If Bitcoin had 663m users like Skype and if each user kept $700 in cash balances
I consider myself an optimist concerning Bitcoin. But this is too optimistic even for me. You can't compare with Skype like that. It's pretty easy to create a Skype account, and most important, there's no commitment in doing so: you don't have to spend a penny. Putting ~$700 on this "weird new technology" though, it's a whole different thing. It would probably take more than a decade to get that kind of penetration with bitcoin, and I think that's being overly optimistic. Also, I expect by that time the bitcoin idea will have evolved a better system. |
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Appears the bubble finally popped.
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after those who sold into the rally get over their initial euphoria and get a strong visceral sensation
that the dollar ain't what it used to be.
I doubt that there will be much panic buying because of reward halfing.
What counts is what the ASICS owners do with their coins.
My mindset has always been, if I mined, I'd like to save all the coins, but I'd need to sell a portion to pay for the electricity anyway, so I probably would have sold more than necessary. But now with the electrical costs being so low, I can afford to take whatever meager amount I mine and just save it all away. I suspect that, in general, ASICs miners will be doing far more saving than GPU miners do. +1 And perhaps GPU miners will have to close shop or find alternatives to keep mining. LTC? |
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I think that by next month, it is very possible that we may never see Bitcoin worth single digits again...
Nah, it'll be worth single digits into next year. |
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Quick! Everyone out of the pool.
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Maybe we'll finally test $6 and then $5 again.  |
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Every asset has an exchange rate with every other asset. It is impossible to prevent this phenomenon.
Let's assume nobody traded BTC for USD. We'd still have an exchange rate between BTC and a loaf of bread. Perhaps 1btc = 3 loaves of bread. Of course, we also know that 1 loaf of bread = $3.50. And then POOF there is now, automatically, an exchange rate between BTC and USD, even though we didn't start with one. The exchange rate in this case becomes 0.33 btc = $3.50
So the reason BTC is commonly priced in terms of USD, is because USD is the most purchased commodity with BTC. This should be expected, since both are money, and monies are those things which are the most commonly purchased goods in a society.
tl;dr- It's impossible to prevent an exchange rate from occuring between any two goods on earth.
I will offer you 10 chickens for your 3 hogs. You know you're proving his point, right? |
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Can't it just be itself and worth what people would make it worth? I know I'm not explaining myself correctly probably. Like what is the real benefit of bitcoin over the dollar? It is not backed or insured....is it just the "idea" of having an underground money? It is not like I can go out food shopping and pay with bitcoin. I'm just curious...what people have to say.
Ok. Say I don't have any bitcoins. I also don't want to mine for them. How can I get them? I suggest that there is no way to answer this question that doesn't imply a BTC to USD (or EUR, etc.) exchange rate. I perform coding services for BTC. Cool, I pay you 1BTC per 1000hr coding work. OK? No? Why? Oh, exchange rate again. lol |
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Can't it just be itself and worth what people would make it worth? I know I'm not explaining myself correctly probably. Like what is the real benefit of bitcoin over the dollar? It is not backed or insured....is it just the "idea" of having an underground money? It is not like I can go out food shopping and pay with bitcoin. I'm just curious...what people have to say.
Ok. Say I don't have any bitcoins. I also don't want to mine for them. How can I get them? I suggest that there is no way to answer this question that doesn't imply a BTC to USD (or EUR, etc.) exchange rate. Edit: I see evoorhees beat me to it. |
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I still have yet to see an analysis that picks a random address from the blockchain and successfully identifies its owner by name.
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I am consistently inspired by the brilliance of many people working in this community. It is humbling and an honor to be part of this with you. The time, dedication, and mental acumen invested in this project is not less than epic.
Sincere gratitude to you all.
-Erik
+1 |
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I hope so too!
It would be awesome to have a business like DreamHost accept Bitcoin! Hell yes! I'm already a DreamHost customer. Glad you've joined the conversation, Josh. |
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We probably just saw it begin and end. I still think there's a good chance the block reward change negatively affects price.
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I can't speak on the black market number because most measurements of the black market are very difficult to verify. However we can measure worldwide GDP and the supply and demand for currencies presently, and can represent them in USD.
If all 21 million Bitcoins were in circulation (which they are not, and over a million may simply be "lost") today, and only 1% of the World's GDP transferred through Bitcoin, the value of a single Bitcoin would be ~$2200/coin. These are using all the most conservative estimates, because we're obviously not at 21 million Bitcoin, and we're probably still a long way from 1% World GDP, but I do think that target is attainable in the next year, and, given the success of Silk Road, could be attainable within one year, we just can't measure it as legitimate world trade.
Wow. If you sincerely believe that's attainable and likely, then I hope you're the one buying lots of bitcoins right now. Also, I'll sell you all my bitcoins right now for $100/BTC so you can still make an absurd profit. |
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now think for a minute how much would 10millions coins (all the bitcoin) go for on this market 100million, or 1 billion?  There is no such thing as buying the whole market. Nobody has that much money because the price will just go up infinitely. I certainly wouldn't be selling all my coins no matter what the price is and I think that there would be others who would keep some as well. As bearish as I am and remain, I've still got a nice stash of bitcoins in offline storage that intend to keep forever, even though recent price movements have been tempting me to sell. |
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WTF is a 'super fake wall'...
Plenty of people have {BTC}40,000 and could have sold into him instantly... the owner or owners of that and every wall are risking money.
It's likely controlled by a bot that will remove it instantly if too many coins are sold. It is my understanding that most of the walls are like that. Someone MIGHT dump 40K in a sec, but I doubt that highly as that would cost a lot and crash the market while you are trying to sell your coins. Hence why they are disappearing/moving all the time and why I and many others do not rely on them for analysis. Yesterday pirate did dump 10s of thousands of coins. |
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I really want to say that Pirate is behind a lot of the chaos today.
You weren't on IRC last night were you? |
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The manipulation is created by everyone who has money with pirate. FYI.
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goin' back to 8.2, dont worry bro!
Pfff, $8.2? Look at the depth once that bidwall is gone. We're going below $8.00. |
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bid wall just pushed his position up to $9
This is an unbelievably expensive attempt to push the market up. |
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