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Incidentally, it's worth noting there's often a dip at the weekends, which could push us firmly under 500 for a while.
Someone else might be able to provide data on what money is waiting to snap up cheap coins at different prices on the exchanges and so where the support might be.
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Not bashing anyone, but this is worse than gambling, because families lose out when you cash in, not a casino. Every extra piece of pie is on that came off someone elses plate.
Families? The average bitcoin user is a 20-something upper-middle class white libertarian male with money to lose. There are also these wealthy Chinese guys who pumped money into the market in the fall, and the venture capital firms and investment trusts. I don't think there is anyone here using bitcoin to try to feed their family. Everyone here is in the same game - to try to get as much money as possible, and came into it with the knowledge that their entire capital is at risk at all times. Almost nobody 'invests' in bitcoin just to help the technology - to do that they USE bitcoin, write code, or create services for it. Your thinking is actually reflecting that of a ponzi scheme. "If you remove money, we lose". If bitcoin price was actually supported by its underlying economy, then people 'removing money' shouldn't be a problem. +[insert large number here] You don't avoid selling shares, thereby depriving your family, so that someone else enjoys an artificially high price, that can't be realised until they sell anyway... |
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This thing is here to stay. Up, down, side-to-side, this thing is happening. I am truly fascinated to be a part of a global phenomenon.
Damn straight. |
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I don't know why u get such pleasure from others losing money. I don't think that is a good thing that people who sold at a bad time took a hit lol but hey that is just me carry on.
Well, we're back at 550 so don't call it just yet. We never did test 500 properly and spent just a few hours below in that flash crash to 400. I'd expect to see a bit more activity in the low 500s and even the odd dip lower to make sure (pessimistic but possible) before real confidence is reestablished. You'll get no argument from me. I tend to agree with your "calls" if I may and I can see that happening in the coming days/weeks. Would be nice to see some folks get back in and regain some lost faith so to speak. I don't see these "calls" as much more than common sense at best. The last "bottom" was too quick and the bounce too strong. 500 seems about right for various reasons that others are more qualified to talk about. Even then, I'm not sure it might not be too optimistic. We're back under 500 for the third (?) time, perhaps only briefly but we'll see. Regardless, I'm a HODLER since I get paid my bitcoins little and often. Though if we dip under 450 then the proportion I've put aside to pay tax will come back into play. Time will tell whether that was smart or dumb... |
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Today opened at 580 so it's not impossible. Seems unlikely but let's see what THE MACHINE says (Person of Interest, anyone?).
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My neural network prediction project ( http://www.btcpredictions.com/) is predicting a pretty decent sized climb over the next 24 hours, and I'm inclined to believe that it will be correct about this. Wow, yes it does! Your chance to shine (no pressure...). Good luck! |
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However, yesterday was looking promising, but then the self-prescribed day-traders and weak hands did what they do.
How so? Nothing of particular interest happened yesterday did it - no major upward movements? Green candle for one, however from what limited time I was able to actively watch the market it appeared as though there was a slow climb in price despite a constant influx of sell orders. Further, the wall @<$600 was bolstered with a mob of asks which didn't deter the buying. It seemed apparant watching the cumulative depth at the $650 and $700 price points. Cool, thanks. Never ask a stupid question, never learn anything new. I figure we need to properly establish 500 as a baseline before anything interesting (upwards, anyway) happens. |
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However, yesterday was looking promising, but then the self-prescribed day-traders and weak hands did what they do.
How so? Nothing of particular interest happened yesterday did it - no major upward movements? |
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Price drop means a bunch of hands sold. Does not necessarily correlate to news headlines. How does your logic look a few hours ago in the $580 range?
My logic? Sorry, not sure I understand the question. My point was that bitcoin has been seriously overvalued and now people are playing catch up. And I think that 500 is a key confidence level to establish or otherwise. |
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The smart people are getting out as high as they can.
Smart people get in and hodl. It's just a correction. Look at price movements in the past. Volatility is constantly decreasing. Movements of 10-20% are nothing. Yup. It's called a correction for a reason. It's a necessary step on the way to rehab after the bubble, Gox and FUD. No point fighting it. |
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I don't know why u get such pleasure from others losing money. I don't think that is a good thing that people who sold at a bad time took a hit lol but hey that is just me carry on.
Well, we're back at 550 so don't call it just yet. We never did test 500 properly and spent just a few hours below in that flash crash to 400. I'd expect to see a bit more activity in the low 500s and even the odd dip lower to make sure (pessimistic but possible) before real confidence is reestablished. |
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Other 'old format' wallets discovered with surprise bitcoins in.
More likely: 'old format' bonus 200,000 was MK's secret stash that he's been putting away a bit at a time to cover Gox's immense losses due to various hacks, incompetence and Frappucino benders over the years. Wasn't going too badly, but then the price dropped and he got caught before he could get the rest.
Most likely: they were his retirement fund.
Whatever, those 200,000 weren't a surprise to Karp. No way do you just forget you had that amount of money.
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Just curious - on the 20-day prediction the price drops to $556 on 27/3 (two days time) but this doesn't happen on the 5-day prediction. Is this a bug or an artefact of the way they are calculated?
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Cassius - I think if it just tried to predict up or down that it would be very accurate. I would guess that it would be right at least like 90% of the time, but I'm just speculating.
That's what I figured. And 90% is a lot better than 50%, which is roughly what you've otherwise got. Whilst that's not so much use on the day-to-day level due to the relatively small fluctuations, it is on the scale of a month. |
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 Even 8% average error gives a solid UP from here. Suggest we return in 1/5/20 days to evaluate... Hmm.. I wonder what the reliability is in very basic up/down terms. That would be cool, giving a 20-day bull/bear prediction that had a strong chance of accuracy. |
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That would be cool - especially if the lines converged as it learned with each passing week.
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Cassius - I'm not sure what happens because I don't actually see the predictions, but maybe I'll alter it so that I can. That would be interesting to see. I have a feeling it would predict very mild spikes and crashes at certain times but nothing to the same magnitude as the actual fluctuations.
segeln - I did it because I thought it would be interesting to see and other people had expressed interest in seeing it as well. I will definitely work on having it update more often too, don't worry xD
Ah, I figured long-term previous data had been used to 'teach' the software. Again, would be interesting to see if the dips were predicted, just less severe (which might make sense, as you suggest) - at which point, maybe there would be a fix to increase volatility... who knows. |
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Out of interest, what happens when you back-test with historical data? Specifically, does it predict the big dips and flash crashes as well as the trend? And do long long-term forecasts roughly stick to the exponential trend? It would be interesting to find out!
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I've got to say I'm curious to know what will happen at the end of the year when big money starts to get access. Second Market retail investors, maybe Winklevii ETF, who knows what else.
It's probably priced in already. No, the hope of it - or some of the hope - might be priced in by small investors. The real money can't be, because it hasn't happened yet. Potentially lots of regular-Joe investors who want to buy bitcoins but are scared of unregulated exchanges doing it this way. We won't know how many until we get there. But it cannot be priced in, because this is a new tranche of money from a new demographic that doesn't currently have/want access to bitcoin. That's how I see it, anyway. Tell me why I'm wrong (in a helpful Socratic-method kind of way, ideally, rather than inane trolling, but I'll take what I can get). |
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