Meh....yeah it could (but then again people said exactly the same thing last time around) or it could pan out pretty much the same way as before. I more tend towards it being a non event, coins get auctioned, bought probably close to market, maybe by a syndicate, and we will probably hear or see bugger all afterwards.

Guess we will know soon enough eitherway  

Do you think draper or the syndicate dumped?

I know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy.

I think most of the Russians, of the type you are referring to, most likely saw the haircut, threw a few vodka glasses around the place, boarded their helicopters, muttering about how they lost a few pennies, snorted some coke off of a hookers tit, before arriving home jumping out the bird, and returning home to their wives and children and scoffing caviar like it was going out of fashion.. before I dunno going out on a wild boar killing spree with vlad and vlad and vlad.  Basically a few of them would maybe have beaten a poor cypriot half to death to calm their nerves.

Part from that, they bent over and took it like the rest of the suckers that had cash in the bank they could not reach.

Interesting idea.

Risky (as in risky to your short/long term health)

right.... so if they had the cash already (i.e in the suitcase full of notes in their clutches/jet/apartment) = problem solved and no need for BTC, other than easier to carry.

If the cash is in the bank, and there are capital controls already in place  = russian mafia would have to "convince" the bank to let them get access to their cash before haircut occurs, so they could then either a) stuff it in suitcase/jet/apartment or b) buy bitcoin from a localbitcoins guy "hey dude, have you got 20 millions worth of Bitcoin? my mate sergi wants to buy them from you , and then remove your kneecaps, and relieve you of the 20 million euros he just gave you" or c) load on plane, fly to another country, deposit cash in bank and then buy bitcoin? unless of course when they were "convincing" the bank manager they also convinced him to please transfer the 20 million euros to Huboi?

So basically, unless you act before the controls are in place, or torture a high ranking banking official, then BTC is not going to help you.

(or you hold BTC already, and in which case who cares about Euros)

right ..... but that is a different discussion all together, there are logistics involved in moving large amounts of hot money no matter how you dice it. Though chances are if you have private jets worth of notes in cyprus stored in a luxury apartment, then you can probably do with not moving it for a month in the case capital controls are in place and all the banks shut and your usual friendly bank manager cannot help you out or you cannot deposit and transfer the cash to an exchange if going down the BTC route.

I was talking about how buying BTC is not an option for people that are already in a country that capital controls have been placed (and maybe expecting a haircut or a massive devaluation) as you would not be able to access those funds to buy BTC with.

? what please explain what you mean.

(edit I did not read the article re suitcases full of cash, yeah using BTC could be useful in that instance. I thought you meant for evading capital controls, ie where the banks/ATMS are shut, internet banking is shut , in that situation BTC would not help)

only if they could actually get to the money... and in which case.... what would they need BTC for.

I agree, apart from anything else, they had their accounts frozen, out of the blue (ish) and therefore they would not have been able to buy, unless they a) already had cash and in which case, problem already solved no need for BTC, or b) they already held money in accounts abroad, and in which case problem solved. The money they had in accounts in Cyprus apart from the very luck few, had capital controls imposed on them  so they could not buy BTC with them if they wanted.

However, I DO think that the occurrence spoke to many people, I do not think it was entirely insignificant for the argument in favor of decentralised crypto-currencies.

Remember it was not just capital controls, they also got a haircut for their troubles.

obvious is obvious.

Sorry to clarify:  We are in the middle of a enormous financial crisis shit-storm, the likes of which we have never seen before. What I meant was that a Lehman collapse, or a Grexit, are medium sized crisis (which are in fact symptoms of the enormous financial shit storm)  

I think "big" and "huge" and "enormous" crisis would be events such as , G8 nation defaulting, or a catastrophic bond market collapse, or a dollar collapse, or full disintegration of the Euro or a tsunami wipes out Tokyo,  or a dirtbomb hits a major city, a major hot war between superpowers etc etc ... those kind of events.. which are all possible.   They are what I would call a big crisis. But make no mistake, the world is in the middle of a huge event now no doubt about it, I think that a grexit itself for example would be medium crisis event in the  much larger shit storm.

Directly... at this point in time.... very little.

Indirectly... a lot.


I am not sat here with my cock in hand hoping for a financial crash in hopes of escaping capital outflows benefiting BTC, because well at this point in time I do not see it happening.

However, there is an increasing possibility no matter how the current situation pans out, that we may see capital controls put in place (not just in greece either) due to the situation in Greece.  there is a perfect storm scenario where the Greece leaves the union, and the ECB declare they will not provide temporary liquidity to cover the capital flight from greece.  In fact there is the scenario where even if it does not go that far, the billions of euros a week that are currently leaving the greek banking system, continues and accelerates, even without a grexit. Basically capital controls could be put in place, and directly at this point in time, the effect for BTC will be very little.. but, it will be yet another exhibition of capital controls, and even if the greeks are not thinking about it, others will be.

So if the Swiss unpeg was the first canary in the mine.... perhaps Greece is our second canary..

Plus also BTC does not operate in a vacuum anymore than Greece or Europe does...  as I said earlier if Greece leaves it is relevant to most, and certainly to anything to do with the economy/investments etc. I have posted on here in the past about my view of how BTC may be impacted by a (medium sized) financial crisis.

Put yer cocks away

What are you babbling on about now you crazy Brazilian professor you ?   

Indeed... the problem is, is that from the Eurozone/Troika/German point of view, they are not really just negotiating with Greece (as other members of the eurozone are looking very closely at what Greece manages to win out of the negotiations) so any decision made that loosens conditions for the greece, will be expected by certain other nations.
 
From the Greek side,  Syriza will be booted out on their arse by this time next year if they do not at least appear to come good on their pre election promises.

 The underlying problem for the eurozone is that if Greece were to set a precedent by leaving the currency (possibly the union) then it will show that membership is not the one way road that many thought it was...  and then what happens if Podemos wins his election campaign ? then all of a sudden, confidence in the Euro will take a further knock.

All of this is going on, in a fiscal and political union, that is not balanced, not intergrated, does not share the same culture, does not have regulated tax, and provides little benefit to many member states of the union, let alone the people from those countries.  It is as if Europe wants to be a union, but not really and only when it suits the major players.

of course on top of this is the fact that many European members and their banks are in fact insolvent, and that in actual fact the euro wide (global) can kicking has not stopped at all, not anywhere in the zone, and not across the pond either, it is all a charade................... and Greece is just the sharp end of the stick at the moment.

Chances are that the alternatives to a "solution"  are so unpalatable that a compromise will be reached (to kick that can further down the road)  though if they do not make headway, and v soon, then the "markets" will force the situation... billions of euros per week are already exiting the Greek banking system, and that could turn into a problem if this current state of brinkmanship continues. That being said, with both sides digging their heels in, maybe we will get to see fireworks and a grexit, odds  are the highest they have been for this scenario, for quite some time, and you might even say it is becoming inevitable (eventually)... So maybe Merkel et al will decide that the Eurozone can take a grexit from the currency union at this point in time, and hope that in doing so, it will have a big stick to wave around at the rest of Europe.

My gut tells me they will do all they can to keep the union together and continue to kick the can down the road.

My spidey senses are telling me, that this situation is symptomatic of far larger underlying issues within the union/globe and that something might be about to give... because in fact it is only a matter of time before something HAS to give, so in that case I would not be surprised if they try and stem the flow of blood here and now either.

Gotta doff your hat to the Swiss, they were the obvious canary in the mine.

?

I heard people say the same thing when Lehman/sub-prime mortgage fiasco was happening,   those same people still cannot figure out (7-8 years later) why they are working more, earning less, why their house is worth less, why their chicken and shopping costs more.

Greece does not operate in a vacuum, plus, make no mistake, Portugal, Spain, France, Italy are all looking very closely at what is happening, they also do not operate in a vacuum.

Even if there is a last minute compromise reached this week, even then, the future of Greece in the Euro is looking shaky. Elections coming up in other southern European countries soon too.

If you are in a position to be isolated and immune from the global financial situation, then bully for you, but while the world will not cave in on itself, neither will a grexit be an isolated event that effects only the Greeks.  

Greece leaving the Euro, if it happens , will be relevant to everyone.....