The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?
If the current difficulty stands in April miners need 40 to 50 k price .
the top of the line s21 does 200 th and burns 3.5 kwatts
so 200 x 0.061 = 12.20 usd earned daily
3.5 kwatts is 80 kwatts a day . 4 cent power means $3.20 cost
So the miner is fine except that he just paid about 4000 to get the machine this month.
at the ½ ing that machine earns 6.10 and burns $3.20. so if he managed to have all top of the line gear right now he has to buy all new machines which are not in stock.
He could get all s19xp for 3200 right now.
they earn 8.40 a day and burn 3.20
at ½ ing they earn 4.2 a day and burn 3.20 very border line.
In both cases top of the line gear that is costly is needed now as I type.
standard gear is s19j pro
earns 6.40 burns 3.20 okay now
at ½ ing
earns 3.20 burns 3.2 no good for the almost any miner
Since most gear is 100th at 3.2k watts maybe 250-300eh at current price it will lose for almost every miner in the world.
the long term power cost for profit needed has been six cent power.
i am using 4 cent numbers so I am extra conservative.
basically if we hit the ½ ing at 27-32k and stay there for two months it will be a first.
it is why I look more at 2015 to 2016 mining relief rally to be done from 2023 to 2024.
which means 40-50k in march/ april 2024
this is like t/a. but based on mining numbers. it is a bit more accurate then t/a as it is less subject to interpretation.
but in 2019 to 2020 it did not happen so i toss it due to covid .
i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
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