Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[Wind_FURY]

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon.

but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point.

As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

[rachael9385]

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point. As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.

Yes, you are both correct, and that is the other reason why more people are beginning to accumulate more BTC. Everyone wants the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket in the due season. We are just in the month of October and sooner the time for the bullrun will arrive.

Yes, it's true that the economy in some localities is not friendly towards its citizens and I see that it is enough reason for investors and those who are not yet an investor to take part in the investment and keep accumulating until the bullish time. Now is the best time for anyone to join the BTC before it's going to be late. Even if the capital is not enough, they should still start with the little that they have.

[Sayeds56]

Is there really a way to use news to predict the price of Bitcoin? Have you tried it before and predicted it correctly through the news? Well, it is obvious you are suggestion panic buying and probably selling too as you will not hesitate to sell when the news does not seem favorable. In all honesty, this is akin to gambling!

Unfortunately, looking at the news to be able to predict Bitcoin price is not really necessary because, by the caption of this thread, we are buying and holding for long. Therefore, our main focus is how to accumulate as many Bitcoin as we can possibly get while being able to hold for long without being compelled to sell haphazardly.

Absolutely not, there is no way to correctly predict Bitcoin price overtime. While news items and technical analysis can provide into market sentiment, but they are far from fool proof. Technical analysis is not a perfect science, it is science of probability that relies on historical trends and patterns, which may not necessarily repeat in future.

The most effective and widely recognized strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin by employing DCA , as frequently discussed here. Additionally opportunistic purchasing during significant dips can further lower average cost of investment.

[JayJuanGee]

I want to be cautious and not sound too hopeful, it is worth mentioning that we are only 8 months away from halving event,

If I use my fingers to count, then from now until the mid-to-end of April, I get 6.5 months. 

7 months at the most.

Not 8 months - even though anything can happen in the next 6-8 months.. but based on our almost being there, I really doubt 8 months.

In order to get 8 months, a lot of hashpower would have to be taken off-line and maybe even consistently.. and after every difficulty adjustment to continue to remove hashpower... seems that mining just is not that centralized, even though people sometimes FUD about various aspects of control over mining and also ability to mine.. .but if the hashing power and difficulty gets cut in half from here.. there likely would be previously inefficient miners coming online. .and, yeah we could say that the BTC price might have to drop as well (and electricity go up) in order to ongoingly disincentivize currently inefficient miners from coming online when the difficulty continues to spiral down.. in such a scenario..

[edited out]

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Define "surge."  What if bitcoin does not go down as much as some other assets?

You seem to be ongoingly committing the same error as a lot of people who do not seem to either understand bitcoin or to be able to look at the charts.

In other words, even if we don't know exactly what bitcoin is going to do in various scenarios, we should not be presuming bitcoin to be correlated to traditional assets or to macro factors that attempt to manipulate the market..

Another thing is that even though UPpity is always a possibility and a probability, we should not be basing our finances and psychology on that, while at the same time we should continue to prepare for BTC prices to go in either direction, which means that you better not be disappointed when you end up holding onto more fiat than you wished that you had held merely based on your considerations of various downity scenarios for the BTC price that might not end up playing out. just because a lot of smart people are talking about those various doom and gloom scenarios.

[edited out]

They're not entirely commentaries, those are questions. I'm merely asking for your and everyone's opinions. I don't want to hear another "who the hell knows"? This is not about "when to buy or what price to buy". I just want a discussion, it doesn't matter if we agree or disagree, but we can still learn from each other.

Yeah.. but part of the discussion and the likely correct answers in terms of personal preparations should be to set yourself up for either price direction, which means that we don't really know with any kind of certainty, and we never did.. and that is why we should be trying to set ourselves up  for either price direction.. whether you want to hear it or not. 

Don't get me wrong.. we have already seen historically that you can get rich as fuck by merely setting some value aside and putting it into bitcoin (which is preparations for UP), and the UP might not even need to be very large in order for you to profit, and the same is likely going to continue to be true - even though there are no guarantees of anything, so part of my own ongoing message remains to consider to continue to stack your sats so that you are ongoingly prepared for UP, whether it is going to happen for sure or not, and at the same time you can have some value on the side to buy in case BTC dips, but that does not mean that you should not ONGOINGLY be buying, unless you already happen to have had reached your accumulation goal.. which does not seem to be the case with you, Wind_FURY..... You seem to be largely just getting greedy and expecting BTC prices to go down further in order that you can accumulate an additional 0.000349451 BTC.. which is likely a BIG so fucking what, especially if the BTC price goes up rather than down and then you do not accumulate any BTC merely because you thought that you might be able to get more and you were wanting people to agree with your decision.

And, even if you end up being correct in terms of the BTC price going down before up or getting caught in some further stagnation, it still does not mean that you or anyone else should be fucking around with trying to get lower BTC prices when we are still below the 200-week moving average (which is currently right below $28k).

But hey, whatever, you do what you like in terms of your ongoingly wanting to likely overly prepare ur lil selfie for DOWNity scenarios and put a lot of weight on that.. and then whether they happen or not, you are likely largely gambling with such a tactic.. because I doubt that DOWNity is as clear as you are making it out to be or the other various macro pundits.. but whatever, you do you.

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point. As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.

Wind_FURY does not believe in buying now, and he would prefer to wait.. and that's his choice.. because he does not really believe in DCA, especially if he thinks that he might be able to get a wee bit more BTC if he were to wait.. .. so he likes to gamble, even though he believes that he is not really gambling because he thinks that the odds are in his favor merely because a lot of smart macro pundits are saying the same thing about recession in 2024 blah blah blah.

So Wind_FURY wants us to agree with his decision to gamble and his decision to wait for further DOWNity. that may or may not end up happening... and actually seem doubtful to be happening.. but we still can be prepared of the downity to happen, while at the same time consistently and ongoingly stacking sats, but Wind_FURY does not want to do that because he has already got it into his head that there is going to be further down. even if at the same time, he doesn't really know that's why he is asking for us to agree with him, and his wait for the recession approach.

Most likely king daddy gives less than two shits about any recession... but we have not really seen bitcoin's price performance in such a potentially ongoingly negative macro performance scenario.

Nobody knows if the price of bitcoin will go fown again. It may or may not as it is hard to predict bitcoin price movement.

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months. It's possible that we'll witness the green candlelight of bitcoin in the month of October. At the very least, it won't be a terrible idea to anticipate that the price of bitcoin will increase in October compared to other months.

King daddy gives no shits about months... so maybe it will go up and maybe it won't.

up or down in the future no one knows, but if the rumors are true that there will be an increase then this is a good opportunity, not apart from that investors or traders must remain vigilant about the news about BTC that will rise or fall, being aware of the news about btc is certainly necessary so as not to predict it wrong.

With rumors circulating that btc managed to close the month of September positively and will experience a rapid increase, this is a good opportunity so don't be wrong in predicting it or wrong with the rumors circulating about btc, not many people take advantage of this moment to make a profit.

You are speaking a bit vaguely and like a trader and a gambler junder.

We are not talking about trading and/or gambling in this thread, even though surely part of the thread does relate to trying to figure out when there are dips in order to be able to buy on the dip, which is also part of the reason that so many of the participants in this thread seem to have had resorted to ongoingly DCA while not really knowing how to figure out how much of a dip there is going to be, but if they (we) are ongoingly accumulating BTC in these price areas, then in the longer term we are likely going to be setting ourselves up to be in a good position and with more options.. rather than merely considering whether there might be short term profits in October.. .. even at the same time, UPward price moves can be helpful psychologically, even if we are not selling right away because we are likely able to see signs that we are on the right path in terms of both ongoingly HODLing BTC but also in terms of our spending quite a bit of time in accumulating BTC.

You have been a member of the forum for quite a long time @junder (since April 2015), so even if you had been investing a low amount of value (such as $10 per week) into bitcoin, you would have had the potential to have had been in a very good position by now.. more than 8 years after registering on the forum...which would be about $4,400 invested into BTC and nearly  2.81 BTC accumulated. 

So if you did not start to DCAing into BTC in 2015, then you might have started to invest into bitcoin at a later date, and if you have not figured out the value and power of DCA (and or the ongoing buying of BTC and HODLing it), then maybe you better rethink your approach to BTC and your ways of talking about BTC in terms of short term profits..

But hey, whatever, I don't know enough about you, but I can look at your timeline in terms of your registration on the forum and use the charts to project out what a modest DCA into BTC strategy might have done for your finances and perhaps psychology overall if you had been ongoingly accumulating BTC during that time.. and surely there are no real signs that an ongoing accumulation of BTC is not going to continue to be a decently good plan, even if we might not know the future exactly, so if you have not gotten started in DCA and/or ongoingly accumulating BTC, then maybe you better get started sooner rather than later, and stop wasting so much time and energies thinking about short term profits.

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon.

but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point.

As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

Fair enough.  Save some of your dollars for the possible crash then.  No one is suggesting to be buying BTC from what should be your emergency fund. So if you do not have enough money in your emergency fund to buy now, then you better wait it out... I don't have any objections to that kind of a motivation.

You never want to put yourself into a situation in which you have to be selling your BTC at a price that is other than your complete choice.. and likely better to be selling BTC on the way up rather than down.. but if you already reached fuck you status with your BTC then you just sell some BTC whenever you need some additional money as compared to the person who is still in BTC accumulation stages, should not be overly buying if s/he does not have enough certainty in his/her cashflow/expensens and emergency angles to all of that.

[edited out]

[edited out]

Yes, you are both correct, and that is the other reason why more people are beginning to accumulate more BTC. Everyone wants the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket in the due season. We are just in the month of October and sooner the time for the bullrun will arrive.

Yes, it's true that the economy in some localities is not friendly towards its citizens and I see that it is enough reason for investors and those who are not yet an investor to take part in the investment and keep accumulating until the bullish time. Now is the best time for anyone to join the BTC before it's going to be late. Even if the capital is not enough, they should still start with the little that they have.

If you are accumulating BTC for the long term, then you should not be giving too many shits about short term UPpity price movements, except that it confirms your investment into BTC, but if you are not ready to sell yet, then there remains quite a bit of value in just continuing to accumulate BTC and not getting concerned about whether a bull run is coming soon or not.

[GigaBit]

Nobody knows if the price of bitcoin will go fown again. It may or may not as it is hard to predict bitcoin price movement.

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months. It's possible that we'll witness the green candlelight of bitcoin in the month of October. At the very least, it won't be a terrible idea to anticipate that the price of bitcoin will increase in October compared to other months.

King daddy gives no shits about months... so maybe it will go up and maybe it won't.

up or down in the future no one knows, but if the rumors are true that there will be an increase then this is a good opportunity, not apart from that investors or traders must remain vigilant about the news about BTC that will rise or fall, being aware of the news about btc is certainly necessary so as not to predict it wrong.

With rumors circulating that btc managed to close the month of September positively and will experience a rapid increase, this is a good opportunity so don't be wrong in predicting it or wrong with the rumors circulating about btc, not many people take advantage of this moment to make a profit.

Bitcoin being a highly volatile currency, there will always be rumors about it which is usual. By this volatility bitcoin coin trader will be more excited with the price whether they make profit or loss but it is not a concern of a Bitcoin holder those who are waiting for that day of Bitcoin. I don't think it's necessary to consider such market conditions for those who wait until it reaches their desired level. This is a golden opportunity for those who have not yet collected Bitcoin, but those who are true holders of BTC do not have to worry about the temporary increase or decrease in the price of this BTC.
This is where the distinction of a Bitcoin holder is reflected. Those who are worried about the temporary rise and fall of the price of Bitcoin must need to acquire better knowledge of Bitcoin holding.

[Frankolala]

Nobody knows if the price of bitcoin will go fown again. It may or may not as it is hard to predict bitcoin price movement.

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months. It's possible that we'll witness the green candlelight of bitcoin in the month of October. At the very least, it won't be a terrible idea to anticipate that the price of bitcoin will increase in October compared to other months.

King daddy gives no shits about months... so maybe it will go up and maybe it won't.

up or down in the future no one knows, but if the rumors are true that there will be an increase then this is a good opportunity, not apart from that investors or traders must remain vigilant about the news about BTC that will rise or fall, being aware of the news about btc is certainly necessary so as not to predict it wrong.

With rumors circulating that btc managed to close the month of September positively and will experience a rapid increase, this is a good opportunity so don't be wrong in predicting it or wrong with the rumors circulating about btc, not many people take advantage of this moment to make a profit.

Bitcoin being a highly volatile currency, there will always be rumors about it which is usual. By this volatility bitcoin coin trader will be more excited with the price whether they make profit or loss but it is not a concern of a Bitcoin holder those who are waiting for that day of Bitcoin. I don't think it's necessary to consider such market conditions for those who wait until it reaches their desired level. This is a golden opportunity for those who have not yet collected Bitcoin, but those who are true holders of BTC do not have to worry about the temporary increase or decrease in the price of this BTC.
This is where the distinction of a Bitcoin holder is reflected. Those who are worried about the temporary rise and fall of the price of Bitcoin must need to acquire better knowledge of Bitcoin holding.

I don't know why the worries of the little up and down in bitcoin price recently. Someone that is stashing up his bitcoin portfolio don't need to worry himself about what the price of bitcoin is whether if it is moving up or down. Neither does the person needs to bother about the next halving or the bull run. Why I am saying this is that all these thoughts will distract you, and you will lose focus on your goal, because you will listen to people thoughts, and this might mislead you in your bitcoin journey.

Since we plan to be hodlers, the price of bitcoin shouldn't be our priority, rather how we can use the DCA method to accumulate continuously, disregard of bitcoin price. What we should be thinking is to make strategies that will be flexible for us to accumulate at different level of bitcoin price so that you don't stop DCAing, since you haven't acquired the amount of bitcoin that you desire for. Bitcoin price is still at the consolidation price, and one need to use this opportunity widely to keep on accumulating and not to start thinking of little profit because the halving is close or something.

Also, if anyone is waiting for the dip because of recession, you shouldn't also forget that the more you are piling up your fiat currency and preparing for the dips, you should know that your fiat currency is depreciating with time, and you don't know when it the dip will come and for how long that you are going to wait. I will continue with my DCA strategy because I haven't reached my bitcoin target and don't need to sell any of my bitcoin during the bull run.

[flower12]

Is there really a way to use news to predict the price of Bitcoin? Have you tried it before and predicted it correctly through the news? Well, it is obvious you are suggestion panic buying and probably selling too as you will not hesitate to sell when the news does not seem favorable. In all honesty, this is akin to gambling!

Unfortunately, looking at the news to be able to predict Bitcoin price is not really necessary because, by the caption of this thread, we are buying and holding for long. Therefore, our main focus is how to accumulate as many Bitcoin as we can possibly get while being able to hold for long without being compelled to sell haphazardly.

Absolutely not, there is no way to correctly predict Bitcoin price overtime. While news items and technical analysis can provide into market sentiment, but they are far from fool proof. Technical analysis is not a perfect science, it is science of probability that relies on historical trends and patterns, which may not necessarily repeat in future.

The most effective and widely recognized strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin by employing DCA , as frequently discussed here. Additionally opportunistic purchasing during significant dips can further lower average cost of investment.

Based on my experience with DCA, focusing too much on the price tends not to be good for me. Because the current movement is a temporary or short-term movement, while I aim to hold bitcoin in the long term. Maybe this is good because we can buy a lot at the lowest price, but when our goal is long-term then we should focus more on the strategy we are doing.
Accumulating bitcoin with DCA is our goal to be able to benefit when bitcoin shoots back up to reach its previous ATH or even exceed it.
It's a comfort for me when I don't think too much about the current price. Because my goal is not the next week or month, but a long term that does not know when I will achieve my long-term goals.

[Sophokles]

Yes, you are both correct, and that is the other reason why more people are beginning to accumulate more BTC. Everyone wants the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket in the due season. We are just in the month of October and sooner the time for the bullrun will arrive.

Usually bulls appear after 4-5 months of halving. We might not observe much negative until the halving but that doesn't indicate that a bull rally starts within one or two month. We still have few month to accumulate so it will be wise to use this time to accumulate more btc.

It's a comfort for me when I don't think too much about the current price. Because my goal is not the next week or month, but a long term that does not know when I will achieve my long-term goals.

Most investors long term investments ended between bitcoin's previous ATH and the new ATH. Long term words should be used correctly. Holding something for 5 to 10 years can be considered long term. Those who have been holding bitcoin since 2016 or before that are long term holders.

 

[Odohu]

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

Is another full scale recession being expected? Because from present realities, a lot of countries are already in recession and there are those at the brink of depression. Do you think that if a full blown recession happens that Bitcoin will nosedive? I am curious to know your opinion about Bitcoin with respect to global recession.  

Remember that covid19 that destroy global economy, sent several businesses to oblivion yet Bitcoin prevailed.  I have gotten to the point where I see Bitcoin as a safe haven in a world of uncertainty. Coming years will really be exciting for Bitcoin and those of us who are fortunate to embrace it early.

Is there really a way to use news to predict the price of Bitcoin? Have you tried it before and predicted it correctly through the news? Well, it is obvious you are suggestion panic buying and probably selling too as you will not hesitate to sell when the news does not seem favorable. In all honesty, this is akin to gambling!

Unfortunately, looking at the news to be able to predict Bitcoin price is not really necessary because, by the caption of this thread, we are buying and holding for long. Therefore, our main focus is how to accumulate as many Bitcoin as we can possibly get while being able to hold for long without being compelled to sell haphazardly.

Absolutely not, there is no way to correctly predict Bitcoin price overtime. While news items and technical analysis can provide into market sentiment, but they are far from fool proof. Technical analysis is not a perfect science, it is science of probability that relies on historical trends and patterns, which may not necessarily repeat in future.

The most effective and widely recognized strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin by employing DCA , as frequently discussed here. Additionally opportunistic purchasing during significant dips can further lower average cost of investment.

Many people spend too much time and energy on irrelevances when the truth is so glaring. Why will someone think of using abstract things to predict a volatile asset like Bitcoin? Simple analysis of Bitcoin performance over few years ago will show that buying and holding is enough to do the magic, no stress about the news, no sophisticated analysis... just simple buy and hold!

[Roseline492]

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount.

Yeah you have a point but perhaps in most cases economic recession doesn't crash all the market but instead it could only reduce employment rate and money circulation but as someone who has save a huge amount  of money, I don't think diversifying some of your funds to Bitcoin will affect you but perhaps you can divide the money into three places and use one part to accumulate Bitcoin and use the second part for future needs and the remaining for the daily needs, so with this method I see no reason why someone can easily be affected as such leading to selling off your accumulated Bitcoin on discount prices, I don't think diversifying investment to Bitcoin means we should put all our savings on accumulating Bitcoin without a savings that could sustain us through out the recession period.

[Ryu_Ar1]

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months.

To me I don't think there would be any much Bitcoin price movement in these October, one of the things you should understand is that the possibility of Bitcoin repeating a price movement on a particular month is not certain and perhaps if you check very closely you will see that during the times Bitcoin price use to repeat uptrend on the Month of October are mostly when the halving are still in some years ahead so if there was supposed to be any drastic price movement it would have done it earlier before now, so the Bitcoin price has been on a consolidation for sometime now and since we are in the last quarter of the year there is a likelihood that Bitcoin price will still maintain those levels till the halving take place then you can expect Bitcoin price to surpass the ATH, so let's not allowed the psychology or speculation that Bitcoin price normally increase October affect our plans of accumulation.

But if you look at the data that always happens in every October, it is usual for bitcoin to always experience a pretty good increase and most of it is always positive, even though this is not a reference, it can still be a hope and encouragement especially if bitcoin can be more positive because it could be for this October to start the bitcoin rally towards halving.
Halving itself if you look at the current October actually if we count and the benchmark is April it is only 6 months more (not a few years).
But in this case of course we must also be aware that if our target is further away this is only to reassure ourselves that the future will be better for bitcoin not as a stop because in the end we must also be aware that this increase will still be considered a temporary increase.

[JoyMarsha]

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months.

To me I don't think there would be any much Bitcoin price movement in these October, one of the things you should understand is that the possibility of Bitcoin repeating a price movement on a particular month is not certain and perhaps if you check very closely you will see that during the times Bitcoin price use to repeat uptrend on the Month of October are mostly when the halving are still in some years ahead so if there was supposed to be any drastic price movement it would have done it earlier before now, so the Bitcoin price has been on a consolidation for sometime now and since we are in the last quarter of the year there is a likelihood that Bitcoin price will still maintain those levels till the halving take place then you can expect Bitcoin price to surpass the ATH, so let's not allowed the psychology or speculation that Bitcoin price normally increase October affect our plans of accumulation.

When anything occurs more than once, we refer to it as a mistake, but when it occurs more than twice at a regular interval, it develops into a custom.
What I want to say is that, since bitcoin has increased in the previous October months of 2013 - 2022, she will still do the same this year's month of October. A few days back before we entered October month, bitcoin was hovering around $26k+ but today her price has gone from $26k - $27k+. It can still go higher in price as the October month proceeds. Fingers crossed as I expect the price of bitcoin to soar in October as expected. As I wait for that to come to fulfillment, I am not forgetting the target of buying and hodl more bitcoin

[Winterfrost]

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

The truth is that everyone wants Bitcoin to skyrocket immediately to see there accumulated Bitcoin growing, however even without being told, in time to come Bitcoin will surely moon.

but Perhaps if you no a time of Economic recession is coming which we no there could be a serious hardship, lack of money and lack of work, perhaps you could actually utilize the opportunity now while you can by channeling most of your reserve funds on accumulating more Bitcoin because while waiting to no or be sure of the economic recession you could be affected were as Bitcoin price would have gone way up beyond your planning entry point.

As an investor we shouldn't wait to see the impacts of economic recession before diversifying to avoid wrong entry.

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

I will not deny the fact that we are all human, soft and most times weak in making hard decisions. We cant just stay and see those under our care suffer when we know we have the funds to solve that need. No one is certain that Bitcoin will crash and no one is  still certain that it will moon so high. But yes am willing to take the risk even if bitcoin crashes because while I still keep my money its still a risk because inflation may come and my money becomes worthless.

Just a quick reminder, no one believe how Bitcoin survived the crash in 2008. The FTX crash during a bear market seems like one of the worst possible things that could happen to BTC, and we already recovered from it, i dont why we talk about this crash or inflation and all that like its the first time its happening or like it will be the end of Bitcoin Holders. I dont see Bitcoin going off the market any time soon am not exaggerating but i has proven itself repeatedly that is why i trust the system.

[Frankolala]

Do you think that if a full blown recession happens that Bitcoin will nosedive? I am curious to know your opinion about Bitcoin with respect to global recession. 

Who knows if the reccession will affect bitcoin or not. What I now is that there is no form of worst condition that has hit the economy that bitcoin didn't survive. It will only affect it for a short time and after a while there will be correction in the price again.

On the other hand, it might be that bitcoin price will even go up since many big investors will see bitcoin as a store of value for them to use to safe their funds from inflation and this will help bitcoin to flourish. What really matters now to for you to accumulate more bitcoin so that if really that they is a reccessiom, you will not be affected and if the price of bitcoin dips, you can still accumulate more with a discount price because with the look of things, it is only bitcoin inestment that has the vector power to overcome any form of recession at any given time, compare to other assets due to its volatile nature.

It is well-recognized fact that predicting the future price of bitcoin is difficult. But historically speaking, October seems to be a month when the price of a bitcoin tends to rise a little more than in previous months.

To me I don't think there would be any much Bitcoin price movement in these October, one of the things you should understand is that the possibility of Bitcoin repeating a price movement on a particular month is not certain and perhaps if you check very closely you will see that during the times Bitcoin price use to repeat uptrend on the Month of October are mostly when the halving are still in some years ahead so if there was supposed to be any drastic price movement it would have done it earlier before now, so the Bitcoin price has been on a consolidation for sometime now and since we are in the last quarter of the year there is a likelihood that Bitcoin price will still maintain those levels till the halving take place then you can expect Bitcoin price to surpass the ATH, so let's not allowed the psychology or speculation that Bitcoin price normally increase October affect our plans of accumulation.

When anything occurs more than once, we refer to it as a mistake, but when it occurs more than twice at a regular interval, it develops into a custom.
What I want to say is that, since bitcoin has increased in the previous October months of 2013 - 2022, she will still do the same this year's month of October. A few days back before we entered October month, bitcoin was hovering around $26k+ but today her price has gone from $26k - $27k+. It can still go higher in price as the October month proceeds. Fingers crossed as I expect the price of bitcoin to soar in October as expected. As I wait for that to come to fulfillment, I am not forgetting the target of buying and hodl more bitcoin

Past records shouldn't be what we are using as facts, but it is there to give us an insight of what might likely happen and not a gaurantee. This is why you don't need to bother about which month does bitcoin price go up or down when we are trying to grow our bitcoin portfolio, when you are not planning to sell your coins, because if you keep looking at what month it will be, you might be tempted to sell some and take little profit, if history says that the next month the price of bitcoin will go down. This will completely kill your plans toward your bitcoin base on wrong decisions made at the wrong time. If you are planning not to sell, then the price movement should bother you but to make you strong on hodli.

[Samlucky O]

I'll
OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

Is another full scale recession being expected? Because from present realities, a lot of countries are already in recession and there are those at the brink of depression. Do you think that if a full blown recession happens that Bitcoin will nosedive? I am curious to know your opinion about Bitcoin with respect to global recession.  

Remember that covid19 that destroy global economy, sent se to oblivion yet Bitcoin prevailed.  I have gotten to the point where I see Bitcoin as a safe haven in a world of uncertainty. Coming years will really be exciting for Bitcoin and those of us who are fortunate to embrace it early.

Sincerely speaking, in all what you said I love this statement %100. Indeed Bitcoin is a safe heaven in a world of uncertainty@odohu. During the time of covid19, I thought of many things. Like is this end? After the pandemic alot of business crumbled and inflation arise. Many people fell and never rise again. only the Bitcoin investors stood against all odds. So that made me to become more inquisitive and curious about Bitcoin ontill I got the information I needed. I believe that with this, I have pledge on Bitcoin have decided to always buy little by little no matter how small it is. Because if I Chanel all my efforts on Bitcoin I believe I will never regret till I die.

Is there really a way to use news to predict the price of Bitcoin? Have you tried it before and predicted it correctly through the news? Well, it is obvious you are suggestion panic buying and probably selling too as you will not hesitate to sell when the news does not seem favorable. In all honesty, this is akin to gambling!

Unfortunately, looking at the news to be able to predict Bitcoin price is not really necessary because, by the caption of this thread, we are buying and holding for long. Therefore, our main focus is how to accumulate as many Bitcoin as we can possibly get while being able to hold for long without being compelled to sell haphazardly.

Absolutely not, there is no way to correctly predict Bitcoin price overtime. While news items and technical analysis can provide into market sentiment, but they are far from fool proof. Technical analysis is not a perfect science, it is science of probability that relies on historical trends and patterns, which may not necessarily repeat in future.

The most effective and widely recognized strategy is to accumulate Bitcoin by employing DCA , as frequently discussed here. Additionally opportunistic purchasing during significant dips can further lower average cost of investment.

Many people spend too much time and energy on irrelevances when the truth is so glaring Why will someone think of using abstract things to predict a volatile asset like Bitcoin?. Simple analysis of Bitcoin performance over few years ago will show that buying and holding is enough to do the magic, no stress about the news, no sophisticated analysis... just simple buy and hold!

It takes a man to loose alot of future, before making it to the right path. Many people are anguishing in dark path, thinking dey have been working the right path. The time you wake up is your morning. So I believe people will get to know the power of Bitcoin and what the future holds for us.

[Sayeds56]

Past records shouldn't be what we are using as facts, but it is there to give us an insight of what might likely happen and not a gaurantee. This is why you don't need to bother about which month does bitcoin price go up or down when we are trying to grow our bitcoin portfolio, when you are not planning to sell your coins, because if you keep looking at what month it will be, you might be tempted to sell some and take little profit, if history says that the next month the price of bitcoin will go down. This will completely kill your plans toward your bitcoin base on wrong decisions made at the wrong time. If you are planning not to sell, then the price movement should bother you but to make you strong on hodli.

Your strategy to emphasize on buy and hold for long term when it comes to Bitcoin and ignore short term noise is generally considered a sound and effective approach. However, it is also important to remain patient and refrain from monitoring daily market prices and charts. Continuously observing these fluctuations can lead to emotional stress and may tempt us to make impulsive decision that deviate from long term financial goals.

[Wind_FURY]

[edited out]

I was merely making a point that we should ask, "who's lying" or who got it wrong? The market? Or the fundamentals? Although everything in my mind wants Bitcoin to surge to $50,000, logically, it says that because of the tightening and the restrictive monetary policies, there might be a recession coming. I don't expect Bitcoin to surge during a recession when people have no jobs and no savings.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Define "surge."  What if bitcoin does not go down as much as some other assets?

You seem to be ongoingly committing the same error as a lot of people who do not seem to either understand bitcoin or to be able to look at the charts.

In other words, even if we don't know exactly what bitcoin is going to do in various scenarios, we should not be presuming bitcoin to be correlated to traditional assets or to macro factors that attempt to manipulate the market..

Another thing is that even though UPpity is always a possibility and a probability, we should not be basing our finances and psychology on that, while at the same time we should continue to prepare for BTC prices to go in either direction, which means that you better not be disappointed when you end up holding onto more fiat than you wished that you had held merely based on your considerations of various downity scenarios for the BTC price that might not end up playing out. just because a lot of smart people are talking about those various doom and gloom scenarios.

It's not about me. I was merely asking a question. The fundamentals are projecting that there could be a recession/crisis and therefore a possbility of a crash of all markets because there's simply less and less money in the system caused by rate hikes and QT.

BUT all we see is markets are not reacting in the way how the fundemantals says it should. One of them is probably "lying". Who? The fundamentals or the markets?

[edited out]

They're not entirely commentaries, those are questions. I'm merely asking for your and everyone's opinions. I don't want to hear another "who the hell knows"? This is not about "when to buy or what price to buy". I just want a discussion, it doesn't matter if we agree or disagree, but we can still learn from each other.

Yeah.. but part of the discussion and the likely correct answers in terms of personal preparations should be to set yourself up for either price direction, which means that we don't really know with any kind of certainty, and we never did.. and that is why we should be trying to set ourselves up  for either price direction.. whether you want to hear it or not. 

Don't get me wrong.. we have already seen historically that you can get rich as fuck by merely setting some value aside and putting it into bitcoin (which is preparations for UP), and the UP might not even need to be very large in order for you to profit, and the same is likely going to continue to be true - even though there are no guarantees of anything, so part of my own ongoing message remains to consider to continue to stack your sats so that you are ongoingly prepared for UP, whether it is going to happen for sure or not, and at the same time you can have some value on the side to buy in case BTC dips, but that does not mean that you should not ONGOINGLY be buying, unless you already happen to have had reached your accumulation goal.. which does not seem to be the case with you, Wind_FURY..... You seem to be largely just getting greedy and expecting BTC prices to go down further in order that you can accumulate an additional 0.000349451 BTC.. which is likely a BIG so fucking what, especially if the BTC price goes up rather than down and then you do not accumulate any BTC merely because you thought that you might be able to get more and you were wanting people to agree with your decision.

And, even if you end up being correct in terms of the BTC price going down before up or getting caught in some further stagnation, it still does not mean that you or anyone else should be fucking around with trying to get lower BTC prices when we are still below the 200-week moving average (which is currently right below $28k).

But hey, whatever, you do what you like in terms of your ongoingly wanting to likely overly prepare ur lil selfie for DOWNity scenarios and put a lot of weight on that.. and then whether they happen or not, you are likely largely gambling with such a tactic.. because I doubt that DOWNity is as clear as you are making it out to be or the other various macro pundits.. but whatever, you do you.

I'm not saying you're wrong in your approach in bidding/buying Bitcoin, I'm just asking for everyone's opinions/thoughts/insights in the current macro-economic situation and its market possibilities.

OK, but if we plebs buy Bitcoin NOW, and the recession does come and crashes all the markets, crashes the job market, crashes banks, depletes our savings, then I believe for most of us we will be forced to sell our Bitcoins at a discount. It's true especially to those people who have families to support/mouths to feed.

Perhaps many of us are hesitant to admit it, but the money printer and the government spending were probably the main catalysts of 2020's surge.

Is another full scale recession being expected? Because from present realities, a lot of countries are already in recession and there are those at the brink of depression.

I believe not yet. What are the unemployment reports in those countries? Has unemployment surged? Because if it's surging, then the people should hope that inflation in their regions are low. Because if it's high, their central banks can't make a quick pivot to QE and lower interest rates to stimulate the economy.

Do you think that if a full blown recession happens that Bitcoin will nosedive? I am curious to know your opinion about Bitcoin with respect to global recession. 

Remember that covid19 that destroy global economy, sent several businesses to oblivion yet Bitcoin prevailed.  I have gotten to the point where I see Bitcoin as a safe haven in a world of uncertainty. Coming years will really be exciting for Bitcoin and those of us who are fortunate to embrace it early.

Because inflation was low during 2020 and the Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks around the world lowered rates, then turned on the money printers at maximum speed/increased government borrowing and spending. They can't do that in a high-inflation environment which we currently have. Doing that would cause hyperinflation.

[Salahmu]

Who knows if the reccession will affect bitcoin or not. What I now is that there is no form of worst condition that has hit the economy that bitcoin didn't survive. It will only affect it for a short time and after a while there will be correction in the price again.

Normally i see no reason why economic recession can affect Bitcoin in anyway, perhaps have we forgotten what economic recession is all about? of course during economic recession there used to be lack of money, inability for people to work and earn money which will result to lack of money in circulation but most of the people who has save a lot of money tend to diversify there funds to Bitcoin because going into Bitcoin could be there only chance to remain financially stable when the recession will come to an end, so to me economic recession doesn't affect Bitcoin but instead it increases the demand for Bitcoin were as everybody will channel most of there funds to Bitcoin as the best investment to diversify all there money to.

[Dictator69]

I am describing with vagueness and with hypothetical on-purpose, and I think that the overall point is that there are a variety of ways that mistakes can be made - e....................... such as I had some coins on BTC-E in 2016/2017 and then also with Bitfinex in 2016, and some of the direct transactions that I made had some losses involved with coins not going through, wrong amounts, sometimes scandalous (or opportunistic behaviors of others... so maybe some of my own mistakes might be framed as having had gotten involved at all, even though there is some value that comes through having experiences, and surely, there could be worse mistakes that involve buying and selling behaviors.. or other kinds of portfolio management that might come from transacting and then figuring out whether and when replacement might need to occur.. which I am not even going to suggest to have had been day-trading).

Feel sorry to hear that you lost your amount in Bitfinex and in BTC-E. I did not know about any BTC-E exchange but now I do know about it, I am confused to read that, it was a Russian exchange/trading platform then why did they place or choose the servers located in the USA? Well, that's another story. And you do have good points that, there would be worse possible incomes from which you have been saved by luck and with experience. We all learn from such mistakes.

But I am trying to not make those mistakes, instead, I'll learn it from the wounded lion (legendries) like you. 

the BTC portfolio had doubled in value, so 100% profits, and so if we are looking at 2017 and 2018 and BTC prices thereafter, the 20 BTC continued to stay above the $20k invested, ...............and sure there could be whining about "I could have had 40 BTC, but wha wha wha, I only have 20 BTC", but what good is that going to do?..

Maybe through the next 6-7 years, the BTC holdings goes from 20 BTC to 25 BTC, and maybe more value is injected during that time (maybe another $40k-$60k in order to get 5 more BTC?.. or maybe ONLY an additional $5k is injected to get from 20 BTC to 25 BTC that keeps the average cost per BTC to remain at $1k-ish), but there also could be thoughts that "I am never going to get back to 40 BTC," but where was the "emergency" exactly?  

Well, that's human nature to whine about the losses and profits which was not there. I mean, we should accept our fate and be happy with what we have but there will always remain a feeling of, I had it. We can overcome this feeling by controlling our nerves and being happy with what we have and how to move forward with that. Of course, saying it seems easy but not for those who have to follow it.

Sure a short time during the losses of going down from 40 BTC to 20 BTC, there could have been feelings of loss and emergency.. but there also could be feelings of futility in trying to get the value of the lost 20 BTC back or the waste of time and energy to even think about getting back 20 lost BTC,

You are right, the emergency situation did have a bad impact on mental health and the victim is forced to take bold actions that he doesn't want to. Like he can sell his remaining 20 BTC to face the emergency state. Or some part of it. However he focused on increasing that number of BTC from 20 to 25 BTC. And even in that scenario if he still loses those 5 BTC then he will definitely be broken by heart.

He must have lost hope and have no motivation, but the profits will encourage him.

No problem... Just needing to remember what we were talking about...

Well, the funny thing is, I am still replying late, and just to remind you, now we are talking about emergency funds and the mistakes that leads a man to make decisions that cost them a lot in the future.

..and yeah, of course, some mistakes are worse than others and more difficult to recover from than others... so there could be some instances in which any of us might feel that we are in a short-term emergency status, but hopefully, we are able to get into a state in which we are NOT in an emergency status for any kind of period of time that last for than a few months .. ........... but my own circumstances never did rise to that level of emergency status,

I am happy that you never faced such emergency situations and always have an alternative source of income to deal with the lose and the emotional pressure on yourself that you will get from the value of the loss. This indicates that a person with no job or source of income should not start their journey in BTC until they have some 1 or 2 sources of income. Because that's the only way he can survive the hits of the market or hits from scams.

Do I buy a brand new laptop or do I buy a used one or do I repair my current one, and sure sometimes even with the laptop there can be considerable differences in prices, yet there might not be enough utility to spend $6k on a laptop versus spending $600, and sure it would be nice to have......................

That's a progressive mindset, I have this mindset. I always try to think before making investment or buying things especially. Because if we buy things that become a liability later and might cost us, like what if that $6k worth laptop is damaged and, on its repair, I have to spend more money because the laptop is expensive. Overall, my cost will increase my expectations, so I have to play under the sources I have.

I might even decide to put it in my investment ideas thread.. but yeah, I haven't posted it yet.

Yeah you shared this link before I have bookmarked it already and will read it.

PS: to be honest, I got diverted when I see your big replies and my energy just said, do not read it just read other threads. Hehe. I am not saying anything bad about your post just telling the reason of the late reply on this post. Today, I was free and thought that I should read your reply in full and reply to it.

[348Judah]

Past records shouldn't be what we are using as facts, but it is there to give us an insight of what might likely happen and not a gaurantee. This is why you don't need to bother about which month does bitcoin price go up or down when we are trying to grow our bitcoin portfolio, when you are not planning to sell your coins, because if you keep looking at what month it will be, you might be tempted to sell some and take little profit, if history says that the next month the price of bitcoin will go down. This will completely kill your plans toward your bitcoin base on wrong decisions made at the wrong time. If you are planning not to sell, then the price movement should bother you but to make you strong on hodli.

Your strategy to emphasize on buy and hold for long term when it comes to Bitcoin and ignore short term noise is generally considered a sound and effective approach. However, it is also important to remain patient and refrain from monitoring daily market prices and charts. Continuously observing these fluctuations can lead to emotional stress and may tempt us to make impulsive decision that deviate from long term financial goals.

You should agrre with me that everything that has an advantage also has its disadvantages, we cannot stop from embracing daily speculations on bitcoin market because that's one of the quality that shows we are traders or investors, but we should apply caution not to get fully carried away with the illusion from what we do and get the wrong result, we can also as well work by the past history on bitcoin, compare each season from you each other, work inline with them and creates time to also develope our own personal foresights through the research we make, which is not the reason why we should depend on single entry to get our best results when making an investment, there are times we have to be dynamic and makes it appears more of diversification in techniques used to achieve the maximum result.