The problem with the game of chicken is that it's entirely possible for both sides to lose.
Indeed... the problem is, is that from the Eurozone/Troika/German point of view, they are not really just negotiating with Greece (as other members of the eurozone are looking very closely at what Greece manages to win out of the negotiations) so any decision made that loosens conditions for the greece, will be expected by certain other nations.
From the Greek side, Syriza will be booted out on their arse by this time next year if they do not at least appear
to come good on their pre election promises.
The underlying problem for the eurozone is that if Greece were to set a precedent by leaving the currency (possibly the union) then it will show that membership is not the one way road that many thought it was... and then what happens if Podemos wins his election campaign ? then all of a sudden, confidence in the Euro will take a further knock.
All of this is going on, in a fiscal and political union, that is not balanced, not intergrated, does not share the same culture, does not have regulated tax, and provides little benefit to many member states of the union, let alone the people from those countries. It is as if Europe wants to be a union, but not really and only when it suits the major players.
of course on top of this is the fact that many European members and their banks are in fact insolvent, and that in actual fact the euro wide (global) can kicking has not stopped at all, not anywhere in the zone, and not across the pond either, it is all a charade................... and Greece is just the sharp end of the stick at the moment.
Chances are that the alternatives to a "solution" are so unpalatable that a compromise will be reached (to kick that can further down the road) though if they do not make headway, and v soon, then the "markets" will force the situation... billions of euros per week are already exiting the Greek banking system, and that could turn into a problem if this current state of brinkmanship continues. That being said, with both sides digging their heels in, maybe we will get to see fireworks and a grexit, odds are the highest they have been for this scenario, for quite some time, and you might even say it is becoming inevitable (eventually)... So maybe Merkel et al will decide that the Eurozone can take a grexit from the currency union at this point in time, and hope that in doing so, it will have a big stick to wave around at the rest of Europe.
My gut tells me they will do all they can to keep the union together and continue to kick the can down the road.
My spidey senses are telling me, that this situation is symptomatic of far larger underlying issues within the union/globe and that something might be about to give... because in fact it is only a matter of time before something HAS to give, so in that case I would not be surprised if they
try and stem the flow of blood here and now either.
Gotta doff your hat to the Swiss, they were the obvious canary in the mine.
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