BTC of volume. The data used for backtesting goes back about 100 days, I don't actually find it useful to go back any farther. As someone who build models for a living (system biology), I like what you're talking about. Still, my question is : Does it work ?
|
|
|
Lesson to all ---- ESCROW with people who can't be trusted on their word !!!!
FTFY
|
|
|
My secret method : Bitcoin is awesome -> price will go up. Know what ? It works You wouldn't make a very good day trader I think I agree. I've never been convinced by the risk/rewards of daytrading anyway. Especially daytrading bitcoin. Just too small of a market, too unpredictable imo. Would be really curious to see the books of people doing it (for at least months).
|
|
|
My secret method : Bitcoin is awesome -> price will go up. Know what ? It works
|
|
|
How would you know what he's referring to?
I don't know, just my best guess. I would be happy to have sunnankar opinion on that. Hell, two years ago I was completely illiterate in economy/finance. And I love wearing tinfoil hats. So I'm sure I could very well be wrong. If JPM goes under, so does SLV. And it could drag GLD/HSBC with them. Would be a BIG shitstorm. If JPM goes under, half of the EBT cards in American goes with them. That's JPM's insurance policy. They'll be the last to fall. I agree with that, that's why I'm still using conditionals and "If this is true" kind of sentence everywhere. I have troubles seeing these houses of cards falling. But I do think they will at some point. I also have problems thinking the CFTC will throw them under the bus. But stranger things have happened.
|
|
|
What's interesting is that there's been for example Bill Murphy from gata quoting "insider" sources doing bold (crazy ? stupid ?) predictions, like 100% upside in 90 days. ( link). And from what I know he's not a "gold to the moon tomorrow" kind of analyst. Time will tell I guess. A follow up on Bill Murphy. First, his "bold predictions" were made at the beginning of August. With the breakout last three weeks, it now sounds a lot less crazy. He was in Capital Account this week, a really good interview, especially if you've never heard about him. And anyway, Lauren Lyster makes Capital Account always nice to watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxVsosT3GAwTough to know if all these manipulation allegations are 100% true, but honestly, I wouldn't be shocked (quite the opposite) as a former subscriber of Le Metropole Cafe, he's been calling for a ramp for years. what do they say about a broken clock? Well just as bitcoin doesn't turn into $1000 per coin over night, the same too applies to PMs. Patience and long term investing. No, this time it's different What he is basically implying is that other big players are squeezing them. They know they will go under, and they are fleecing them. And I guess the "major information" people are whispering should be the result of the CFTC investigation on market manipulation. If all this is true, then metals could shoot up quite fast. If JPM goes under, so does SLV. And it could drag GLD/HSBC with them. Would be a BIG shitstorm. Again, last 3 weeks action makes a big short squeeze somewhat plausible. Interesting also to note that the big moves last two weeks where on Fridays (betting on a bankruptcy during the week end ?)
|
|
|
If someone thinks that the platform is good enough to be bought, then good for them. Otherwise, let them fail. That's the best way for this community to learn that security standards need to be higher.
|
|
|
What's interesting is that there's been for example Bill Murphy from gata quoting "insider" sources doing bold (crazy ? stupid ?) predictions, like 100% upside in 90 days. ( link). And from what I know he's not a "gold to the moon tomorrow" kind of analyst. Time will tell I guess. A follow up on Bill Murphy. First, his "bold predictions" were made at the beginning of August. With the breakout last three weeks, it now sounds a lot less crazy. He was in Capital Account this week, a really good interview, especially if you've never heard about him. And anyway, Lauren Lyster makes Capital Account always nice to watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxVsosT3GAwTough to know if all these manipulation allegations are 100% true, but honestly, I wouldn't be shocked (quite the opposite)
|
|
|
Sorry guys, there's quite a long history which contradicts with you. Not saying you're wrong that other metals/commodities will also shoot up, but gold also will (and I agree that silver/gold ratio will probably go lower in the long term, for basics fundamental reasons). And no, gold is not yet in a bubble. You could argue that it was in some sort of short term bubble a year ago, like silver a year and a half ago, but it popped, and now we are at the bottom. http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/15/131430755/a-chemist-explains-why-gold-beat-out-lithium-osmium-einsteinium. This article is a good answer to the "Why Gold ?" question. Just the best properties as a store of value, selected by a long experiment (thousands of years). That's the reason why the "Gold line" is an easy push : It's an optimal choice. It is the best kind of money people have found in History*. For the comparison with say copper or silver : Try to pass borders with years of saving in silver or copper, you'll understand the issue (though silver is probably not that bad if you're not too wealthy). And I also don't think everyone and their mother own gold, that's just false. They own paper, in various forms (most of them denominated in USD). And they will be the one to suffer. Never forget, there's two component in the price of gold (or any price) : Value of gold/Value of USD. What we are seeing is not that much a rise in value of gold, it's more a loss in the value of the USD. I'm not sure USD is gonna implode btw. That's the catastrophic scenario, if they can't prevent hyperinflation. But I'm sure it'll loose a lot more value in the next decades. So yep, the price will shoot to numbers which seems totally absurds, even if the value of gold stays the same. * : And before cypherdoc comes saying that there's a better money, which is called bitcoin : Bitcoin had been created/discovered, and some of us recognize its superior properties. Now we have to wait for it to be selected by mankind.
|
|
|
Ah ah, not the worst strategy either imo. And I'm pretty sure he'll come to bitcoin at some point. Anyway, thank for the complementary opinion on Venter
|
|
|
I'm not an expert in synthetic biology, but I work in system biology and I've been to some conferences with talks about synthetic biology. I concur in saying that the first application will probably be oil productions, and that we are extremely far from biological computation.
And people don't have the biggest esteem for Craig Venter. He seems better at making big claims than deliver
|
|
|
Wow, the rabbit hole just got deeper
|
|
|
What happened to all of Cyphers supporters? Who said he was right about the big crash in the stock market and collapse in PMs that were about to doom us all.. If they don't show up pretty soon to help him out, I might have to switch sides and argue for the collapse of PM's I still support him for a stock crash/correction. But it will probably have to wait after the election
|
|
|
Regional red wine, from the south of France. The kind of stuff that makes me proud of where I live
|
|
|
Yep, this hypothesis actually makes a lot of sense imo. If true, then his creditors will have to wait a lot to get some money back, if that happens.
|
|
|
From now on there is the serious chance that PM can surpass BTC in price growth.
Without real issue for BTC, I seriously doubt it. Sure PM are set up for a nice long rally, but BTC have so much upside potential that it should easily beat the metals wait...what?
yes, the PTB will lose control of this situation
and that is when metals come into their own
I also doubt that. Lot of PM bugs thinks TPTB want a strong dollar (and thus low metal), but I disagree with that. A weak dollar helps them a lot : devalue their debt, reduce trade imbalance, make the BRICS pay of bigger price to get ze gold. Of course that's a controlled weakening, they don't want hyperinflation either, thus the correction we had after US downgrade last year. But a strong dollar is just bad for them IMO for the umpteenth time, i just don't think gold can serve its supposed function as a world reserve currency in today's day and age.
Again, the same argument Patience, Rome wasn't build in a day. For the time being, there's no real alternative.
|
|
|
Does anyone here already tried to buy coins using MrBitcoins ? Is it reliable ? Is there other easy ways to buy bitcoin in India ?
If you're from Mumbai, then we can meet in person and I can sell bitcoins to you for cash. No transfer fees or anything like that. Thanks but it is for a friend in Hyderabad. And she's not yet convinced anyway
|
|
|
|