SBF might not be favored very much by pleaing.. and there are some small chances that he could hang the jury or something like that, but there are still other charges that are outstanding.. ... so it is difficult to imagine any scenario in which he does not get at least 5-10 years.. would really be some long shot kinds of scenarios, and perhaps his going to trial is an attempt to shoot at those long shot scenarios.. even though he is likely using other people's money for the cost of the trial.. but that's another matter... remember at one point, he said that he ONLY had like $100k in his bank account.. another one of his lies.


You sound mixed up UmerIdrees.

There are various kinds of proceedings, and yeah, there is no one stop place for justice, and sometimes justice is not meted out..

The criminal trial does go personally after Sam because that is the general nature of a criminal trial.. sometimes there could be orders of restitution for victims.. but there surely needs to be found evidence of guilt first before the trial would go into the damages phase (whether that is ONLY sentencing or if their might be ways in which restitution could come from Sam to the extent to which funds/property can be found and attributable to him).

Wow.. you make some decent points DubemIfedigbo001..but you sound pretty bitter in regards to your own fuck ups in regards to bitcoin, that is if you are really telling the truth about your own mistakes..

Too bad you did not figure out ways to learn from your fuck ups and perhaps adjust your position size and approach rather than getting bitter about it and suggesting that people have to be some kind of expert in various aspects of bitcoin prior to getting started in terms of their investing into it which is surely not the case that people need to know all angles of bitcoin prior to getting started, and getting started is likely a better approach. 

One thing that likely is true, however, is that it is likely better to adjust your position size to the level of your knowledge (competencies), and surely some people can end up getting over their skis because they go at something (whether investing in bitcoin or otherwise) and they do not adjust their position size to their level of competencies, but if there are at least some attempts at balance, then position size can be helpful in terms of both learning as you go but also getting started as soon as possible, which seem to be one of the better things to do in bitcoin is to get started rather than diddly daddlying around and to be scared of it.

I doubt that I was making it about you.  If I say, your ideas suck, or if I say that you keep saying that the BTC price is going down and you seem to be against buying and you seem to be for waiting.. then I am not talking about you, I am talking about your ideas... even if I might frame my response in a way that might seem to be attacking you personally, that's not my intention.


Yes.. you already made that point clearly, and it may well be true that a recession comes and/or various asset classes end up crashing, but that still does not necessarily mean that bitcoin buying should be put off in order to see how that might play out... especially for folks who might not have any or much BTC.

Now for guys likely you who have been stacking for more than 7 years, then maybe you can afford to wait for dips because you have enough BTC to be somewhat prepared for UP, even if you are hanging onto some of your cash, just in case the BTC price goes down or for other emergency expense reasons as you also stated to be another one of your reasons to be hanging onto some cash, yet at the same time, you are not selling your bitcoin and you have a certain amount of bitcoin that helps to prepare you for up.. so it is not like you are not prepared in both directions, even if you are talking doom and gloomy and talking about waiting rather than buying with whatever extra cash that you have built up since the last times that you bought.


From my perspective, you are still overly focusing on macro factors and presuming BTC correlation. .or even presuming that bitcoin might go down before it goes up.. so even if the various macro markets might continue to be inflated and due for various crashes, whether talking about the stock market, properties and other bubbles, that does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is not the place to be.. even though surely we have seen in the very short term (like a liquidity event similar to March 2020), all assets seemed to have had been flocking to the dollar, and sure that can happen again.

So you can have some funds available to prepare for those kinds of possibilities.

And, yeah, you also hinted that Bitcoin might stay crashed or under performing for longer periods of time based on such macro happenings, which may or may not play out in the way that you are describing as a possibility.. .

Sure it does not hurt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, even including the ones that you describe, but it still does not necessarily mean that we should be waiting to buy bitcoin rather than just merely adjusting our buy amounts and frequency of buys depending on our own various specific that may well also relate very much to how many BTC that we are already holding.


Ok... I gave my opinion.


I made conscious decisions to leave value with both Bitfinex and BTC-e.. .. and there were times in which I changed my mind about how much BTC I was keeping with various third parties, and also coming to find out about how easy sim attacks make people vulnerable .. and they are still going on now... but in 2017, they were less common, but I probably should have realized a bit better regarding the sim swap attack vector.. .. so then if something like that ends up happening, there are ways to change some approaches in order to make funds less vulnerable to that attack vehicle, even though, sometimes, some funds might still be vulnerable through other attack mechanism.


Some losses are BIGGER than others, and frequently there are ways to protect yourself even when taking risks, but one of the things about risks is that we don't always realize some of the risks that we are taking or we assign the wrong values and might end up with losses from which are more difficult to recover... financially and/or psychologically...


There are a lot of ways that people go through and deal with losses, and surely if all of the value was ONLY in BTC, then there might be more devastation.. but if the person had various other non-btc investments (such as stocks, properties, bonds and cash) that might have had been equal to 20 or 30 BTC at the time that s/he lost the 20 BTC, then there still is a nestegg of value in some other location.. so the loss in terms of half of the BTC portfolio might seem large in the short term, but there are various other reserve assets in other places... so such loss is not totally devastating.. only partially devastating.. and I also described a scenario in which the overall dollar value of the BTC portfolio did not even effectively bring down networth for vary long because the BTC price had been going up so much at the time.. . so then the loss ends up playing out more like opportunity costs rather than actual losses in networth that lasted...

one of the funny things about bitcoin (or maybe any other greatly appreciating asset, that sometimes very large mistakes can be made, but mostly HODLers/accumulators still can end up making money, even if they might have made less money from their mistakes, they still can end up making money in some kinds of scenarios, as long as they don't get totally reckt, and this case, holding onto half of the BTC was part of the explanation for the devastation not being as bad as it could have had been.


ok.


I surely am not of the perspective that anyone should be waiting... but instead if such person does not have an emergency fund in place and does not have very many back up resources, then s/he can still invest into bitcoin, but just take a smaller position size while s/he is working on shoring up various ways to draw from emergency funds.  

So my own perspective is that there is likely needs to get started in bitcoin as soon as possible, while at the same time, if there are various things messed up in your regular life, then likely you need to be both working on shoring them up and also making sure that you are not taking any kind of large BTC position size.. so maybe instead of investing $100 per week into bitcoin, you only invest $10 per wee into bitcoin and use the other $90 per week to get your other shit together.. and so maybe it takes you 1-2 years before you can get your shit together sufficiently enough that you can move your weekly investment size up to $100 per week, but in the meantime, you had been investing $10 per week while you were putting in order other aspects of your financial and psychological life.

So I think that it is better to error on the side of getting started bitcoin sooner rather than later, even if you have various messes in your life that you simultaneously having to actively work upon.


that sounds right.


Sorry to cause so much work upon you.... hahahahaha.....yeah.. sometimes there are no real needs to respond further.

First, my regrets for your loss in terms of using a ledger... and even having the balls to admit it.. .. hahahahahaha.. so yeah.. I agree.. sucks to be uie pooie, but for different reason than the ones that you stated.

Second, if you cannot remember where the ledger is, then how would you feel comfortable that someone might not have had gotten ahold of it, which would trigger a need for you to move all your funds to a new seed.

Third, yeah there's gotta be a way to make sure that you do not forget your secret hiding places.. and  some of us might have some similar complicated ways of having to get at our back-ups.. and even some other strange ways of storage in which the details of which pieces are needed could result in loss of funds if all of the pieces are not put back together in the right order... so I surely have some sympathy in terms of a lesson to be NOT making our set up any more complicated than it needs to be.. but we still have to make it complicated enough that the evil maid or any other previously seemingly "good" person might not end up being curious regarding "how much value might be connected with this information".. which surely is a risk with anything that is written down and is in one place rather than multiple places.

I will take a look at that thread... .. within the coming days (if I am able to.. I put it on my list of threads to look at) and maybe we are saying similar things, but I do get the sense that you are waffling a bit more than me in terms of trying to suggest that rich people have advantages and those kinds of BTC accumulation kinds of things, which sure there is truth to some of those kinds of claims, but it probably remains somewhat distracting to the overall idea that a lot of rich people are not taking advantage of their advantage because they are either too busy ignoring bitcoin or not engaging in actual bitcoin stacking practices, so in that regard, even poor people can get ahead of their rich counter-parts with bitcoin as long as they manage their bitcoin investment in ways that mostly result in ongoing BTC accumulation.. and that they do not cause themselves to get reckt by engaging in too much risky and/or sloppy behaviors..

Sure it is harder to reck some rich people, but the world is not going to change over night and some rich people make pretty dumbass mistakes too.. including that most of the world 99% or so.. do not have any fucking clue about bitcoin (even if they heard the word and they think that they know what it is... which means that even rich people are not buying bitcoin), and that is likely part of the reason that bitcoin is going to continue to serve as one of the greatest (if not the greatest) wealth transfer vehicle that man has ever seen, and anyone and everyone can advantage of bitcoin as long as they act in a relatively prudent way in terms of making sure that they are ongoingly accumulating bitcoin but without overly doing it in such a way that they get greedy, and then maybe they will end up not advantaging themselves or advantaging themselves much less because they got greedy.. or made some other mistakes that caused them to get separated from their coins much sooner than they should have had been separated..

..so in some sense each of us should be attempting to keep a decent amount of our bitcoin in private kinds of ways so that we protect ourselves from too much third party exposure (some third party exposure is o.k. and probably just a part of living in the modern world), but even with private storage of our keys, we have to be careful not to end up locking ourselves out of our keys/bitcoin. 

I heard this expression the other day that there is a certain percentage of bitcoins that are lost forever, but the owner of those bitcoin don't yet realize that their coins are lost forever.. but once they go to move their coins or to take advantage of their coins, they will find out that they do not have access to the coins that they thought that they had.

It is not necessarily easy to be a bitcoin accumulator and HODLer.. even if there remain a lot of ongoingly great ways to benefit from being a long term bitcoin accumulator / HODLer.

We can agree to disagree.  My previous post speaks for itself, and I feel no need to repeat myself at this particular point, even thought I will continue to suggest that you are in la la landia if you continue to proclaim that bitcoin price follows miner costs, when it doesn't.


That's good news.

Different ways to use your bitcoin - even though I still wonder how many folks are going to want to take that course of action without receiving some kind of a discount.. almost like a cash discount, since bitcoin is the superior asset - and there surely would be advantages to any auto dealer to receive payment right away without having to go through financing - even if it still might tend to be their own in-house financer for the BIGGER auto brands.


I will say.. less than 33.33% chance that he gets 110 years or more.

Maybe my base case would expect him to get 30-50 years.. or maybe I should just say that I think that there are pretty good odds that he gets more than 30 years.. but hey it's still kind of early in the whole process.. and I would sure like to see his parents charged and some more dirt to come out.  I have some difficulties thinking that Sam was the main guy pulling the strings, yet I am not sure if there would be anyone deserving more time than him, since he was the seeming figure head and boss of the organization.. but did he actually direct his various underlings.. the next in charge.. I suppose those kinds of details will come out during the trial - if he does not end up plea-ing or having an "accident"..

I am already questioning your presumption that extra digits beyond a satoshi would not have extra value, even though I can understand why infinite digits might not be a good place to stop, but instead attempt to figure out some number of digits (currently at 8 on chain and then 11 digits if we are referring to lightning network).

So it is difficult to presume in advance how far to go with the number of digits before they would not have value.. so maybe there is a need to ONLY go to 8 digits right now, but add another 8 digits every 32 years (that is 8 x 4) .. and if the extra digits do not have any value, then I can see the point that they are just taking up space, but I am having difficulties seeing the point of not being precise when we are not sure how much value sub-satoshis are going to have or how many digits we might need to go at any particular time before no more value is present. 

It seemed to me that ONLY one digit would need to be added every 4 years. but I suppose if we are considering backwards and forwards compatibility then there might need to be some kind of a forward projection of value (and/or considerations regarding how many digits to go in order to project out)..

In that regard, it seems that already on the lightning network, there has been some considerations that 1/1000 of a satoshi does have some value... and so by the time we start getting into more than 8 digit bitcoin block rewards in 2048 (as I pointed out in my earlier post), then at that point there likely would be some further needs for subsatoshis even going beyond three additional digits beyond the satoshi that the lightning network already shows.

I am starting to like my idea of adding 8 more digits every 32 years.. but then when to start?.. To me it seems that there would be some kind of a need to start prior to their being recognized in the block reward... but surely I can appreciate that at some point bitcoin is likely NOT going to be going up in value enough in order to justify adding more digits (or worthless bandwith consumption precision, as you suggested).

I like that expression.

Bitcoin is for everyone.

Also:

Bitcoin is for anyone.



At the same time, you are likely not going to get any bitcoin unless you take some kind of action.

Sure someone could gift it to you, but you still have to set up a wallet or figure something out, so likely it is better to attempt to be a bit proactive with bitcoin as an opportunity that is for everyone and for anyone, but you are likely going to be favored based on early action rather than just sitting around and not doing anything.. yet even  the nocoiner and the low coiners are going to be more and more benefitted by the existence of bitcoin, even if they do not own any .. because bitcoin creates incentive systems and fairness that benefits all of society in terms of fair access, and you really get more benefit from bitcoin if you actually attempt to own some of it, even if you do not own very much and even if it takes you several years to accumulate a meaningful amount.

For example, $10 a week would be better than $10 per month, but even if you just invest $10 per month in bitcoin, you are quite likely going to be in a better position 5-10 years in the future, even if you might have ONLY ened up buying $1,200 worth of bitcoin over a 10 year period.

So the amount of your BTC accumulation is partially up to you... and sure it is better if you have more disposable income, but you gotta work with what you got, and if you have some disposable income but you do not invest any into bitcoin, then you might not have as many options if you continue to persist with such behaviors of NOT buying any bitcoin.


Bitcoin is still for everyone and for anyone, even if some people choose not to take advantage of it.

Bitcoin is still available for everyone and anyone.

There are some people who are going to take advantage of bitcoin (and getting into bitcoin) more than others, and some people have more disposable income than others.

There are some folks with a lot of disposable income but they choose not to get involved in bitcoin accumulation, and there are people who have way less disposable income who do choose to get involved in bitcoin accumulation, and likely those who choose to get involved in bitcoin accumulation are going to benefit from the ongoing wealth transference that seems to be taking place through bitcoin.

There are not too many barriers to entry in regards to bitcoin except maybe figuring out how to hold bitcoin, and then some jurisdictions do have restrictions on bitcoin, but even the restrictions of some jurisdictions would not be able to stop all people from getting bitcoin if such people really were to want to get bitcoin. .bitcoin is not stopping them from getting bitcoin, even if their governments might be putting barriers in place.

If I use my fingers to count, then from now until the mid-to-end of April, I get 6.5 months. 

7 months at the most.

Not 8 months - even though anything can happen in the next 6-8 months.. but based on our almost being there, I really doubt 8 months.

In order to get 8 months, a lot of hashpower would have to be taken off-line and maybe even consistently.. and after every difficulty adjustment to continue to remove hashpower... seems that mining just is not that centralized, even though people sometimes FUD about various aspects of control over mining and also ability to mine.. .but if the hashing power and difficulty gets cut in half from here.. there likely would be previously inefficient miners coming online. .and, yeah we could say that the BTC price might have to drop as well (and electricity go up) in order to ongoingly disincentivize currently inefficient miners from coming online when the difficulty continues to spiral down.. in such a scenario..


Define "surge."  What if bitcoin does not go down as much as some other assets?

You seem to be ongoingly committing the same error as a lot of people who do not seem to either understand bitcoin or to be able to look at the charts.

In other words, even if we don't know exactly what bitcoin is going to do in various scenarios, we should not be presuming bitcoin to be correlated to traditional assets or to macro factors that attempt to manipulate the market..

Another thing is that even though UPpity is always a possibility and a probability, we should not be basing our finances and psychology on that, while at the same time we should continue to prepare for BTC prices to go in either direction, which means that you better not be disappointed when you end up holding onto more fiat than you wished that you had held merely based on your considerations of various downity scenarios for the BTC price that might not end up playing out. just because a lot of smart people are talking about those various doom and gloom scenarios.


Yeah.. but part of the discussion and the likely correct answers in terms of personal preparations should be to set yourself up for either price direction, which means that we don't really know with any kind of certainty, and we never did.. and that is why we should be trying to set ourselves up  for either price direction.. whether you want to hear it or not. 

Don't get me wrong.. we have already seen historically that you can get rich as fuck by merely setting some value aside and putting it into bitcoin (which is preparations for UP), and the UP might not even need to be very large in order for you to profit, and the same is likely going to continue to be true - even though there are no guarantees of anything, so part of my own ongoing message remains to consider to continue to stack your sats so that you are ongoingly prepared for UP, whether it is going to happen for sure or not, and at the same time you can have some value on the side to buy in case BTC dips, but that does not mean that you should not ONGOINGLY be buying, unless you already happen to have had reached your accumulation goal.. which does not seem to be the case with you, Wind_FURY..... You seem to be largely just getting greedy and expecting BTC prices to go down further in order that you can accumulate an additional 0.000349451 BTC.. which is likely a BIG so fucking what, especially if the BTC price goes up rather than down and then you do not accumulate any BTC merely because you thought that you might be able to get more and you were wanting people to agree with your decision.

And, even if you end up being correct in terms of the BTC price going down before up or getting caught in some further stagnation, it still does not mean that you or anyone else should be fucking around with trying to get lower BTC prices when we are still below the 200-week moving average (which is currently right below $28k).

But hey, whatever, you do what you like in terms of your ongoingly wanting to likely overly prepare ur lil selfie for DOWNity scenarios and put a lot of weight on that.. and then whether they happen or not, you are likely largely gambling with such a tactic.. because I doubt that DOWNity is as clear as you are making it out to be or the other various macro pundits.. but whatever, you do you.


Wind_FURY does not believe in buying now, and he would prefer to wait.. and that's his choice.. because he does not really believe in DCA, especially if he thinks that he might be able to get a wee bit more BTC if he were to wait.. .. so he likes to gamble, even though he believes that he is not really gambling because he thinks that the odds are in his favor merely because a lot of smart macro pundits are saying the same thing about recession in 2024 blah blah blah.

So Wind_FURY wants us to agree with his decision to gamble and his decision to wait for further DOWNity. that may or may not end up happening... and actually seem doubtful to be happening.. but we still can be prepared of the downity to happen, while at the same time consistently and ongoingly stacking sats, but Wind_FURY does not want to do that because he has already got it into his head that there is going to be further down. even if at the same time, he doesn't really know that's why he is asking for us to agree with him, and his wait for the recession approach.

Most likely king daddy gives less than two shits about any recession... but we have not really seen bitcoin's price performance in such a potentially ongoingly negative macro performance scenario.


You are speaking a bit vaguely and like a trader and a gambler junder.

We are not talking about trading and/or gambling in this thread, even though surely part of the thread does relate to trying to figure out when there are dips in order to be able to buy on the dip, which is also part of the reason that so many of the participants in this thread seem to have had resorted to ongoingly DCA while not really knowing how to figure out how much of a dip there is going to be, but if they (we) are ongoingly accumulating BTC in these price areas, then in the longer term we are likely going to be setting ourselves up to be in a good position and with more options.. rather than merely considering whether there might be short term profits in October.. .. even at the same time, UPward price moves can be helpful psychologically, even if we are not selling right away because we are likely able to see signs that we are on the right path in terms of both ongoingly HODLing BTC but also in terms of our spending quite a bit of time in accumulating BTC.

You have been a member of the forum for quite a long time @junder (since April 2015), so even if you had been investing a low amount of value (such as $10 per week) into bitcoin, you would have had the potential to have had been in a very good position by now.. more than 8 years after registering on the forum...which would be about $4,400 invested into BTC and nearly  2.81 BTC accumulated. 

So if you did not start to DCAing into BTC in 2015, then you might have started to invest into bitcoin at a later date, and if you have not figured out the value and power of DCA (and or the ongoing buying of BTC and HODLing it), then maybe you better rethink your approach to BTC and your ways of talking about BTC in terms of short term profits..

But hey, whatever, I don't know enough about you, but I can look at your timeline in terms of your registration on the forum and use the charts to project out what a modest DCA into BTC strategy might have done for your finances and perhaps psychology overall if you had been ongoingly accumulating BTC during that time.. and surely there are no real signs that an ongoing accumulation of BTC is not going to continue to be a decently good plan, even if we might not know the future exactly, so if you have not gotten started in DCA and/or ongoingly accumulating BTC, then maybe you better get started sooner rather than later, and stop wasting so much time and energies thinking about short term profits.


Fair enough.  Save some of your dollars for the possible crash then.  No one is suggesting to be buying BTC from what should be your emergency fund. So if you do not have enough money in your emergency fund to buy now, then you better wait it out... I don't have any objections to that kind of a motivation.

You never want to put yourself into a situation in which you have to be selling your BTC at a price that is other than your complete choice.. and likely better to be selling BTC on the way up rather than down.. but if you already reached fuck you status with your BTC then you just sell some BTC whenever you need some additional money as compared to the person who is still in BTC accumulation stages, should not be overly buying if s/he does not have enough certainty in his/her cashflow/expensens and emergency angles to all of that.


If you are accumulating BTC for the long term, then you should not be giving too many shits about short term UPpity price movements, except that it confirms your investment into BTC, but if you are not ready to sell yet, then there remains quite a bit of value in just continuing to accumulate BTC and not getting concerned about whether a bull run is coming soon or not.

Since you guys are talking so much about milli-satoshis and also the idea of being able soft fork for the purposes of a tail emmission, I just keep wondering about the idea sub-satoshi digits being recognized, and it seems to me that tail emissions could already be built into bitcoin, "as is" except for the seemingly mere fact that the code does not recognize less than a satoshi units... so why not just add another 3-8 digits to the recognition on the main blockchain, and then just continue to have halvenings (blockrewards) forever. 

Why can't something like that work?  I am pretty sure that I asked the question before, and I am pretty sure that the answer was merely based on the satoshi being the smallest unit recognized and therefore there is no recognition of rewards (splits) that happen below those 8 digits, once the number of digits starts to get down to that level.. .. and right now we are only going from 6.25 to 3.125 (2 digits after the decimal to 3 digits

2024  = 3.125  (3 digits)

2028  = 3.5625  (4 digits)

2032  = 0.78125  (5 digits)

2036  = 0.390625  (6 digits)

2040  = 0.1953125  (7 digits)

2044  = 0.09765625  (8 digits)

2048  = 0.048828125  (9 digits)   or 0.04882812  (8 digits)

My understanding is that right now the current bitcoin software variations do not recognize beyond 8 digits, so in 2048 the 9th digit is not going to be recognized, so it gets cut off.. but why not just continue to recognize infinite digits.. that recognition of further digits beyond 8 digits is not creating more bitcoin and/or satoshis beyond the original contemplation, so the total will never go above 21 million even though the recognition will continue to go to smaller and smaller subunits. in order to have the halvening and the reward forever.. even though the smaller units might not be worth much of anything.. but that seems to be a question for the future rather than the present... but such recognition of more than 8 digits does seem to be affected in the current reward set-up starting in 2048.. and to me it seems like it could be a soft fork to merely add further recognition of bitcoin of smaller values than a satoshi (or with more than 8 digits after the decimal).

King daddy gives no shits about months... so maybe it will go up and maybe it won't.

Probably not.

BTC price gives no shits about miners... and miners have to figure out if they are going to mine or not mine.. that is the question, even if some of them might end up getting reckt along the way.. which for sure is part of the process and there is no dire problem that is even close to anything that you seem to be inferring as problematic..and maybe the BTC price will go up and maybe it won't.. doesn't really matter too much in the whole scheme of things.

By the way, there mere fact that there might be a lot of miners driving up the hashrate and therefore driving themselves into needing prices to go up is likely a product of their own making.. and sure, let them get reckt if they have not configured their operations in such a way to protect their lil selfies.. and furthermore, if you ever heard of the difficulty adjustment. we could lose 90% of the miners and probably still be o.k... even if there could be some dire scenarios that anyone might point out, I have my doubts that the difficulty adjustment is not going to take care of any fluctuation that might have to happen to hashpower if it happens that the BTC price does not end up going up as fast as some of the miners may have had been betting (speculating)...



Even if your various numbers are correct, it's a BIG so fucking what in terms of what the BTC price is going to do.  Miners have to react to price, not the other way around.

Which also does not mean that the BTC price won't go up to $1million or whatver in this cycle or even in the coming year or so, but BTC's price's going up or down is not based on how much hash power has been put into it.


There still is no guarantee price will go up and sometimes it takes several months after the halvening for the actual effects of the physical reduction of BTC new supply is uncontrollably felt and no longer able to keep such bad boy down.

Sure, there is also a chance that new ATH's are reached on or before the halvening and even higher than Adam Back's prediction price (of $100k).  The odds are probably not high for that kind of scenario, but king daddy likely gives few shits about odds... when it sometimes might get stubborn about doing what it wants to do.

Sure.... the more BTC that you have then you will likely be better off, but at the same time, you are right to suggest that it is is NOT a good idea to panic, and you need to go at your own pace in regards to your ongoing BTC accumulation, even if it might end up being at a lower BTC amount during the periods in which the BTC price is going up... yet at the same time, those of us who are into bitcoin and accumulating at these levels (and even if brand new to bitcoin), we are likely way ahead of those who might think that they know about bitcoin but for whatever reason(s) have failed and refused to act in order to stack it.. (even though they are able to do so if they were to merely just take some action).. so ongoing wealth transfer and  there are likely going to be people who are really struggling to get a hold of anything close to a million satoshis when right now a million satoshis can be gotten for less than $300.


Just the other day, I used the example of even if the guy who started stacking $100 per week worth of BTC three years ago and got around 0.58 BTC for right around $15,700, is barely at the same place as the guy who could buy the same amount of BTC today for just under $28k.

The guy who started 3 years ago is likely in a much better place to having had already stacked those BTC over the past 3 years at a regular and consistent pace including likely making some curbing of his consumption practices, versus the presumptively financially equivalent guy who might think that he is going to be able to just lump sum into BTC (even assuming that he could actually get his hands on $15,700 to be able to buy BTC right now or to maybe get a bit of a dip or maybe try to figure out how he might want to maximize the quantity of BTC that he is able to be assuredly get with the $15,700 that he presumably has been able to save, if he were to have had even been able to save it up for the past 3 years).

Even someone who is attempting to be somewhat aggressive in his BTC accumulation by investing $100 per week in to bitcoin for three years, may still not otherwise be able to put that quantity of $15,700 together, and that is why it makes so much more sense on a practical level to be regularly attempting to get a bit of BTC (whether aggressively or not) rather than sitting on your hands or even saving up for it and holding those dollars and waiting for a dip hardly seems to be a very active approach, even though in November 2022, $15,700 could have (hypothetically) gotten the same level of economic equivalent guy a whole BTC (but he might have ONLY been able to buy a bit more than $10k at that time, if there is a presumption that he is setting aside $100 per week that is supposed to go to bitcoin - at some point), but we might realize that it would have been difficult for many normies to buy BTC  when it is dipping down in the $15ks, and thinking that it might go lower, in that kind of way in November 2022 for most normal people.. even assuming that they might have been able to have a bit more than $10k saved up at that time under the saving (setting aside of) $100 per week scenario..

Gold folks and gold are relics.. like dinausours.. but still kind of interesting in their own right..

Surely, one thing about bitcoin is that it is around 1,000x better than gold, and I hope that I am not understating the comparison.. so surely if you can appreciate aspects of money, especially the verifiability and the ease of transport and the ability to self-claim it without too many costs, except maybe some technical learning that does continue to change.. but here are still quite a few ways to secure your bitcoin without too much reliance on others..

How many dollars worth of bitcoin do you have? 

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$100,000,000

$10,000,000,000

or some other amount..

So, you can see how the amount might affect the way that you choose to store your bitcoin, but even if you have the higher amounts, there are ways that you can secure that on your own.. and some of them more secure than others, but could you even imagine having more than $1 million in gold, and trying to secure it on your own.. and then when it comes to transporting it or even verifying it.. you might be kind of fucked in terms of how much attention you end up drawing to yourself and your stash. 

Should I even attempt to make the comparison to bitcoin, when many of us already have a lot of ideas regarding how even the larger amounts of bitcoin that I listed above could be self-stored, and surely there are likely some better practices regarding how to manage that much value, but there could be ways to actually transport and/or to store such value without much help from anyone else or without anyone really knowing about it.. or being able to stop you before hand.. probably there would be some blockchain analysis attempts at figuring you out if you hold too much of it in one spot.. but there still are likely ways to obfuscate those matters... .

But are any of us dealing with those kinds of higher amounts?  I would expect that there quite a few of us (not saying whether I am really part of the club) dealing with $100k and higher values, and many of us have probably honed some of our practices and ways of dealing with increasing values over the years.. so for example, even the bitcoiner from 2015 might have accumulated 21 BTC for anywhere between $6k and $20k, but no matter what his/her basis in the cost, if s/he had been able to continue to hold onto the 21 BTC, then today's value is more than $500k.. and there could be questions regarding how much to keep in one place.. whether they are in 1 BTC chunks are maybe even in 0.1 BTC chunks.  there are a variety of ways to manage those holdings and perhaps some of them are more cold storage and some might be on chain and portable or held on exchanges and some might be on the lightning network or even other ways of holding coins that may or may not involve any third parties.. and surely sometimes we do need to be a bit weary of third parties having too many of our coins, but there might be some utility in terms of dealing with third parties, too.


Also, it is difficult to argue that bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch for the past 10 years or more, and there is no real sign that bitcoin will not continue to eat gold's lunch in the coming years.. which is likely going to end up playing out in ways in which bitcoin's 1,000x more valuable attributes as compared to gold ends up playing out in the market, even though currently bitcoin is around 1/20th the price of gold in terms of market cap^**.. so sucks to be you if you allocate more than a few percentages to gold as compared to your bitcoin allocation.

**Admittedly it could take 100 to 200 years for the market to better reflect the relative values of bitcoin and gold, but still the mere fact that it could take a while to work out does not likely justify holding very much, if any, of the inferior asset.


Yeah right.   

I been reading about that since early 2009..

whoops


Yes.. it is a trap.

You better get some in case it catches on..

Otherwise you will trapped because you either don't have any or you do not have enough.. (other ways of saying no coiner or low coiner)

One of the best ways of dealing with bitcoin is to just get the fuck started... even if you are whimpy about it and you are only willing to buy $10 per week when you have a budget that would easily allow you to buy $100 to $300 per week, but you still choose $10 per week you will still likely be better off rather than whining about traps that may or may not exist.


In udder wurds:


Is the trap in the room with us now?

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying.. even though it seems to have a bit of: "everybody expects, so therefore it is likely to happen" sentiment to it.. which personally I find a bit annoying to get those kinds of reasons for why bitcoin is likely to go up.. and even within the time frames that you are outlining..

I think longer term BTC HODLers accumulators do attempt to create some plans and price points for themselves, but then even longer term HODLers/accumulators may well end up deviating from their own plans.. and then maybe even having some regrets if they do not end up selling enough BTC on the way up.. yet it sometimes can be difficult to maintain your status as a longtime HOLDER if you sell too many BTC too soon, even if selling a decent amount might end up being the better thing financially to do..... even while at the same time, there are many historical examples in which way too many BTC end up getting sold way too soon.. and then that ends up leading to just crazy and weird sentiments that start to come out from those guys who were expecting some kind of correction that does not end up happening.

There is no real exact answer, yet surely having some kind of tentative plan is better than having none, so that even if you end up breaking aspects of your plan, at least you have some kind of a guidance that is out there that might at least help you in terms of figuring out how much you would like to deviate from your original plan.. and I am not even saying that sticking with the original plan is going to necessarily bring better results.. so it sometimes can be hard to even know how any of us might react when the previously theoretical numbers end up coming real (presuming that some of them might end up happening at some point in the next 1-3 years.. I am frequently expecting some kind of deviation from the 4 year fractal, even though we have been experiencing quite a bit of ongoing conformity to such four-year fractal, but it seems problematic to put too many eggs (expectations) into that too..

You speak nonsense gobbledy-gook.

If we are able to understand bitcoin as a paradigm-shifting invention of a kind of protocol, then anything that expects to supercede it needs to be something like 10x better otherwise, yes, the first mover advantage becomes a real thing and the copycats, whether litecoin or otherwise did not invent anything really new.. and if it might even be better than bitcoin it is not 10x better and it is not better in any kind of way that whatever their supposed contribution.. to the extent that their tokens might retain some value, could merely end up become competed away by bitcoin or become a second or third layer upon bitcoin...

Remember when that shitcoin ethereum said that bitcoin was going to become a second layer upon it.. what a bunch of nonsense.. you cannot retain decentralization or security unless the decentralized and the secure is the most base of the layers.. which is what bitcoin is.. bitcoin is the most decentralized and the most secure, so in that sense other projects could be built upon it rather than the other way around otherwise the decentralization and security ends up getting lost.. which is a lot of how bitcoin gets its value in the first place through the proof of work systems, incentives around that and the difficulty adjustments and halvenings factored therein...   

I am pretty sure that I had seen something like that previously.. I cannot remember exactly where.... or maybe I just heard such an e-mail had been sent without actually seeing the contents.. like what is being shown in your cited image.

Yes.. from the jochen mempool, we can see that there was a brief dip into clearing some of the 1 sats per vbyte ones, but then it started to move back up.. so you might get too greedy if you don't catch it (to process your utxos or the extent that you feel that you want to consolidate some of your smaller utxos) because once it starts to move up it becomes less clear if there will be any kind of soon return to processing even single digit sats per vbyte.. even though it also could take a while for the backlogs to be created, so you could feel somewhat comfortable setting your transactions (at 2, 3, or 4 sats per vbyte) and just hoping that they clear within a somewhat reasonable period.. a few days is usually good for those kinds of transactions sent to yourself or to a friend/relative who is not too time-sensitive..

You surely seem to be going in both directions with your commentary, and there should always be some kind of need to prepare for further downity, so you largely seem to be quibbling (and/or having your own little dilemma) in regards to how much to hold in your buy on dip fund.   Through my whole time in bitcoin, I have always had some kind of a buy on dip fund, but surely we know that for any of us, there are going to be times in which the buy on dip funds end up getting depleted or mostly depleted.. so if we remain bullish about bitcoin, then we begin to have more and more regrets when we don't have much if any money left to buy BTC on dips when it keeps dipping..., so we might be forced into a kind of HODL status when we don't have any money left to buy.

Who the hell knows if bitcoin prices are going to go down from here are what the odds are to breach various downity support points..?  So at least now we are back above the 200-week moving average which is just shy of $28k right now.

You do seem to be wanting to put so much emphasis on bitcoin's supposed correlation with various macro-calamities, but that still does not necessarily mean that bitcoin will go down from here or that it might not go up before it goes down (if such liquidation dynamics end up playing out at some future date).

Hopefully, you will not end up having too many regrets if it ends up that your seemingly overly-preparation for the dip does not end up causing you either FOMO or just sitting it out for too long and/or actually missing out on buying that you could have had been doing.. and many bitter bitcoiners sometimes end up becoming low coiners or no coiners over such kinds of downity expectations that end up not coming true... which goes back to the expression that each of us should be attempting to balance our preparations for either direction at least a sufficient amount that we are not going to have regrets if the BTC does not move in the direction of our dominant expectation.


There surely are some people who are not in a position to invest.  They have to have discretionary income, which is cashflow that exceeds there expenses.. which would also include that they have made some preparations for an emergency fund of 3-6 months.. .. so yeah, if they do not have discretionary income then they are not in a financial position to invest into bitcoin or into anything else.


That tends to be one of the problems that gamblers have.. they end up using more money than their allocation.. so I suppose in that regard, there are levels of degeneracy when it comes to gambling and some gamblers are more degenerate than others.


Likely true... most gamblers are not actually making money from their gambling... there are some who do, but surely likely to be a relatively small number (in terms of percentage)


I would think that there are many gamblers who are able to set limits for themselves.. maybe even a majority.. but yeah, gambling can be addictive.


If you manage to find some source of income that you are able to keep in bitcoin (once it is already in bitcoin), then that is not very much different from someone who earns fiat and is able to perhaps set aside some of his/her fiat to buy bitcoin.. whether that is something like $10 per week or some other amount that may perhaps vary in amount, too.,,,

So then the question becomes whether or not a person has discretionary income (which is the amount of cashflow incoming that exceeds expenses) and even if the person does not believe that s/he has a sufficient quantity of discretionary income to be able to invest into anything (whether bitcoin or otherwise), such person might force himself/herself to be aware of the idea that bitcoin exists and to consider that if s/he ever wants to attempt to get into a better place in life in the future, then there might need to be some additional discipline in order to be able to figure out a way to set aside some of his/her income in order to buy bitcoin.

Yes, I know that there are people who are really poor and who might not be able to get themself to a position in which they are able to buy bitcoin, but there are a lot of people who also do have certain kinds of areas in which they would be able to either increase their income (like you did with your signature campaign participation) or to decrease their expenses, maybe in their selection of the kinds or quantities of goods or services that they consume... and I am not even necessarily going to claim that i know all the answers nor to suggest that everyone is able to accomplish such a thing as $10 per week.. because sometimes, if they are investing with money that they actually are going to need for their expenses (within the next few years.. at minimum), then they are gambling rather than investing.

It also seems that Calvin is likely just trying to cover his ass in terms of still asserting that Craig is Satoshi... and most likely Calvin does not currently believe that and he might have never believed it.. so surely they are both conmen, but there may well be ways that Calvin is able to distance himself from scrutiny.. and no one wants to end up going to jail and/or losing a lot of assets.. even though there are likely ways that Calvin spent money but also was able to make money in the various BSV related scams.. I don't even want to try to follow the matters very specifically because there are surely a lot of either dumb people involved in BSV.. while at the same time, likely purposefully dumb or even actively scamming (or engaged in their own crimes).